Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2026)

[hanton]

On 4/26/2026 at 9:56 AM, Laika said:

Where to go with Kaz Okamoto? From a coaching perspective 

It seemed like Toronto considered him to have a better hit tool and better athleticism 

The criticisms of his defense may have been accurate. And he's slow. 

The whiff rate is concerning.

But the power is very real and probably better than anticipated.

This doesn't look like a .265 hitter who might hit 15-20 home runs. 

Gives me Matt Chapman flashbacks offensively 

Need to see more

the scouting reports / write up that I saw on mlbtr seem accurate at least before this current power surge. "Scouts who talked to MLBTR about Okamoto feel he’s a second-division regular at the hot corner or first base but more of a part-time bat on a deeper, contending roster."    but what's missing from that is any major league development, working with Popkins etc.  So I think we need to wait and see.

[Brownie19]

18 hours ago, Stangstag said:

Yeah still way too early to be saying he won’t stick at 3rd or wont be a useful bat.

Agreed.  He isn't Brooks Robinson at 3rd, but I don't think he's been awful.  Give him some time, let him settle in.

[Laika]

Okamoto's start gives us a baseline of his raw skills 

Still big error bars on things but certain characteristics are hard-coded and visible 

He can handle third base (that is good to see) but he is not rangy or impressively athletic (meaty legs) so I am thinking the ceiling there is like, a 0 OAA 3B over an entire season. He seems to have good hands, actions, decisions so even if he is a -5 or worse, perhaps it is the variety that doesn't demoralize the team or really stand out in a bad way.  

The K and BB rates are starting to approach stability, according to the typical baseball research. Since he changed leagues perhaps we need to extend that timeline but I will offer this:

Seiya Suzuki NPB in 2020, 2021: 14.2% and 16.5% K rates
Seiya Suzuki MLB career: 24.9% K rate

That's an 8.4-10.7% jump 

Yoshida NPB: 5.7% and 8.1%
Yoshida MLB: 12.9%  

4.8 to 7.2% jump (but even bigger in a relative sense, i.e. more than twice as many strikeouts as the one year)

Okamoto's last three NPB years were 11.3%, 15.9%, and 18.8%. So his baseline in NPB was more variable than the others. But he is also 30, compared to Suzuki who was 27 and not declining yet when he came over. So if you think that Okamoto's projected NPB K rate in 2026 and onward would have been 16% or higher, then an MLB K rate in the upper 20s completely tracks. The 32.4% rate so far does seem a bit too high, though. 

The closest qualified players to him in 2026 WHIFF RATE are: 

Benintendi (36.4, 17.9), Happ (30.0, 26.5), James Wood (31.2, 31.0), Manzardo (34.1, 26.6), Teoscar (29.7, 29.0), Gorman (28.7, 33.7), Corbin Carroll (25.7, 21.3)

The numbers in parenthesis are their 2026 and career K rates 

I don't know how instructive that list is. There are some positives and negatives. Swing rate is also an important toggle when it comes to K%. New comp strategy...

Swing rate 43.8%, SwStr% 14.3% = these or Kaz's 2026 rates. He has been quite passive. 

Here are the players since 2017, min 2000 PA, who Swing 45% of the time or less and whiff at least 10% of the time. I like this list because Soler and Suarez were comps in my head. 

Name	Swing%	SwStr%
Joey Gallo	0.449752	0.174126
Giancarlo Stanton	0.43603	0.13821
Aaron Judge	0.420069	0.130191
Jorge Soler	0.44018	0.127079
Justin Upton	0.437813	0.126623
Josh Donaldson	0.441655	0.124006
Wil Myers	0.445889	0.123176
Eugenio Suárez	0.446004	0.122826
Yoán Moncada	0.440443	0.122785
Randy Arozarena	0.43571	0.121344
Gary Sánchez	0.438873	0.121268
Kyle Schwarber	0.411116	0.116007
Mitch Haniger	0.439383	0.113168
Brandon Marsh	0.446173	0.112938
Jake Bauers	0.438735	0.111216
Michael Conforto	0.444153	0.106717
Matt Chapman	0.429325	0.105574
Shin-Soo Choo	0.412667	0.104272
Rowdy Tellez	0.447323	0.10366
Paul Goldschmidt	0.440822	0.102864
Christian Yelich	0.434609	0.102223
Max Muncy	0.391005	0.100207

[Laika]

One more stray point - Kaz cannot whiff 14.3% of the time and also be this passive. It doesn't show up on this list because it doesn't really work. He kind of needs to pick a path:

• Adjust and make more contact, OR
• Swing even less (Schwarber, Judge are 41% or 42% swing dudes)
• Swing more (guys who are more aggressive can be good with SwStr% of 14% or more because they put the ball in play and don't take strikes as often. Plenty of examples).  

