Sport Card collecting

[jaysblue]

32 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Not true at all. They just wont see the post Cup increase in value prior to retirement.

An Auston Matthews Rookie Card PSA Grade 10 let's say right now is worth $2K. 

If he never wins a Cup with the Maple Leafs or even another team, that card is not increasing anymore. Most likely it decreases and is worth a couple of hundred bucks instead. 

[jaysblue]

Hey Havok, how much does a Mats Sundin Rookie Card PSA 10 go for right now?

Thank you! 

[connorp2]

2 hours ago, jaysblue said:

It's a scam IMO and a business. 

You need to hope you get that special rookie card in that set and that its in perfect condition for it to be worth money. 

These companies like Beckett and PSA make money from grading cards. Costs $40-50 to grade one card and you have to send it to California. If I have a card that is expected to worth a couple thousand, I ain't doing that haha. You can usually get cards graded on the spot when they have the sports show every fall and spring at the International Centre in Toronto.

As well, they control the market in terms of how many 10's or 9's there are. What happens if your card is really a 9+ but they only give you a 8 something? So your card is worth less, even though it could be worth more. 

If you have a card worth lets say $5K book value, you're never getting that full book value when you sell. 

Lastly, it's the eye of the beholder. You need to find the right buyer for a certain card or sports item which could take time. Even if a card is worth $10-20K, you can't just unload it right away unless you find the right buyer. Not many people have that kind of cash lying around especially in this economy. At least with stocks, you can cashout anytime and get your money within 48 hours. 

As well, given the current state of the economy and high cost of living pretty much across Canada and the US, people have less disposable income and are going to think twice about spending that money on hobbies like sports cards and memorabilia. Trust me, even as a die-cast model collector, I see it in that hobby as well now. 

 

Thanks. I appreciate all takes. When I was young and cocky and came in to a bunch of money, I dove in to diamonds without knowing much and it didn’t go well, I’m taking a cautious approach and will probably start our targeting auction cards. I saw a Eury Bowman RC Yellow Refractor /50 sell for $100 graded 10. I maybe should’ve hopped on, I did not know they charged that much to grade and so I’ll try to look for pregraded if I can. I will actually send them to the “EBay vault”. I saw you pay 3% but you also don’t pay tax.

[John_Havok]

19 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Hey Havok, how much does a Mats Sundin Rookie Card PSA 10 go for right now?

Thank you! 

Mats Sundin rookie card was made when everything was overproduced. 

I have like 30 of them.

This is not a subject youre going to have more knowledge than me in, I assure you.

[jaysblue]

2 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Mats Sundin rookie card was made when everything was overproduced. 

I have like 30 of them.

This is not a subject youre going to have more knowledge than me in, I assure you.

Yes a lot of cards in the 80s and 90s were over produced, will give you that. 

But still...

If Auston Matthews never wins the Cup with the Leafs or any NHL team, his rookie card drops below $1000 guaranteed. Good luck trying to get book value for one as well afterwards. It never will be worth $2K or more unless he wins a Cup with the Leafs or another team. 

[John_Havok]

1 minute ago, jaysblue said:

If Auston Matthews never wins the Cup with the Leafs or any NHL team, his rookie card drops below $1000 guaranteed. Good luck trying to get book value for one as well afterwards. 

Hes a hall of fame player, his card value will be stable, just won't get the Cup bump up. 

 

[jaysblue]

24 minutes ago, connorp2 said:

Thanks. I appreciate all takes. When I was young and cocky and came in to a bunch of money, I dove in to diamonds without knowing much and it didn’t go well, I’m taking a cautious approach and will probably start our targeting auction cards. I saw a Eury Bowman RC Yellow Refractor /50 sell for $100 graded 10. I maybe should’ve hopped on, I did not know they charged that much to grade and so I’ll try to look for pregraded if I can. I will actually send them to the “EBay vault”. I saw you pay 3% but you also don’t pay tax.

You need to grade cards in order to sell them at maximum value. 

It makes sense to grade cards when they can be graded a 9 or 10 and if they can sell at high prices. 

