Jays Signing Cease 7 years 210M

[Jimcanuck]

1 hour ago, sliderguy35 said:

love the signing, i was on record a few weeks ago that i thought he was the best guy available by far (not counting trades). guys who routinely post K%-BB% rates close to 20 don't pop up very often. 

there's also merit to the BABIP regression discussion, last year Cease had a flyball rate 9% higher than league average and a BABIP 10% higher than league average (FB%+ of 109 / BABIP+ of 110).

Among the 471 qualified starting pitcher seasons, since 2016 (excluding 2020 due to sample size) only 2 other pitchers have had a BABIP+ of 110 or above and a FB%+ of 109 or above in the same year. it's extremely rare for a pitcher to give up this many flyballs & still have a high BABIP. 

 

there's reason to believe the walk rate might come down as well. there's all talk of the pete walker magic when the jays "fixed" robbie ray & eric lauer, but the reality is that both of their First-Pitch Strike %s (FPS%) went up by a significant amount which reduced their walk rates in turn. essentially every significant starting pitching acquisition by the jays in the last 5 years has had their FPS% jump upon initially joining the team (except for kikuchi, but he figured it out by year 3). it's clearly something they prioritize in the organization. 

cease is currently below average at getting first pitch strikes and pitching with count leverage (60%). the jays probably won't touch his pitching repertoire or mix at all, but i'd bet on cease getting into the ~63% range for FPS% and posting a career low walk rate as well.

 

all that being said, it just feels like there's going to be a lost season & a half somewhere over the lifespan of this contract. i'm just inherently worried about health when you're talking about pitchers getting into their 30s & throwing breaking balls in the upper 80s / low 90s, the jays have avoided major pitching injuries over the last few years, but they've also mostly avoided these kinds of high-velo breaking ball guys.

you still always do the contract since it helps you win the world series next year, you just have to hope its more in the gerrit cole / justin verlander age range where the injury happens towards the end of the deal, rather than what happened with corbin burnes / robbie ray

Great stuff.  Is your name Tom Tango by chance?  He has visited this board on 3 or 4 occasions.

[glory]

1 hour ago, jmomcc said:

Just feels like there is a guy with 5+ war seasons in him with a better mix. 

I think this is what the Jays are betting on. They like the profile already, but they probably feel Walker can do something with him to get better results, which combined with the durability and the better defense behind him could make this contract look great if it works out. Even as is it's fair value aside from the years. If he has another gear in him then it would look fantastic. 

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Jimcanuck said:

Great stuff.  Is your name Tom Tango by chance?  He has visited this board on 3 or 4 occasions.

I summoned him with my powers!

 

[sliderguy35]

1 hour ago, jmomcc said:

The fact that he hasn't done it yet might just mean he's not comfortable doing it which is fine, but i feel like obviously you want to get him down from 80% two pitches. 

The curve and the changeup look like pretty good pitches. He has them already. 

Its unfortunate he couldn't throw the cutter reliably to where he wanted to. It graded really well stuff wise. Ideally for me he would have an average 2 seam that he could throw for strikes. 

Just feels like there is a guy with 5+ war seasons in him with a better mix. 

pitching stuff dev / mix expansion just isn't something the org is very good at IMO. they aren't like the yankees or the rays where they have an advanced understanding of seam effects to where they can acquire a max fried / edwin uceta give them a new pitch and have it grade out / perform well.

when they go dumpster diving and "fix" a pitcher, it's always due to A) the emphasis on count leverage, B) a change in existing pitch mix, or C) a combination of the two. braydon fisher and tommy nance are good examples, they went hunting for guys who already had good stuff numbers, found what pitch they can throw for strikes the easiest (sliders, in both cases) & pushed the early count usage to get ahead of more hitters. 

that's kinda why i think cease is a good fit for them. generally these high-slot 4-seam carry guys are limited in how much lateral movement they can impart on the baseball, so it limits their mix naturally. maybe a smarter team might be able to get some kinda landon knack kick-change or nick pivetta-esque sweeper from that slot, the jays have just shown time & again that they aren't capable of doing that. (yesavage already had his splitter before he entered the org, but thats another reason why he's a unicorn)

so if i'm the blue jays & I know that I can't develop new pitches for my staff like my contemporaries are able too, I might as well acquire a guy who's pretty maxed out stuff-wise & see if I can help him improve in the way that I know we can (mix adjustment / count leverage). that's the way I see it at least

