Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2026)

[jaysblue]

1 hour ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

If you get two players who give you 6.3 fWAR over two seasons and all you give up is Spencer phucking Horwitz, it's not a bad trade.

And paying for those two didn't stop the Jays from adding anyone. 

You're right, it isn't hard to figure out.

That’s not really the argument though.

Nobody is saying giving up Horwitz was some massive loss. The issue is paying premium money for two defense-first players who provide limited offensive impact, especially when you’re already trying to add more thump to the lineup. 6.3 fWAR over two seasons isn’t exactly some huge win. That’s two players, two roster spots and two full seasons of combined production. Useful? Sure. Something to rave about? Not really.

6.3 fWAR over two seasons sounds nice in a vacuum, but WAR doesn’t suddenly make contract value irrelevant. Gimenez is making $23M next season and Straw wasn't exactly cheap for a 4th/5th OF type. 

And saying “it didn’t stop them from adding anyone” doesn’t mean those dollars couldn’t have been allocated more efficiently elsewhere. So yeah, it really isn’t hard to figure out - the trade cost was fine. The payroll efficiency and roster construction are what you could question.

[jaysblue]

7 hours ago, Jays24 said:

I dont get how this is hard to understand, the Jays dont have an endless budget and we have are paying Gimenez a lot of money for only his defense that could be used to get better players.  If you havent noticed, the Jays suck at hitting and Gimenez is part of that sucking.  

I have said countless times that defensive WAR is overvalued for me but thats a different discussion.  Both Gimenez and Straw are/were negative contracts and thats not even debatable.  I actually like both of them but at about half of what they were being paid.  

That’s the bigger issue for me. Many other teams like Tampa or Cleveland routinely develop these types of players internally instead of having to trade assets or spend premium money to acquire them.

There’s value in Gimenez and Straw, but ideally those are the kinds of roles your system should be able to fill more cheaply. I like Gimenez and Straw too, but the Jays are absolutely paying a premium for those roles. Just because they can afford it doesn’t mean it’s efficient.

[jaysblue]

As for Grichuk, that’s exactly why I could see the Jays being one of the favourites to land him. Atkins has never been afraid to pay a premium for a specific role if he thinks it fills a need. With both Lukes and Barger on the roster, they likely need a power-hitting RHB to complement them, and Grichuk fits that role pretty well.

The market for right-handed power is also pretty thin, and Atkins usually prefers filling obvious holes early rather than waiting around and hoping something better develops later. Because of that, I could easily see Toronto paying Grichuk a bit of a premium on a one- or two-year deal in comparison to other teams.

I don’t think signing Grichuk would stop them from pursuing an everyday outfielder either, whether that’s Suzuki, Happ or someone else. Those two moves can coexist.

[Brownie19]

I'm happy to admit the Gimenez trade hasn't worked out as well as they expected.  The beauty with him though is the defense and base running raise the floor a lot.

We paid him $15M last year for 2.8 WAR and $10M in 2025 for 1.0 WAR in an injury ridden season.  Even if you think defensive WAR isn't worth as much as offensive WAR, those results aren't terrible and certainly were not crippling.  They almost highlight just how much surplus value he'd provide if he could be a 95 wRC+ bat.  It shouldn't be difficult to see why this trade was made when he was entering his age 26 season and had 2 previous seasons with a wRC+ >95.

Based on the results to date, I'd be hard pressed to call this a massive failure.  If this is one of the biggest complaints about the GM, then you're probably in a good place.

Moving forward, the contract gets more expensive.  3 more years with an AAV of $23M.  He's still just entering his age 28 season, so physical decline shouldn't be an issue over the remainder of the deal and there is a possibility he's actually just entering his prime.  I think we'd all like to see improvement with the bat.  A wRC+ >90 would be great.  95+ and he's back to providing surplus value.  If his bat remains in the low 80's, then he's probably providing 2.7 to 3 WAR for $23M.  Not great, but still not crippling.  If his bat drops below 80, then it gets painful.

Time to earn your paycheck Popkins.

Also - after watching the defense in the playoffs, I'm not sure I buy the narrative that defensive WAR is overvalued quite as much as I may have 6 months ago.  

For the haters - how much WAR does Gimenez need to provide to justify $23M?  What's the over/under?  3.5 WAR?

 

[Laika]

Surely Grichuk is no longer a CF option though. I expect the team to prioritize a CF capable guy who can be a soft side platoon for Bateman if his bat struggles. 

It's too bad Lukes is a lefty. It just always seems like he's an awkward fit until someone gets hurt. 

[Brownie19]

Just now, Laika said:

Surely Grichuk is no longer a CF option though. I expect the team to prioritize a CF capable guy who can be a soft side platoon for Bateman if his bat struggles. 

