OFFSEASON THREAD, '27...

[Spanky__99]

Discuss... we need one... 

 

TORONTO BLUE JAYS PLAYER PAYROLL▼

Estimated 2027 Payroll:	$252M	Legend:	FREE AGENT	Club Option	Player Option	Mutual Option	Vesting Option
Estimated Final 2026 Payroll:	$282M	Estimated Value|Money Owed to Team

Players With Guaranteed Salaries▼

Player	Age	Service Time	Contract	Info	AAV	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	27.6	6.157	14 yr, $500M (2026-39)		$35,714,286	$40,214,286	$39,214,286	$38,214,286	$37,714,286	$37,714,286	$37,714,286	$35,714,286
Dylan Cease	30.9	6.089	7 yr, $210M (2026-32); deferrals lower AAV		$27,023,965	$33,285,714	$32,285,714	$31,285,714	$30,285,714	$29,285,714	$28,285,714	FREE AGENT
Andrés Giménez	28.2	5.106	7 yr, $106.5M (2023-29), 2030 club option		$19,371,429	$23,571,429	$23,571,429	$23,571,429	$23,000,000
José Berríos	32.4	9.044	7 yr, $131M (2022-28); can opt out after 2026		$18,714,286	$24,714,286	$24,714,286	FREE AGENT
Kazuma Okamoto	30.3		4 yr, $60M (2026-29)		$15,000,000	$17,250,000	$17,250,000	$17,250,000	FREE AGENT
Anthony Santander	32.0	7.162	5 yr, $92.5M (2025-29), 2030 club option; can opt out after 2027; can void by picking up option; deferrals lower AAV		$14,314,441	$21,000,000	$14,750,000	$12,750,000	$15,000,000
Tyler Rogers	35.9	6.034	3 yr, $37M (2026-28), 2029 vesting option; $9M club option if option doesn't vest		$12,333,333	$13,666,667	$13,666,667	$12,000,000
Alejandro Kirk	28.0	5.047	5 yr, $58M (2026-30)		$11,600,000	$12,325,000	$12,325,000	$12,325,000	$12,325,000	FREE AGENT
Cody Ponce	32.5	0.126	3 yr, $30M (2026-28)		$10,000,000	$12,000,000	$12,000,000	FREE AGENT

Service time is updated through 2025. Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2027 are courtesy of MLBTradeRumors, which uses a model created by Matt Swartz.	Legend:	Estimated Arb

Players Eligible For Arbitration▼

Player	Age	Service Time	Contract	Info	AAV	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Ernie Clement	30.6	3.168	1 yr, TBD (2027)			$7,600,000	ARB 3	FREE AGENT
José Soriano	28.0	3.121	1 yr, TBD (2027)			$5,600,000	ARB 3	FREE AGENT
Josh Smith	29.2	3.129	1 yr, TBD (2027)			$3,700,000	ARB 3	FREE AGENT
Bowden Francis	30.5	2.098	1 yr, TBD (2027)			$1,300,000	ARB 2	ARB 3	FREE AGENT
Spencer Arrighetti	26.8	2.000	1 yr, TBD (2027)			$1,900,000	ARB 2	ARB 3	ARB 4	FREE AGENT
Louis Varland	28.9	1.163	1 yr, TBD (2027)			$3,800,000	ARB 2	ARB 3	ARB 4	FREE AGENT
Nathan Lukes	32.3	1.145	1 yr, TBD (2027)			$2,100,000	ARB 2	ARB 3	ARB 4	FREE AGENT
Davis Schneider	27.8	2.029	1 yr, TBD (2027)			$1,300,000	ARB 2	ARB 3	ARB 4	FREE AGENT

Notable Players Not Yet Eligible For Arbitration▼

Player	Age	Service Time	Contract	Info	AAV	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Addison Barger	27.0	1.103	1 yr, TBD (2027)			TBD	ARB 1	ARB 2	ARB 3	FREE AGENT
Mason Fluharty	25.2	0.139	1 yr, TBD (2027)			TBD	Pre-ARB	ARB 1	ARB 2	ARB 3	FREE AGENT
Braydon Fisher	26.3	0.145	1 yr, TBD (2027)			TBD	ARB 1	ARB 2	ARB 3	ARB 4	FREE AGENT
Trey Yesavage	23.3	0.014	1 yr, TBD (2027)			TBD	Pre-ARB	ARB 1	ARB 2	ARB 3	FREE AGENT
Brandon Valenzuela	26.1	0.000	1 yr, TBD (2027)			TBD	Pre-ARB	ARB 1	ARB 2	ARB 3	FREE AGENT
Spencer Miles	26.3		1 yr, TBD (2027)			TBD	Pre-ARB	Pre-ARB	ARB 1	ARB 2	ARB 3	FREE AGENT
Brett Bateman	24.6		1 yr, TBD (2027)			TBD	Pre-ARB	Pre-ARB	ARB 1	ARB 2	ARB 3	FREE AGENT
Estimated salaries for other pre-arbitration players					$13,600,000

