Blue Jays (Bieber) vs Rays (Seymour): 08/20/26, 1:10 PM

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

Gentlemen, he has an xERA and FIP over five. 

0.2 fWAR in 11 starts. 

89 Stuff+ 

He's a performance risk AND a massive injury risk 

There is no legit reason to QO that. You let him walk and try to do better in FA. Plenty of fish in the sea. 

Dustin May and Nick Martinez signed for like $12M last year. 

Or you offer him $14M or whatever on a pillow deal as soon as the season is over. His free agent viability will be very similar to last offseason except he's one hear older and will be seen as somehow even less reliable. Even if he is solid from now until October.

all fair points. i just would rather get a pick if he signs elsewhere and don't really care if he signs for 1 year 23 as the worst case scenario of offering the QO. 

Absolutely youre right that he isn't worth it in a vacuum, he sucks enough that he shouldnt even sniff that kind of AAV

[G-Snarls]

14 hours ago, glory said:

Bieber s***ing the bed against the Nats before the deadline might end up being a blessing if he’s back to being this effective. I didn’t think he was going to be a QO candidate with the way he was looking earlier but he just might if he keeps this up.

Winning 2/3 at the Trop, which probably should have been a sweep, is a good sign. Just get through this weekend and the schedule eases up big time.

Being provocative a bit LMFAO

 

[Omar]

15 minutes ago, hanton said:

...I don't even get how it can't do the math, they have all the coordinates of the ball and the fielder including speed of both - must be some other variable that messes it up

Yeah, whenever the fielder doesn't have to move laterally (to his right or left) and just moves directly forward and backward the numbers can get wonky.  Does the algorithm then interpret that as an easy route?

[Laika]

5 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

all fair points. i just would rather get a pick if he signs elsewhere and don't really care if he signs for 1 year 23 as the worst case scenario of offering the QO. 

Absolutely youre right that he isn't worth it in a vacuum, he sucks enough that he shouldnt even sniff that kind of AAV

Bieber would just snap accept the QO without having to think 

[John_Havok]

Just now, Laika said:

Bieber would just snap accept the QO without having to think 

yeah, i'm cool with that as a worst case. No such thing as a bad 1 year deal. 

[james jones]

 Yeah, Bieber's number looks bad. I personally don't want the Jays to re-sign him.

[Laika]

5 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

yeah, i'm cool with that as a worst case. No such thing as a bad 1 year deal. 

I want a better starting pitcher 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Terminator said:

Bieber is kind of cooked.

There was some hope that he could return to form, but that ship is sailing.

It’s important to remember that his TJS masked a decline that was already happening before the injury. Now it’s been almost 2.5 years since the surgery and he still hasn’t gotten back to where he was. At this point, it’s getting pretty hard to see that happening.

Look at it this way: he took the $16M player option last year, and since then he’s had an even worse season with even more injury and reliability concerns piled on. He’s another year removed from TJS and still hasn’t gotten back to form. Even his projections are pretty mid at this point and we couldn't even trade him for a sack of marbles at the deadline.

If you sign him, can you even reasonably expect him to get through spring training healthy, take the ball every fifth day, and give you 150+ innings? Hell no. And if you’re paying a starter $22M, you should at least have some confidence that he can do that.

 

 

 

I think this is assessment is maybe a little premature. Bieber has been improving more and more as the season progresses to the point where he's performing like a solid mid rotation starter in recent months. He had trouble commanding his arsenal initially coming back from the forearm issue but outside of the obvious outlier appearance against the Phillies where he couldn't grip the baseball the command issues are largely a thing of the past. It's only a single outing but Bieber produced a stuff+ rating of 98 to go with a location+ rating of 112 which is far from indicative of a pitcher who has little to offer. In fact his season Stuff+ rating is back to 90 and trending upwards as the season progresses with 92 in his last 7 outings which is right where he was in his 2022/2023 seasons with Cleveland. I think this pitcher is back to full health and has a lot of potential value to offer even if it's at the rate of a qualifying offer. Mid rotation arms are earning $20+ million per season in today's MLB and I believe that if Bieber finishes the year strong he's going to find multi year offers in this range if/when MLB is ready to return from lockout. This isn't to say I'm Bieber or bust for a rotation spot next season but the club could do far worse than bringing back Bieber on a 1 year deal if he were to accept a qualifying offer.

