2025 Trade Deadline

[jmomcc]

12 minutes ago, max silver said:

I'm lukewarm on Severino. My concern with him is that despite the high end velocity he's morphed into a pitch to contact guy. I thought that this could be due to a poorly optimized pitch mix but he's simply not garnering whiffs with any of his offerings this season.

He seems to just not throw many sliders any more and stuff plus loves that pitch. I'd like to know why he stopped. 

[Laika]

43 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

My immediate reaction to this is yes yes yes do it now. Probably means its too light. 

it's probably too light but the Marlins are one of the teams that might actually want/value a couple of this bats Toronto has at/near MLB

Maybe it's RJ Shreck or Pinango or Kasevich instead of Roden/Loperfido. 

[jmomcc]

4 minutes ago, Laika said:

it's probably too light but the Marlins are one of the teams that might actually want/value a couple of this bats Toronto has at/near MLB

Maybe it's RJ Shreck or Pinango or Kasevich instead of Roden/Loperfido. 

Yea, marlins, As, cleveland maybe are teams that really value control and close to the show. 
 

I'd do anything close to that deal plus 30% even, and honestly do that and severino. Two starters for next year as well. 

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, Terminator said:

Yeah I like him too. 

• Buying low on 2022 CY winner
• 2.5 years of control
• Just had TJS so he's unlikely to blow out his elbow for the remainder of his deal
• Good fit- never a huge K guy so our elite defense helps him more than most
• 75th percentile outcome he stabilizes the rotation and is a Bassitt replacement next year
• 25th percentile outcome he regains most of his lost form and is an SP2

Go get him.

I agree, I just think there's enough teams thinking the same way that the "buy low" wont be as low as we think.

[max silver]

41 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

He seems to just not throw many sliders any more and stuff plus loves that pitch. I'd like to know why he stopped. 

Severino's slider has only garnered a 14% whiff rate this season so it's not a great pitch although it's been more effective at generating whiffs in prior seasons. His sweeper is a tad better but still only 21% whiff rate. Perhaps if he spent an offseason in a quality pitching lab he could redesign his pitch mix a bit to unlock a higher ceiling as he's more of an innings eater type at present.

[jmomcc]

19 minutes ago, max silver said:

Severino's slider has only garnered a 14% whiff rate this season so it's not a great pitch although it's been more effective at generating whiffs in prior seasons. His sweeper is a tad better but still only 21% whiff rate. Perhaps if he spent an offseason in a quality pitching lab he could redesign his pitch mix a bit to unlock a higher ceiling as he's more of an innings eater type at present.

Possibly but that's basically all that is available anyway. And then there's stuff to work on over the offseason. 

[metafour]

2 hours ago, Terminator said:

Yeah I like him too. 

• Buying low on 2022 CY winner
• 2.5 years of control
• Just had TJS so he's unlikely to blow out his elbow for the remainder of his deal
• Good fit- never a huge K guy so our elite defense helps him more than most
• 75th percentile outcome he stabilizes the rotation and is a Bassitt replacement next year
• 25th percentile outcome he regains most of his lost form and is an SP2

Go get him.

Alcantara makes more sense as an offseason acquisition.

While he shoved today against the Padres, his previous 4 starts were not good at all. The problem here is that Jays are in a playoff race and they cant be throwing him out there on "re-find your groove" outings and hoping for the best when the results this season have largely been really bad. 

One start doesn't mean that he is "back".

[max silver]

1 hour ago, metafour said:

Alcantara makes more sense as an offseason acquisition.

While he shoved today against the Padres, his previous 4 starts were not good at all. The problem here is that Jays are in a playoff race and they cant be throwing him out there on "re-find your groove" outings and hoping for the best when the results this season have largely been really bad. 

One start doesn't mean that he is "back".

I had a peak at the Statcast box score for Alcanatara's start today and he allowed 10 hard hit balls so it appears as though he was rather fortunate to escape without allowing further damage.

[Spanky__99]

21 hours ago, max silver said:

I'm lukewarm on Severino. My concern with him is that despite the high end velocity he's morphed into a pitch to contact guy. I thought that this could be due to a poorly optimized pitch mix but he's simply not garnering whiffs with any of his offerings this season.

And he's way overpaid.

[BatFlip]

1 hour ago, Spanky__99 said:

And he's way overpaid.

The juice is definitely not worth the squeeze on Severino

[Spanky__99]

58 minutes ago, BatFlip said:

The juice is definitely not worth the squeeze on Severino

Definitely not, you can get a similar arm and a leverage RP in savings. His contract is whack.