Players No Longer On 40-Man Roster or No Longer In Organization▼

Player	Age	Service Time	Contract	Info	AAV	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Yariel Rodríguez	29.7	2.000	5 yr, $32M (2024-28), 2028 player option; team has $10M club option if player option declined		$6,400,000	$8,000,000	$6,000,000

Other Payments▼

Description	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
$ owed to MIN (Jeff Hoffman trade)	$3,750,000
$ due for buyout of Myles Straw	$1,750,000
Jeff Hoffman signing bonus	$1,666,667
Andrés Giménez signing bonus	-$571,429	-$571,429	-$571,429
$ owed from CLE (Myles Straw trade)	-$1,750,000
$ due for potential buyout of Tyler Rogers			$1,000,000
$ due for potential buyout of Anthony Santander				$5,000,000
$ due for potential buyout of Andrés Giménez				$2,500,000
Estimated Payroll	$251,772,619	$189,205,952	$135,825,000	$87,825,000	$67,000,000	$66,000,000	$35,714,286

Totals for estimated payrolls include potential buyouts and earned buyout escalators — but not option total or earned option escalator — for pending options

Luxury Tax Payroll Estimate▼

Description	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts (does not include players no longer on 40-man roster)	$164,071,740	$164,071,740	$123,024,121	$74,338,251	$62,738,251	$62,738,251	$35,714,286
Salaries for players eligible for arbitration	$27,300,000
AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts no longer on the 40-man roster	$6,400,000
Earned incentives and escalators
Sum of Other Payments (does not include potential buyouts)	$3,095,238	-$571,429	-$571,429
Estimated salaries for players not yet eligible for arbitration and other players with non-guaranteed contracts	$13,600,000
Estimated salaries for 40-man roster players in minor leagues	$2,500,000	$2,500,000	$2,500,000	$2,500,000	$2,500,000	$2,500,000	$2,500,000
Estimated player benefits to be paid	$18,500,000	$19,000,000	$19,500,000	$20,000,000	$20,500,000	$21,000,000	$21,500,000
Payment into $50M pre-arbitration bonus pool	$1,666,667	$1,666,667	$1,666,667	$1,666,667	$1,666,667	$1,666,667	$1,666,667
Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll	$237,133,645	$186,666,978	$146,119,359	$98,504,918	$87,404,918	$87,904,918	$61,380,953

[jaysblue]

[BTS]

Jays bought out Straw, and apparently Cleveland is on the hook for the 1.75M 

[Sorrow]

40 minutes ago, BTS said:

Jays bought out Straw, and apparently Cleveland is on the hook for the 1.75M 

Cleveland was on the hook regardless but even if you brought him back at 6.25 and he still makes 8 between the two payments hits a smaller luxury tax hit.

[max silver]

57 minutes ago, BTS said:

Jays bought out Straw, and apparently Cleveland is on the hook for the 1.75M 

That was essentially a no brainer decision.

[Brownie19]

Does anyone know if Do Yeong Kim is coming to the MLB this year?  

He's entering his age 23 season and has always been a beast in the KBO.  171 wRC+ last year with 45 HRs.  Good K/BB ratio too.   

I know the KBO is a crapshoot...

[BTS]

What does everyone think the lineup/bench looks like as things stand. I think we have the following situation. 

C - Kirk

1B - Guerrero Jr. 

2B - ???

3B - Okamoto

SS - Gimenez

LF - ???

CF - Bateman

RF - Barger

DH - Santander

-----

C - Valenzuela

2B/3B/SS - Clement

2B/3B/OF - Smith

OF - Lukes

 

Optioned - Ross, McAdoo, Pinango, Schneider, Keys

Cut - Clase

[BTS]

- We have room to add like 3 bats before running into anything resembling a roster crunch. 

- Clase probably doesn't survive the offseason given that he's out of options and sucked at AAA. 

- I wonder if Schneider gets non-tendered. He has options, but is projected to make 1.3M and is extremely limited as an all-bat short-side platoon LF who might not actually be able to hit. 

- We need another CF on the roster. Lukes can cover it in a pinch, but he can't be Bateman's only backup at the position. Smith and Clement on the same team is a bit of an awkward fit unless they form a 2B platoon or something. 