Like for example, a card that is only worth $100 graded a 10, and yours grades only a 8.5 or 9, then technically you won't recover the cost. 

If the card lets say can be worth $2K if its graded a 10, then its worth getting it graded. However if that card grades lower, likely depends on how much the 8's and 9's book value, then maybe it's worth $400. Again depends on the card company, player etc. 

[jaysblue]

10 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Hes a hall of fame player, his card value will be stable, just won't get the Cup bump up. 

 

Pretty much if you buy an Auston Matthews rookie card for $2K right now, it's like making a $2K bet on the Leafs winning the Stanley Cup in the next decade. If Matthews wins a Cup, definitely that card will increase. How much of a bump do you think it would get?

If Matthews never wins a Cup, I just don't see a lineup of people willing to pay $2K for it. I think it'll continue to decrease and be worth under $1K especially after he's retired and when the newer generation of NHL Fans won't even care who Auston Matthews was. 

You're better off gambling on McDavid or play it safe by investing in a Crosby rookie card which likely will continue to increase as he retires, gets inducted into the Hall and gets older. 

[John_Havok]

2 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Pretty much if you buy an Auston Matthews rookie card for $2K right now, it's like making a $2K bet on the Leafs winning the Stanley Cup in the next decade. If Matthews wins a Cup, definitely that card will increase. How much of a bump do you think it would get?

If Matthews never wins a Cup, I just don't see a lineup of people willing to pay $2K for it. I think it'll continue to decrease and be worth under $1K especially after he's retired and when the newer generation of NHL Fans won't even care who Auston Matthews was. 

You're better off gambling on McDavid or play it safe by investing in a Crosby rookie card which likely will continue to increase as he retires, gets inducted into the Hall and gets older. 

There are 4 major bumps in a cards value: 

1. Rookie hype

2. Performance jumps out of seemingly nowhere by "nobodies" like Tage Thompson. But these bumps dont usually end up with incredibly high valuations since their cards started out so low. 

3. Cup wins

4. Hall of Fame.

Mvp awards usually see minor bumps for a ahort time, but nothing spectacular

#1 sets the tone for 3 and 4. If a guy is looking for home run card selling...  have to get them when they're rookies and see ideally both 3 and 4 down the line, along with a high grade... 9 or better. Also depends on which company dies the grading since PSA just gives blanket numbers as like 8, 9 or 10, but Beckett gives 4 separate grades for corners, face, centering and edges. To get a true black label 10 grade from Beckett is exceptionally rare, very much by design of course.

Missing #3 doesnt mean a HOF talented players card value will suddenly get cut in half. Market variances exist of course where people will sell for cheap for any number of reasons, but no HOF players cards value craters because they dont win a cup, they just wont go up as much. 

If they miss 3 and 4, a d all they had was the rookie hype and a decent but not great career, yeah they could go down a bit. 

There's very few cards though that have the kind of rookie hype around guys like Matthews, Crosby, McDavid, Ovechkin, Bedard etc. Won't be again for a while it looks like.

. 

[mphenhef]

On 8/16/2025 at 6:55 PM, connorp2 said:

I’m not going to look up Shaq bc I wasn’t collecting then but I remember the Fleer MJ rookie card quite well. $200 in Mint condition 1990. With auto, sold $3m not long ago. Oof. That wasn’t a rare card and you saw at shows all the time. 

That card came out before the big boom in popularity that led to the oversaturation of the market.  Likewise, Shohei and Trout rookie cards fetch a pretty Penny now as they debuted when the industry was down and less cards were made.  As others pointed out, the inclusion of numbered cards now adds a new element where they should retain value and even increase.  But even now with how many releases there are there are so many 1/1s kicking around too.

[Laika]

The tip is to just not do it. 

At your age, no part of your retirement plan should involve gambling on sports cards or other types of cards. 

If you were to get into Pokemon cards you would probably be buying the top. It's pretty overheated. You can't even get cards at retail. 
I think sports cards are sort of doing the same thing, to a lesser extent, although the market is a bit more complex. And Topps is jacking retail prices so the new sets aren't flying off the shelf. 

Ripping packs is strictly negative. 