[Orgfiller]

20 minutes ago, Laika said:

One more stray point - Kaz cannot whiff 14.3% of the time and also be this passive. It doesn't show up on this list because it doesn't really work. He kind of needs to pick a path:

• Adjust and make more contact, OR
• Swing even less (Schwarber, Judge are 41% or 42% swing dudes)
• Swing more (guys who are more aggressive can be good with SwStr% of 14% or more because they put the ball in play and don't take strikes as often. Plenty of examples).  

I think one thing his early season eye test has shown, is that when he's been struggling he's been really in between. No real conviction on swinging early at good pitches, he panics once he gets to 2 strikes and does weird half swings because striking out is dishonourable in Japanese culture or whatever.

I think if he can't over having his best "A" swing at all times, or isn't good enough to stay alive on 2 strike counts, then he needs to be swinging earlier looking to do damage. Part of this I think hopefully can come during the adjustment period, once he gets more comfortable with how the league approaches him. He's a very powerful hitter who can do serious damage to all parts of the field, and can connect on velocity. The early numbers show he doesn't chase a lot, and I think he can get even better here once he's less in between after getting more exposure to MLB pitching.

Take your walks, swing hard all the time, and try to do your damage early if 2 strike counts continue to be a problem. I think this will indicate if he needs to be swinging more or less often.

[Brownie19]

9 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

I think one thing his early season eye test has shown, is that when he's been struggling he's been really in between. No real conviction on swinging early at good pitches, he panics once he gets to 2 strikes and does weird half swings because striking out is dishonourable in Japanese culture or whatever.

I think if he can't over having his best "A" swing at all times, or isn't good enough to stay alive on 2 strike counts, then he needs to be swinging earlier looking to do damage. Part of this I think hopefully can come during the adjustment period, once he gets more comfortable with how the league approaches him. He's a very powerful hitter who can do serious damage to all parts of the field, and can connect on velocity. The early numbers show he doesn't chase a lot, and I think he can get even better here once he's less in between after getting more exposure to MLB pitching.

Take your walks, swing hard all the time, and try to do your damage early if 2 strike counts continue to be a problem. I think this will indicate if he needs to be swinging more or less often.

This seems like it's right out of the Popkin's playbook.  Hopefully Oka just needs more time with Popkins and more time to adjust to the league.

[Spanky__99]

4 hours ago, hanton said:

Need to see more

the scouting reports / write up that I saw on mlbtr seem accurate at least before this current power surge. "Scouts who talked to MLBTR about Okamoto feel he’s a second-division regular at the hot corner or first base but more of a part-time bat on a deeper, contending roster."    but what's missing from that is any major league development, working with Popkins etc.  So I think we need to wait and see.

And the outfits of say Baseball America contrast this heavily, who the f*** does MLBTR know in the industry, I feel this is just lip service, click bait from the site.

[The_DH]

3 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

This seems like it's right out of the Popkin's playbook.  Hopefully Oka just needs more time with Popkins and more time to adjust to the league.

I heard it said that he'd probably need about 200 AB's to get acclimated.  In terms of defense, he seems to be getting used to positioning which seems like no big deal.  In terms of offense, he just seems to be having difficulty reading curveball vs sweepers low and away.  That looks like it can be dealt with.

[hanton]

3 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

And the outfits of say Baseball America contrast this heavily, who the f*** does MLBTR know in the industry, I feel this is just lip service, click bait from the site.

nothing click bait about it, it was part of the FA write ups before all the signings; and where do you think mlbtr get the reports from?

[hanton]

3 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

And the outfits of say Baseball America contrast this heavily, who the f*** does MLBTR know in the industry, I feel this is just lip service, click bait from the site.

nothing click bait about it, it was part of the FA write ups before all the signings; and where do you think mlbtr get the reports from?  if u have the BA write up post it

[Spanky__99]

19 minutes ago, hanton said:

nothing click bait about it, it was part of the FA write ups before all the signings; and where do you think mlbtr get the reports from?  if u have the BA write up post it

I have several times.