Toronto Blue Jays "Expected to Be Suitors" for Pete Fairbanks

[Matthew Lenz]

The Toronto Blue Jays will have a busy offseason as they've already been linked to a few of the biggest names on the market, including a reunion with infielder Bo Bichette. Now, we can add one more name to the list.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic is reporting that the Blue Jays are "expected to be suitors" for reliever Pete Fairbanks.

Fairbanks appeared in 61 games for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2025, logging 60 1/3 innings pitched. The reliever registered a 3.63 FIP and posted a 16.8% K-BB rate. Despite collecting 27 saves as the Rays' primary high-leverage reliever, he posted a miniscule WPA of 0.06. The Rays declined $11 million club option, paying him a $1 million buyout and making him a free agent. He's the 44th-ranked free agent according to MLBTR, and they predict he'll net $18 million over two years on the open market.

Do you think the Blue Jays should pony up for a high-leverage reliever to bolster their bullpen? Let us know in the comments!

View full rumor

[BTS]

Get it done Shatkins

[L54]

Much more palatable than the high end guys who are gonna get 15M+

[BTS]

25 minutes ago, L54 said:

Much more palatable than the high end guys who are gonna get 15M+

Yeah. Given he had no takers at 1/11, I wonder if you could get him for like 2/15 + option kind of deal. 

 

[Laika]

want 

 

On Bieber:

 

The Bieber mystery (cont.)

Across the industry, executives remain baffled by right-hander Shane Bieber’s decision to exercise his $16 million player option with the Blue Jays, calling it one of the most bizarre in recent memory.

Bieber, 30, had a $4 million buyout, so he effectively took a one-year, $12 million deal. And while he was effusive about his time with the Jays, he almost certainly would have fared better on the open market.

Left-hander Matt Boyd signed a two-year, $29 million free-agent deal with the Chicago Cubs last December after making only 11 starts for the Cleveland Guardians, including postseason, coming off Tommy John surgery. Bieber, 18 months removed from the same surgery, also made 11 starts, and in those games had a combined 3.57 ERA. The Athletic’s Tim Britton projected him at three years and $63 million.

Free agents rarely sacrifice money, even from their preferred clubs. The Jays, too, might have paid Bieber more than $12 million on the open market, assuming they were one of his bidders. His decision would have been understandable if an extension was forthcoming. But no such deal is imminent, according to sources briefed on the matter.

Bieber, who joined the Blue Jays in a deadline trade, evidently trusts the Jays’ medical and training staffs to help him continue his recovery. But some executives wonder if he is concerned about his health. By exercising his player option, he avoided the physical examination required of free agents before their contracts become official.

Bieber started Game 3 in both the Division Series and American League Championship Series before the Jays moved him to Game 4 for the World Series, wanting to give him an extra day of rest and avoid starting him twice in the series. But he showed no signs of strain in Game 4, allowing just one run in 5 1/3 innings. And while he gave up Will Smith’s go-ahead, 11th-inning homer on a 2-0 hanging slider in Game 7, he was pitching on three days rest and making his first relief appearance since March 2019.

Maybe Bieber just wanted stability; his wife, Kara, gave birth to their first child, a son named Kav, on March 14. But again, he could have worked out a better deal with the Jays, and perhaps he will at some point in the future.

For now, the mystery lingers.

[Olerud363.354]

23 minutes ago, Laika said:

The Bieber mystery (cont.)

Not like Scherzer and Bassitt are taking 1 year 10 million for friendship, or Bo taking the qualifying offer.

He can still pitch OK but not at previous level and seems to need a lot of rest... some of that might be normal coming off of TJ but maybe something else too.  

Maybe didn't want to do physicals this year, heading for something like the Hoffman situation where he might not pass a couple of physicals and go like 3/60 (not pass physical), 2 36 (not pass physical) and have to settle for 2 - 30 or something (like Hoffman kept getting slightly worse contracts as he failed physicals).  So just took the option, and be a once a week pitcher work with Jays staff to get healthy, 

[Orgfiller]

1 hour ago, BTS said:

Yeah. Given he had no takers at 1/11, I wonder if you could get him for like 2/15 + option kind of deal. 