 

1 hour ago, Jimcanuck said:

Great stuff.  Is your name Tom Tango by chance?  He has visited this board on 3 or 4 occasions.

it is not but that's my GOAT

[Brownie19]

8 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

pitching stuff dev / mix expansion just isn't something the org is very good at IMO. they aren't like the yankees or the rays where they have an advanced understanding of seam effects to where they can acquire a max fried / edwin uceta give them a new pitch and have it grade out / perform well.

when they go dumpster diving and "fix" a pitcher, it's always due to A) the emphasis on count leverage, B) a change in existing pitch mix, or C) a combination of the two. braydon fisher and tommy nance are good examples, they went hunting for guys who already had good stuff numbers, found what pitch they can throw for strikes the easiest (sliders, in both cases) & pushed the early count usage to get ahead of more hitters. 

that's kinda why i think cease is a good fit for them. generally these high-slot 4-seam carry guys are limited in how much lateral movement they can impart on the baseball, so it limits their mix naturally. maybe a smarter team might be able to get some kinda landon knack kick-change or nick pivetta-esque sweeper from that slot, the jays have just shown time & again that they aren't capable of doing that. (yesavage already had his splitter before he entered the org, but thats another reason why he's a unicorn)

so if i'm the blue jays & I know that I can't develop new pitches for my staff like my contemporaries are able too, I might as well acquire a guy who's pretty maxed out stuff-wise & see if I can help him improve in the way that I know we can (mix adjustment / count leverage). that's the way I see it at least

 

it is not but that's my GOAT

This may be a stupid question - but if don't have an advanced understanding of seam effects and are unable to give pitchers a new pitch - how do we fix that?  Can't we just steal people away from Driveline?  Is this something we should be able to catch up on quickly? or is it super specialized?

[sliderguy35]

2 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

This may be a stupid question - but if don't have an advanced understanding of seam effects and are unable to give pitchers a new pitch - how do we fix that?  Can't we just steal people away from Driveline?  Is this something we should be able to catch up on quickly? or is it super specialized?

unfortunately if i knew that, i'd probably have a job with a team somewhere instead of just posting online lol

my theory is that it's partially a pete walker thing. the teams that are really good at this (yankees / phillies / rays) have pitching coaches that are former players, who are really involved in the data side of things and have been using it since they started coaching. matt blake and caleb cotham both have direct experience working with the driveline guys before they got their current roles. pete's been the pitching coach of the jays since driveline was founded in 2012 lol,

that's not to say that pete does a bad job, the jays do a really good job with the mix / count leverage stuff i mentioned earlier, but they also seem to have a good understanding of the bio-mech side of things & keeping guys healthy. it just seems to be a trade-off of prioritizing those aspects over being a clubhouse leader in pitch design

it looks like the org is trying to be more proactive about this though. their new minor league pitching coordinator they hired last year Justin Lehr, seems to be a step in the right direction based on everything i've read. unfortunately there's just not as much publicly available data on the minor league side so it's tough to see real change. 

 

[Brownie19]

19 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

unfortunately if i knew that, i'd probably have a job with a team somewhere instead of just posting online lol

my theory is that it's partially a pete walker thing. the teams that are really good at this (yankees / phillies / rays) have pitching coaches that are former players, who are really involved in the data side of things and have been using it since they started coaching. matt blake and caleb cotham both have direct experience working with the driveline guys before they got their current roles. pete's been the pitching coach of the jays since driveline was founded in 2012 lol,

that's not to say that pete does a bad job, the jays do a really good job with the mix / count leverage stuff i mentioned earlier, but they also seem to have a good understanding of the bio-mech side of things & keeping guys healthy. it just seems to be a trade-off of prioritizing those aspects over being a clubhouse leader in pitch design

it looks like the org is trying to be more proactive about this though. their new minor league pitching coordinator they hired last year Justin Lehr, seems to be a step in the right direction based on everything i've read. unfortunately there's just not as much publicly available data on the minor league side so it's tough to see real change. 

 

Makes sense.  Pete is a dinosaur.  But a good leader identifies his weakness and brings in people who can fill that void.  Be a good leader Pete - keep us on the cutting edge please.

