Blue Jays (Lauer) vs Orioles (TBD): 7/29/25, 6:35pm

[Stangstag]

10 minutes ago, Grant77 said:

FIP:

Jeff Hoffman: 4.15

David Bednar: 1.96

Jhoan Duran: 2.48

Griffin Jax: 2.00

Cade Smith: 2.11

All of the elite closers at least have a FIP below 4. You need to take Hoffman's season as a whole, this is who he is. Bednar demoted and he's still this good.

I'm certainly not saying he's s*** or can't have a role on this team, but we know beyond a shadow of a doubt that he's not a playoff calibre closer. He's shown us several times that we need someone better, including tonight, where we needed him as badly as we have all season and he was horrendous.

Now do xFIP. He’s not as bad as you think, he’s been extremely bad with the long ball though which has led to a bloated ERA.

I agree though that I’d prefer someone a bit more reliable at this point because he’s be very jekyll/hyde these last couple months.

Funny that Bednar has turned it around so much that his numbers look elite again. Dude looked toast and was literally sent down to AAA. Devin Williams would have been murdered by Yankees fans in the streets a couple months back.

Relievers are so volatile, and even the “elite” ones can look bad time to time. Not saying Hoffman is elite but he’s shown flashes of being that. And im sure 29 other teams would gladly take him as a late-inning option.

[Grant77]

1 hour ago, Stangstag said:

Now do xFIP. He’s not as bad as you think, he’s been extremely bad with the long ball though which has led to a bloated ERA.

I agree though that I’d prefer someone a bit more reliable at this point because he’s be very jekyll/hyde these last couple months.

Funny that Bednar has turned it around so much that his numbers look elite again. Dude looked toast and was literally sent down to AAA. Devin Williams would have been murdered by Yankees fans in the streets a couple months back.

Relievers are so volatile, and even the “elite” ones can look bad time to time. Not saying Hoffman is elite but he’s shown flashes of being that. And im sure 29 other teams would gladly take him as a late-inning option.

Jax has the best xFIP in the league. You can cherry pick stats to make anyone look good, but the fact is, Hoffman has blown way too many games to be a reliable closer in the playoffs. 

I'll certainly take him as a late inning option, just not the closer on a team that wants to make some noise. He was not focused at all today, it was an awful performance. We can't afford to wait for him to figure it out.

[G-Snarls]

[G-Snarls]

It was *mostly* that one short stretch that was a problem 

[Grant77]

6 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

It was *mostly* that one short stretch that was a problem 

Tonight's game, for example, isn't counted as a blown save, even though he was responsible for the loss. It's not a very useful statistic.

Every hitter on our team would be hitting .400 if we took out their bad stretches. It happened, we shouldn't just ignore it.

[Stangstag]

30 minutes ago, Grant77 said:

Tonight's game, for example, isn't counted as a blown save, even though he was responsible for the loss. It's not a very useful statistic.

Every hitter on our team would be hitting .400 if we took out their bad stretches. It happened, we shouldn't just ignore it.

Yeah you’re right, closers should blow 0 saves and give up 0 runs. Completely unacceptable.

We should also remove Bassitt from the rotation for that god-awful performance against this s***** last place Os team. He was not focused at all. Can’t keep sending him out there to lose games.

And Bo swinging at that ball 4 yesterday to end the game?? Bench him. These guys aren’t focused at all! Atkins needs to acquire a new SS asap!

[Grant77]

49 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Yeah you’re right, closers should blow 0 saves and give up 0 runs. Completely unacceptable.

We should also remove Bassitt from the rotation for that god-awful performance against this s***** last place Os team. He was not focused at all. Can’t keep sending him out there to lose games.

And Bo swinging at that ball 4 yesterday to end the game?? Bench him. These guys aren’t focused at all! Atkins needs to acquire a new SS asap!

Nice hyperbole, but expecting your highly paid closer to have an ERA under 5 is realistic. Expecting a 20+ million starter to eat some innings in an extremely important situation is also realistic.

You talk as if I want to DFA them or something, when it's perfectly valid and realistic criticism that the players and management themselves would agree with.

[Nexii]

23 minutes ago, Grant77 said:

Nice hyperbole, but expecting your highly paid closer to have an ERA under 5 is realistic. Expecting a 20+ million starter to eat some innings in an extremely important situation is also realistic.

