Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2026)

[John_Havok]

Just now, Jays24 said:

So news isnt allowed to come out from a week ago?  Havent been following Jays much off the field lately.  Thank you

No. I just mean his injury type isn't one that has regular updates. He's done for the year almost guaranteed.

[Ryu In My House]

9 hours ago, Olerud363.354 said:

So they did not get under the payroll threshold to keep their draft pick?  

How does the 10 spot penalty work?  Is it on their actual pick position or their place in the standings?

If they finish 9th last and win the lottery does their 1 get sent back to 11?

If they finish 5th last but get screwed in the lottery to 8th, does the 8th get sent back to 18?

Not even close.

It is based on draft position, IIRC. If they are awful, but end up via lottery with the 7th pick, I think it becomes the 17th, If they get the 6th, they get the 6th, Could be wrong.

If Toronto finishes 9th-worst but wins the lottery and gets No. 1 overall, that pick is protected because it's a top-six pick.
 

If Toronto finishes 5th-worst, enters the lottery, and then ends up with No. 8, that pick is not a top-six pick, and it not protected and becomes 18th. This is how I read it. Could totally be wrong.

 

[Brownie19]

5 hours ago, Ryu In My House said:

Not even close.

It is based on draft position, IIRC. If they are awful, but end up via lottery with the 7th pick, I think it becomes the 17th, If they get the 6th, they get the 6th, Could be wrong.

If Toronto finishes 9th-worst but wins the lottery and gets No. 1 overall, that pick is protected because it's a top-six pick.
 

If Toronto finishes 5th-worst, enters the lottery, and then ends up with No. 8, that pick is not a top-six pick, and it not protected and becomes 18th. This is how I read it. Could totally be wrong.

 

That was my understanding.  But just based on what people have said here.  I haven't looked into it.

[Pendleton]

20 hours ago, Pendleton said:

 

Sign Austin Hays to platoon/pinch hit against lefties and send Schneider down 

Could have been us 

 

 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, Pendleton said:

Could have been us 

 

 

Indeed, but I suspect he opted to join a playoff team...

[jaysblue]

On 8/5/2026 at 5:37 PM, Omar said:

We got a knuckler!

 

RA Dickey won a Cy Young Award when he was 38, maybe Waldron could as well. 

[Forever92]

Pressure of the contract got to Vlad. Vernon Wells did same thing. 

[Jays24]

Report: Twins, Cubs tried to acquire Soriano from Blue Jays

https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3577891

Minnesota reportedly offered a package built around shortstop prospect Kaelen Culpepper, but Toronto made it clear it would only listen if the Twins also included their top pitching prospect, Riley Quick.

Culpepper, who is considered the Twins' No. 2 prospect by MLB Pipeline, was called up to the majors Friday and homered in his big-league debut.

The Cubs' offer to Toronto wasn't reported.

[Forever92]

If Jays get back to .500 could be in playoffs. Strong chance a .500 team makes playoffs in AL East 

[Eat My Shatkins]

Jays bolster their starting pitching at the deadline despite trading away Gausman. Within a week Yesavage, Arrighetti and Taillon all leave their game injured.

Season from hell man.

[gruber9292]

I wish we still had Gabriel Moreno instead of trading him for Varsho. That trade was a big loss as many suspected. 

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, gruber9292 said:

I wish we still had Gabriel Moreno instead of trading him for Varsho. That trade was a big loss as many suspected. 

[Forever92]

2 hours ago, gruber9292 said:

I wish we still had Gabriel Moreno instead of trading him for Varsho. That trade was a big loss as many suspected. 

I could never understand the love for Varsho. Played like a glorified Pillar 

[jaysblue]

8 minutes ago, Forever92 said:

I could never understand the love for Varsho. Played like a glorified Pillar 

Defensively, Varsho was still more superior than Pillar in CF. In 2022 and 2024, that was prime Varsho defensively. Offensively, Varsho came with more pop, upside and was a better overall all offensive player when he was going right. Pillar couldn't even crack a 100wRC+more than once. Pillar pretty much was similar to Ernie Clement right now. 

Overall, Varsho had his moments here for us in Toronto, but overall never reached the expectations we all had for him unfortunately. Some subpar performances and injuries played their part. Would have been nice to see what a healthy Varsho in 2025 could have done over a full season offensively. Likely would have been a 4-WAR outfielder with 30+ HR's if he played in 140-150 games. 

[Omar]

2 hours ago, Forever92 said:

I could never understand the love for Varsho. Played like a glorified Pillar 

Put up over 11 WAR between 2023-25 while providing Gold glove defense.  Also known to be a great teammate.   

You cant understand why people liked having him around?

[max silver]

3 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Defensively, Varsho was still more superior than Pillar in CF. In 2022 and 2024, that was prime Varsho defensively. Offensively, Varsho came with more pop, upside and was a better overall all offensive player when he was going right. Pillar couldn't even crack a 100wRC+more than once. 

Overall, Varsho had his moments here for us in Toronto, but overall never reached the expectations we all had for him unfortunately. Some subpar performances and injuries played their part. Would have been nice to see what a healthy Varsho in 2025 could have done over a full season offensively. Likely would have been a 4-WAR outfielder with 30+ HR's if he played in 140-150 games. 

