OFFSEASON THREAD, '27...

[glory]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

Yes, you can look past performance and upside and speed/power combo and think Jazz and Marte have similar ceilings and floors and Jazz is somehow comparable or a better target if you can get him without giving him $100M or whatever... and it may be true.... but it severely underrates performance risk, I think. 

Jazz is a near 30% K guy. He is perilously close to falling off the planet, offensively. His xwOBA cratered to .294 this past season and has been mediocre for most of his career. He's a speed and D guy with pop, but it's really an annoying offensive profile because it's guess hitting and he can't hit LHP. You also get some weird stuff happening on D with him, because of attention or declining arm strength or whatever. 

Marte projects for a way higher wRC+ for a reason. Just a rock solid profile with the stick. You don't get much range or speed on the bases, but Marte was/is still fine in those categories. 

No question Marte is the better player, but feels like which one of the two options is the better move is a bit more debatable. I can see both arguments. A lot will depend on what it would cost in a trade. If Keys is the main piece going back, then it's close to a no brainer. Even if he pans out he's a 1B/DH at best, so not much value to the Jays given Vlad is here until 2076. But you'd have to be pretty comfortable with Marte's aging curve. Age 33 is a slippery slope, especially for someone who casually bails on his team during a playoff race. Aging plus possible "DGAF anymore" effort is a dangerous combination. Jazz has some of that risk as well, plus a much riskier offensive profile as you said, but it's possible he can be had on a much shorter contract.

Curious to see who they end up. Probably won't be anyone that is being discussed at the moment. 

[Sorrow]

My preference is Jazz for various reasons. Younger, not trading prospect capital, doesn’t have draft pick compensation attached unlike Lowe. He’s a really solid defender and an above average hitter and base runner and you likely don’t need to have him until he’s 37.

[JaysForever]

Marte has a full no trade clause. If he wants to go to the Jays, it puts Toronto in the driver seat. If that is the case, I do not think you have to give up as much as people think. If he does not want to come, the whole topic is mute.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Santander and some prospect capital to the D-Backs for Marte. Probably have to eat some of the Santander contract too since he's hardly played the last two seasons.

[Eat My Shatkins]

AJ Puk seems like a guy the Jays would and should pursue.

[glory]

Lots of stuff in that article, but one that jumped out at me was "Another player teams are asking about is catcher Brandon Valenzuela". Seems like an obvious sell high candidate if another team views him as a starting C. When Kirk came back, BV had a 61 wRC+ the rest of the way in 126 PA. A bit unfair to him since he was basically playing like a couple of times a week, and he was rolling before Kirk came back, but minor league track record offensively is not good and he'll be trapped behind Kirk for the foreseeable future anyway. Curious to see what other teams are offering for him. 

[Brownie19]

25 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

AJ Puk seems like a guy the Jays would and should pursue.

100%, although I don't think he'll be ready to start next season, so he carries some risk.

[Terminator]

32 minutes ago, glory said:

Lots of stuff in that article, but one that jumped out at me was "Another player teams are asking about is catcher Brandon Valenzuela". Seems like an obvious sell high candidate if another team views him as a starting C. When Kirk came back, BV had a 61 wRC+ the rest of the way in 126 PA. A bit unfair to him since he was basically playing like a couple of times a week, and he was rolling before Kirk came back, but minor league track record offensively is not good and he'll be trapped behind Kirk for the foreseeable future anyway. Curious to see what other teams are offering for him. 

He projects pretty well, 89 wRC+ with really good defense is a damn fine catcher. He's also cheap and has a ton of team control. I can't believe we got this guy for a slap hitting nepo-baby that can't field.

So I definitely wouldn't give him away but like you said, I would be curious to see what the offers are.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I wonder how much of a role Winckowski will play on the Jays next season.

Kind of a forgotten guy.

He was a good reliever before his injury.

[glory]

1 hour ago, Terminator said:

He projects pretty well, 89 wRC+ with really good defense is a damn fine catcher. He's also cheap and has a ton of team control. I can't believe we got this guy for a slap hitting nepo-baby that can't field.