[Brownie19]

I agree with all of that.  Feels like we may need a trade.

[Brownie19]

Can someone unpin the World Series thread so it disappears into the abyss?  Thanks.

[Super Jays]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Does anyone know if Do Yeong Kim is coming to the MLB this year?  

He's entering his age 23 season and has always been a beast in the KBO.  171 wRC+ last year with 45 HRs.  Good K/BB ratio too.   

I know the KBO is a crapshoot...

MLB.com predicts he'll post at the end of the 2028 season.  I have no idea if that means he can't until then or if that's just their best guess.

[Sorrow]

1 hour ago, BTS said:

- We have room to add like 3 bats before running into anything resembling a roster crunch. 

- Clase probably doesn't survive the offseason given that he's out of options and sucked at AAA. 

- I wonder if Schneider gets non-tendered. He has options, but is projected to make 1.3M and is extremely limited as an all-bat short-side platoon LF who might not actually be able to hit. 

- We need another CF on the roster. Lukes can cover it in a pinch, but he can't be Bateman's only backup at the position. Smith and Clement on the same team is a bit of an awkward fit unless they form a 2B platoon or something. 

I think I’d take a flyer on Tyrone Taylor for the backup CF roll if he’s open to it.

Schneider hits RHP significantly better than LHP both in the MLB and MiLB. In 2025 the only player on the team that hit righties better was Springer and that’s with like a 100 PA cut off. I do think he runs a real risk of being non tendered and I think Clement does as well.

[Brownie19]

11 minutes ago, Sorrow said:

I think I’d take a flyer on Tyrone Taylor for the backup CF roll if he’s open to it.

Schneider hits RHP significantly better than LHP both in the MLB and MiLB. In 2025 the only player on the team that hit righties better was Springer and that’s with like a 100 PA cut off. I do think he runs a real risk of being non tendered and I think Clement does as well.

I can't imagine any scenario where Clement is non-tendered.  Davis is likely gone.  I don't think he's very good or useful unfortunately.

I'm also OK with Tyrone Taylor as the 5th OFer - but only if we think the offensive gains are permanent.  He doesn't have much of a track record of punishing LHP (or any pitching for that matter).

[Brownie19]

41 minutes ago, Super Jays said:

MLB.com predicts he'll post at the end of the 2028 season.  I have no idea if that means he can't until then or if that's just their best guess.

Interesting.  His name is trending on Fangraphs, which promoted my question/observation.

[Brownie19]

What happened to Taylor Ward last year?  Dude's power just evaporated.  If the Jays think that's fixable, I could see some scenario where they sign Ward and Thomas - probably both on 1 year deals.

LF - Ward/Lukes

CF - Bateman/Thomas

RF - Barger/Lukes

Pretty easy to see how those 5 would rotate around based on matchups.  It's certainly an unspectacular OF on paper, but bounce back season from Ward and Barger and it could be a sneaky solid configuration.

I could see us pivoting this way if bidding for Suzuki and Randy gets too rich for our blood (say 5 year deals are on the table, and/or AAV's nearing $30M).

You could then spend more on 2nd base if you wanted (maybe Jazz if you can stomach him?) - or if you wanted to add another impact bat in say Bauer to DH?  Could also free up more money for pitching upgrades.

[glory]

I definitely see at least one trade for a controllable position player. Could be for a 2B, CF, LF, who knows, but it will be someone, IMO. Can't fill all your weaknesses with free agency, and there's no help coming from the system aside from a DH/1B who is probably trade bait on this roster (Keys). Jacob Young and Steven Kwan are the most Ross Atkins trade targets I can think of, though Kwan only has a year left. With Bolte turning into a quality CF for the A's, maybe they move Clarke, who the Jays can replace Straw with. Super low floor offensively, but great defense, base running, and has bat speed. Maybe there's something that can be unlocked. 

My guess is Suzuki is the player the Jays will go all in on in free agency. That's the big fish and everyone else will be less significant in name value. 

[Laika]

2 hours ago, BTS said:

What does everyone think the lineup/bench looks like as things stand. I think we have the following situation. 

C - Kirk

1B - Guerrero Jr. 

2B - ???

3B - Okamoto

SS - Gimenez

LF - ???

CF - Bateman

RF - Barger

DH - Santander

-----

C - Valenzuela

2B/3B/SS - Clement

2B/3B/OF - Smith

OF - Lukes

 

Optioned - Ross, McAdoo, Pinango, Schneider, Keys

Cut - Clase

https://www.dealinthecards.com/gm?team=tor

Highly recommend dicking around on this, very fun 

[R.O.]

