BTS

I'd try to get a different piece than Jones and take the Chourio/Neto package.

Just saw on the Padres broadcast that Harper hasn't homered in 36 games.

Faaaaack

Most teams at lest colour match. This is hideous.

Really appreciate all of the insights you’re dropping here, Mr. Tango.

1. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles Why he’ll succeed: Elite age-relative damage, swing decisions, and bat-to-ball from a plus defensive shortstop. A 7-hit, 6-power shortstop who adds a bunch more in on base and defense is a superstar, and that’s not even Holliday’s true upside. He’s already in Double-A the year after being drafted out of high school. Can someone stop the Orioles from getting away with this over and over and over and over again already? Why he might fail: Yeah, we’ve got almost nothing here. If you really need something to nitpick, Holliday’s top-end exit velos are not at “future superstar power hitter” levels, so he might never hit 40 homers. 2. Junior Caminero, 3B/SS, Tampa Bay Rays Why he’ll succeed: He keeps freakin’ crushing the ball. The Rays got Caminero—a six-figure international signing who had interesting DSL Trackman data but was still mostly unknown to scouts—in a 40-man dump trade with the Guardians for since-outrighted Tobias Myers in the 2021-22 offseason. Caminero continued to run very interesting batted ball metrics at ascending levels during the 2022 campaign—first extended spring, then the FCL, then a cup of coffee at Low-A, then the offseason Australian Baseball League, enough to rise to the No. 99 prospect in baseball this winter despite a relatively limited track record of actual performance. This year, he’s been the top breakout star in the minors, absolutely demolishing High-A and Double-A as a teenager—he just turned 20 last week. Relative to age and league context (the Double-A portion of this being in the tacky ball Southern League), Caminero has been close to unparalleled in the first half. He looks like a superstar visually, and the foundational traits which showed up as early as the DSL have remained sticky the entire time; he still makes a whole lot of really hard contact. Why he might fail: His swing decisions, pitch recognition, and bat-to-ball have improved enough as he’s climbed levels, but he does still chase a little more than is optimal and there are some associated swing-and-miss concerns there. Defensively, he’s probably not actually playing short in the majors. There’s not much you can even nitpick here; Caminero’s ascendance has been so rapid and complete that it’s possible some flaw has been missed in the hype, perhaps? 3. James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals Why he’ll succeed: Wood has the best power potential of any top prospect left in the minors, which is evident both from his batted-ball data (elite average and high-end exits relative to his age, both in 2022 and 2023) and just watching him play. He has tremendous thump and, given his gargantuan size, he has surprisingly good barrel control and ranges shockingly well in the outfield. He might yet age out of center if he slows down, but he’s a legitimately above-average defender in center right now. Why he might fail: Wood has struggled a lot more with contact this year than last, with a significant drop in his rates that got even worse after his Double-A promotion. This wasn’t entirely unexpected; he had huge contact issues on the high school showcase circuit, and he’s listed at 6-foot-6 and 240 pounds with long arms. 4. Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals Why he’ll succeed: Crews is right there with Adley Rutschman for best collegiate hitting prospect out of the draft in recent memory. He consistently hits the ball extremely hard, with an extreme amount of batted balls in the 95-110 mph range, getting the absolute maximum out of his plus-plus raw power. He makes elite swing decisions and has above-average bat-to-ball potential. He’s likely to stick in center field and is a plus runner to boot. Why he might fail: Crews hits the ball on the ground too much right now for a player who doesn’t have elite contact abilities. That’s our only present concern—he was a truly dominant college player in almost every aspect, and that extends to his advanced data, too—but it might limit him to becoming a very good player instead of a superstar. 5. Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers Why he’ll succeed: Langford has an elite bat-to-ball/power potential combination with excellent swing decisions of his own, and also crushed the SEC. In almost all recent years he’d have been the slam dunk top overall draft prospect. Why he might fail: His power potential is less fully actualized at present than Crews. Defensively, Langford bounced between left and center for the Gators, and he’ll need work to stay at the more premium position as a pro; he has the speed to play center, but not the defensive chops yet. 6. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates Why he’ll succeed: Skenes is built like a NFL edge rusher, he throws triple-digit heat driven by incredible arm speed, he’s got a plus-plus, whiff machine slider, and his health history is relatively clean for a pitcher. And oh yeah, he’s coming off the greatest collegiate pitching season in over a decade and was just the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Why he might fail: While his fastball characteristics have room to improve, as of now it’s still mostly a velocity and command pitch with a suboptimal movement profile. Past that you’re looking at demographic risks—Skenes threw a lot in college, he had a pretty recent major velocity jump, and pitchers just get hurt. 7. Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers Why he’ll succeed: We talked about performance relative to age and league with Caminero a lot. Chourio has been in the same tacky ball Double-A Southern League all season, is about eight months younger than Caminero, and has grown into hitting the ball much harder than he used to—if not quite as hard as Caminero. Dating back to last season, Chourio has held his own at exceedingly young ages for the leagues he’s played in, and from a visual scouting perspective he looks like a future hit/power monster. Why he might fail: Chourio has yet to really, really actually hit at any level higher than Low-A. His bat-to-ball has improved along with his damage on contact, but he’s still chasing really bad pitches way too often, and that’s been an anchor on his performance. The caveat is that it’s pretty hard to tell how much of that is being amplified by the tacky baseball, but among the small handful of the game’s most elite prospects he has the greatest active concern—his approach is pretty bad right now. 8. Ethan Salas, C, San Diego Padres Why he’ll succeed: Salas just turned 17 last month. He’s already at Low-A and performing very well, and that’s extremely unusual for a player the age of a (relatively young) high school junior. He’s an advanced defender for a teenage catcher—he didn’t look out of place in a couple shots over in big-league camp during the spring—and he’s got some strong foundational hitting traits in terms of swing decisions and bat-to-ball. We simply cannot remember a hitter this advanced in professional baseball at 17 years, one month old. Why he might fail: Teenage catching is a wildly risky demographic. The Padres have limited Salas to catching about 2-3 times per week and DHing him the rest of the time, which is very reasonable given his age, but also highlights that sometimes young catchers just stagnate due to the demands of the position. He’s just starting to grow into serious damage on contact. But if he keeps doing what he’s doing for two more months he’s going to be significantly higher than this on the Top 101—and there’s not much higher to go. 9. Roman Anthony, OF, Boston Red Sox Why he’ll succeed: If it weren’t for Junior Caminero, Anthony would be considered the biggest breakout prospect of 2023. That got hidden for a bit having to hit in the cavernous Salem Memorial, but Anthony does a lot of the same things well as Jackson Holliday despite going 79th overall last summer (although he got paid like a first rounder). He doesn’t chase, he makes oodles of contact in the zone, and that contact is hard and in the air. It just looks right on the field, too. Anthony clears his hips and drops the barrel on anything in the zone, and while he isn’t consistently getting the ball in the air yet, once he does, he’ll be in the top five if not higher. Why he might fail: Anthony was a second-round prep pick who has done this for about three months. He hasn’t done it in the upper minors yet, and he might slide over to a corner if he fills out and slows down in his 20s. His bat-to-ball is ahead of his swing plane and physical strength at the moment. He’s also 19, and these qualms are mostly nitpicking in the middle of a huge breakout. 10. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Red Sox Why he’ll succeed: On the field, Mayer does everything well enough, and when one of those baseball things is “play shortstop” you’ve got one of the top prospects in baseball. There isn’t a slam dunk plus-plus grade on the scouting sheet here, a little unusual for a top-10 prospect, but Mayer has the kind of optimized swing path with enough pull-side pop to regularly top 20 home runs. That makes for a nice everyday player at the six. Why he might fail: That optimized swing is paired with a bit of an aggressive approach. That was fine in the low minors, but Double-A arms have begun to exploit a vulnerability to breaking balls at the bottom of the zone. He needs to tamp down that tendency to chase in the upper minors to really tap into the .270 average, 25-plus home run upside here. He’s also not a lock to stick at short, as his arm might play a bit better on the other side of the infield. But even if he doesn’t hit his OFP, lefty Chris Taylor is cooler than righty Chris Taylor. 11. Evan Carter, OF, Texas Rangers Why he’ll succeed: Carter has shown all the tools to have a safe major-league floor in center field. He’s an average defender up the middle already. He makes a lot of contact and will get on base, where his legs will be a weapon. He takes major-league quality at-bats and his pitch recognition is excellent. While the ball doesn’t jump off his bat, his top-end exit velocities suggest he could end up with average power, which is all he really needs to round out his plus regular profile. Why he might fail: Carter hasn’t really shown the ability to damage the ball on contact. A lot of his hardest-hit balls come in the form of grounders or low liners. He’s had a few seasons in a professional strength and conditioning program and hasn’t really added a ton of juice in his bat. He doesn’t need to hit 20 bombs to be a good major leaguer, but the lack of pop at present does limit his ceiling a bit. 12. Jackson Merrill, SS, San Diego Padres Why he’ll succeed: Merrill has been running truly elite contact rates as a pro; few hitters at any level put the bat on the ball better than he does. Given that he still has a pretty good chance of sticking at shortstop, that provides a lot of relatively safe major-league contributor outcomes even if he doesn’t fix any of his present flaws. Why he might fail: He doesn’t put enough of a charge into the ball in the air yet. Merrill chops down on the ball too much and expands the zone too often, probably because he can put the bat on almost everything. That leads to too much weak ground ball contact. These issues have actually been a little worse in the first half of 2023 than they were in 2022, and we like to see progress, not regression. 13. Colt Keith, 3B, Detroit Tigers Why he’ll succeed: Keith flashed big offensive tools last season, but was limited to just 48 games due to a shoulder injury. A mostly healthy 2023 has confirmed the priors—he’s a real thumper, to use the scouting parlance. Keith is a potential 30-homer bat, and the potential 70-grade pop comes with the type of hard contact ability that portends a plus hit tool as well. Despite his stomp-and-lift swing, Keith has plus barrel control and covers the high fastball without looking to sky it. He’s a complete hitter, with a solid approach to boot. Why he might fail: Well, we didn’t talk much about the defense above, did we? Keith has improved at the hot corner, and Detroit has even futzed around with him at second, but his hands must have caught the eye of the Gorgons once upon a time. You’re hoping for playably fringe somewhere on the dirt, or maybe he has the foot speed for a corner outfield spot, but Keith’s bat is going to have to carry the profile. 14. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks Why he’ll succeed: In spite of decreased top-line production, Lawlar has made some real strides in hitting the ball harder this year. He continues to look the part, with a smooth swing geared to maximize loft and a dynamic overall game. His swing decisions and contact rates remain on a positive track. His defense has taken a step forward from his at-times calamitous 2022, although he’s still far from a lock to stick at shortstop. Why he might fail: While he has above-average hitting potential if things come together, Lawlar’s exit velocities are still hovering around the lower end of the range of prospects on this list. The damage strides he’s made in 2023 have advanced him from a blinking red warning light to an amber one, not all the way up the spectrum. 15. Carson Williams, SS, Tampa Bay Rays Why he’ll succeed: Williams was in consideration for the Top 101 last year given the slick glove at short and potential plus pop, but his low minors contact rates just gave us a bit of pause. We’re ready to press play in 2023, as Williams moved up to High-A and improved his in-zone contact rates, tightened his approach, and hit the ball even harder. He’s never going to challenge for a batting title—and you’d be fine with him topping out at around .260—but like so many Rays prospects (and major leaguers) this is an optimized swing and approach. He’s a step closer to that plus power shortstop outcome, so he jumps way up our list this year. Tampa can’t keep getting away with this, right? Why he might fail: Pitches with good vertical action remain a problem, and Williams’ overall contact and strikeout rates remain suboptimal due to swing-and-miss on pitches way outside the zone. He does enough damage that you can live with the lower batting averages, but sometimes this profile really struggles in the upper minors. 16. Coby Mayo, 3B, Baltimore Orioles Why he’ll succeed: Mayo is an eye scouting pull that panned out. Long considered an incredibly projectable power bat, Mayo’s gotten incrementally better at two major things this year—he’s hitting the ball very hard consistently now, instead of inconsistently, and he’s making better swing decisions. The Orioles just keep maximizing their hitting talent. Why he might fail: There’s some overall swing-and-miss in Mayo’s game, although his in-zone contact rates have generally been better than you think. His defensive home is still a bit of a question; he’s quite big for third base and isn’t presently at a major-league level of defensive reliability. He could end up at any corner, basically. 17. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs Why he’ll succeed: Crow-Armstrong swallows up fly balls from gap to gap and may compete for Gold Gloves once he lands in Wrigley. He has the bat speed to square plus velocity, although his swing is a bit stiff, and the pop is more sneaky than plus. You’d hope for something like 15 home runs with plenty of doubles to juice the overall offensive profile to a bit above average. Given the speed and defense Crow-Armstong offers, that should be plenty. Why he might fail: There’s still a lot of hit tool risk for Crow-Armstrong. He’s a very, very good defender, but might not lock down a starting job in perpetuity solely on the basis of his center field glove, and a Leonys Martin-type career arc is a bit more in play than you’d want for a top-20 prospect in baseball. 18. Heston Kjerstad, 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles Why he’ll succeed: After years of medical issues, Kjerstad made a solid comeback last summer and then exploded this year. The 2020 No. 2 overall pick has improved his bat-to-ball ability, especially since his promotion to Triple-A—and it’s hard contact in the air. Yes, the Orioles have optimized another college hitter. Why he might fail: Kjerstad does still chase too much. His bat-to-ball improvements are new, and he’s only had an in-zone contact rate starting with a 9 for a couple of months. He’s probably going to end up at first base, although he has significant experience in the outfield as well. 19. Max Clark, OF, Detroit Tigers Why he’ll succeed: Clark has excellent contact abilities for a prep hitter, and they’re paired with quality swing decisions for his age. He has the speed and defensive chops to stick in center. There’s hope his power projection will mature out to plus. He’s performed well on the showcase circuit, and is probably the most famous prospect on this list to your younger family members due to his popularity on social media. Why he might fail: The power is mostly projection for now. Generally, there have also been more hit tool-driven top prep prospect failures coming out of nowhere than you might expect; it’s really difficult to assess whether a prep hitter is going to be able to track quality soft stuff until they actually see quality soft stuff. 20. Walker Jenkins, OF, Minnesota Twins Why he’ll succeed: If you’re a sucker for a beautiful lefty swing—and who isn’t, really—Jenkins was your guy in this year’s draft class, and there are scouts who have him closer to Crews and Langford than Clark. Jenkins takes one of those classic cuts, a controlled bout of fury at the ball, and causes eye scouts to throw plus hit, plus-plus power around as freely as he swings the bat. He’d be higher from an eye scout only perspective… Why he might fail: …but Jenkins doesn’t have the track record of standout showcase performance Clark does, which to be clear is not his fault—he’s had some injury issues. But that means that while Clark has a demonstrable track record of making a ton of good contact against showcase-level prep pitching, Jenkins has less of one. This is more of a known unknown than a flaw per se, but given all the recent contact troubles—some unexpected—of prep bats who visually look the part, it would be nice to have that data point. 21. Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies Why he’ll succeed: When healthy, Painter has an elite stuff/command combination for his age; he was on track to make his first major-league start as a teenager for a bit this spring. His upper-90s fastball can scrape over 100 and has a dominant whiff profile up in the zone. His sweepy slider flashes big potential too, and he’s been pairing it more and more with a pretty slick curveball. His changeup is more than adequate as a fourth pitch, although he still hasn’t used it a whole lot. Why he might fail: Painter didn’t make the Phillies’ rotation due to a UCL sprain, and four months later he still hasn’t thrown a ball in anger. He was shut down again last week, and it’s not clear if he’s going to pitch this year—at this point if he ends up needing elbow surgery he’ll put 2024 in question, too. 22. Harry Ford, C, Seattle Mariners Why he’ll succeed: A lot of what we wrote for Evan Carter also applies to Ford. He’s an advanced hitter for a 20-year-old, with strong contact ability and a good approach. He’s made huge strides behind the plate as well—DRP grades him out as by far the best defensive catcher in High-A this season—and he might be the fastest catcher in affiliated ball, so he has the foundational skills of a solid major leaguer. Why he might fail: Ford doesn’t have the present physicality to really impact the ball the way you’d hope—we weren’t kidding about a lot of the Carter write-up applying—and that also gives us a bit of pause about him sticking behind the plate long term. Ford is up to more of a 2:1 split on catching versus DHing this year, but it remains to be seen if his frame can hold up to the rigors of a 100+ game season donning the tools of ignorance. Where he lands if not catcher is a fun question; it might be somewhere else up the middle like center or second. 23. Dalton Rushing, C, Los Angeles Dodgers Why he’ll succeed: It would be overly pithy to just write “because he’s a Dodgers prospect,” but Rushing does have all the traits that org seems to maximize. He hits the ball very hard in the air to the pull side and is very good at selecting which pitches he should try and lift, while being able to move the barrel around well enough that he’s not just a one-gear hitter. Rushing is likely to stick at catcher—if only top out at average-ish there—where his bat would be amongst the best at the position. Why he might fail: Catchers are weird. Rushing is spending almost as much time at first base or DH this season and has missed time with a concussion. There’s a shade more hit tool concern for us as well, as High-A breakers have induced a bit more swing-and-miss than expected. 24. Noelvi Marte, 3B/SS, Cincinnati Reds Why he’ll succeed: Marte has always been young for his levels and he’s always hit. The ball jumps off his bat and his power can play line-to-line. He controls the zone well enough that it’s not hard to imagine his plus raw power playing in major-league games Why he might fail: It’s a clear power-over-hit profile and Marte has never really shown overwhelming over-the-fence power in the minors, as he hits the ball on the ground too often. There isn’t a spot for him on the Reds major league infield, and the glove might be best suited to corner outfield anyway. The likely 45 hit/60 power outcome is playable there, but it’s not providing a huge impact. 25. Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays Why he’ll succeed: Manzardo’s Statcast data looks an awful lot like Vinnie Pasquantino’s. While neither of them has extreme high-end power, they both hit the ball hard in the air a lot, make a lot of contact (although Manzardo’s bat-to-ball is a half-grade to grade worse than Pasquantino’s), and they both make really good swing decisions. We underranked Pasquantino at points, and we don’t want to make the same mistake again. Why he might fail: Manzardo has a first base only defensive profile and the bar for offense there is high. And despite the great underlying traits, he’s actually been a slightly below-average hitter for the International League this year due to an unusually low BABIP. 26. Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox Why he’ll succeed: He projects to have at least a plus hit tool, both visually and analytically. Montgomery has a great visual swing, and more importantly it makes an awful lot of contact. His pitch recognition is excellent for his age and buoys the hit profile. He has a projectable build and could grow into a solid amount of power. Why he might fail: Montgomery has missed almost all of the season to date with recurring oblique and back problems. While he could eventually become a power hitter, he’s not actually driving the ball in the air an awful lot yet. He was mightily overmatched at Double-A Birmingham to end last season, although his placement there had more to do with Chicago’s “Project Birmingham” developmental camp than anything. He may end up sliding from shortstop over to third down the road. 27. Termarr Johnson, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates Why he’ll succeed: Johnson gets some superlative visual eye scouting grades on his hit tool, most coming in at plus-plus or even better. It’s just a phenomenal looking swing, and he hits the ball pretty hard for his age too. He seems to have found a reasonable defensive home at second base, and on paper this all sounds a lot better than the 27th best prospect in baseball, which means there’s a pretty big catch coming. Why he might fail: He’s currently sitting at a 77% in-zone contact rate at Low-A. While this sort of data hasn’t been available for that long, we suspect there are few if any players who developed plus MLB hit tools who ran significantly below-average contact rates in Low-A. 28. Tommy Troy, IF, Arizona Diamondbacks Why he’ll succeed: Troy is a bat speed demon who excels on damage on contact. He can square up pretty much any fastball, he makes a lot of contact, and he lifts the ball a lot. His swing decisions greatly improved in his junior year. He crushed the ball on the Cape last year after also hitting it well in 