It's too bad Lukes is a lefty. It just always seems like he's an awkward fit until someone gets hurt. 

Agreed.  I don't see Grichuk as an option unless we've made a trade and secured another viable option in CF.

[Terminator]

Geezus I make one little joke about Straw's option being 20% of the Guardians' offseason budget only to return to the board to see that it ignited a two page argument on Andres Gimenez

[Brownie19]

2 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Geezus I make one little joke about Straw's option being 20% of the Guardians' offseason budget only to return to the board to see that it ignited a two page argument on Andres Gimenez

Hey we gotta talk about something...

[Spanky__99]

4 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

I'm happy to admit the Gimenez trade hasn't worked out as well as they expected.  The beauty with him though is the defense and base running raise the floor a lot.

We paid him $15M last year for 2.8 WAR and $10M in 2025 for 1.0 WAR in an injury ridden season.  Even if you think defensive WAR isn't worth as much as offensive WAR, those results aren't terrible and certainly were not crippling.  They almost highlight just how much surplus value he'd provide if he could be a 95 wRC+ bat.  It shouldn't be difficult to see why this trade was made when he was entering his age 26 season and had 2 previous seasons with a wRC+ >95.

Based on the results to date, I'd be hard pressed to call this a massive failure.  If this is one of the biggest complaints about the GM, then you're probably in a good place.

Moving forward, the contract gets more expensive.  3 more years with an AAV of $23M.  He's still just entering his age 28 season, so physical decline shouldn't be an issue over the remainder of the deal and there is a possibility he's actually just entering his prime.  I think we'd all like to see improvement with the bat.  A wRC+ >90 would be great.  95+ and he's back to providing surplus value.  If his bat remains in the low 80's, then he's probably providing 2.7 to 3 WAR for $23M.  Not great, but still not crippling.  If his bat drops below 80, then it gets painful.

Time to earn your paycheck Popkins.

Also - after watching the defense in the playoffs, I'm not sure I buy the narrative that defensive WAR is overvalued quite as much as I may have 6 months ago.  

For the haters - how much WAR does Gimenez need to provide to justify $23M?  What's the over/under?  3.5 WAR?

 

Player Tier (Projected WAR)	Average Cost per WAR in Free Agency
2+ WAR (Stars / Starters)	~$12.84 million to $13.9 million
1 to 2 WAR (Role Players)	~$8.51 million to $11.1 million
0 to 1 WAR (Depth / Bench)	~$6.74 million to $7.7 million
Overall Free Agent Average (Single-Tier)	~$11.23 million per WAR

He's been worth every penny of that contract so far, same goes for Straw., these guys don't know what they're talking about. Bro, came up with his own analytics, jays24WAR... can't wait to see the data.  

 

[max silver]

33 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

Player Tier (Projected WAR)	Average Cost per WAR in Free Agency
2+ WAR (Stars / Starters)	~$12.84 million to $13.9 million
1 to 2 WAR (Role Players)	~$8.51 million to $11.1 million
0 to 1 WAR (Depth / Bench)	~$6.74 million to $7.7 million
Overall Free Agent Average (Single-Tier)	~$11.23 million per WAR

He's been worth every penny of that contract so far, same goes for Straw., these guys don't know what they're talking about. Bro, came up with his own analytics, jays24WAR... can't wait to see the data.  

 

I think both of Straw and Gimenez were largely closer to being even value wise vs being massive overpays. There is little to no surplus value in either of these players but these contracts were far from being the massive issue that some are claiming, particularly on a luxury tax team with the type of financial resources of the Blue Jays. I do tend to agree with the point that the club needs to explore all avenues towards adding more offensive impact and that there are too many low power/contact bats on the roster presently and the defensive/offensive WAR blend could use some fine tuning. 

[Spanky__99]

They'll be getting OBP and ISO to address the lineup, plus a healthy Bam-Bam and Santander and they should be fine. I ain't worried about the offseason at this point. 

[max silver]

34 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

They'll be getting OBP and ISO to address the lineup, plus a healthy Bam-Bam and Santander and they should be fine. I ain't worried about the offseason at this point. 

I do expect there will be a blend of internal and external improvements to the roster. I believe there are sufficient free options in the outfield and infield for the team to address the external additions in this fashion. With regards to the internal improvements I believe it's close to a given that a typical Vlad season will return at minimum, and I do believe that Barger should be good to go offensively as the elbow had been bothering him dating back several years and the post surgery recovery period was stated as being only 6 months. With Santander and the extended/repeated difficulties his shoulder has been causing I don't think he can be fully relied on as it's far from guaranteed that he'll be able to get the shoulder back to the full strength required for him to returning to be a potent power bat.