You talk as if I want to DFA them or something, when it's perfectly valid and realistic criticism that the players and management themselves would agree with.

Yea I've given up, a lot of cope around our pitching. It's not bad by any means but no one we have is elite.  

[Brownie19]

Guys - Grant is always right.  Why are you debating/arguing with him?  

[Grant77]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Guys - Grant is always right.  Why are you debating/arguing with him?  

Criticism is perfectly valid after showing a lackluster effort and lack of focus in losing 3 games to a last place team. This isn't a debate about who is right or wrong. That's in the box score and indisputable.

I always get s*** on for being too optimistic and then the moment I post some valid criticism, you can't even bother to make a real response to it. Don't be so obtuse, try actually talking about baseball for once.

[Brownie19]

24 minutes ago, Grant77 said:

Criticism is perfectly valid after showing a lackluster effort and lack of focus in losing 3 games to a last place team. This isn't a debate about who is right or wrong. That's in the box score and indisputable.

I always get s*** on for being too optimistic and then the moment I post some valid criticism, you can't even bother to make a real response to it. Don't be so obtuse, try actually talking about baseball for once.

1st off, who's ever accused you of being too optimistic?

2nd - after over a decade on this board, I unfortunately see no point in trying to talk baseball with you.  You don't seem to acknowledged the other side of any debate. It's like you stick your fingers in your ears and say "lalalalalalalala" every time anyone tries to make a counterpoint and then just double down to try and prove you're "right".  Sorry, but it seems to be your character flaw.  Either own it, or change it.  

I have no issue with you contributing on the board.  It's fine, but watching people engage in a 2 page debate with you is painful at times.  

[sliderguy35]

hoffman is definitely elite, you don't luck your way into having a K%-BB% over 27% two years in a row. it feels overly reductive to say that he's been unlucky but there's a lot of research about how pitchers don't really have a ton of control over how many of their flyballs become homeruns in small samples.

hoffman's having the 10th worst season by HR/FB rate (21.7%) by any qualified reliever in the last 5 years, and the worst season by HR/FB rate for any pitcher in that timeframe who's contact is primarily dominated by flyballs (40%+). just gotta weather the storm & trust that the regression monster shows itself as the sample size gets larger in higher leverage innings down the line.

[Grant77]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

1st off, who's ever accused you of being too optimistic?

2nd - after over a decade on this board, I unfortunately see no point in trying to talk baseball with you.  You don't seem to acknowledged the other side of any debate. It's like you stick your fingers in your ears and say "lalalalalalalala" every time anyone tries to make a counterpoint and then just double down to try and prove you're "right".  Sorry, but it seems to be your character flaw.  Either own it, or change it.  

I have no issue with you contributing on the board.  It's fine, but watching people engage in a 2 page debate with you is painful at times.  

I get criticized all of the time for being too optimistic about our chances, too high on prospects, underrating our opposition, etc. That bias certainly causes me to get some things wrong, but that's the case with anyone. I remember several prospects where I absolutely loved them (Cecil, Sanchez, Groshans, Pardinho, etc.) and I was so wrong. I loved the Chad Green signing and was wrong (especially after I have defended him all season). That being said, I'd rather be a glass half full kind of guy and get some things wrong then be down on the team all of the time. This is one of the few/only instances I have given heavy criticism to some of the players this season. I don't like what I perceive as a lack of effort and focus against lesser opponents. 

Again, there hasn't been any 'right' or 'wrong' in the discussion in this thread. We're discussing the age old argument of DIPS vs results in regard to Hoffman and whether or not we should go for another closer. There's a chance that Hoffman goes on a great run and flourishes in the playoffs. I don't think it's in the cards, It's an opinion. Please take note of this and I'll gladly say that I was wrong at the end of the season. Everyone on the internet thinks that everyone is always wrong and never says it, when that isn't true. Your horrible attitude just ruins baseball discussions for everyone else.

Your character flaw is never actually discussing baseball and just being pissy and grouchy all of the time, instead of engaging in discussion. Work on that and I'll work on agreeing with everyone instead of offering counterarguments.

