2025 Trade Deadline

[jmomcc]

24 minutes ago, Laika said:

If Ross wants to get tricky and try to turn a mid SP into an Ace, the only candidate is Gausman. 

He is only owed $22M in 2026. He is the only Jays SP with a whiff rate that could play somewhere in a playoff rotation. 

Something like the Rangers wanting to get out of the $100M left to DeGrom, but they want to backfill the rotation for 2026, so they take Gausman back. Plus prospects duh. 

If that represents the Rangers selling as well this season, maybe they could throw in Milner as well. He could be useful as long relief. 

I would canvas pretty hard on Berrios first but this isn't crazy even if losing Gausman would hurt. 
 

The most gettable guy with ace (or more likely fringe 2) 'stuff' but not production is Severino. He also is someone oakland might be willing to move. He also has the backstop that his slider is so good that he could really play in the pen. Its also really hard to tell why he is worse now. There could be a pitch mix tweak that unlocks him. 
 

If we are willing to add his contract to all our existing pitching money and be really expensive next year he might be the easiest upgrade without having to get tricky.  

[max silver]

9 hours ago, jmomcc said:

I'd guess this is unpopular.  And as a preamble, i'd say he is a valuable pitcher right now due to his health and inning eating in the regular season. The regular season part is important. 

But, the trade i would make at the deadline is trading Berrios. He is under the hood declining. By pretty much any underlying stat he is our fourth best pitcher right now, and that is with me assuming that Lauer is over performing. And if i was the gm i'd take probably the last chance off that contract at the deadline. And i'd also want to take it out of the manager's hands whether to start him in a playoff game. 

 

 

All his fastballs are down about a tick this year. He has the 5th lowest xFIP, the 5th lowest xERA, and 5th lowest Sierra. Among starters. 

 

He has the worst stuff+ (worse than bowden francis) as basically all his pitches are below average. And a 94 pitching+. 

 

This is simply not a guy you want to take the ball in a playoff game and honestly if his velo takes another tick down he could be a problem in the rotation next year. He also has 66m left after this year. I don't want to pay $66m to a guy who rationally shouldn't start a playoff game. 

 

He also has a great ERA and years of proof that he can stay healthy. Contending teams will want pitching at the deadline and its possible we could get off this contract. 

 

For example, the Angels always need pitching. They are fighting for the playoffs and are willing to run an above average payroll. We could try Berrios for detmers plus other stuff. They would get a starter. We'd get a leverage reliever. 

 

Then we can trade prospects for someone who can start a playoff game (expensive) and a back end starter (cheaper). 

 

I'd suggest Severino for the first one as he fits into Berrios' money, and he has a truly elite slider, so if he has bad form, he can fit in in leverage in the bullpen come playoffs. The As will also probably want off that contract. 

 

Then we could run a rotation of Gausman, Scherzer, Severino, Bassitt, Lauer/back end starter. 

 

I don't think this is the kind of move we do, and its possible every other team looks at him and just wants nothing to do with that contract, but i would attempt this at least. 

 

 

None of this exactly screams that Berrios is the type of pitcher that other teams would be lining up to acquire. 

[jmomcc]

13 minutes ago, max silver said:

None of this exactly screams that Berrios is the type of pitcher that other teams would be lining up to acquire. 

Yea that's why the best return i can imagine is detmers and that's probably stretching it. But the deadline is where teams want pitching. 

[max silver]

6 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Yea that's why the best return i can imagine is detmers and that's probably stretching it. But the deadline is where teams want pitching. 

I think Detmers is a stud in relief and could potentially be converted back to starting as a bit of a longer term project. I suspect that Atkins would need to eat a bunch of salary and/or attach added prospect capital in a deal such as this as Berrios is likely viewed as a negative asset at this point and Detmers has a pile of remaining control.

[jmomcc]

8 minutes ago, max silver said:

I think Detmers is a stud in relief and could potentially be converted back to starting as a bit of a longer term project. I suspect that Atkins would need to eat a bunch of salary and/or attach added prospect capital in a deal such as this as Berrios is likely viewed as a negative asset at this point and Detmers has a pile of remaining control.

