Is any of this even real or just all manipulated by the gamblers?

[Olerud363.354]

Season over, but JaysBlue made some interesting points on one of the gamethreads.  My reply here because I think it deserves it's own thread. 

Basically his vibe was things are so weird, how do we even know it's real and not just manipulated for gambling?  Is Cease really only throwing 92 now with no control?  Did Vlad really lose his power for no reason?  Or are they just playing to the whims of gamblers?  For the record I do not believe at all that Cease and Vlad's problems are on purpose for the Gambers.  Simply an arm that's toast and a back that's probably just as bad. 

However I think there is some truth to what JaysBlue is getting at.  I don't think Cease, or Vlad, or the Jays are doing anything improper.  However I also think the problem is WAY bigger than people acknowledge and MLB is kind of doing what they did with the steroid era.  They are aware of bigger problems but only acknowledge the small.

Emanual Clase blowing the ALCS on purpose.  So much smoke there and no one hardly talks about it.  Check out his regular season and playoff stats.  So it's like there are levels to this.

1. Emanual Clase just thew balls on first pitch - bad but not game changing.

2. Clase purposely blew the ALCS

3. It's everywhere.  Everyone is blowing everything on purpose for the gamblers.

I think we are at 2 for sure, but probably not 3, but also somehow barely acknowledging 2. 

I truly believe Clase blew the ALCS but it will never come out, and they will just go after the stupid 'ball on first pitch' thing

I truly believe there are some other cases out there just as bad, that we may, or may not ever know about.

I don't believe Jays are tanking on purpose though, just major undisclosed injuries ...

[Pendleton]

I checked with the other gamblers and it wasn't us 

[John_Havok]

6 hours ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Season over, but JaysBlue made some interesting points on one of the gamethreads.  My reply here because I think it deserves it's own thread. 

Basically his vibe was things are so weird, how do we even know it's real and not just manipulated for gambling?  Is Cease really only throwing 92 now with no control?  Did Vlad really lose his power for no reason?  Or are they just playing to the whims of gamblers?  For the record I do not believe at all that Cease and Vlad's problems are on purpose for the Gambers.  Simply an arm that's toast and a back that's probably just as bad. 

However I think there is some truth to what JaysBlue is getting at.  I don't think Cease, or Vlad, or the Jays are doing anything improper.  However I also think the problem is WAY bigger than people acknowledge and MLB is kind of doing what they did with the steroid era.  They are aware of bigger problems but only acknowledge the small.

Emanual Clase blowing the ALCS on purpose.  So much smoke there and no one hardly talks about it.  Check out his regular season and playoff stats.  So it's like there are levels to this.

1. Emanual Clase just thew balls on first pitch - bad but not game changing.

2. Clase purposely blew the ALCS

3. It's everywhere.  Everyone is blowing everything on purpose for the gamblers.

I think we are at 2 for sure, but probably not 3, but also somehow barely acknowledging 2. 

I truly believe Clase blew the ALCS but it will never come out, and they will just go after the stupid 'ball on first pitch' thing

I truly believe there are some other cases out there just as bad, that we may, or may not ever know about.

I don't believe Jays are tanking on purpose though, just major undisclosed injuries ...

3. It's everywhere.  Everyone is blowing everything on purpose for the gamblers.

Classic "your mom" joke inserted here. 

Of course gambling is involved in baseball, always has been, always will be. Weirdly though, gambling sites being legalized actually make it easier to catch those involved because there's now a record of every bet placed and it's easy as hell to see irregularities and match them up with individual patterns from a player. 

The amount of coordination to have an entire team tank a full game, series or even to blow a huge lead though would require a huge amount of coordination with players on both teams involved, plus the patterns in changes in betting would be completely obvious. Like, sure, when a team takes a big lead there will always be a few degenerates that toss a few bucks on the comeback to try and score big, but when those patterns fall outside the norms in a large way, you can bet it's being investigated. 

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

The amount of coordination to have an entire team tank a full game, series or even to blow a huge lead though would require a huge amount of coordination with players on both teams involved, plus the patterns in changes in betting would be completely obvious.

It would have to be sophisticated to work.  So the idea that it can be happening at a large scale is unlikely. 

Did Emanuel Clase blow the ALCS?   Was rocked game 3 and 4 after being untouchable all year.  Gave up more in those 2 games I think then regular season combined.  

Cleveland won game 3 despite Clase blowing it ... so you are right there that a gambler would not get a guarantee if he just hired Clase. 

The betting on individual player performance is way more easily manipulated. 

[John_Havok]

35 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

It would have to be sophisticated to work.  So the idea that it can be happening at a large scale is unlikely. 

Did Emanuel Clase blow the ALCS?   Was rocked game 3 and 4 after being untouchable all year.  Gave up more in those 2 games I think then regular season combined.  