[Grant77]

1 hour ago, sliderguy35 said:

hoffman is definitely elite, you don't luck your way into having a K%-BB% over 27% two years in a row. it feels overly reductive to say that he's been unlucky but there's a lot of research about how pitchers don't really have a ton of control over how many of their flyballs become homeruns in small samples.

hoffman's having the 10th worst season by HR/FB rate (21.7%) by any qualified reliever in the last 5 years, and the worst season by HR/FB rate for any pitcher in that timeframe who's contact is primarily dominated by flyballs (40%+). just gotta weather the storm & trust that the regression monster shows itself as the sample size gets larger in higher leverage innings down the line.

I agree with most of that, but we do have to note that his xERA and FIP are about replacement level, even with the elite K/BB numbers. His barrel% is exceptionally high at 15% and his hard hit% is also well over 40%. Batters are squaring him up a lot, even if there is some luck involved.

His career HR/FB in over 500 innings is over 14%, which is very high. I understand that it's mostly out of the control of pitchers, but we have to consider that he may be more HR prone than other relivers, given the results.

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, sliderguy35 said:

hoffman is definitely elite, you don't luck your way into having a K%-BB% over 27% two years in a row. it feels overly reductive to say that he's been unlucky but there's a lot of research about how pitchers don't really have a ton of control over how many of their flyballs become homeruns in small samples.

hoffman's having the 10th worst season by HR/FB rate (21.7%) by any qualified reliever in the last 5 years, and the worst season by HR/FB rate for any pitcher in that timeframe who's contact is primarily dominated by flyballs (40%+). just gotta weather the storm & trust that the regression monster shows itself as the sample size gets larger in higher leverage innings down the line.

I'm speaking for myself here, but you sir, have been a great addition to this forum and welcome.

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, sliderguy35 said:

hoffman is definitely elite, you don't luck your way into having a K%-BB% over 27% two years in a row. it feels overly reductive to say that he's been unlucky but there's a lot of research about how pitchers don't really have a ton of control over how many of their flyballs become homeruns in small samples.

hoffman's having the 10th worst season by HR/FB rate (21.7%) by any qualified reliever in the last 5 years, and the worst season by HR/FB rate for any pitcher in that timeframe who's contact is primarily dominated by flyballs (40%+). just gotta weather the storm & trust that the regression monster shows itself as the sample size gets larger in higher leverage innings down the line.

Hoffman reminds me of the 2018 version of Ken Giles.  Almost everything under the hood looks great, but the actual results are discouraging.  I believe most of the predictors of future outcomes suggest he's just fine.  FWIW - Giles was f*cking nails in 2019 before his arm fell off.

[Brownie19]

14 minutes ago, Grant77 said:

I agree with most of that, but we do have to note that his xERA and FIP are about replacement level, even with the elite K/BB numbers. His barrel% is exceptionally high at 15% and his hard hit% is also well over 40%. Batters are squaring him up a lot, even if there is some luck involved.

His career HR/FB in over 500 innings is over 14%, which is very high. I understand that it's mostly out of the control of pitchers, but we have to consider that he may be more HR prone than other relivers, given the results.

This is a guy who "found himself" at age 29.  I'm not sure including the results as a starter and early in his career matter much.  His HR/FB ratio in the previous 3 years is about 8%, which is still a tad high, but not out of the norm from several dominant RPers.

[sliderguy35]

12 minutes ago, Grant77 said:

I agree with most of that, but we do have to note that his xERA and FIP are about replacement level, even with the elite K/BB numbers. His barrel% is exceptionally high at 15% and his hard hit% is also well over 40%. Batters are squaring him up a lot, even if there is some luck involved.

His career HR/FB in over 500 innings is over 14%, which is very high. I understand that it's mostly out of the control of pitchers, but we have to consider that he may be more HR prone than other relivers, given the results.

You're lumping in all of the Rockies & Reds years where he was a starter and also bad. Since he went to Philly, started throwing 3 ticks harder & developed his new slider / splitter, his HR/FB rate was 8.3% which is a bit less than league average.

FIP is tied to the unreasonably high home run rate & barrel rate for pitchers is essentially just as unreliable for pitchers as HR/FB% is. (it takes about 400 balls in play for pitcher barrel rate to stabilize https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/30584/baseball-therapy-getting-to-the-bottom-of-the-barrel/). the xERA is high because of all the barrels, but again it's a lot of variance baked into that (which is why in the mlb.com explainer, they say that xERA isn't a predictive metric)

don't get me wrong, it's frustrating to watch him continue to give up runs in big games, but there's a reason i keep bringing up k-bb% in every thread, it's one of the best predictive metrics out there & we've just gotta trust that things will work out eventually

12 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

I'm speaking for myself here, but you sir, have been a great addition to this forum and welcome.

thank you!