I think the trade would have been pretty damn even WAR wise had the Blue Jays simply played Varsho in center field full time in 2023/2024. I agree it's too bad we didn't get a full season out of him in 2025 as he was a legitimate power threat, and on top of that the shoulder injury sapped him of arm strength as well which also detracted from the outfield value.

[jaysblue]

11 minutes ago, max silver said:

I think the trade would have been pretty damn even WAR wise had the Blue Jays simply played Varsho in center field full time in 2023/2024. I agree it's too bad we didn't get a full season out of him in 2025 as he was a legitimate power threat, and on top of that the shoulder injury sapped him of arm strength as well which also detracted from the outfield value.

Great point! 

[Brownie19]

Just another quick reminder.  Catchers often take time to reach their full potential - particularly with the bat, which often lags behind the defense.  We wanted to win in 2023-2026.  Instead of letting Moreno develop in a part-time role with Kirk, we got a starting OFer who already had some serious success (4.3 WAR season in 2022) and was entering his prime years.

There was always risk that Moreno would develop into a star at some point, just as there was also risk he'd flame out, or battle injuries (which he has).  If you think you can predict these outcomes with a high success rate, then you're pretty ignorant.

If you're in a position to win in 2023, you take the risk he becomes a star in 2026 or 2027 as that may be beyond your window of opportunity.

Did Varsho underperform in Toronto?  Yes, to some extent.  There was certainly a possibility he gave us 16+ WAR in his 4 years in Toronto.  But we ended up with a middling result that was impacted by a serious shoulder injury and an inconsistent bat.  These things happen.

Let's not pretend like even the all-time great GM's in baseball don't have similar results.  

[Forever92]

2 hours ago, Omar said:

Put up over 11 WAR between 2023-25 while providing Gold glove defense.  Also known to be a great teammate.   

You cant understand why people liked having him around?

Not for what we gave up. The 11 WAR must mostly be his glove. Because his OPS is around .700.  Pillar's WAR here was 2.0. No big difference 

 

Average centerfield WAR is 2.5. 

[Forever92]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Just another quick reminder.  Catchers often take time to reach their full potential - particularly with the bat, which often lags behind the defense.  We wanted to win in 2023-2026.  Instead of letting Moreno develop in a part-time role with Kirk, we got a starting OFer who already had some serious success (4.3 WAR season in 2022) and was entering his prime years.

There was always risk that Moreno would develop into a star at some point, just as there was also risk he'd flame out, or battle injuries (which he has).  If you think you can predict these outcomes with a high success rate, then you're pretty ignorant.

If you're in a position to win in 2023, you take the risk he becomes a star in 2026 or 2027 as that may be beyond your window of opportunity.

Did Varsho underperform in Toronto?  Yes, to some extent.  There was certainly a possibility he gave us 16+ WAR in his 4 years in Toronto.  But we ended up with a middling result that was impacted by a serious shoulder injury and an inconsistent bat.  These things happen.

Let's not pretend like even the all-time great GM's in baseball don't have similar results.  

There was another player in the deal

[Jays24]

Varsho didn't reach his potential with the bat but did with the glove.  Then his arm became comical after the shoulder surgery to the point hes not even that good right now.  

I still think he'll figure out how to maximize his power... I just thought it would have been during his contract year.  Sucks because he seems like a great guy/teammate.  

[Brownie19]

18 minutes ago, Forever92 said:

There was another player in the deal

Who had 1 year of control left.  He did have a great 2023 with the Diamondbacks, but re-signed him and he's been balls the last 2 seasons.  I'm aware.

[jaysblue]

Other Arizona outfielders/CFs at the time were Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas, with McCarthy and Thomas both considered possible trade candidates. Neither exactly became a star afterward. McCarthy did have a 3-WAR season in 2024 and has played well for Colorado this year, but Varsho has still been the better player overall since 2023. And realistically, Arizona probably wasn't trading Corbin Carroll for Moreno anyway.

Did Arizona specifically prefer Moreno over Kirk? Who knows. We don't even know whether that choice was Toronto's or Arizona's. What we do know is that since 2023, Kirk and Moreno have produced almost identical value: roughly 11 WAR for Kirk and 10 WAR for Moreno. The Jays also have Kirk locked up on a team-friendly deal through 2031, while Moreno can become a free agent after 2028.

So yes, Moreno > Varsho since 2023 in terms of overall value, and Kirk > Varsho as well. From a pure value standpoint, Arizona has won the trade so far. But the gap isn't remotely as massive as people make it sound.

If Varsho had simply stayed healthier and been a little better offensively, he probably would've accumulated somewhere around 10–12 WAR with Toronto by now, making this deal pretty even overall. 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Jays24 said:

Varsho didn't reach his potential with the bat but did with the glove.  Then his arm became comical after the shoulder surgery to the point hes not even that good right now.  

I still think he'll figure out how to maximize his power... I just thought it would have been during his contract year.  Sucks because he seems like a great guy/teammate.  

Varsho's defensive decline this season is due to decreased foot speed leading to a loss of range. He was still elite in center field last season despite the popgun arm as he was producing elite jumps off of the bat. The arm has actually recovered approximately 5 MPH of the total 10 MPH of missing velocity and as such his arm value is less negative than the 2025 season.

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Who had 1 year of control left.  He did have a great 2023 with the Diamondbacks, but re-signed him and he's been balls the last 2 seasons.  I'm aware.

Gurriel produced a 2.0 FWAR season in 2023 with a 105 wRC+. He was a league average outfielder but was hardly great.