Cleveland won game 3 despite Clase blowing it ... so you are right there that a gambler would not get a guarantee if he just hired Clase. 

The betting on individual player performance is way more easily manipulated. 

Who knows if he really "blew it". Guys can put great swings on meatballs and hit them right at the defense too even if he's trying to suck

[jaysblue]

1 hour ago, Olerud363.354 said:

The betting on individual player performance is way more easily manipulated. 

I think it probably happens more often than what actually becomes public. The cases we hear about whether it’s Clase in MLB or some of the incidents involving NBA players are just the ones that get investigated and exposed. I’d be surprised if every case of attempted manipulation has already been caught.

I also think the level of temptation probably depends a lot on the player and their situation. Is a star making $25–30 million per year going to risk his entire career and reputation to manipulate a prop or game? Probably less likely. But could a fringe bullpen arm making close to the league minimum, or a player in his late 20s or early 30s trying to hang onto a career, potentially be more vulnerable to that kind of temptation? I think that’s a much more realistic concern.

That’s also why restrictions on certain types of betting make some sense in lower-paying leagues. Take the CFL, for example. If player props are more restricted during the regular season, there’s at least an argument that it reduces some of the opportunities for manipulation. When players are making significantly less money than stars in MLB, the NBA or NFL, the risk-reward equation can look very different.

That doesn’t mean players in lower-paying leagues are fixing games or props, but from an integrity standpoint, it makes sense to be more cautious about how many individual player markets are offered.

[jaysblue]

1 hour ago, Olerud363.354 said:

It would have to be sophisticated to work.  So the idea that it can be happening at a large scale is unlikely. 

Did Emanuel Clase blow the ALCS?   Was rocked game 3 and 4 after being untouchable all year.  Gave up more in those 2 games I think then regular season combined.  

Cleveland won game 3 despite Clase blowing it ... so you are right there that a gambler would not get a guarantee if he just hired Clase. 

I don’t think Clase intentionally blew the ALCS, unless something came out during the investigation that specifically suggested otherwise.

That said, I do question the integrity of North American sports more than I used to. At the end of the day, professional sports are both competition and a massive entertainment business. Would MLB have preferred a Yankees-Dodgers World Series over Guardians-Dodgers in 2024 from a ratings and revenue standpoint? I think the answer is pretty obvious. Likewise, leagues, broadcasters and advertisers generally benefit far more based on a certain matchup or from a playoff series going six or seven games than ending in four or five.

I agree that the idea of everything being scripted down to the exact outcome is highly unlikely. But could there occasionally be outside influences around games, whether through officiating, umpiring, individual participants, or the enormous betting ecosystem surrounding professional sports? I don’t think it’s unreasonable to at least question that possibility.

That’s different from saying games are routinely fixed. I just have a lot less confidence than I used to that everything surrounding these leagues is completely insulated from financial and entertainment interests.

 

[jaysblue]

I saw something the other day regarding the Dodgers that caught my attention.

The Dodgers are probably one of the most heavily bet teams in baseball, if not worldwide. And because their moneyline often doesn’t offer much value, a lot of bettors tend to play them on the -1.5 run line instead.

That makes their 2026 run-line record pretty striking.

Through September 18th, Los Angeles had been the betting favourite in 148 games and had gone just 62-86 against the spread in those games. In other words, they failed to cover the favourite run line 86 times.

After another cover, that put them at 63 covers and 86 failures in 149 games.

That works out to a cover rate of just 42.3%, meaning they failed to cover 57.7% of the time.

Am I a little skeptical when I see a number like that, especially considering how heavily the Dodgers are bet and how much better they are on paper than most teams? Sure.

[SeranthonySantander]

The dodgers and Indians should lose their teams.

[John_Havok]

22 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

I saw something the other day regarding the Dodgers that caught my attention.

The Dodgers are probably one of the most heavily bet teams in baseball, if not worldwide. And because their moneyline often doesn’t offer much value, a lot of bettors tend to play them on the -1.5 run line instead.

That makes their 2026 run-line record pretty striking.

Through September 18th, Los Angeles had been the betting favourite in 148 games and had gone just 62-86 against the spread in those games. In other words, they failed to cover the favourite run line 86 times.

After another cover, that put them at 63 covers and 86 failures in 149 games.

That works out to a cover rate of just 42.3%, meaning they failed to cover 57.7% of the time.

Am I a little skeptical when I see a number like that, especially considering how heavily the Dodgers are bet and how much better they are on paper than most teams? Sure.

Lots of that though is what you said, the Dodgers are one of the most heavily bet teams out there. Same with the Cubs at home... The Yankees... its actually because they're bet on so heavily that anything even looks suspect, but at the same time, them being bet on heavily isn't out of the norm at all so it's not really suspect. 