[sliderguy35]

the start of sandy's season was legitimately bad, but he's been a mid 3's FIP guy for nearly 2 months now (exactly the same as yamamoto since june 1st) & his awful strand rate is kinda masking how much better he's pitched since then. he's still not pitching to his 2022 standard, but the argument that he's a write-off for this year & you're buying for next year feels off base. 

something i haven't really seen anyone talking about is that from march to june, his arm angle was down a few degrees (31 degrees vs 34/35) & his release height was down 0.1ft, which might have been partially why his command was shakier & his shapes weren't playing as well (sinker / changeup guys usually want to have a higher release height so there's a steeper angle into the zone). in july, his arm angle went back to 33 degrees, and his release height was the same as it was in 2022/2023. lo & behold, he's only walked 5% of hitters & his stuff grades on the sinker are way up.

it feels like a no-brainer to go out and get him, i'd give up any of the top guys other than maybe nimmala (TINSTAAPP people!!!) + a pretty healthy package of other guys, especially considering you get him for 2 more years AFTER this.

[jmomcc]

Severino is probably not a good contract but that's a relative term. He's like 30% of oakland's payroll next year. He would be 10% of ours. The whole point of being a big market team is taking 'bad contracts' because we can afford to. The only contracts generally that are majority good deals are either minimum, arbitration or early extensions. That's it. 
 

Also, because we are a big market team we can use money as well as prospects to make deals. And there are less teams able to use money, so therefore it is a softer market. Severino should be cheaper therefore than someone like kellar, even after factoring difference in performance. 
 

Also, he does have some factors that make him attractive. If our stuff model is similar to the public ones, then he does have pretty good stuff. 108 stuff+. 104 fastball, 95 sinker, 94 cutter, 92 change and a 131 slider that he barely throws. He's also barely lost any velo. 
 

Its not hard to look at that and see potential. And it should be cheap. 

 

 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, sliderguy35 said:

the start of sandy's season was legitimately bad, but he's been a mid 3's FIP guy for nearly 2 months now (exactly the same as yamamoto since june 1st) & his awful strand rate is kinda masking how much better he's pitched since then. he's still not pitching to his 2022 standard, but the argument that he's a write-off for this year & you're buying for next year feels off base. 

something i haven't really seen anyone talking about is that from march to june, his arm angle was down a few degrees (31 degrees vs 34/35) & his release height was down 0.1ft, which might have been partially why his command was shakier & his shapes weren't playing as well (sinker / changeup guys usually want to have a higher release height so there's a steeper angle into the zone). in july, his arm angle went back to 33 degrees, and his release height was the same as it was in 2022/2023. lo & behold, he's only walked 5% of hitters & his stuff grades on the sinker are way up.

it feels like a no-brainer to go out and get him, i'd give up any of the top guys other than maybe nimmala (TINSTAAPP people!!!) + a pretty healthy package of other guys, especially considering you get him for 2 more years AFTER this.

Alcantara is a total reclamation project at this point of time, and I'd want no part of sending a large prospect package out in a deadline deal as it's far from a given that he could even return to being an effective rotation member this season. Unless the Marlins are looking to just get out of his deal and not extract maximum prospect return I doubt that they'll sell him at the deadline as I suspect they'd be receiving pennies on the dollar compared to if they manage to get him back to resembling the more effective past version of himself. 

[John_Havok]

6 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Severino is probably not a good contract but that's a relative term. He's like 30% of oakland's payroll next year. He would be 10% of ours. The whole point of being a big market team is taking 'bad contracts' because we can afford to. The only contracts generally that are majority good deals are either minimum, arbitration or early extensions. That's it. 
 

Also, because we are a big market team we can use money as well as prospects to make deals. And there are less teams able to use money, so therefore it is a softer market. Severino should be cheaper therefore than someone like kellar, even after factoring difference in performance. 
 

Also, he does have some factors that make him attractive. If our stuff model is similar to the public ones, then he does have pretty good stuff. 108 stuff+. 104 fastball, 95 sinker, 94 cutter, 92 change and a 131 slider that he barely throws. He's also barely lost any velo. 
 

Its not hard to look at that and see potential. And it should be cheap. 

 

 

Target him in the offseason, not now. 

[max silver]

6 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Severino is probably not a good contract but that's a relative term. He's like 30% of oakland's payroll next year. He would be 10% of ours. The whole point of being a big market team is taking 'bad contracts' because we can afford to. The only contracts generally that are majority good deals are either minimum, arbitration or early extensions. That's it. 
 

Also, because we are a big market team we can use money as well as prospects to make deals. And there are less teams able to use money, so therefore it is a softer market. Severino should be cheaper therefore than someone like kellar, even after factoring difference in performance. 
 

Also, he does have some factors that make him attractive. If our stuff model is similar to the public ones, then he does have pretty good stuff. 108 stuff+. 104 fastball, 95 sinker, 94 cutter, 92 change and a 131 slider that he barely throws. He's also barely lost any velo. 
 

Its not hard to look at that and see potential. And it should be cheap. 

 

 

Just because the Blue Jays can take on bad contracts doesn't make a good case that they should be doing so.