 

[Terminator]

4 hours ago, BTS said:

- We have room to add like 3 bats before running into anything resembling a roster crunch. 

- Clase probably doesn't survive the offseason given that he's out of options and sucked at AAA. 

- I wonder if Schneider gets non-tendered. He has options, but is projected to make 1.3M and is extremely limited as an all-bat short-side platoon LF who might not actually be able to hit. 

- We need another CF on the roster. Lukes can cover it in a pinch, but he can't be Bateman's only backup at the position. Smith and Clement on the same team is a bit of an awkward fit unless they form a 2B platoon or something. 

I agree with all of this. 

• Clase sucks. Get him out of here.
• Schneider also sucks and has been pass by Smith, McAdoo, etc. 
• Clement and Smith don't really both fit if we add another 2B. Smith has options though and if he's in Buffalo it could make it easier to dump Schneider. But maybe a Clement/Smith platoon isn't THAT bad if we upgrade enough elsewhere?

 

[Terminator]

5 hours ago, BTS said:

What does everyone think the lineup/bench looks like as things stand. I think we have the following situation. 

C - Kirk

1B - Guerrero Jr. 

2B - ???

3B - Okamoto

SS - Gimenez

LF - ???

CF - Bateman

RF - Barger

DH - Santander

-----

C - Valenzuela

2B/3B/SS - Clement

2B/3B/OF - Smith

OF - Lukes

 

Optioned - Ross, McAdoo, Pinango, Schneider, Keys

Cut - Clase

Just going off of what we already have in-house, you could slide Lukes into LF, platoon Clement/Smith at 2B, and give Keys some DH ABs while Taters gets time in the corner OF spots. There's obviously room to upgrade, but SP might actually be the bigger need.

Cease and Soriano project as a #1 and #3, while Trey and Ponce look solid but with limited innings. Miles is a decent swingman, and then you've got the Spaghetti, Berrios, Bloss, and Francis slop.

Sounds weird after watching that anemic offense last year, and I'm definitely going to get tarred and feathered for this, but a good SP might improve this team more than a good bat. We don't really have a 5th starter but we do have some 2 WARish guys for the other spots.

[BTS]

27 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Just going off of what we already have in-house, you could slide Lukes into LF, platoon Clement/Smith at 2B, and give Keys some DH ABs while Taters gets time in the corner OF spots. There's obviously room to upgrade, but SP might actually be the bigger need.

Cease and Soriano project as a #1 and #3, while Trey and Ponce look solid but with limited innings. Miles is a decent swingman, and then you've got the Spaghetti, Berrios, Bloss, and Francis slop.

Sounds weird after watching that anemic offense last year, and I'm definitely going to get tarred and feathered for this, but a good SP might improve this team more than a good bat. We don't really have a 5th starter but we do have some 2 WARish guys for the other spots.

I don't necessarily disagree, but the problem is that its a terrible year to be dipping into the SP market. Skubal would obviously be great, but if you can't sign him who do you throw money at? 

- Trevor Rogers is probably the second best guy, but hasn't been healthy or consistent and is probably getting 100-150M 

- Next tier is a bunch of probable league average guys: Michael King, Freddy Peralta, Shota Imanaga, Clay Holmes, maybe Kaima Taira. 

The more I think about it, the more I think Adrian Morejon migth move the needle more than any non-Skubal SP. He's been worth 2-3 WAR and 3+ WPA the last couple of years and he's the kind of guy you can rely on in a playoff series. I might prefer him and someone like Soroka, Woodruff, or Boyd on a short-term deal than go 3+ years on one of the mediocre SPs after Skubal. 

That said, I could see this team thinking they could get bankable production from someone like Peralta, Rogers, or King and I trust them to make that call. 

[Brownie19]

12 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Just going off of what we already have in-house, you could slide Lukes into LF, platoon Clement/Smith at 2B, and give Keys some DH ABs while Taters gets time in the corner OF spots. There's obviously room to upgrade, but SP might actually be the bigger need.

Cease and Soriano project as a #1 and #3, while Trey and Ponce look solid but with limited innings. Miles is a decent swingman, and then you've got the Spaghetti, Berrios, Bloss, and Francis slop.

Sounds weird after watching that anemic offense last year, and I'm definitely going to get tarred and feathered for this, but a good SP might improve this team more than a good bat. We don't really have a 5th starter but we do have some 2 WARish guys for the other spots.

It will be interesting to see if the Jays move Miles to the rotation, or if they lock him in as a leverage RPer...