2021, and won last summer’s official award for best pro prospect there, so there’s no question about his skills being a metal bat illusion. Why he might fail: His swing decisions have been a concern in the not-too-distant past, so we could see a “soft stuff low” problem as a professional. It’s not entirely clear where he’s going to play defensively—he played third for Stanford this year, but a lot of scouts projected him to second or even the outfield long-term. 29. Kyle Harrison, LHP, San Francisco Giants Why he’ll succeed: Harrison’s stuff has jumped year-over-year in the Giants system and he now sits 95, touching higher, with a fastball that comes in from a tough angle and can generate swings and misses both in and out of the zone. Both his breaking balls can also miss bats as well, and he’s already knocking on the door of the majors as a 21-year-old. The stuff suggests he’s one of the best pitching prospects in baseball Why he might fail: Harrison never had the finest command and control, but it’s turned into a real issue in the PCL this season. Adjusting to the Triple-A automated zone can cause these kinds of problems, but Harrison has only made it through the fifth inning once all season, and that’s been an efficiency problem, not workload management. The command suggests he might be a frustrating mid-rotation starter. He also just pulled his hamstring a few days before this list locked, which will cause him to miss some of the second half. 30. Curtis Mead, IF, Tampa Bay Rays Why he’ll succeed: Mead just keeps hitting and hitting and hitting everywhere he goes. He has an aggressive approach and hunts strikes without chasing too much, and whacks the ball around a lot. He projects as above-average to plus basically across the board in terms of hitting ability. Why he might fail: He doesn’t have any one true standout hitting trait, and he’s a stretched defensive fit at both second and third. He missed about two months earlier this season with a wrist injury, and while his underlying batted ball stats are similar to past years, his actual offensive production has been worse. 31. Adael Amador, SS, Colorado Rockies Why he’ll succeed: Amador has a clear plus hit tool projection, one of the best on this list. He’s short to the ball with decent whip and enough lift to drop it over the infielder’s heads and more than occasionally over the fence as well. Despite a penchant for swinging, he picks his spots pretty well and has walked more than he’s whiffed at both full-season stops. Always bet on the guy you think will hit. Why he might fail: Amador’s arm and infield actions will play better at second, and once you take the Rockies hitter-friendly affiliates and leagues out of the equation, his power is more in the 45 range. That is subject to further change as well, as it was recently announced that he had hamate surgery, an injury known to have both short- and long-term deleterious effects on power. Always bet on the guy you think will hit, but Amador will have to hit a lot. 32. Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers Why he’ll succeed: As you probably saw in the Futures Game, Misiorowski throws triple-digits heat and an absolutely wicked slider (and there’s a changeup and cutter in development too). Why he might fail: As you probably saw in the Futures Game, Misiorowski has major effort in his delivery (and a past history of related command/control issues), which gives him a fair amount of relief risk. 33. Tink Hence, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals Why he’ll succeed: Another Futures Game standout, Hence has a potential plus-plus fastball/curve combo—the slider and change will play too—which is top-of-the-rotation stuff. The fastball routinely hits the upper-90s with good ride, getting swings and misses at the top of the zone. The hook is a tight downer he can drop in at the bottom of the zone or induce chase out of it. He has a good chance to be in the top tier of pitching prospects by the end of the season. Why he might fail: The two main quibbles about Hence remain the same. He’s an undersized righty with a bit of effort in his delivery, and he’s yet to throw a full-season in the minors. His career high in innings pitched is 60, and while he has plenty of time to get stretched out—he won’t turn 21 until next month—we don’t know if the stuff pops as much across longer outings and a longer season. 34. AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta Braves Why he’ll succeed: Smith-Shawver went from an interesting teenaged arm A-ball in 2022 to starting in Atlanta by June 2023. His meteoric rise through the minors came on the back of a power fastball/slider combo that looked like it would play in the bigs in his brief cameo for the Braves. Both pitches look plus, the fastball clocking in mid-to-upper-90s while his mid-80s slide piece shows sharp two-plane action. Atlanta appears to have gotten away with another one here. Why he might fail: Smith-Shawver has made just 12 appearances all season across four different levels—and has scuffled a bit since heading back to Gwinnett—making it a bit tricky to get a feel for what he is right now. There’s some two-pitch reliever risk and he has a short track record of throwing high-quality strikes. We know his stock is way up, we don’t know exactly how far up, and this might be our only chance to rank him. 35. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays Why he’ll succeed: Tiedemann got velocity jumps in both 2021 instructs and the 2022 season and now sits mid-90s—touching higher—with a big sweeping breaking ball and solid change in the arsenal as well. It’s been downright dominant stuff from the left side so far in the pros. Why he might fail: “So far” hit a bit of a speed bump earlier this year as Tiedemann hit the IL with biceps inflammation after only four Double-A starts and has been “week-to-week” for about eight weeks now. Pitching prospects, man. 36. Drew Gilbert, OF, Houston Astros Why he’ll succeed: Gilbert wrings a lot of pop out of his listed 5-foot-9 frame. He takes violent cuts with big torque and bat speed, and can punish pitchers on the inner half. The barrel control is fine enough all things considered, and even during his Double-A struggles he’s walked almost as much as he’s struck out. He’s got a good shot to stick in center field and would be plus in a corner if he had to shift. Why he might fail: We noted in his preseason blurb that Gilbert didn’t have the longest track record of elite prospect level production. He destroyed High-A for the few weeks he spent there, but hasn’t hit for much average or power since joining Corpus Christi. Some of the muted performance can be explained by an elbow injury that limited him to DHing for a month or so, but he’s also looked overaggressive at the plate and upper-minors arms have exploited that with offspeed early in counts. Gilbert is going to have to adjust. 