So I definitely wouldn't give him away but like you said, I would be curious to see what the offers are.

Yeah I definitely wouldn't give him away, he's an asset, but might be a rare opportunity to sell high on a player who figures to be trapped in a backup role for a while. Of course if something happens to Kirk again then having Valenzuela would definitely come in handy, so make sure the trade makes a lot of sense. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

What happened to that Armchair GM site? Died?

[John_Havok]

4 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

I wonder how much of a role Winckowski will play on the Jays next season.

Kind of a forgotten guy.

He was a good reliever before his injury.

And still the one and only Jays minor leaguer to appear on our Radio Scouts podcast.... may it rest in peace 

[jaysblue]

13 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

AJ Puk seems like a guy the Jays would and should pursue.

If you can keep him healthy, he has the potential to be an elite reliever. Comes with a high K rate and posted a 1.7 fWAR season in 2024. 

Definitely the type of arm to roll the dice on for a couple of million + incentives. 

[jaysblue]

9 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

What happened to that Armchair GM site? Died?

Does it use Microsoft Outlook? Haha

[jaysblue]

13 hours ago, glory said:

Lots of stuff in that article, but one that jumped out at me was "Another player teams are asking about is catcher Brandon Valenzuela". Seems like an obvious sell high candidate if another team views him as a starting C. When Kirk came back, BV had a 61 wRC+ the rest of the way in 126 PA. A bit unfair to him since he was basically playing like a couple of times a week, and he was rolling before Kirk came back, but minor league track record offensively is not good and he'll be trapped behind Kirk for the foreseeable future anyway. Curious to see what other teams are offering for him. 

Yeah his sporadic playing time once Kirk came back definitely didn't help. Would have been nice to see the Jays use more of Valenzuela, even if it meant DHing him when Kirk was catching or visa-versa. I think he could be a solid full-time catcher if given the opportunity. 

[jaysblue]

13 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Santander and some prospect capital to the D-Backs for Marte. Probably have to eat some of the Santander contract too since he's hardly played the last two seasons.

That would be ideal. Arizona has shown in the past they like bats with pop and low OBP skills haha. 

Santander if healthy would be a great fit in that lineup and ballpark. Arizona also wants to get rid of Marte after the incident last season, so they really don't have much leverage as before in regards to him. 

[jaysblue]

15 hours ago, Sorrow said:

My preference is Jazz for various reasons. Younger, not trading prospect capital, doesn’t have draft pick compensation attached unlike Lowe. He’s a really solid defender and an above average hitter and base runner and you likely don’t need to have him until he’s 37.

Agreed. He would be my preference as well. 

Either way, both would be upgrades to this lineup and over Clement. 

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Yeah his sporadic playing time once Kirk came back definitely didn't help. Would have been nice to see the Jays use more of Valenzuela, even if it meant DHing him when Kirk was catching or visa-versa. I think he could be a solid full-time catcher if given the opportunity. 

Based on his minor league numbers, I think there a much higher probability that Valenzuela was on a heater and the league adjusted.  Obviously there are players who perform better in the majors than they do in the minors, but there 50 times more players who don't.

I'd certainly be listening to offers if teams think he can be their starter, but we'd need to replace him with a quality backup (which is what I think BV ultimately is).

[max silver]

3 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Yeah his sporadic playing time once Kirk came back definitely didn't help. Would have been nice to see the Jays use more of Valenzuela, even if it meant DHing him when Kirk was catching or visa-versa. I think he could be a solid full-time catcher if given the opportunity. 

Valenzuela struggled mightily with the bat once Kirk returned to the lineup and I just don't think giving him DH time would have been a wise decision, especially with how badly the Blue Jays were struggling offensively. 

[Terminator]

The nice thing about Ketel Marte is that his salary is relatively cheap.

If we want to spend big bucks this offseason, you could trade for Ketel Marte and he barely makes a dent in the budget at 15 mil a year. 