Trying to pick rookies and pre-stars and speculate on price increases is gambling, obviously. 

It can be fun as a hobby and if you think about it as collecting with the side benefit that sometimes the cards appreciate in value or hold their value. But it's not going to make you money unless you get lucky. It's going to be a money pit more likely. 

And liquidity is a massive problem. Your options to sell are EBay and you lose the EBay rake and deal with shipping issues, or sell at a show for 80% of market value, or sell at a card shop for 60% of market value. 

So the only reasonable way to do it is to just budget a bit of money a year as gambling money, essentially, and take your shots. If you do that, buy single cards rather than rip packs. Maybe rip one box of packs a year to scratch the itch and have fun - if your idea of fun is spending $80 to pull one holographic Davis Schneider parallel. 

What platform are you using for fractional commercial real estate investing? Can be a good idea I guess if it is closer to a REIT ETF but if you are talking about some weirdo app saying 20% annual returns and microfractional ownership, you are also just gambling and it might be a scam. 

Just do the boring thing man. 1) debt free 2) max out your 401k and other tax beneficial retirement investment s*** you can do 3) buy broad ETFs and be patient 4) if you ever see headlines about Bitcoin being "dead" again, load up on some

Do you need to try to make multiples for any reason? Shouldn't your investment goal from here on just be to make sure you never go broke and can afford a good retirement home / vacations? 

[Terminator]

I collected a ton during the junk wax era when I was a kid and all of that stuff is worth almost nothing.

The resurgence has definitely peaked my interest but I still plan on mostly staying away. It's become far more expensive and there's no way it pays off. I'd be better off doing more sports gambling.

That said, I still might whet my appetite by picking up a rookie card of Vlad Jr. and Kirk because of the extensions and can display them on the shelf in my office. Maybe throw in a Halladay and Stieb rookie too.

[connorp2]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

The tip is to just not do it. 

At your age, no part of your retirement plan should involve gambling on sports cards or other types of cards. 

If you were to get into Pokemon cards you would probably be buying the top. It's pretty overheated. You can't even get cards at retail. 
I think sports cards are sort of doing the same thing, to a lesser extent, although the market is a bit more complex. And Topps is jacking retail prices so the new sets aren't flying off the shelf. 

Ripping packs is strictly negative. 

Trying to pick rookies and pre-stars and speculate on price increases is gambling, obviously. 

It can be fun as a hobby and if you think about it as collecting with the side benefit that sometimes the cards appreciate in value or hold their value. But it's not going to make you money unless you get lucky. It's going to be a money pit more likely. 

And liquidity is a massive problem. Your options to sell are EBay and you lose the EBay rake and deal with shipping issues, or sell at a show for 80% of market value, or sell at a card shop for 60% of market value. 

So the only reasonable way to do it is to just budget a bit of money a year as gambling money, essentially, and take your shots. If you do that, buy single cards rather than rip packs. Maybe rip one box of packs a year to scratch the itch and have fun - if your idea of fun is spending $80 to pull one holographic Davis Schneider parallel. 

What platform are you using for fractional commercial real estate investing? Can be a good idea I guess if it is closer to a REIT ETF but if you are talking about some weirdo app saying 20% annual returns and microfractional ownership, you are also just gambling and it might be a scam. 

Just do the boring thing man. 1) debt free 2) max out your 401k and other tax beneficial retirement investment s*** you can do 3) buy broad ETFs and be patient 4) if you ever see headlines about Bitcoin being "dead" again, load up on some

Do you need to try to make multiples for any reason? Shouldn't your investment goal from here on just be to make sure you never go broke and can afford a good retirement home / vacations? 

I’m 46. I’ll probably buy a house in the next year . Probably $500k, basically a good starter home in non-major city suburban American. I don’t think I could retire in my 60’s from boredom anyway.. So figure retire at the end of my 30 year mortgage. If I have a 5% match, should be able to put away $20k/yr 401k.. Then social security or course, so that’s the foundation plan. Like you said, make sure I’m debt free

i actually don’t like the fractional CRE. I’m more of a hands on investor. Like in hotels, I’ve really switched from Operations to Revenue Management, as it’s what I enjoy. Playing the game. But I’m too old to get in the stock game and I like being very good at what I do.