37. Edgar Quero, C, Los Angeles Angels Why he’ll succeed: I don’t know if there’s a prospect other than Ethan Salas who got as aggressive an assignment in 2023. After a breakout season in the Cal League in 2022, the switch-hitting catcher jumped straight to Double-A, where he had to contend with the tack ball both at the plate and behind it. He has held his own with the bat and made strides with his receiving at the same time. The top-line numbers don’t look amazing, but the power is still there and he remains one of the best catching prospects in baseball. Why he might fail: He might not stick at catcher, and the bat doesn’t have as much impact at a corner spot. Teasing out what to make of his offensive line given the level skip and different baseball makes this catcher even weirder. 38. Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals Why he’ll succeed: Winn is a plus defender at shortstop with one of the best infield arms in baseball. He runs well, makes a lot of contact, and has started hitting the ball harder the last couple seasons. His upper minors performance—while not overwhelming—is good enough to suggest there is enough in the bat that while Winn might be a glove-first shortstop, he won’t be glove-only. Why he might fail: While Winn hits the ball harder in aggregate now, only a thin sliver of his contact is 100+ mph. That suggests he may not do enough damage on contact in the majors to avoid the bottom of the lineup. 39. Nick Yorke, 2B, Boston Red Sox Why he’ll succeed: After a down 2022 season, a revamped setup and swing has allowed Yorke to sting the ball a bit more consistently, leading to an improved overall line. It’s a quirky one, starting with his hands high and his bat pointed down at the ground behind him, but it seems to work for him. While he’s sacrificed some barrel control and contact ability, he can rip pitches to the pull side or drive them into the opposite gap for extra bases. He remains a very good second baseman capable of the plus play. Yeah, that’s not a shortstop, but it’s valuable. Why he might fail: We do worry that Yorke might have sacrificed a bit too much barrel control and contact ability. The two-stage setup and elevated swing plane does leave him vulnerable down and away, and he doesn’t have obvious hard six pop even with the new swing. While York doesn’t have to hit .300, an above-average hit tool is still a must with his profile, and his zone control and overall swing-and-miss have been trending in the wrong direction the last month or two. 40. Brooks Lee, SS, Minnesota Twins Why he’ll succeed: Despite one of the more unusual swings you’ll see, Lee has a long track record of just hitting. That’s continued in 2023 as he’s posted an above-average line with a good overall contact rate in the Texas League in what’s just his first full pro season. He’s also improved enough at shortstop that he might be playable there at times in the majors, giving him a bit more positional value or defensive flexibility. Why he might fail: If you look under the hood here, there’s a few concerning signs. Lee hasn’t hit for as much power as you would have expected, and that interpretive dance of a swing hasn’t always squared Double-A stuff as often as it did in college. Lee is a fine hitter still, but without 20-plus home run pop, he might be more of an average regular than a star, especially if his long-term home is third base. 41. Cole Young, SS, Seattle Mariners Why he’ll succeed: The middle infield version of Harry Ford, Young has shown off a future plus hit tool and strong approach for Modesto this year. He’s a contact merchant with plenty of speed and should fit nicely at the top of the Mariners lineup in a few years, albeit likely as a good second baseman rather than an everyday shortstop. Why he might fail: Young doesn’t have much power to speak of at present given his rather flat bat path, and most of his merely .400ish slugging has come in the form of triples. It’s possible he can’t make pitchers pay enough in the upper minors to keep them from challenging him in the zone, and both the batting average and on-base ability take a hit. 42. Zach Dezenzo, IF, Houston Astros Why he’ll succeed: The extremely unexpected minor-league batting average leader for most of the first half, Dezenzo has been an exit velocity darling going back to Ohio State and two seasons in the Draft League. The Astros made a major swing change after drafting him, quieting his setup and leg kick and, with his newer simpler operation and improved swing decisions, he started making a lot more contact while retaining the “hits the crap out of the ball” aspect. He’s hit for a lot of average and already reached Double-A in his first full season. Why he might fail: These are all very, very quick improvements for a player who as recently as last winter projected as a hit tool minus. Defensively, he’s stretched up the middle and could end up at first, putting great pressure on the bat, though third base might also be a reasonable long-term position. 43. Sal Frelick, OF, Milwaukee Brewers Why he’ll succeed: Frelick makes a ton of contact. It’s an old school slap-and-dash from the speedy runner, but he can get the barrel of the bat on just about anything and picks up some extra offensive value with his wheels and solid swing decisions. Why he might fail: He just doesn’t hit the ball that hard, and that issue has been even worse in 2023 coming off thumb surgery. If he ends up in an outfield corner instead of center long-term, you really do want a hitter with more thump than Frelick possesses currently, and he’s small of stature such that power is not obviously coming. 