[Jimcanuck]

the biomech / health side of things and the driveline / pitch design side are likely in tension.  An arm can only handle so much additional and new stress before it breaks.

Maybe someone more clued in to this on here can weigh in on whether some teams are more cautious than others with the driveline stuff, for health reasons specifically

[max silver]

9 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Yeah Cease isn't an ace at the moment but he has the potential to be an ace if he puts it all together. Getting out of Chicago helped and hopefully now with the Jays system, they can help him work towards that.

This signing kind of reminds me of when the Jays signed AJ Burnett during the 2005/2006 offseason. Burnett at the time was at a similar age and more of a No. 2 throughout his career, though had the stuff and all the potential to become an ace. The only difference between Burnett and Cease has been durability. At the time, health/durability was Burnett's issue as we saw in 2006 and 2007 he only made around 20-25 starts each of those seasons. Though in 2008, he pretty much developed into that ace Toronto envisioned during his opt out year lol, posting a 5 WAR season. Sucked with the Yankees after, though put together some solid years with the Pirates. 

The plus with Cease is durability and a healthy track record, so you know he's good for 30+ starts and around 170-180 innings and likely a floor of 3.5-4 WAR, which is still very good. Cease has the potential to turn in a 5-6 WAR season if he puts everything together and that is exciting! 

I fully agree with these points. The AJ Burnett comparison is interesting as I believe even when healthy he also had issues with losing focus during his starts and would tend to have things snowball on him at times. From what I can gather from the various disgruntled Padres fans I've seen posting at the Athletic Cease has the same kind of focus issues where he'll be cruising and suddenly lose his command. I am hopeful that the Jays can help Cease to find another gear whether that's fine tuning his command, improving sequencing/pitch selection or even adding another pitch to his repertoire. He's an exciting addition given the premium stuff he possesses so fingers crossed he can develop into more of a number 1 during his time as a Blue Jay.

[max silver]

7 hours ago, BTS said:

Toronto's success identifying starting pitching has pretty much been off the charts:

- Bassit just finished up a 3/63 deal over which he made 95 starts and put up 7.3 fWAR

- Gausman finishing a 5/110 deal where he's started 125 games in 4 years and put up 17.9 fWAR

- Trade for Robbie Ray and he wins the CY in his only full season with the team

- Sign Kikuchi for 3/36 and he gives them 5.3 fWAR, and finishes the deal strong enough that he's one of the biggest deadline trade pieces in 2024

- Bring Eric Lauer back from the KBO on a minor league deal and he gives them 105 innings of 3.18 ERA ball

- Drafting Yesavage 20th overall in 2024

- Pick up Ross Stripling for cheap. He has a career season with 3 fWAR. Then the team lets him sign a landmine deal in SF that immediately blows up. 

 

They've become an organization that you just assume knows what they're doing as far as pitching is concerned. If they've been after Cease for three years it isn't because they like his FIP and WAR on Fangraphs.com. The contract isn't an overpay. Everyone else just underbid. 

Steven Matz is another veteran hurler who the Blue Jays helped to turn around his career. 

[sliderguy35]

48 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

the biomech / health side of things and the driveline / pitch design side are likely in tension.  An arm can only handle so much additional and new stress before it breaks.

Maybe someone more clued in to this on here can weigh in on whether some teams are more cautious than others with the driveline stuff, for health reasons specifically

every org is going to do their best to develop their players while keeping them healthy, a lot of why certain orgs seem to have more pitching injuries is just the types of amateur players that teams are looking to acquire.

the dodgers love tall, projectable high school arms & hard throwing position player -> pitcher conversion candidates with good fastball traits, and then developing pitch mixes from there. naturally, these kinds of players are guys who end up seeing large, quick velocity spikes and because of that, a higher risk of injury. if these guys manage to stay healthy and click though, that's where you'll start to see elite pitching prospects

the guardians love athletic college guys that have less projectable bodies but good command and then train velocity through mechanical efficiency rather than natural growth. so they generally have fewer injuries as an org since the velo ceiling is lower or is developed over time rather raised than in a short period. the overall ceilings on these kind of guys is generally lower (unless you have an outlier with 80 grade command like shane bieber), but they usually stay healthier.

the dodgers have so much major league and organizational depth because of their payroll, they can afford to take shots at these higher upside guys even if they burn out. teams like the guardians really want to get the most out of their controllable years from these pitchers, so they're naturally going to be more risk averse in the types of players they look to acquire.