Severino may be cheap in terms of prospect capital due to his onerous salary, but he's earning number 3 starter money and largely producing value closer to that of a number 4/5. I don't think the Blue Jays need to do the Athletics a massive favor in taking this contract off of their hands.

[Laika]

lmao please stop talking about Severino 

[jaysthebest]

Lol Severino is 3-10 with 5.10 ERA. This team doesn't need anymore terrible starter.

[jmomcc]

27 minutes ago, max silver said:

Just because the Blue Jays can take on bad contracts doesn't make a good case that they should be doing so.

Severino may be cheap in terms of prospect capital due to his onerous salary, but he's earning number 3 starter money and largely producing value closer to that of a number 4/5. I don't think the Blue Jays need to do the Athletics a massive favor in taking this contract off of their hands.

Most free agents with term or late extensions are bad contracts. All big market teams have bad contracts. That's the point. Baseball is set up so that by the time you can spend money freely on players it isn't good value. 
 

If you think that's its a favour to take that contract then charge them. Get prospects back. Money is literally worth less to us than it is to them. 

[jmomcc]

18 minutes ago, Laika said:

lmao please stop talking about Severino 

He has had a better year than Alcantara. 

[Spanky__99]

Severino is 4th and 40 man. 

Alcantara's recently removed from major surgery, his slow start is/was expected, I'd take Sandy all day over Severino, Yet the underlying numbers say different, Sandy > Severino. Everyone knows this though. He can be real good.

I'd rather a Keller and Bednar coup to land them.

[max silver]

1 hour ago, jmomcc said:

He has had a better year than Alcantara. 

It's sort of a pick your poison scenario as each of them have endured painful seasons. Both of these guys are reclamation projects at this point. Alcantara has a far more reasonable contract and more realistic upside to offer to whatever team helps to get him turned around. 

[Jonn]

Severino doesn't miss bats at all anymore. Even if the A's ate money. No thank you.

[metafour]

5 hours ago, sliderguy35 said:

the start of sandy's season was legitimately bad, but he's been a mid 3's FIP guy for nearly 2 months now (exactly the same as yamamoto since june 1st) & his awful strand rate is kinda masking how much better he's pitched since then. he's still not pitching to his 2022 standard, but the argument that he's a write-off for this year & you're buying for next year feels off base. 

His FIP is low because his HR/9 has dropped a lot over the past two months, and he generally doesn't walk a lot of guys. But he is still getting hit hard (well above the MLB average rate) and he is still getting barreled hard, so the huge drop in HR/9 may have a lot of luck involved in it. The main thing is that he still isn't striking anyone out, and he is still getting hit hard - hence why he has outings where he gets shelled.

I don't like defaulting to FIP and ignoring balls in play for guys who are giving up runs because they are simply getting hit hard. Those results aren't flukey.

[jmomcc]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

It's sort of a pick your poison scenario as each of them have endured painful seasons. Both of these guys are reclamation projects at this point. Alcantara has a far more reasonable contract and more realistic upside to offer to whatever team helps to get him turned around. 

I'd agree with that generally but if i'm miami i'm not accepting a lowball offer. I'll take my chances on him getting back to himself and then get ace rental prices next deadline. Or maybe make the playoffs lol. They have carbera, alcantara and perez. Try to win! 
 

I also have no idea why they are even considering trading cabrera. That is mental. 
 

 

[John_Havok]

Naylor trade return for the Diamondbacks: 2 prospects rated as 45s (by MLB.com)... LHP Brandyn Garcia and RHP Ashton Izzi 

Fangraphs rates both guys as 40+

Izzi is 21 at High A and not doing overly well... Garcia is 25, spent most of the season at AA, got 1 start in AAA and threw 2 innings for the Mariners and got his tits lit.

[Grant77]

On 7/22/2025 at 8:01 AM, hanton said:

Big time sellers market right now. 

Dodgers entering desparate mode for high leverage arms, Scott going for an MRI and Yates is sucking. 

 

You would think, but Seattle just got one of the top bats available for the equivalent of Jake Bloss and a lottery ticket. That's a far lighter return than anyone would have expected. Hopefully it's a sign of things to come.

[hanton]

Just now, Grant77 said:

You would think, but Seattle just got one of the top bats available for the equivalent of Jake Bloss and a lottery ticket. That's a far lighter return than anyone would have expected. Hopefully it's a sign of things to come.

 I was referring more to arms but yea I just saw the deal, strange; 

[Grant77]

23 minutes ago, hanton said:

 I was referring more to arms but yea I just saw the deal, strange; 

I know it isn't our biggest need, but I'm going after a bat for that price. A guy like Harrison Bader would be a nice bench piece.

[Laika]

It's a solid return for Naylor. Garcia might be a reliever but his stuff is wicked and they control him forever. I was reading that the other guy is a 2022 high school pick whose stuff jumped a lot this year. 

Realistically Naylor gives Seattle about 0.8 WAR and then walks. 

Not an amazing return though. Not sure why Arizona jumped at it.