 

Said it before, but if you can sign him to the Yimi Garcia deal - who should hopefully also be a little healthier in 2026 - then we've effectively replaced Seranthony in the bullpen at a very palatable price.

[BTS]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

want 

 

On Bieber:

 

The Bieber mystery (cont.)

Across the industry, executives remain baffled by right-hander Shane Bieber’s decision to exercise his $16 million player option with the Blue Jays, calling it one of the most bizarre in recent memory.

Bieber, 30, had a $4 million buyout, so he effectively took a one-year, $12 million deal. And while he was effusive about his time with the Jays, he almost certainly would have fared better on the open market.

Left-hander Matt Boyd signed a two-year, $29 million free-agent deal with the Chicago Cubs last December after making only 11 starts for the Cleveland Guardians, including postseason, coming off Tommy John surgery. Bieber, 18 months removed from the same surgery, also made 11 starts, and in those games had a combined 3.57 ERA. The Athletic’s Tim Britton projected him at three years and $63 million.

Free agents rarely sacrifice money, even from their preferred clubs. The Jays, too, might have paid Bieber more than $12 million on the open market, assuming they were one of his bidders. His decision would have been understandable if an extension was forthcoming. But no such deal is imminent, according to sources briefed on the matter.

Bieber, who joined the Blue Jays in a deadline trade, evidently trusts the Jays’ medical and training staffs to help him continue his recovery. But some executives wonder if he is concerned about his health. By exercising his player option, he avoided the physical examination required of free agents before their contracts become official.

Bieber started Game 3 in both the Division Series and American League Championship Series before the Jays moved him to Game 4 for the World Series, wanting to give him an extra day of rest and avoid starting him twice in the series. But he showed no signs of strain in Game 4, allowing just one run in 5 1/3 innings. And while he gave up Will Smith’s go-ahead, 11th-inning homer on a 2-0 hanging slider in Game 7, he was pitching on three days rest and making his first relief appearance since March 2019.

Maybe Bieber just wanted stability; his wife, Kara, gave birth to their first child, a son named Kav, on March 14. But again, he could have worked out a better deal with the Jays, and perhaps he will at some point in the future.

For now, the mystery lingers.

I think Bieber might just be stupid. Like, there's no chance Atkins wouldn't have given him like 20M for 2026

[SeranthonySantander]

I always said I wanted Fairbanks at less than $11m which seems to be his value.

it is odd the rays wouldn’t pick that up for 1/11 though.  No trade value at all at that price?

[Brownie19]

15 minutes ago, SeranthonySantander said:

I always said I wanted Fairbanks at less than $11m which seems to be his value.

it is odd the rays wouldn’t pick that up for 1/11 though.  No trade value at all at that price?

The metrics under the hood haven't been great the past 2 seasons and he's been prone to injury. 

[Laika]

31 minutes ago, SeranthonySantander said:

I always said I wanted Fairbanks at less than $11m which seems to be his value.

it is odd the rays wouldn’t pick that up for 1/11 though.  No trade value at all at that price?

He was a 1 win RP and projected for 0.7 going forward

$9M to $11M is basically his market value on a one year deal

Rays can do better with that money 

[Spanky__99]

2 hours ago, BTS said:

Yeah. Given he had no takers at 1/11, I wonder if you could get him for like 2/15 + option kind of deal. 

 

Yeah, want!

[hanton]

load up with hi velo arms, Fairbanks k's per 9 is down alot compared to previous years (velo is also down)  try and get him at a discount

[Orgfiller]

32 minutes ago, hanton said:

load up with hi velo arms, Fairbanks k's per 9 is down alot compared to previous years (velo is also down)  try and get him at a discount

In Fairbanks' defense, he's made up for it by improving his BB/9 and Location+.

[BatFlip]

6 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

In Fairbanks' defense, he's made up for it by improving his BB/9 and Location+.

His walk rate is way down from his high K years and he put up a 3.28 SO/BB ratio last year.  With his velo down, hitters are finally hitting some HRs off him (not at an alarming rate).

I think he's a solid arm to add, but wouldn't want him on anything past a two year deal unless it's a team option.  This will be his age 32 season and If his velo continues to decline he could turn into a pumpkin.

1 year at $9M would be a yes please.

 

 

[Omar]

If Bieber is indeed concerned about passing a physical in free agency and hence chose the option it would be quite the kick in the nuts if he is damaged goods in any way. 