that's the general consensus from what i've read / seen over the last couple of years at least

[Brownie19]

43 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

every org is going to do their best to develop their players while keeping them healthy, a lot of why certain orgs seem to have more pitching injuries is just the types of amateur players that teams are looking to acquire.

the dodgers love tall, projectable high school arms & hard throwing position player -> pitcher conversion candidates with good fastball traits, and then developing pitch mixes from there. naturally, these kinds of players are guys who end up seeing large, quick velocity spikes and because of that, a higher risk of injury. if these guys manage to stay healthy and click though, that's where you'll start to see elite pitching prospects

the guardians love athletic college guys that have less projectable bodies but good command and then train velocity through mechanical efficiency rather than natural growth. so they generally have fewer injuries as an org since the velo ceiling is lower or is developed over time rather raised than in a short period. the overall ceilings on these kind of guys is generally lower (unless you have an outlier with 80 grade command like shane bieber), but they usually stay healthier.

the dodgers have so much major league and organizational depth because of their payroll, they can afford to take shots at these higher upside guys even if they burn out. teams like the guardians really want to get the most out of their controllable years from these pitchers, so they're naturally going to be more risk averse in the types of players they look to acquire.

that's the general consensus from what i've read / seen over the last couple of years at least

That's a great breakdown.  You provide some awesome insight man - please post more, I love this stuff!

re: Dodgers, I was tarred and feathered for suggesting their development hadn't been as strong as of late, with guys like Bobby Miller, May, etc. not panning out as they had hoped.  In hindsight, I was wrong.

I'm correct that they haven't been as successful over the past 2-4 years and some of their top prospects with big time arms haven't panned out - but that's not because their development is poor or slipping, it's just the volatility in their approach.

 

[jmomcc]

3 hours ago, sliderguy35 said:

every org is going to do their best to develop their players while keeping them healthy, a lot of why certain orgs seem to have more pitching injuries is just the types of amateur players that teams are looking to acquire.

the dodgers love tall, projectable high school arms & hard throwing position player -> pitcher conversion candidates with good fastball traits, and then developing pitch mixes from there. naturally, these kinds of players are guys who end up seeing large, quick velocity spikes and because of that, a higher risk of injury. if these guys manage to stay healthy and click though, that's where you'll start to see elite pitching prospects

the guardians love athletic college guys that have less projectable bodies but good command and then train velocity through mechanical efficiency rather than natural growth. so they generally have fewer injuries as an org since the velo ceiling is lower or is developed over time rather raised than in a short period. the overall ceilings on these kind of guys is generally lower (unless you have an outlier with 80 grade command like shane bieber), but they usually stay healthier.

the dodgers have so much major league and organizational depth because of their payroll, they can afford to take shots at these higher upside guys even if they burn out. teams like the guardians really want to get the most out of their controllable years from these pitchers, so they're naturally going to be more risk averse in the types of players they look to acquire.

that's the general consensus from what i've read / seen over the last couple of years at least

Its just a numbers game with the dodgers and they develop a ton of WAR in controllable years through the draft. They also do this thing where they develop a 2/3 win player and then just trade him and sign someone in free agency instead, get a few guys years away from the rule 5 and then THEY become good prospects. Its a really smart way to use their money. 

I think the jays problems in the minors with injuries was more that there wasn't the volume of prospects to overcome it. We have the payroll to be the dodgers but we don't have the synergy between drafting and dev maybe. The dodgers seem really keyed in on what they can and can't develop. 

Your point on Walker above is interesting. One of the first 'bad' signs that we might not be about to become a cutting edge pitching org was him staying as pitching coach. Not that he is a bad coach, he's really good. But more that you'd expect people coming in with a really defined pitching philosophy to pick their own guy. 

[Omar]

5 hours ago, sliderguy35 said:

pitching stuff dev / mix expansion just isn't something the org is very good at IMO. they aren't like the yankees or the rays where they have an advanced understanding of seam effects to where they can acquire a max fried / edwin uceta give them a new pitch and have it grade out  are able too, 

Could this also be a case that it just isn't their philosophy as an org with respect to pitcher development? Perhaps they think the it is best to work on and develop the existing raw material talent of a pitcher instead of new pitch development?  Or is it just a matter of they aren't good at it as you stated? How do you rate the Pirates in such a case?  I had heard that the Pirates are big believers in the race to two. Ie. Get two strikes before two balls in the count.  Which it seems the Jays embraced and now spreading like wildfire but that it originated out of the Pirates org first.  In short the Pitching to Win philosophy; weird that it comes from the Pirates.