44. Connor Phillips, RHP, Cincinnati Reds Why he’ll succeed: Phillips has upper-90s heat and the fastball can be a swing-and-miss pitch up in the zone. Both his breakers have a chance to get to above-average. He’s shown himself to be a durable, mid-rotation starter type for over 200 pro innings now, and may find himself taking some starts for the major-league club down the stretch. Why he might fail: It’s tough to tease out how much of Phillips K-rate spike this year was due to the Southern League environment, and his first two Triple-A starts suggest he might need some time to adjust back to the regular baseballs. He’s always had swing-and-miss stuff, but he’s also always had command concerns, and the breaking balls might merely be average without the added tack. 45. Dylan Lesko, RHP, San Diego Padres Why he’ll succeed: Lesko was the best prep arm in the 2022 draft, with a mid-90s fastball that destroys hitters up in the zone, one of the most advanced teenage changeups of the last decade, and a big, spinny yakker of a curve. Since he’s gotten back on the mound in 2023, post-Tommy-John, the stuff has looked top-of-the-rotation quality, just like it did before he got hurt in his senior year of high school. Why he might fail: He’s thrown three pro innings and is coming off Tommy John as a 19-year-old. The profile is too good to ignore given the dearth of top arms in the minors at the moment—if he holds this stuff and stretches out to three or four innings by the end of the year he’s going to be a top three pitching prospect in the game—but there’s a Ritz Carlton-sized suite of things that could go wrong for him. 46. Spencer Jones, OF, New York Yankees Why he’ll succeed: Damage, damage, damage. Jones can hit it as hard as anyone in the minors when he gets into one. Similar to James Wood, he plays a pretty good center field for such a large human right now. But Jones is mostly ranked here because if he even gets to a 4 hit tool he might be a star. Why he might fail: He might strike out and hit the ball on the ground too much. While Jones has swung and missed far less as a pro than initially projected, it’s been a bit more this year at High-A than Low-A, and his overall strikeout rate is a good bit north of 30% right now. There aren’t a ton of good major-league hitters who struck out that much in the low-minors. And he needs to hit the ball in the air more to take advantage of his mammoth power. 47. Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants Why he’ll succeed: Damage, damage, damage. Ever since he landed stateside, Luciano’s top end exit velocities have been on par with anyone in the minors. Even after a series of unfortunate injuries, the top end power potential is still there. He’s still only 21, in the upper minors, and still playing shortstop. Why he might fail: This might be the last gasp of a legacy ranking. Luciano’s contact issues are getting a bit onerous to the overall projection, and he’s eventually going to move off of shortstop. He’s also now going on two seasons impacted by back injuries, which is also a troubling trend. 48. Cade Horton, RHP, Chicago Cubs Why he’ll succeed: A bit of a surprise pick in the top 10 of last year’s draft, Horton’s fastball/slider combo continues to make hay in the low minors. His heater can reach the upper-90s and the breaker he added at the end of last year’s college season routinely flashes plus-plus. He might be able to get outs in a major league pen right now. Why he might fail: He might be limited to getting outs in a major league pen, long term. The curve and change lag behind here, as does the overall command. 49. Druw Jones, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks Why he’ll succeed: He’s a phenomenal center fielder, one of the best defensive prospects in the entire minors. Jones had an extensive track record of prep performance, and came out of the draft projecting as a true five-tool player, with a chance to hit and hit for power. That profile is still there, if a bit latent. Why he might fail: A year ago, the evaluation community was legitimately split right down the middle between Jones and Jackson Holliday. In the intervening time, Holliday has destroyed the ball at all low levels, and Jones has had a cascading series of injuries—he didn’t play last year after the draft due to a shoulder injury that put him behind this spring, and then has had quad and hamstring pulls limit him to just 10 (bad) games above the complex. There were some prep concerns about his contact skills against velocity and ability to do damage pulling the ball, and he’s had little opportunity to quell them. 50. Chase Davis, OF, St. Louis Cardinals Why he’ll succeed: Davis’ 2023 batted ball data and performance was not far off Wyatt Langford’s, honestly. Davis hit the ball consistently hard last year with excellent top-end exit velocities. In a bit of nominative refutism, he doesn’t chase much at all, and his bat-to-ball ability got all the way to above-average after a swing change. The Cardinals have historically done very well maximizing out prospect hitter traits, and he has some real strong ones. Why he might fail: Prior to 2023, he had major issues making contact, and given he takes a huge cut you could visually project that popping back up. He’s never hit much with wood bats, either. Perhaps his batted ball and plate discipline data is a single spring wonder? THE NEXT TEN 51. Nick Frasso, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers 52. Jeferson Quero, C, Milwaukee Brewers 53. Endy Rodriguez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates 54. Ceddanne Rafaela, OF, Boston Red Sox 55. Tyler Black, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers 56. Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, San Francisco Giants 57.Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 3B, Cincinnati Reds 58. James Triantos, IF, Chicago Cubs 59. Luisangel Acuna, IF, Texas Rangers 60. Sebastian Walcott, SS, Texas Rangers

