Bo or Tucker Based On Their Projected Contracts?

[L54]

Tucker is my choice because I doubt he gets 36 AAV 

Thinking like 32M/year with deferrals 

[saskjayfan]

5 hours ago, L54 said:

Tucker is my choice because I doubt he gets 36 AAV 

Thinking like 32M/year with deferrals 

I guess you haven't heard the Mets and Dodger rumours..lol. I think Tucker is going to get massively overpaid.  Sign Bo and sign Murakami. 

[JaysAllMighty]

Bo, because a happy Vlad is a happy life!  😉

 

 

[L54]

58 minutes ago, saskjayfan said:

I guess you haven't heard the Mets and Dodger rumours..lol. I think Tucker is going to get massively overpaid.  Sign Bo and sign Murakami. 

I guess you haven’t heard Murakami’s whiff rate on fastballs over 93 lol 

[BTS]

1 hour ago, L54 said:

I guess you haven’t heard Murakami’s whiff rate on fastballs over 93 lol 

It's going to be telling to see what teams are in on Murakami. Apparently Ohtani had bad numbers against higher velo fastballs too before coming over. I read that there's so little velo over there that a lot of players struggle with 93-95 because they just don't see it very often, but then adjust when they get here and see that kind of velo all the time. 

I could see his market being anything between Pittsburgh getting him for like 60M or teams like LA and Boston in a 200M bidding war, depending on whether their respective nerds think they get him to make enough contact for the power to play. 

[Olerud363.354]

9 hours ago, Stangstag said:

Doesn’t make any sense at all. What casual even knows who Kyle Tucker is? He’s not some superstar, just merely a really good player.

With the exception of Ohtani and related Japanese add revenue I don't think 'star power' helps at all.   Just winning.   

I think there is some evidence that a strong off-season leads to an attendance spike, but not sustainable without winning.   

You can glance at Jays all time attendance here https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/

Making playoffs instantly led to the return of 3 million attendance in both 2016, and 2023.   Otherwise not a lot makes a difference.  Attendance wasn't great with Delgado at near triple crown level (2000, 2003).  Attendance wasn't spectacular with Clemens.  Attendance isn't too great historically with these 87 win teams that aren't really in it.   

Jays historical pattern since 1994

Playoff contention  3 million

no playoff contention 1.5 million - 2.5 million (depending how far away from last playoff contention)

[L54]

17 minutes ago, BTS said:

It's going to be telling to see what teams are in on Murakami. Apparently Ohtani had bad numbers against higher velo fastballs too before coming over. I read that there's so little velo over there that a lot of players struggle with 93-95 because they just don't see it very often, but then adjust when they get here and see that kind of velo all the time. 

I could see his market being anything between Pittsburgh getting him for like 60M or teams like LA and Boston in a 200M bidding war, depending on whether their respective nerds think they get him to make enough contact for the power to play. 

That would make sense and first time I’ve heard somebody make that argument. Whoever signs him will be betting on their hitting guys to get him to more contact

its interesting that from 2020-2022 his K rate was 22% and over the past three seasons it’s ballooned to 28%

It feels like buying a top prospect who is a tweak away from being a star, but it’s guaranteed money. Jo Adell type hitter with a 10% walk rate 

[max silver]

10 hours ago, Stangstag said:

Doesn’t make any sense at all. What casual even knows who Kyle Tucker is? He’s not some superstar, just merely a really good player.

I don't think it makes sense either as Ohtani is essentially the only player in MLB who has a contract that pays for itself to the point where it's self sustaining and should have it's own separate budgetary allotment. Having said that I do believe there is some truth to this although I don't know what point this special budget runs out as there's no way it's unlimited in nature.

Change the wording from star player to impact player if that suits you better. I believe the likes of Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman likely fell under this "special" budget last offseason as the Blue Jays were reportedly in negotiations to add one of these guys as spring training approached. As mentioned by L54 Tucker is one of MLB's best/most consistent players year over year as he's ranked 11th in FWAR since becoming a full time regular in MLB in 2020, that's one of MLB's best players whether you think casuals know about him or not.

[jmomcc]

2 hours ago, BTS said:

It's going to be telling to see what teams are in on Murakami. Apparently Ohtani had bad numbers against higher velo fastballs too before coming over. I read that there's so little velo over there that a lot of players struggle with 93-95 because they just don't see it very often, but then adjust when they get here and see that kind of velo all the time. 

I could see his market being anything between Pittsburgh getting him for like 60M or teams like LA and Boston in a 200M bidding war, depending on whether their respective nerds think they get him to make enough contact for the power to play. 