[hanton]

22 minutes ago, Omar said:

Yeah, whenever the fielder doesn't have to move laterally (to his right or left) and just moves directly forward and backward the numbers can get wonky.  Does the algorithm then interpret that as an easy route?

seemed to underestimat the difficutly going back - by a huge amount - and overestimate coming in. 

[G-Snarls]

Beat it, nerds... with your fancy pants charts and s***

We want Bieber extended cause he won a Cy Young award and his last start he beat the Rays in Tampa 

[jaysblue]

I also think it makes sense to go into the season with more than just five or six legitimate rotation options. We saw this year that even having seven or eight starters on paper wasn’t enough once the injuries started piling up.

1. Cease
2. Soriano
3. Yesavage
4. TBA/Gausman/Bieber
5. Ponce
6. Arrighetti
7. Miles - will he be used out of the pen?
8. Tiedemann - probably used out of the pen?
9. Berrios - likely not ready until later in 2027 anyway
10. Bloss
11. Francis

They still need to add another starter, whether that’s Gausman, Bieber or someone else.

I agree with Laika that the goal should be to aim higher, especially when you’re talking about someone you’d trust to start postseason games, but who is realistically out there? The Jays probably aren’t signing Skubal, Peralta, Ryan or King unless they’re prepared to open the wallet again. After that, maybe you’re looking at guys like Soroka, Gray, Boyd, May, Rogers or Bubic in the next tier. 

And if Miles and Tiedemann ultimately end up working primarily out of the bullpen, the starting depth gets thin pretty quickly. At that point, behind the main five you’re basically down to Arrighetti, Bloss and Francis. Given how many starters teams burn through over 162 games, I’d much rather go into 2027 with too much rotation depth than not enough.

[glory]

I don't think anyone thinks Bieber is worth the QO at this moment. It's if he maintains this level of performance for the rest of the season. If he does and it's still just smoke and mirrors (basically 2024-25 Berrios) then yeah it's probably an unnecessary overpay even on a 1 year deal, but we have to see what the under the hood numbers look like by the end of the season. 

[Terminator]

15 minutes ago, max silver said:

I think this is assessment is maybe a little premature. Bieber has been improving more and more as the season progresses to the point where he's performing like a solid mid rotation starter in recent months. He had trouble commanding his arsenal initially coming back from the forearm issue but outside of the obvious outlier appearance against the Phillies where he couldn't grip the baseball the command issues are largely a thing of the past. It's only a single outing but Bieber produced a stuff+ rating of 98 to go with a location+ rating of 112 which is far from indicative of a pitcher who has little to offer. In fact his season Stuff+ rating is back to 90 and trending upwards as the season progresses with 92 in his last 7 outings which is right where he was in his 2022/2023 seasons with Cleveland. I think this pitcher is back to full health and has a lot of potential value to offer even if it's at the rate of a qualifying offer. Mid rotation arms are earning $20+ million per season in today's MLB and I believe that if Bieber finishes the year strong he's going to find multi year offers in this range if/when MLB is ready to return from lockout. This isn't to say I'm Bieber or bust for a rotation spot next season but the club could do far worse than bringing back Bieber on a 1 year deal if he were to accept a qualifying offer.

These are fair points. If he pitches well enough down the stretch and into the playoffs to change his projections, which are pretty mid right now, I could change my tune.

Even then, his projections are worse than Cody Ponce’s right now and he'll have thrown a combined 120 innings over the past three years including whatever weird injury he had to start this season.