[jmomcc]

36 minutes ago, Omar said:

Could this also be a case that it just isn't their philosophy as an org with respect to pitcher development? Perhaps they think the it is best to work on and develop the existing raw material talent of a pitcher instead of new pitch development?  Or is it just a matter of they aren't good at it as you stated? How do you rate the Pirates in such a case?  I had heard that the Pirates are big believers in the race to two. Ie. Get two strikes before two balls in the count.  Which it seems the Jays embraced and now spreading like wildfire but that it originated out of the Pirates org first.  In short the Pitching to Win philosophy; weird that it comes from the Pirates.

I think on an org wide level you could almost do both. So, essentially your minor league pitching development concentrates on pitch design and then we draft projectable guys to give pitches to. Then when they get to the majors they focus on pitch mix and so on. 

 

[Joltin Joe]

18 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Yeah Cease isn't an ace at the moment but he has the potential to be an ace if he puts it all together. Getting out of Chicago helped and hopefully now with the Jays system, they can help him work towards that.

This signing kind of reminds me of when the Jays signed AJ Burnett during the 2005/2006 offseason. Burnett at the time was at a similar age and more of a No. 2 throughout his career, though had the stuff and all the potential to become an ace. The only difference between Burnett and Cease has been durability. At the time, health/durability was Burnett's issue as we saw in 2006 and 2007 he only made around 20-25 starts each of those seasons. Though in 2008, he pretty much developed into that ace Toronto envisioned during his opt out year lol, posting a 5 WAR season. Sucked with the Yankees after, though put together some solid years with the Pirates. 

The plus with Cease is durability and a healthy track record, so you know he's good for 30+ starts and around 170-180 innings and likely a floor of 3.5-4 WAR, which is still very good. Cease has the potential to turn in a 5-6 WAR season if he puts everything together and that is exciting! 

A 5-6 WAR on Cease is quite optimistic. He'll average out mid rotation pitcher. I would have gave the money to Bellinger and traded Varsho for young mid rotation pitcher and utility infielder. Bellinger is a 5 WAR, has vertsality. Have enough cash to sign Bo and Tucker that way. Or just one and add Diaz or Suarez for bullpen. 

[Terminator]

Welp I finally got invited to the family Thanksgiving dinner again down here in Florida and once again I got thrown out for having a few drinks and calling out a few relatives for their bull5hit. Some people just don’t like hearing the truth do they?

So with that said I’d like to say that I’m thankful that Ed Rogers does not give two shits about his shareholders and is done even pretending to care about them in the slightest. Keep handing out massive contracts with reckless abandon, Ed.

At this point I want him signing guys like a divorced dad panic-buying Christmas presents at 10 pm on December 24. Keep swiping that corporate credit card, big man. I dare the board to make a change right now. The entire country would tar and feather them if they can Ed and try and cut payroll and they know it.

So give every free agent a seven-year deal. Offer Tucker equity in Rogers. Let Bo control programming for Sportsnet. I dare the board to try and stop him. 

Because while I’m getting escorted out of Aunt Linda’s house again, the ONE thing that keeps me warm at night is the thought that Ed Rogers is out there treating the payroll like it’s Monopoly money and he’s already mortgaged Boardwalk twice.

God bless Ed Rogers. Now someone please update me if the Jays make any more moves as I finish this boxed wine out behind the shed. My flight back to Winnipeg isn’t until Sunday and my international phone plan sucks.

[jaysblue]

4 hours ago, Joltin Joe said:

A 5-6 WAR on Cease is quite optimistic. He'll average out mid rotation pitcher. I would have gave the money to Bellinger and traded Varsho for young mid rotation pitcher and utility infielder. Bellinger is a 5 WAR, has vertsality. Have enough cash to sign Bo and Tucker that way. Or just one and add Diaz or Suarez for bullpen. 