The problem with him isn't so much the problem with velo. Its that pretty much everyone thinks he will either not play third at even a fringe average level, and we can't sign another first baseman on big money. 

[glory]

This was posted about Murakami a couple of days ago. Not sure what to believe, but two things against him from a Jays standpoint is lots of K's (they hate that) and lack of position unless they think he can handle 3B or the OF. Aside from that, a 25/26 year old with that type of power potential is intriguing. Unfortunately the team acquiring him will be taking a gamble with a FA contract rather than $800k for 3 years, so not sure the Jays fit there. Okamoto probably fits the Jays profile a lot better.

[jmomcc]

I was listening to a podcast with a BA guy on and he said Okamoto is a 55 (above average) at third and a 70 at first (possibly one of the best in baseball). Other people seem lighter on him. Saw a max muncy comparison somewhere and he's more a 45 at third than a 55 i think. 

I just can't see us risking it with Murakami. 

[Laika]

It becomes worth the gamble if you don't have to pay him $100M+

A lot of talk about Joey Gallo and Miguel Sano as negative comps, but not enough consideration of JUST HOW f***ING CLOSE those two were to being stars. Like, this is the Kyle Schwarber tool kit. 

Dude is 26

Pirates or some other team who have trouble signing big stars should think about this. 

He's a better fit on a team like that, perhaps, than a team like Toronto, New York, etc. where there will be immense pressure on him to be a star right away. 

[Terminator]

3 hours ago, BTS said:

It's going to be telling to see what teams are in on Murakami. Apparently Ohtani had bad numbers against higher velo fastballs too before coming over. I read that there's so little velo over there that a lot of players struggle with 93-95 because they just don't see it very often, but then adjust when they get here and see that kind of velo all the time. 

I could see his market being anything between Pittsburgh getting him for like 60M or teams like LA and Boston in a 200M bidding war, depending on whether their respective nerds think they get him to make enough contact for the power to play. 

Yeah I remember reading about Kim (the recent Brave, not the other one) and his numbers against 93+ were comically bad. The Asian players simply don't see higher velo as much but they can adjust once they see it more often.

[Brownie19]

11 hours ago, L54 said:

Tucker is my choice because I doubt he gets 36 AAV 

Thinking like 32M/year with deferrals 

Based on the contracts handed out to date, I'm not sure I see Tucker getting 11 years or $400M.  My gut says Bo won't exceed $200M either.  If he does, it's certainly low $200M's

I think Tucker is the better player and better fit for the team; however, I do get stuck on the nostalgia of keeping Bo.  He's been such a rock for this team for a long time.

[Brownie19]

2 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Yeah I remember reading about Kim (the recent Brave, not the other one) and his numbers against 93+ were comically bad. The Asian players simply don't see higher velo as much but they can adjust once they see it more often.

It must be difficult to gauge whether a player will be able to adjust or not with any type of confidence...

[Terminator]

17 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

It must be difficult to gauge whether a player will be able to adjust or not with any type of confidence...

I think you can probably assume all of them will get better to some degree.

But yeah teams probably aren't great at scouting it at this point. I suppose you could maybe look at what makes guys in MLB good at hitting high velo and analyzing if the Asian batter has similar traits which can help him succeed. Perhaps things like bat speed, swing length, swing loading, etc.?

[max silver]

9 hours ago, glory said:

This was posted about Murakami a couple of days ago. Not sure what to believe, but two things against him from a Jays standpoint is lots of K's (they hate that) and lack of position unless they think he can handle 3B or the OF. Aside from that, a 25/26 year old with that type of power potential is intriguing. Unfortunately the team acquiring him will be taking a gamble with a FA contract rather than $800k for 3 years, so not sure the Jays fit there. Okamoto probably fits the Jays profile a lot better.

I tend to think Okamoto is a better fit for the the Blue Jays right now. I don't think he has the same offensive upside as Murakami who possesses nearly top of the scale raw power but I feel Okamoto presents a much higher floor and is far less likely to bust given the far superior contact ability.

[Olerud363.354]

27 minutes ago, max silver said:

I tend to think Okamoto is a better fit for the the Blue Jays right now. I don't think he has the same offensive upside as Okomoto who possesses nearly top of the scale raw power but I feel Okamoto presents a much higher floor and is far less likely to bust given the far superior contact ability.