We already have the Ponce and Spencer Miles types in house. With all this money coming off the books and basically no bats on the market, I’d rather shop at the top of the pitching market and find another ace to pair with Cease. I don’t think Bieber is that guy anymore.

He’s a #4 right now with #3 upside and a huge reliability risk. I mean how could anyone make a bet on him to pitch 150 innings next season right now? And the league has also changed since he was an ace. I’m not sure 92 mph fastballs are enough to make him a frontline playoff starter anymore.

Seems like we should aim higher. He feels like a San Francisco Giant to me. We’re the big spending Toronto Blue Jays.

[Terminator]

16 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

I agree with Laika that the goal should be to aim higher, especially when you’re talking about someone you’d trust to start postseason games, but who is realistically out there? The Jays probably aren’t signing Skubal, Peralta, Ryan or King unless they’re prepared to open the wallet again. After that, maybe you’re looking at guys like Soroka, Gray, Boyd, May, Rogers or Bubic in the next tier. 

The only time the Jays aren't opening their wallet is when the Dodgers or Mets open their even bigger wallet. 
So I can't say Skubal is realistic but pretty much everyone else on this list is a realistic target. 

[jaysblue]

14 minutes ago, glory said:

I don't think anyone thinks Bieber is worth the QO at this moment. It's if he maintains this level of performance for the rest of the season. If he does and it's still just smoke and mirrors (basically 2024-25 Berrios) then yeah it's probably an unnecessary overpay even on a 1 year deal, but we have to see what the under the hood numbers look like by the end of the season. 

Yeah, ideally I’d prefer to bring him back for something closer to $12M rather than the QO. But if he finishes the season strong and looks healthy, I’m also not opposed to giving him the QO.

[jaysblue]

Just now, Terminator said:

The only time the Jays aren't opening their wallet is when the Dodgers or Mets open their even bigger wallet. 
So I can't say Skubal is realistic but pretty much everyone else on this list is a realistic target. 

Yeah, Peralta or Ryan would be really nice to have behind Cease. Adding one of those guys would push Soriano and Yesavage down into the #3/#4 spots and make the rotation look a lot deeper and more dangerous in a Postseason series. 

Maybe someone like Peralta or Ryan also looks at what the Jays have been able to unlock with Cease and sees Toronto as an attractive landing spot. If the organization is developing that kind of reputation with pitchers, it certainly can’t hurt when trying to recruit another high-end starter.

[G-Snarls]

9 minutes ago, Terminator said:

The only time the Jays aren't opening their wallet is when the Dodgers or Mets open their even bigger wallet. 
So I can't say Skubal is realistic but pretty much everyone else on this list is a realistic target. 

Yeah 

 

Ryu 

Gausman 

Cease 

 

The team will clearly open the coffers for the right starting pitchers.... They shop from the top shelf plenty often. 

[jaysblue]

3 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

Yeah 

 

Ryu 

Gausman 

Cease 

 

The team will clearly open the coffers for the right starting pitchers.... They shop from the top shelf plenty often. 

Great point.

And with the position-player market not looking especially attractive, I’d rather see them put that money toward another high-end starter like Peralta or Ryan. If you can add another arm capable of giving you a 4–5 WAR season, that could have a much bigger impact than overpaying for a bat you’re not really sold on.

 

[Terminator]

14 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Great point.

And with the position-player market not looking especially attractive, I’d rather see them put that money toward another high-end starter like Peralta or Ryan. If you can add another arm capable of giving you a 4–5 WAR season, that could have a much bigger impact than overpaying for a bat you’re not really sold on.

 

Yeah that makes sense to me.

The bats are obviously a mess and we need to make some changes there but it's hard to pinpoint where.

OF and DH seem to be the biggest holes as of now, but even then we have a ton of internal options. Young guys (McAdoo, Keys, Bateman, etc.) and players returning from injury (Barger, Taters) could conceivably cover those spots. There's always Lukes too.

But we need some outside help and if we acquire some new players we will have to ship some of the other guys out via trade. 