Trading for him wouldn't prevent us from signing Suzuki, Skubal, or whatever else they have in mind. If you sign Jazz to 24+ mil a year, well then you've probably got to make some decisions with the money you have left. 

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

Valenzuela struggled mightily with the bat once Kirk returned to the lineup and I just don't think giving him DH time would have been a wise decision, especially with how badly the Blue Jays were struggling offensively. 

BV is the perfect backup catcher. 

Elite defense and will run into a HR often enough not to be embarrassing with the stick.

If someone wants him as a starter... sure trade him if they offer a legit piece that addresses a need but no reason to do so otherwise.

[Terminator]

Catchers hit 91 wRC+ last year. Val projects for 89 with elite defense. So not only is he a starter but he might be a pretty darn good one.

[Brownie19]

53 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Catchers hit 91 wRC+ last year. Val projects for 89 with elite defense. So not only is he a starter but he might be a pretty darn good one.

Does that include all catchers?  I suspect there's an awful lot of backup catchers dragging that number down.

That said - it's still a fair point.  If you use a 300 PA cutoff, then an 89 wRC+ ranks 21st last year, so technically a starter.

This is a guy who's had a wRC+ of 105, 91 and 99 over his last 3 years in the minors (2023-2025).  ISO's have been .135, .120 and .160.  I'm just not sure that translates to a wRC+ of 89 in full-time duties.

But the defense might be good enough that he can be a starter with a wRC+ of 80.  That's a possiblity.

[max silver]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

BV is the perfect backup catcher. 

Elite defense and will run into a HR often enough not to be embarrassing with the stick.

If someone wants him as a starter... sure trade him if they offer a legit piece that addresses a need but no reason to do so otherwise.

Yeah ultimately if a team makes an offer too good to refuse any trade is worth considering. I just don't think the club possess quality depth at the catcher position and a Kirk injury would leave the club terribly exposed. 

[John_Havok]

10 minutes ago, max silver said:

Yeah ultimately if a team makes an offer too good to refuse any trade is worth considering. I just don't think the club possess quality depth at the catcher position and a Kirk injury would leave the club terribly exposed. 

This. 

It's just opening a hole that you'd have to fill with someone else when you can bank on some sort of Kirk injury where BV will have to play regular reps for at least a few weeks anyways. 

 

 

[BTS]

I really like the idea of being one of those teams that rolls with two very good catchers. It's a massive safety net in the event Kirk gets hurt again.

[Brownie19]

12 minutes ago, BTS said:

I really like the idea of being one of those teams that rolls with two very good catchers. It's a massive safety net in the event Kirk gets hurt again.

Yeah - I agree with this.  Like how the NHL has moved to a 2 goalie system.  I'm not giving up BV unless it's a deal you can't refuse.

[glory]

3 hours ago, Terminator said:

The nice thing about Ketel Marte is that his salary is relatively cheap.

If we want to spend big bucks this offseason, you could trade for Ketel Marte and he barely makes a dent in the budget at 15 mil a year. 

Trading for him wouldn't prevent us from signing Suzuki, Skubal, or whatever else they have in mind. If you sign Jazz to 24+ mil a year, well then you've probably got to make some decisions with the money you have left. 

Trading prospects for 33 year old Marte on a 5 year deal, and then losing 2 picks and international money to sign 32 year old Suzuki to probably a 5 year deal seems like a fast way of becoming the Canadian version of the San Francisco Giants. I hope if they do trade for Marte that they aim a bit younger for the other adds. Like, Marte plus Sato at least hedges a bit with age/upside, for example. 

[Terminator]

Damn Lane Thomas crushes lefties in his career. (Unregressed splits alert.)

It isn't sexy at all, but a Lukes/Thomas platoon in LF probably nets you a lot more WAR than you think,

[JaysForever]

If they can get Marte on the cheap because he has a no trade, and sign Sato... that would be my perfect scenario. Putting pitching aside.