If we're talking about what happens after 2024 if Vlad's 2024 looks a lot like his 2023, then yeah, he probably doesn't get a QO. But I don't think that's likely to happen given how hard he's hitting the ball. Every year of his career, Vlad's wOBA has been within 0.005 of his xwOBA - some years a hair higher, some years a hair lower. This year it's off by 0.55. He crushes the ball. He's probably not doing it in an ideal way, but you still can't expect someone to consistently hit the ball that hard and remain replacement level. I think if we're talking about the probability of possible outcomes for healthy Vlad in 2024 it would be something like:
10% - wOBA exceeds xwOBA or xwOBA close to wOBA but xwOBA goes up - MVP caliber season
70% - wOBA close to xwOBA, ~125-150 wRC+, sucks at everything else because he's out of shape, 2-4 win season
10% - wOBA and xwOBA both go down, sucks at everything else because he's out out shape, sub-2 win season
10% - wOBA once again a lot less than xwOBA, sucks at everything else because he's out out shape, sub-2 win season