He's been a mid 4+ WAR arm a couple times already and posted a 4.7 WAR season in 2024. 5 WAR is definitely reachable. 6 WAR would be optimistic and Skubal level territory. Out of all arms that were available in free agency, he probably was the only one who had the potential to reach that mark. 

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, jaysblue said:

He's been a mid 4+ WAR arm a couple times already and posted a 4.7 WAR season in 2024. 5 WAR is definitely reachable. 6 WAR would be optimistic and Skubal level territory. Out of all arms that were available in free agency, he probably was the only one who had the potential to reach that mark. 

Fair to call Cease a right handed version of Snell? with a bit of a difference in how pitches are mixed.  

Comparatively...

Snell's career stuff+ 103, Location+ 104, Pitching+ 110 (main pitches in descending order of % thrown- 4seam, change, curve, slider)

Cease's career stuff+ 107, Location+100, Pitching+ 107 (main pitches, 4seam, slider, curve - then sinker/sweeper/change)

 

[Governator]

17 hours ago, sliderguy35 said:

unfortunately if i knew that, i'd probably have a job with a team somewhere instead of just posting online lol

my theory is that it's partially a pete walker thing. the teams that are really good at this (yankees / phillies / rays) have pitching coaches that are former players, who are really involved in the data side of things and have been using it since they started coaching. matt blake and caleb cotham both have direct experience working with the driveline guys before they got their current roles. pete's been the pitching coach of the jays since driveline was founded in 2012 lol,

that's not to say that pete does a bad job, the jays do a really good job with the mix / count leverage stuff i mentioned earlier, but they also seem to have a good understanding of the bio-mech side of things & keeping guys healthy. it just seems to be a trade-off of prioritizing those aspects over being a clubhouse leader in pitch design

it looks like the org is trying to be more proactive about this though. their new minor league pitching coordinator they hired last year Justin Lehr, seems to be a step in the right direction based on everything i've read. unfortunately there's just not as much publicly available data on the minor league side so it's tough to see real change. 

 

 

I just want to say I'm glad you found us and welcome to the board. Please stick around 🙏

[Laika]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

Fair to call Cease a right handed version of Snell? with a bit of a difference in how pitches are mixed.  

Comparatively...

Snell's career stuff+ 103, Location+ 104, Pitching+ 110 (main pitches in descending order of % thrown- 4seam, change, curve, slider)

Cease's career stuff+ 107, Location+100, Pitching+ 107 (main pitches, 4seam, slider, curve - then sinker/sweeper/change)

 

They are very different archetypes. Snell has trouble staying on the field but has not had performance questions in years. When he is pitching the combo of stuff and control is pretty elite. He walks hitters but it's largely on purpose - would prefer to give them nothing to hit. Uses all of his pitches effectively. 

Cease makes every start but is more of a bulldog who just brute forces his way through starts with knockout stuff and okay command. Almost reliever-ish. Doesn't use his 3rd or 4th pitches effectively. 

Honestly, it's a different repertoire but other 2 pitch guys might be better comps. Gausman... 

Maybe the thing to do with Cease to help him be an Ace is just fastball wrinkles. There are an increasing number of MLB pitchers who throw 2 or 3 fastball variations and it has helped them step out of being predictable or hittable. 

The one thing Cease maybe hasn't tried in earnest is adding a cutter and sinker. Incoming seam shifted wake sinker! Maybe use Drew Rasmussen as the model for that second fastball 

[Spanky__99]

33 minutes ago, Governator said:

 

I just want to say I'm glad you found us and welcome to the board. Please stick around 🙏

I'm pretty sure the entire forum feel this way, he certainly knows his stuff around pitching. I for one love it.

[Omar]

The Jays (Pete Walker) have to get Cease to attack the zone.  On first pitch strikes he below league average.  For a guy with his velo/stuff this is unacceptable. Im pretty sure the Jays will have him get aggressive early in the count. 

This is what I found online:

                            Cease.         MLB avg.

Spin %.                 52.6%         31%

1st pitch strikes     60%.          61.8%

In Zone                  46.5%.        48.9%

Edge.                       42.2%.         42.7%

If he throws first pitch strikes next season = Cy Young

 

[jmomcc]

41 minutes ago, Laika said:

They are very different archetypes. Snell has trouble staying on the field but has not had performance questions in years. When he is pitching the combo of stuff and control is pretty elite. He walks hitters but it's largely on purpose - would prefer to give them nothing to hit. Uses all of his pitches effectively. 