I don’t need to hit any home runs, I definitely won’t be the guy ripping packs. All these tips have been good though. I only need to make 7% to match S&P 500, so we’ll see.
 

 

[Laika]

How can someone be "too old to get into the stock game" but not see themselves as too old to get into the speculative sports card investment game? 

Head, shake it. 

Learn 2 stock

Not sure why you would go 30 year am

[connorp2]

20 hours ago, Laika said:

How can someone be "too old to get into the stock game" but not see themselves as too old to get into the speculative sports card investment game? 

Head, shake it. 

Learn 2 stock

Not sure why you would go 30 year am

Well, I’d enjoy cards more and my son is into it, as I said. So blow me!

You’re probably right on the mortgage, I didn’t get serious about it yet, so didn’t look, but especially if I only buy $500k, I would be able to pay it off faster without an issue. 

[John_Havok]

On 8/18/2025 at 10:45 AM, connorp2 said:

I’m 46. I’ll probably buy a house in the next year . Probably $500k, basically a good starter home in non-major city suburban American. I don’t think I could retire in my 60’s from boredom anyway.. So figure retire at the end of my 30 year mortgage. If I have a 5% match, should be able to put away $20k/yr 401k.. Then social security or course, so that’s the foundation plan. Like you said, make sure I’m debt free

i actually don’t like the fractional CRE. I’m more of a hands on investor. Like in hotels, I’ve really switched from Operations to Revenue Management, as it’s what I enjoy. Playing the game. But I’m too old to get in the stock game and I like being very good at what I do.

I don’t need to hit any home runs, I definitely won’t be the guy ripping packs. All these tips have been good though. I only need to make 7% to match S&P 500, so we’ll see.
 

 

Having been an avid collector for close to 30 years, I can tell ya there's really nothing like ripping packs - even if you don't hit on anything big. It's nostalgia for sure from when I was a kid and wanting to get as many of my favorite players as I could, back when cards were dirt cheap and every card set from Score to ProSet, O-Pee-Chee, Topps, Panini (though they were more into sticker books back then), and Upper Deck could be filled easily with minimal money spent. 

I remember the first year UD made cards for McDonalds and the first holographic cards with Wayne Gretzky. The first real insert subset from Upper Deck (Brett Hull - including on card signed autograph super rare cards) and the Eric Lindros subset you could only get from Score by buying a set straight from the factory. 

Good times. 

[Pendleton]

 

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, Pendleton said:

 

Thats a gorgeous patch. 

Completely f*cking ruined by a sticker autograph 

[Pendleton]

 

[Laika]

Not sports cards 

But, found a tin of 30 year old magic cards in my parents' attic and some of these things are worth $100 each lol. For lightly played cards. Crazy.

[John_Havok]

5 hours ago, Pendleton said:

 

I doubt a 1 of 1 Superfractor with auto was ever sold for $300 to anyone. A card of even a star player of that type steals at like 1000$ minimum right out of the pack let alone one thats been graded a PSA 10.

Granted she might hmgot the grading done...but im skeptical to that $300 number 

 

[connorp2]

On 9/10/2025 at 1:26 AM, John_Havok said:

I doubt a 1 of 1 Superfractor with auto was ever sold for $300 to anyone. A card of even a star player of that type steals at like 1000$ minimum right out of the pack let alone one thats been graded a PSA 10.

Granted she might hmgot the grading done...but im skeptical to that $300 number 

 

CR was a “star” only for defense really. Pretty non-roids Anthony Santander with the bat, otherwise. 

[Pendleton]

 

[Pendleton]

https://www.topps.com/products/vladimir-guerrero-jr-2025-mlb-topps-now®-card-827?irclickid=xTFyoqWTtxycUQN11pURtz5iUkp3MA0HpVuoVc0&sharedid=&irpid=2700102&utm_source=impact&utm_medium=affiliate&irgwc=1

 

Topps now card commemorating Vlad's grand slam. Looks like you send away for the base card ($11.99 each or there's savings in bundles) and have a chance to get one of the exclusive versions instead. Man it seems like Topps would have been a good company to invest in a few years ago, they must be raking it in right now 

[Abomination]

On 9/9/2025 at 10:39 PM, Laika said:

Not sports cards 

But, found a tin of 30 year old magic cards in my parents' attic and some of these things are worth $100 each lol. For lightly played cards. Crazy.