If the Marlins suddenly had the same betting volume as the Dodgers... THAT would be suspect. 

 

[Olerud363.354]

31 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

I don’t think Clase intentionally blew the ALCS, unless something came out during the investigation that specifically suggested otherwise.

What I wonder though is would it be easier for weird bets on ALCS to go unnoticed.   Like millions of people will be betting on the ALCS.   

How many people bet on Emanuel Clase to throw a ball first pitch?  So few that any weird behavior is probably easily detectable.

So if (god-forbid) someone wanted to rig something, it might be harder to detect the strange betting patterns.

So if Clase has gotten caught for some oddball small thing, that actually would be easy to detect (I think).  What faith do we have that his 0.5 ERA in the regular season and 15.00 in the ALCS doesn't have funny business behind it. 

Conditional probability, condition on Clase being awesome, and conditional on Clase known to being involved with Gamblers what are the chances of...   

[Olerud363.354]

4 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

If the Marlins suddenly had the same betting volume as the Dodgers... THAT would be suspect. 

If they are playing the Pirates yes. 

If Marlins play Dodgers don't they have to adjust the odds so they get enough on both sides that the house always wins? 

I think that is what I was getting at with Yankees and Cleveland.  So many people would be betting on those games, they'd adjust odds to make sure they had lots on both sides and something fishy would get lost in the volume. 

With the first pitch thing I'd they'd be like 'who the f*** is this weirdo that won Clase first pitch 15 times in a row?'

[jaysblue]

59 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Lots of that though is what you said, the Dodgers are one of the most heavily bet teams out there. Same with the Cubs at home... The Yankees... its actually because they're bet on so heavily that anything even looks suspect, but at the same time, them being bet on heavily isn't out of the norm at all so it's not really suspect. 

If the Marlins suddenly had the same betting volume as the Dodgers... THAT would be suspect. 

 

I’m not saying it’s suspect that a lot of people bet on the Dodgers. What I find suspect is their record covering the -1.5 run line, where they’re just 62-86 against the spread in those games.

Sportsbooks definitely benefit and cash in when the Dodgers fail to cover, especially if more money is coming in on them to cover the -1.5 than on the other side.

[SeranthonySantander]

Maybe dodgers just suck 

I will say I am confident they won’t win this year 

 

[SeranthonySantander]

So there is money to be made bet against dodger 

[Nexii]

Well I think usually it's not even about the risk/return money wise. The psychology of it is probably even stranger than we think. I think to a lot of E-sports players who threw games for almost nothing and were banned for life. Or even Clase, the small kickbacks he got wouldn't have even covered the future salary loss.

I think what more often happens is it's done for the thrill of getting away with it. Or it's done as a sort of 'favor' to friends/family. That is, it's more of an emotional thing when done than rational. And so giving harsher punishments has some deterrant but less than we might think.

But I also think as MLB gets more in bed with gambling sites, the potential for really big scandals occurring is increasing. We think of this from a player perspective, but the people who run gambling sites get tempted too. It might not even take a whole company being in on it. Again, it's not rational but this is how it goes. 

Would be an interesting FanGraphs article. Were there more post-season games than pure odds would dictate? Doesn't seem like it would be hard to calculate out.

[Spanky__99]

jaysblue's been losing his shirt lately and needs to vent, like I've said before buddy, 1-800-GAMBLER, it'll save you from this fella.

[Spanky__99]

Just stop.... 😅

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, Nexii said:

Well I think usually it's not even about the risk/return money wise. The psychology of it is probably even stranger than we think. I think to a lot of E-sports players who threw games for almost nothing and were banned for life. Or even Clase, the small kickbacks he got wouldn't have even covered the future salary loss.

I think what more often happens is it's done for the thrill of getting away with it. Or it's done as a sort of 'favor' to friends/family. That is, it's more of an emotional thing when done than rational. And so giving harsher punishments has some deterrant but less than we might think.

But I also think as MLB gets more in bed with gambling sites, the potential for really big scandals occurring is increasing. We think of this from a player perspective, but the people who run gambling sites get tempted too. It might not even take a whole company being in on it. Again, it's not rational but this is how it goes. 

Would be an interesting FanGraphs article. Were there more post-season games than pure odds would dictate? Doesn't seem like it would be hard to calculate out.

Postseason would be a troublesome exercise in the way you suggest given the inherent small sample size error bars

[Spanky__99]

1 minute ago, John_Havok said:

Postseason would be a troublesome exercise in the way you suggest given the inherent small sample size error bars

And that right there is Clase's defense. Well, said.

[Nexii]

11 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Postseason would be a troublesome exercise in the way you suggest given the inherent small sample size error bars

Yea I did some rough math. It was 43 games in both 2024 and 2025 which is the exact expected, if every game was 50/50.

32 is minimum possible, 53 max. Yea very small sample size.