Welcome to BJMB, Mr. Tango

This would also be a solution.

I actually think closers are devalued now and have their value enhanced in a SV+H format, where rostering them doesn't directly damage your ability to win the H category. Of the 7 teams with the most saves, 5 are bottom-7 in holds. Jaysblue does well in both, but his strategy is rostering SP/RPs. Spanky is the only team that does well in both cats, while rostering a traditional pitching staff. I don't think that success in one category should hurt your ability to have success in another.

This has bothered me for awhile, but does anyone else think we could improve the way we handle reliever counting stats? Having saves and holds as separate categories, with only 5 RP slots doesn't really incentivize rostering the best relief arms (many of which are closers). If you're rostering more than 2 closers, you're going to win saves every week, but punt holds. And often, if you have even 1 or 2 closers, you'll lose holds to a team with an inferior pen because they have 0 closers and 5 holds guys. Feels like having a single SV+H category and then adding a new 7th category (QS?) would better reward finding the best relievers. And closers would still be incentivized over holds guys because they typically get 30-40 saves and holds guys are more in the 20-25 holds range.

STFU Jim

This is my annual complaint about how much the All Star break f***ing sucks

Tough year for some of the ageing Booze Hounds. Abreu and LMH just fell off a cliff.

14M team option next year that almost certainly won't be picked up. Costing himself tens of millions this year.

How do you keep hitting a guy 2nd in the order when he's this checked out. Dude should be sent home.

lol, just posted about it on Fantrax. I tried to move that ******* for like 6 months.

What did you have for breakfast this morning?

Still not sure

Not sure if bot...

He's completely drenched and his command f***ing sucks

Just realized Sam Dyson was never given another shot after his suspension despite being a pretty effective reliever.

Is it just me or does this happen disproportionately to the Yankees

Sale has only thrown like 105 innings since his age-30 season. Crazy how everyone calling him a time bomb because he's twiggy with a violent-looking delivery was basically right.

He sucks! That FIP is going up when he stops getting lucky on fly balls.

They have zero good young players on their MLB roster and the prospect pool of a team that has been a playoff contender for the last decade. But they've been terrible since 2018. The extent to which they've avoided collecting assets is actually remarkable. Adael Amador might actually be the only piece of real value. Like, in their entire org.