I assume someone has proper translations and projections, but roughly speaking I assume it is at least a 100 point hit off of career OPS.  Murakami's career Japanese OPS is is .950 and Kazuma Okamoto's .850. 

Seiya Suzuki was basically .950 Japan .850 U.S.    Ohtani was the opposite.  .850 Japan, .950 U.S.  But that is an unique situation (came over at 23 and was pitching part time). 

So bullshitting it Okamoto would be a .250 .325 .425 hitter and Murakami .260 .350 .500.   

 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Olerud363.354 said:

I assume someone has proper translations and projections, but roughly speaking I assume it is at least a 100 point hit off of career OPS.  Murakami's career Japanese OPS is is .950 and Kazuma Okamoto's .850. 

Seiya Suzuki was basically .950 Japan .850 U.S.    Ohtani was the opposite.  .850 Japan, .950 U.S.  But that is an unique situation (came over at 23 and was pitching part time). 

So bullshitting it Okamoto would be a .250 .325 .425 hitter and Murakami .260 .350 .500.   

 

I can get on board with an 850 OPS line being a low probability potential ceiling for Murakami if he makes enough contact, but I think he has massive bust potential as he's already struggling immensely with the strikeout against NPB pitching.

[Omar]

I will take what's behind door number three Monty...

Cody Bellinger.

Less money than Tucker, more versatile than Bo and better defensive value. 

That said, always take the better player when forced to choose.  Right?

[Laika]

2 minutes ago, Omar said:

I will take what's behind door number three Monty...

Cody Bellinger.

Less money than Tucker, more versatile than Bo and better defensive value. 

That said, always take the better player when forced to choose.  Right?

*worse projections and worse projected defensive value and probably less versatile (isn't a fringe SS and possible 2B/3B more versatile than a fringe CF who can play a corner or 1B?) 

[Laika]

Door #3 is actually Alex Bregman

[Omar]

Let Bo go folks.

Bellinger can play all three outfield positions. Can spot Vladdy on 1b. And you can reinvest the dollar differential to eventually sign Varsho or go elsewhere. 

Edit: and devastating the Yankees is a fringe benefit 

[Brownie19]

What's Bregman going to get?  

[Omar]

6 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

What's Bregman going to get?  

I could see him going as high as 6/$180M

 

[Brownie19]

2 minutes ago, Omar said:

I could see him going as high as 6/$180M

 

oooof - that's not much less than Bo will get and Bregman is entering his age 32 season.  He's a great player, but I'd much rather have Bo on age along.

If you could get Bregman for like 3 years $90M - he'd be a good fit.  He fits the profile we like (contact skills, good defense).

[Jays24]

8 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

oooof - that's not much less than Bo will get and Bregman is entering his age 32 season.  He's a great player, but I'd much rather have Bo on age along.

If you could get Bregman for like 3 years $90M - he'd be a good fit.  He fits the profile we like (contact skills, good defense).

Didn't Bregman just opt out of a deal with 2/80 left on it with some of that deferred? Im sure he's going for the best longterm deal like Alonso this offseason.

[max silver]

2 hours ago, Omar said:

I will take what's behind door number three Monty...

Cody Bellinger.

Less money than Tucker, more versatile than Bo and better defensive value. 

That said, always take the better player when forced to choose.  Right?

I'm not a fan of Bellinger in the slightest as I believe he has a really high probability of producing 2-2.5 win seasons moving forward. His splits show he's just ripe for regression and I think he's in tough to recreate his 2025 success, especially away from Yankee Stadium. Have a look at these splits and see if you share the same concerns I do about the repeatability of Bellinger's 2025 season. 

 

Combined 125 wRC+

Vs RHP 105 wRC+

Vs LHP 180 wRC+

Home

Overall 152 wRC+

Vs RHP 105 wRC+

Vs LHP 206 wRC+

Away

Overall 97 wRC+

Vs RHP 79 wRC+

Vs LHP 151 wRC+

Bellinger was barely above average against right handed pitching, and positively feasted on left handed pitching. He was like a supercharged version of Ernie Clement with the bat and I for one have little to no interest in paying a star contract to a player with this profile.

[jmomcc]

If we don't get either, i'd pivot to okamoto and imai. Then make some trades to clean it up and start out like that. 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, Jays24 said:

Didn't Bregman just opt out of a deal with 2/80 left on it with some of that deferred? Im sure he's going for the best longterm deal like Alonso this offseason imo.

I just don't see where that market is at age 32.  Nobody wanted to sign him long term last offseason either.

I guess I could see a 5 year deal.  I don't want the Jays involved at that term.