I think there will be all kinds of interesting starters available on short term deals that could help fill out our rotation.  Some with potential to give us top of the rotation results, but also with floors of a #4/#5.  I think that's OK though - given there's potential that Yesavage and/or Ponce also have top of the rotation upside.

[Sorrow]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jays sign the short fat hard thrower out of Japan and Sato while trying to trade for a 2B improvement with someone like Ketel Marte.

[Eat My Shatkins]

You go balls to the wall for Skubal but if that doesn't happen I'd be more than happy to bring Gausman back.

And no matter what happens in the above scenario I'm hoping to see Bieber back on a pillow deal.

Nothing wrong with bringing back last years rotation IMO (minus mad Max) because:

1. You're probably going to get a lot more out of Ponce than 2.1 innings lol

2. Now you also have Soriano in the mix

3. You likely get healthier seasons from Bieber and Yesavage

4. Berrios, Francis and Bloss didn't even exist last season in MLB, but likely play a factor next season

[Jays24]

10 minutes ago, Sorrow said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jays sign the short fat hard thrower out of Japan and Sato while trying to trade for a 2B improvement with someone like Ketel Marte.

Marte is the dream trade candidate but I just dont think we have enough to trade back sadly. 

[Super Jays]

14 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Marte is the dream trade candidate but I just dont think we have enough to trade back sadly. 

I don't really want to trade any prospects away, especially if there's a possibility of a salary cap.  I don't want to see more dumpster diving for pitchers during the season because we have no pitching depth.  I've seen YouTubers proposing that we trade Nolan Perry or Johnny King for 1 year rental players.  That's insane to me.  Obviously Marte isn't under a 1 year contract, but I still think we need to build up our system.

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, BTS said:

I don't necessarily disagree, but the problem is that its a terrible year to be dipping into the SP market. Skubal would obviously be great, but if you can't sign him who do you throw money at? 

- Trevor Rogers is probably the second best guy, but hasn't been healthy or consistent and is probably getting 100-150M 

- Next tier is a bunch of probable league average guys: Michael King, Freddy Peralta, Shota Imanaga, Clay Holmes, maybe Kaima Taira. 

The more I think about it, the more I think Adrian Morejon migth move the needle more than any non-Skubal SP. He's been worth 2-3 WAR and 3+ WPA the last couple of years and he's the kind of guy you can rely on in a playoff series. I might prefer him and someone like Soroka, Woodruff, or Boyd on a short-term deal than go 3+ years on one of the mediocre SPs after Skubal. 

That said, I could see this team thinking they could get bankable production from someone like Peralta, Rogers, or King and I trust them to make that call. 

Yeah that all makes sense to me. Boob-itch or one of the Japanese guys to go with a good reliever could work. Or maybe one of those two and then another SP like Foster Griffin or something. Get two 120 inning guys.

[Brownie19]

16 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Marte is the dream trade candidate but I just dont think we have enough to trade back sadly. 

I think he comes with more risk than people think.  Assuming he picks up his player option in 2031, he'll be owed $89.25M for 5 years.  That's a lot for his age 33 through 37 years. His bat dropped off considerably last year (103 wRC+) and a lot of 2nd basemen seem to fall off a cliff in their early 30's.  You also the poor decision from last year when his team was in a playoff race.  There are red flags.

Obviously there's a probability that he returns to form and gives you another 4+ WAR year or 2.  I guess it depends on what he costs.  I can't imagine giving up top prospects for him though.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Imagine having a late inning reliever group made up of Varland, Morejon, Miles and Rogers.

[Omar]

 

1 hour ago, BTS said:

I don't necessarily disagree, but the problem is that its a terrible year to be dipping into the SP market. Skubal would obviously be great, but if you can't sign him who do you throw money at? 

- Trevor Rogers is probably the second best guy, but hasn't been healthy or consistent and is probably getting 100-150M 

- Next tier is a bunch of probable league average guys: Michael King, Freddy Peralta, Shota Imanaga, Clay Holmes, maybe Kaima Taira. 

The more I think about it, the more I think Adrian Morejon migth move the needle more than any non-Skubal SP. He's been worth 2-3 WAR and 3+ WPA the last couple of years and he's the kind of guy you can rely on in a playoff series. I might prefer him and someone like Soroka, Woodruff, or Boyd on a short-term deal than go 3+ years on one of the mediocre SPs after Skubal. 

That said, I could see this team thinking they could get bankable production from someone like Peralta, Rogers, or King and I trust them to make that call. 

If the Jays can get Sonny Gray for 3/60M I would pull that trigger.    He will give a ton of quality starts and eat innings.  Cease, Soriano and Gray in a three game series gives me the fizz.