Blue Jays (Bieber) vs Padres (Sears): 7/10/26, 9:40pm

[Jays24]

This Ty France guy would look good in a Jays uni

[bronson44]

It's really nice to face other offensively inept teams.

[Brownie19]

10 hours ago, hanton said:

It's weird because Buck got better as he aged, Dan seems to be the opposite, I don't mind Sidall

I think some nostalgia kicked in when we found out Buck was sick, we worried and knew he may not call games much longer.  It did for me.  I gave him the benefit of the doubt.

But Buck was pretty awful as he aged. The game passed him by. He was so disgruntled about the changes within the game.  He's a legend still.

I still think Dan is great.  Could be a little less monotone.

[Jays24]

Just look at how great Hoffman has been since moved out of the 9th inning role.  

[Jays24]

Rogers is unbelievable man.  

[Eat My Shatkins]

Come on Louie. Finish this off dude

[Eat My Shatkins]

Why do we have to sweat here? 

Lmao

[Smokinitup420]

Louie this is not a good time for ur first blown save 

[ComeTogether]

Finish it 

[ComeTogether]

Win!

[Jays24]

Phew lol

[ComeTogether]

45-49

Get back to 500 

[Smokinitup420]

Woohooo go jays!!! 

[Eat My Shatkins]

World series will be easy to win

[Omar]

The Jays have unlocked the key to winning games.  Play crappy teams.

 

 

[jaysblue]

34 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Just look at how great Hoffman has been since moved out of the 9th inning role.  

I don't understand why some on here can't just accept the facts that he's a better pitcher when he's not being used as a closer. 

Look at his two seasons with the Phillies before signing with Toronto. 

[jaysblue]

I'm going to buy an Okamoto jersey. How many HR's do you think he finishes with? O/U 35?

[jaysblue]

When the Jays were down 2-1, was saying they need to get to the Padres before they bring in their late-inning weapons. Huge 5th inning and taking the lead there was so important. Didn't want to have to face guys like Bradgley, Morejon and Miller in the late innings. 

[Laika]

7 hours ago, jaysblue said:

I don't understand why some on here can't just accept the facts that he's a better pitcher when he's not being used as a closer. 

Look at his two seasons with the Phillies before signing with Toronto. 

Because the sample size does not let anybody conclude this 

Your definition of "worse" is statistically carried by obviously random variance in things like BABIP and HR rate 

Basically we are scientists and you are pleb 

[jaysblue]

48 minutes ago, Laika said:

Because the sample size does not let anybody conclude this 

Your definition of "worse" is statistically carried by obviously random variance in things like BABIP and HR rate 

Basically we are scientists and you are pleb 

The smug “we are scientists and you are pleb” routine doesn’t make your argument stronger. It just makes it sound like you’re hiding behind spreadsheets while ignoring part of the actual sport.

I’m not saying BABIP, HR rate, or pitch mix, don’t matter. Of course they do. But pretending those are the only things that matter is where I disagree. Baseball isn’t played in a lab. There is a psychological component to the game, especially for relievers, and especially when you’re talking about the 9th inning.

Acting like there’s no sample size here is ridiculous. We’re not talking about two bad outings; we’re comparing two full seasons in Philadelphia against his 2025 season and the early part of 2026 in Toronto.

Hoffman’s issue has never been that he lacks stuff. The stuff is clearly good enough. The concern is what happens when the command starts to go and the inning begins to snowball. That’s where mound presence, composure, role, leverage, and confidence matter.

You can dismiss that as “random variance” all you want, but not everything in baseball is neatly explained by BABIP and HR rate. If your entire argument is that anything outside the spreadsheet is fantasy, then you’re not analyzing the full picture - you’re just choosing the parts of the game that are easiest to quantify.

[Olerud363.354]

27 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

2023 and 2024 seasons in Philly vs. his 2025 and early part of the 2026 season in Toronto. 

To me that's a large sample size.

In 2024 he had 10 saves and pitched 23 incredible innings in the 9th.   Life time 4.7 ERA in 9th, 3.5 in 8th, 4.7 or so in 7th (hypothetically a few of the 7th innings could be as a starter, but I doubt he reached the 7th much as a starter).  Career wise he is all over the place good and bad.  His first crack as a reliever I think he had a 9ish ERA.   The stats perhaps tell a story of a guy who has a true talent 3.5 ERA as a reliever and like anything in life it goes up and down and randomly.  Or maybe a guy who has elite talent but loses it occasionally, but not entirely correlated with which inning he is pitching.  The Baltimore Orioles medical reports tell the story of a guy with a sketchy shoulder, that maybe hurts randomly sometimes.  Not sure which explanation is best, but there are explanations that fit better than 'inning pitched'.   At times (23 innings in 2024) when going his best has been awesome in the 9th. 

 

Jeff Hoffman 2024 by inning, screenshot from basereference.com

[Laika]

2 hours ago, jaysblue said:

The smug “we are scientists and you are pleb” routine doesn’t make your argument stronger. It just makes it sound like you’re hiding behind spreadsheets while ignoring part of the actual sport.

I’m not saying BABIP, HR rate, or pitch mix, don’t matter. Of course they do. But pretending those are the only things that matter is where I disagree. Baseball isn’t played in a lab. There is a psychological component to the game, especially for relievers, and especially when you’re talking about the 9th inning.

Acting like there’s no sample size here is ridiculous. We’re not talking about two bad outings; we’re comparing two full seasons in Philadelphia against his 2025 season and the early part of 2026 in Toronto.

Hoffman’s issue has never been that he lacks stuff. The stuff is clearly good enough. The concern is what happens when the command starts to go and the inning begins to snowball. That’s where mound presence, composure, role, leverage, and confidence matter.

You can dismiss that as “random variance” all you want, but not everything in baseball is neatly explained by BABIP and HR rate. If your entire argument is that anything outside the spreadsheet is fantasy, then you’re not analyzing the full picture - you’re just choosing the parts of the game that are easiest to quantify.

Pleb diatribe 

If he had the ninth inning yips it would show up in tons of peripheral stats and not just surface level garbage like ERA and blown saves 

[max silver]

16 hours ago, jaysblue said:

I don't understand why some on here can't just accept the facts that he's a better pitcher when he's not being used as a closer. 

Look at his two seasons with the Phillies before signing with Toronto. 

Because it's not that cut and dry and is a lot more complicated topic than simply pointing to the inning he's pitching in. It's not a coincidence that he's changed his pitch mix to something closer to what he was using with the Phillies and found more success.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I'm just pumped that Hoffman finally isn't getting BABIP'ed to death. Since June 4th he has a 0.69 ERA. That late inning trio the Jays have going has been unreal for over a month now.

Varland, Rogers, Hoffman

 

I don't know if the Jays have ever had a three headed bullpen monster like that before.

 

Too bad Yimi's arm fell off, could be a 4 headed BP monster.