7 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Hoffman reminds me of the 2018 version of Ken Giles.  Almost everything under the hood looks great, but the actual results are discouraging.  I believe most of the predictors of future outcomes suggest he's just fine.  FWIW - Giles was f*cking nails in 2019 before his arm fell off.

great comp, but hoffman's been even better under the hood FWIW

[Laika]

I am not worried about Hoffman's skills at all, as far as the term of the contract is concerned. 

I am mildly worried about his mental game and maybe the command he has of his pitch mix being consistent enough this season. But that's super anecdotal fan stuff. 

It is hard to imagine trading for a CLOSER and bumping him down. Much easier to tell a guy like Bednar that he is setting up than it is to tell the big money free agent that you are demoting them. And it doesn't matter IMO. If they get a "1B" reliever the pen is improved regardless of which inning he pitches. 

[Grant77]

36 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

You're lumping in all of the Rockies & Reds years where he was a starter and also bad. Since he went to Philly, started throwing 3 ticks harder & developed his new slider / splitter, his HR/FB rate was 8.3% which is a bit less than league average.

FIP is tied to the unreasonably high home run rate & barrel rate for pitchers is essentially just as unreliable for pitchers as HR/FB% is. (it takes about 400 balls in play for pitcher barrel rate to stabilize https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/30584/baseball-therapy-getting-to-the-bottom-of-the-barrel/). the xERA is high because of all the barrels, but again it's a lot of variance baked into that (which is why in the mlb.com explainer, they say that xERA isn't a predictive metric)

don't get me wrong, it's frustrating to watch him continue to give up runs in big games, but there's a reason i keep bringing up k-bb% in every thread, it's one of the best predictive metrics out there & we've just gotta trust that things will work out eventually

thank you!

great comp, but hoffman's been even better under the hood FWIW

I'm just looking at the largest sample possible, his entire career. Earlier in this thread, I saw the same kind of  argument of 'if you remove his bad outings', he's really good. Well of course he is.

I take your point that xERA is not predictive (although FIP is) and that the barrels could be a fluke, but I have noted in the past (not to steal Laika's point) that he has put an awful lot of fastballs in prime hitting areas and his pitch mix has been far from ideal. That's just opinion of course, but I have seen analysts note the same thing. (notably Dan Szymborski on Blair & Barker, who was concerned about Hoffman)

You make some great points and I do expect him to be better going forward, but I maintain my stance that we need an additional option at closer and that Bednar is probably a better pitcher.

Welcome to the forum as well. It's great to have you on board.

[Nexii]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

I am not worried about Hoffman's skills at all, as far as the term of the contract is concerned. 

I am mildly worried about his mental game and maybe the command he has of his pitch mix being consistent enough this season. But that's super anecdotal fan stuff. 

It is hard to imagine trading for a CLOSER and bumping him down. Much easier to tell a guy like Bednar that he is setting up than it is to tell the big money free agent that you are demoting them. And it doesn't matter IMO. If they get a "1B" reliever the pen is improved regardless of which inning he pitches. 

Yea the closer role is pretty overrated these days. Little & Fisher are already much better than Hoffman. I guess it works out for us if we get a good reliever and use them in high leverage instead of as a closer

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Hoffman reminds me of the 2018 version of Ken Giles.  Almost everything under the hood looks great, but the actual results are discouraging.  I believe most of the predictors of future outcomes suggest he's just fine.  FWIW - Giles was f*cking nails in 2019 before his arm fell off.

Thats a great comp

[Spanky__99]

5 hours ago, Laika said:

I am not worried about Hoffman's skills at all, as far as the term of the contract is concerned. 

I am mildly worried about his mental game and maybe the command he has of his pitch mix being consistent enough this season. But that's super anecdotal fan stuff. 

It is hard to imagine trading for a CLOSER and bumping him down. Much easier to tell a guy like Bednar that he is setting up than it is to tell the big money free agent that you are demoting them. And it doesn't matter IMO. If they get a "1B" reliever the pen is improved regardless of which inning he pitches. 

100% agree. It's his job to lose no matter who they obtain.