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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    Yeah but SECOND PERCENTILE jumps? I've never played a single organized sport and I bet I could react better to flyballs. f***, Jordumb Walker has hit enough flyballs in his career to know how the ball moves.
  2. Laika
    I actually think Cody Bellinger having a good year is bad for baseball. The game needs to move on from has-beens like him more quickly. Just better for fan psyche and promotions and whatnot.
  3. Laika
    Yeah but do you think Chapman or Donaldson in their 20s are going to go to a corner outfield spot and be f***ing SECOND PERCENTILE at reading balls? That's the whole point. I can buy that certain players might be just okay/average at reading flyballs but great at reacting to grounders to third, or vice versa. But I have a hard time imagining the brain of a player who is ALMOST THE WORST INSTINCTIVE OUTFIELDER IN BASEBALL being average or better at 3B reactions.
  4. Laika
    But it's just a baseball instincts question. It's sort of the same skill. Not exactly but I bet it's highly correlated.
  5. Laika
    Not compared to prior versions of Cody Bellinger actually has the highest CF% of his career and the lowest Pull% since his rookie season (per the FG batted ball s***. statcast looks a bit different)
  6. Laika
    I know it's a completely different read but if a guy has a 2nd percentile jump in the outfield, I would expect him to have well below average reaction times at 3B. So he might scout okay because the arm is a cannon and the sprint speed is above average, and his hands might be fine, but I'd still expect him to suck at 3B. But, maybe not as bad as in the OF.
  7. Laika
    Yeah the Os could trade 3 of their top 10 prospects, all being bats, and still be mostly fine.
  8. Laika
    They are set up well for a window of contention. Keller controllable through 2025 and Bednar through 2026... everyone else of significance is controllable through 2028 at least. About $35M coming off the books this offseason to re-load on short term free agent veterans.
  9. Laika
    Pairing Manoah with Ryu or Kikuchi in a piggy-back might be effective. You get to switch sides and looks on the other team after 3 or 4 innings... From a RHP with no idea where anything is going to a LHP throwing 87 with pinpoint command. Or from a LHP with no idea where anything is going but good stuff, to a RHP with no idea where anything is going and mediocre stuff.
  10. Laika
    7.9% LD rate is so low. Everything he hit in 2023 was either straight up or straight down, haha. Not sustainable at all but hilarious. 36 GB 34 FB 6 LD 3 IFFB hahahaha tough to watch
  11. Laika
    oof. would be selling way low on him.
  12. Laika
    The season should get really fun now. Every series is like a playoff series. The standings are too competitive to afford more than maybe one mediocre/bad stretch. The division is winnable. Jays are currently 14% chance to win division and 78% to make the playoffs...
  13. Laika
    Really can't see Kikuchi having any value. He's no longer looking like a bad contract but still a far cry from an asset
  14. Laika
    lmao at the idea of Brown and Joyce Lewis being close in value Lewis is 24 going on 40 dude has had five knee replacements, is bald, probably has cataracts...
  15. Laika
    Maybe just bringing in an old flyball daddy to show Vlad how to train to hit homers
  16. Laika
    Will they be fine? They still need to win in the playoffs. They better hope McClanahan, Glasnow, and Bradley remain healthy and effective until then. If they lose two of them, then they need Eflin to be an Ace and they need to win bullpen games in the postseason. Go Rays Go! This happens all the time with their glass cannon SP corps.
  17. Laika
    Gross
  18. Laika
    For specific players or in general? In general, yes. That's literally what the positional adjustments in WAR are based on. Actual data from players who played multiple positions or moved positions. For specific players you would use that value adjustment as your starting point / assumption but it might not be true based on player characteristics. Like, a 2B should in theory be just as good at 3B but if they don't have the arm or the reflexes they might not be.
  19. Laika
    the replacement level C who can catch at an MLB level are like, 60 wRC+ hitters the replacement level 1B who can play 1B at an MLB level is like, a 100 wRC+ hitter
  20. Laika
    No, because competent defensive catchers are scarce. Competent defensive 1B are not scarce.
  21. Laika
    The most important part of this is recognizing that it's an economic question, haha.
  22. Laika
    Why not though? Players can hit .300 in a season and .250 the next year. Defense might be subject to similar year to year variations as other skills. The league changes, peers change, team positioning changes... players get slower...
  23. Laika
    It's an economic question. connorp doesn't get it and never will but that's okay because he works in hospitality, and not economics or finance. Hopefully LetTheBallFly works with his hands or is going into nursing or something overly practical.
  24. Laika
    And there you have it. Straight from the Tiger's mouth. If you think WAR is unfair to Vlad you can go ahead and add 0.2 WAR or so to his seasonal total, if you want. But it doesn't make sense to disregard the entire institution of defensive metrics. Don't throw the baby out with the bath water.
  25. Laika
    I think his question is something like: Has any attempt been made to quantify and value the small but repetitive contributions that are particular to 1B defense? Things like picks and scoops, catch radius (some are "bigger targets"), success rate on the complex plays involving pitcher coverage, and so forth. Related question: Is it possible that first baseman in general are undervalued because defensive statistics may ignore some of the above because the numbers are hard to figure out? Related question: Is it possible that GOOD defensive first baseman in particular are undervalued for this reason?
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