[Orgfiller]

27 minutes ago, BatFlip said:

His walk rate is way down from his high K years and he put up a 3.28 SO/BB ratio last year.  With his velo down, hitters are finally hitting some HRs off him (not at an alarming rate).

I think he's a solid arm to add, but wouldn't want him on anything past a two year deal unless it's a team option.  This will be his age 32 season and If his velo continues to decline he could turn into a pumpkin.

1 year at $9M would be a yes please.

 

 

Oh yeah, wasn't trying to imply he'd be the best arm in our bullpen or anything, there's definitely some concerning warning signs. Just mentioning that while the stuff has declined, he's somewhat tried to adjust by locating better so he doesn't totally fall off the table. He's not the monster he was in 22-23, but he should be a valuable reliever in the bullpen who you can feel comfortable putting into high leverage spots. And hopefully the red flags in his profile bring his price down to account for the risk.

[SeranthonySantander]

22 minutes ago, Omar said:

If Bieber is indeed concerned about passing a physical in free agency and hence chose the option it would be quite the kick in the nuts if he is damaged goods in any way. 

Yea but he would be able to freely say he was injured and still sign the option.  He seems like an honest guy, why hide the issue and ruin goodwill with fans?

If he had a known issue it is surprising he would be willing to go for game 7

If he was hurt, it will look bad on him and management for letting him go in the 11th.

[G-Snarls]

1 hour ago, Omar said:

If Bieber is indeed concerned about passing a physical in free agency and hence chose the option it would be quite the kick in the nuts if he is damaged goods in any way. 

Yes but he's def worth the gamble for 1 year 16M (4 of which he was getting even if he walked)

[jmomcc]

I get that there is an idea that's its cheaper to pay for back end in free agency than at the deadline just in pure value, but i think i'd rather just see what we need at that point. 

[Spanky__99]

From what I'm reading at the GM meetings etc, about the Jays and players they're in on. It seems as though they might be going over the 3rd CBT threshold of 284M, I never thought I'd see the day?  

[Laika]

4 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

From what I'm reading at the GM meetings etc, about the Jays and players they're in on. It seems as though they might be going over the 3rd CBT threshold of 284M, I never thought I'd see the day?  

Who knows. They have been in on literally everybody for years, so nothing has changed until we see it change. Not that anything needs to change... they could put together a strong team without increasing the budget. 

[Brownie19]

The Stuff+ on Fairbanks fastball has gone from 152 to 135 to 103 to 99 over the past 4 years.  Stuff+ on the slider has also declined for 4 straight years, but it's still a nasty pitch (145, 139, 132, 125).

I'm sure Fairbanks can still be an effective bullpen arm but it's not a great trend.

[Spanky__99]

19 hours ago, Omar said:

If Bieber is indeed concerned about passing a physical in free agency and hence chose the option it would be quite the kick in the nuts if he is damaged goods in any way. 

I don't think so, friendo, his velo is back to what it was pre TJS, and he's self admitted that his command will be better with more reps into next season, he just might like the org, honestly. I'm sure they're going to look at an extension.

[Spanky__99]

3 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

The Stuff+ on Fairbanks fastball has gone from 152 to 135 to 103 to 99 over the past 4 years.  Stuff+ on the slider has also declined for 4 straight years, but it's still a nasty pitch (145, 139, 132, 125).

I'm sure Fairbanks can still be an effective bullpen arm but it's not a great trend.

BTS suggestion for Fairbanks at 2/15M, similar to Yimi would be a good get, sign me up.  

[Brownie19]

2 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

BTS suggestion for Fairbanks at 2/15M, similar to Yimi would be a good get, sign me up.  

Yeah - that's perfectly fine.

[Jonn]

Should be noted that he suffers from Raynulds and does impact his ability to pitch in cold weather environments. 

[itaos]

For the right price why not

[SeranthonySantander]

49 minutes ago, Jonn said:

Should be noted that he suffers from Raynulds and does impact his ability to pitch in cold weather environments. 

Looking at his game logs he seems to do fine at cold climates like Baltimore, April and September.   Just glancing over the last few years.
 

I think it’s just uncomfortable for him.

He will suck it up and be fine here I’m sure