Was that old tin of cards yours? :)
We used to play all the time when I was in high school. I still have mine somewhere. I know the dual mana cards used to be worth a good amount, but I never had any.

[John_Havok]

On 10/7/2025 at 2:34 AM, Abomination said:

Was that old tin of cards yours? :)
We used to play all the time when I was in high school. I still have mine somewhere. I know the dual mana cards used to be worth a good amount, but I never had any.

Black Lotus was/still is the king of value.  

[BTS]

A lot of talk in here about grades, but if you're looking to maximize the likelihood of a card holding/building value, you should be looking at cards that are numbered so low that they don't need to be graded. You don't want a card that there are 500K of and that needs a PSA-10 to go from $15 to $200. You want a low numbered card (/1, /10, /70 etc...) that people are a lot less likely to grade. Look at topps dynasty auto rookie cards of great players - they're all number to /10 or below and nobody grades them. Topps heritage red ink rookie autos number to less than 75 etc... You're better off with an Ohtani or Whitt or Judge red ink rc auto or dynasty auto than junk that's only valuable because of the PSA-10 grade. 

Also, look at population reports on PSA's site. There are like 25,000 base topps Soto rookies with a PSA-10. That's why the card went from like $400 to $70 orr whatever it is now. 

But more importantly - Laika is right. Look at it as a hobby that you might possibly make a buck on if you're disciplined. 

Don't invest in pitchers. They don't hold value unless its Maddux or Pedro or something. Don't sink thousands of dollars unto Eury Perez, Connor. Just buy a high end Ohtani or like Sandy Koufax or something. 

[John_Havok]

23 hours ago, BTS said:

A lot of talk in here about grades, but if you're looking to maximize the likelihood of a card holding/building value, you should be looking at cards that are numbered so low that they don't need to be graded. You don't want a card that there are 500K of and that needs a PSA-10 to go from $15 to $200. You want a low numbered card (/1, /10, /70 etc...) that people are a lot less likely to grade. Look at topps dynasty auto rookie cards of great players - they're all number to /10 or below and nobody grades them. Topps heritage red ink rookie autos number to less than 75 etc... You're better off with an Ohtani or Whitt or Judge red ink rc auto or dynasty auto than junk that's only valuable because of the PSA-10 grade. 

Also, look at population reports on PSA's site. There are like 25,000 base topps Soto rookies with a PSA-10. That's why the card went from like $400 to $70 orr whatever it is now. 

But more importantly - Laika is right. Look at it as a hobby that you might possibly make a buck on if you're disciplined. 

Don't invest in pitchers. They don't hold value unless its Maddux or Pedro or something. Don't sink thousands of dollars unto Eury Perez, Connor. Just buy a high end Ohtani or like Sandy Koufax or something. 

This is an important point. Some card companies now in their very high end products actually put low serial #'d cards (/10, /1 etc) out already slabbed, but not all of them, so there's really no point in grading them. 

First, the grading companies charge way too much money to do it, and it really doesn't add to the value at all. 

There's some nuance with grading the base card rookies... on one hand, yes, getting any massively hyped baseball player's base rookie card graded doesn't make such sense since there ends up being thousands of them as you said. But for the types of players that have 0 hype when they're a rookie, break out later... that CAN make sense since the populations of those guys are going to be way lower. 

[Pendleton]

Note that both cards are 1st Bowman autos. Like I said before, if you do want to try and play this game, I think those are the right lottery tickets to go after. 

[Laika]

Pulled one of these a year ago

Just looked and it is up from $80 to like $500 USD raw in the last year

https://www.sportscardspro.com/game/baseball-cards-2025-topps-home-field-advantage/shohei-ohtani-ha-5