Cease makes every start but is more of a bulldog who just brute forces his way through starts with knockout stuff and okay command. Almost reliever-ish. Doesn't use his 3rd or 4th pitches effectively. 

Honestly, it's a different repertoire but other 2 pitch guys might be better comps. Gausman... 

Maybe the thing to do with Cease to help him be an Ace is just fastball wrinkles. There are an increasing number of MLB pitchers who throw 2 or 3 fastball variations and it has helped them step out of being predictable or hittable. 

The one thing Cease maybe hasn't tried in earnest is adding a cutter and sinker. Incoming seam shifted wake sinker! Maybe use Drew Rasmussen as the model for that second fastball 

He has thrown 7 different pitches in the last 2 years but the other 5 he throws very little other than the curve. That is used more against lefties than righties. He did mess with his mix a bit this year increasing the curve to lefites and decreasing it to righties.

In terms of stuff plus and location plus the others are (in small to very small samples) excluding the sweeper that isn't on there. 

Sinker 95/90

Cutter 108/81 (all 2004)

Change 109/110

Curve 92/102 

The one that stands out to me is the change. He reduced how often he threw is in 2025 though. It is quite a soft pitch though almost 20mph softer than the fastball. 

There is something there that could be figured out you'd think. 

[Brownie19]

The beauty thing about the changeup is there are now like 10 different ones you can throw and the nerds can now pinpoint exactly which variation works best based on your arm type and pitch sequencing.  

Snell was down to just 5% changeup usage in 2022 and now 3 years later, it's his best pitch and is used 24% of the time.  Adding that to Ceases arsenal would be idea - along with increase in-zone aggressiveness early in the count.  

[Laika]

4 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

He has thrown 7 different pitches in the last 2 years but the other 5 he throws very little other than the curve. That is used more against lefties than righties. He did mess with his mix a bit this year increasing the curve to lefites and decreasing it to righties.

In terms of stuff plus and location plus the others are (in small to very small samples) excluding the sweeper that isn't on there. 

Sinker 95/90

Cutter 108/81 (all 2004)

Change 109/110

Curve 92/102 

The one that stands out to me is the change. He reduced how often he threw is in 2025 though. It is quite a soft pitch though almost 20mph softer than the fastball. 

There is something there that could be figured out you'd think. 

Stuff+ has the hardest time with changeups 

There are poorly graded changeups that are very effective because the pitcher has great feel and command of them and can sequence reliably 

And then there are Cease changeups that grade well on movement etc. but that are just slop in games because he can't find any feel or command so he can't get results with them. Or they don't complement his other pitches. 

I feel like getting him to find a reliable sinker or cutter is the path of least resistance because it SHOULD in theory be easier to incorporate and these are command focused pitches so if he can find one he is willing to throw even 12% of the time it might help with his Strike% 

I dunno! We will see 

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Omar said:

The Jays (Pete Walker) have to get Cease to attack the zone.  On first pitch strikes he below league average.  For a guy with his velo/stuff this is unacceptable. Im pretty sure the Jays will have him get aggressive early in the count. 

This is what I found online:

                            Cease.         MLB avg.

Spin %.                 52.6%         31%

1st pitch strikes     60%.          61.8%

In Zone                  46.5%.        48.9%

Edge.                       42.2%.         42.7%

If he throws first pitch strikes next season = Cy Young

 

Agreed, sliderguy posted about this earlier this month. Interesting stuff.

[Jimcanuck]

Higher FPS% will also mean pitching deeper into games, in theory anyway.

[Pendleton]

2 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Fair to call Cease a right handed version of Snell? with a bit of a difference in how pitches are mixed.  

Comparatively...

Snell's career stuff+ 103, Location+ 104, Pitching+ 110 (main pitches in descending order of % thrown- 4seam, change, curve, slider)

Cease's career stuff+ 107, Location+100, Pitching+ 107 (main pitches, 4seam, slider, curve - then sinker/sweeper/change)

 

 

Does Cease make excuses? 

[DonJays]

2 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

I'm pretty sure the entire forum feel this way, he certainly knows his stuff around pitching. I for one love it.

Not me. I don’t do well with change and I’d  rather discuss how Bo is gone as the jays foolishly checked in on Marte