 

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, jaysblue said:

I also think it makes sense to go into the season with more than just five or six legitimate rotation options. We saw this year that even having seven or eight starters on paper wasn’t enough once the injuries started piling up.

1. Cease
2. Soriano
3. Yesavage
4. TBA/Gausman/Bieber
5. Ponce
6. Arrighetti
7. Miles - will he be used out of the pen?
8. Tiedemann - probably used out of the pen?
9. Berrios - likely not ready until later in 2027 anyway
10. Bloss
11. Francis

They still need to add another starter, whether that’s Gausman, Bieber or someone else.

I agree with Laika that the goal should be to aim higher, especially when you’re talking about someone you’d trust to start postseason games, but who is realistically out there? The Jays probably aren’t signing Skubal, Peralta, Ryan or King unless they’re prepared to open the wallet again. After that, maybe you’re looking at guys like Soroka, Gray, Boyd, May, Rogers or Bubic in the next tier. 

And if Miles and Tiedemann ultimately end up working primarily out of the bullpen, the starting depth gets thin pretty quickly. At that point, behind the main five you’re basically down to Arrighetti, Bloss and Francis. Given how many starters teams burn through over 162 games, I’d much rather go into 2027 with too much rotation depth than not enough.

All of this is true, but rotation depth on minor league deals or guys with options would need to be the play.

Cease, Soriano, Ponce. Yesavage and a signed starter #4 in your chart... only 1 can be optioned and that's Trey. Arrighetti is already depth in case Trey sux or someone gets hurt. Miles will be building up a starters workload in Buffalo most likely unless there's a lockout in which case he can't. 

Berrios, Bloss and Francis are all early to mid-season problems that will open the year on the 60 day IL, so theyre not really a factor yet.

Truly I think the SP ship has sailed on Ricky T. Elite backend pen arm is now the ceiling which is still a great piece to have.

 

[max silver]

4 hours ago, Terminator said:

These are fair points. If he pitches well enough down the stretch and into the playoffs to change his projections, which are pretty mid right now, I could change my tune.

Even then, his projections are worse than Cody Ponce’s right now and he'll have thrown a combined 120 innings over the past three years including whatever weird injury he had to start this season.

We already have the Ponce and Spencer Miles types in house. With all this money coming off the books and basically no bats on the market, I’d rather shop at the top of the pitching market and find another ace to pair with Cease. I don’t think Bieber is that guy anymore.

He’s a #4 right now with #3 upside and a huge reliability risk. I mean how could anyone make a bet on him to pitch 150 innings next season right now? And the league has also changed since he was an ace. I’m not sure 92 mph fastballs are enough to make him a frontline playoff starter anymore.

Seems like we should aim higher. He feels like a San Francisco Giant to me. We’re the big spending Toronto Blue Jays.

I think it's actually a bit of a plus if you are able to get Bieber on a 1 year deal vs needing to make a sizeable multi year commitment for a similar calibre of pitcher. The club does have a lot of money coming off of the books, but one concern over aiming higher is the possibility of an incoming salary cap as that would limit the total available spending money for the front office. I would hope that previously existing contracts could be grandfathered somehow to lessen the impact on the bigger spenders to improve their clubs moving forward but it remains to be seen if MLB and the MLBPA would be willing to lose a full season of play in the battle over salary cap implementation.

[Spanky__99]

14 hours ago, Terminator said:

The only time the Jays aren't opening their wallet is when the Dodgers or Mets open their even bigger wallet. 
So I can't say Skubal is realistic but pretty much everyone else on this list is a realistic target. 

Skubal for if just not to just make the other teams pay.

We'll have money...

 

[John_Havok]

12 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

Skubal for if just not to just make the other teams pay.

We'll have money...

 

Would love to see Skubal/Cease 1-2 punch, but it'll be damn expensive and risky. 

On the plus side, they have cost certainty already in Trey, Ponce and virtually their entire bullpen so the money is certainly there.