Yea, we would probably have to eat some salary. Or just trading him for mid prospects.

As i said earlier if it is a sparse deadline, you could move early (and pay more) for one of the best starters, and then hope that a team is desperate at the deadline. Grab prospects. Trade your own prospects for relievers .

[Ray]

Charlie Morton has really turned it around as of late. Last 14 starts, he has a 3.05 ERA and 3.28 FIP. His overall numbers are still really bad given how terrible he was in the beginning of the season, but he could be a nice piece that shouldn't cost too much on paper.

[John_Havok]

4 hours ago, jmomcc said:

I think he has just enough surface stats and there is probably so little pitching at the deadline, that you MIGHT be able to unload him. 
 

Maybe if we made a decisive move early for one of the few premium starters, reducing the market, and then ate some portion of his money to move him at the deadline? 
 

If he does have value, this is it. 

Value to whom though? Rebuilding teams arent taking him... teams already in the playoff picture arent gonna add him to not start a playoff game. 

He is what he is and is stick where he is. It will be a minor miracle if he opts out after next season.

[jmomcc]

2 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Value to whom though? Rebuilding teams arent taking him... teams already in the playoff picture arent gonna add him to not start a playoff game. 

He is what he is and is stick where he is. It will be a minor miracle if he opts out after next season.

I was thinking teams fighting for a playoff spot who need bulk innings. 

[John_Havok]

Just now, jmomcc said:

I was thinking teams fighting for a playoff spot who need bulk innings. 

They could find many other options that don't have his price tag. 

Not saying this to dismiss your idea, clearly it would be advantageous for the Jays to get out from under his salary and somehow improve, its just that its pretty much a pipe dream.

Moving Berrios now would be some wizardry on the level of the Vernon Wells trade.

[jmomcc]

2 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

They could find many other options that don't have his price tag. 

Not saying this to dismiss your idea, clearly it would be advantageous for the Jays to get out from under his salary and somehow improve, its just that its pretty much a pipe dream.

Moving Berrios now would be some wizardry on the level of the Vernon Wells trade.

My hope would be the angels. Not typically the smartest team but you are probably right. 

[John_Havok]

Just now, jmomcc said:

My hope would be the angels. Not typically the smartest team but you are probably right. 

Heh, wrong GM there now for that. 

[jmomcc]

1 minute ago, John_Havok said:

Heh, wrong GM there now for that. 

There aren't many opportunities like that out there any more. Maybe we could convince the rockies they need a vet mentor lol. 
 

At the same time as long as rogers are prepared to spend, he does eat innings so not too bad. 

[John_Havok]

6 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

There aren't many opportunities like that out there any more. Maybe we could convince the rockies they need a vet mentor lol. 
 

At the same time as long as rogers are prepared to spend, he does eat innings so not too bad. 

Thats just it, he can still be an effective pitcher, just... not a top of the rotation guy. Him opting out is best case scenario at this point for the Jays and thats a pretty slim chance

[jmomcc]

How about this for the guts of an idea.. 

Trade for 

- Kebryan Hayes 

- Caleb Ferguson 

from the pirates 

Ferguson has three good fastballs, led by a great sinker. Gets a ton of ground balls. Has got lucky somewhat this year HR wise. He had a slider last year graded as good, which he has not thrown at all this year. Seems to add/drop pitches a good bit so should be coachable. Middle relief with potential for more. He struck out way more people last year which seems to be related to losing the slider? Even without the below i'd be interested in him on his own. 
 

Hayes under the hood stats run ahead of his real ones pretty much constantly. Seems to have nagging back problems. Is a really good third baseman though. Could we unlock something in his swing? Could we also get him to play second? 

The key question for me is if hayes is bad money for the pirates. It won't be by WAR, but he does represent about 10% of their payroll. 

Overall, this might be cheaper than you'd think and also maybe a way to roll it all up with bednar as well. 
 

 

[Laika]

I like the Ferguson idea. Not sure why his K rate is down so much but Stuff+ likes everything he throws enough. Plus four seamer and sinker. I wonder if he considers the "cutter" as more of a hard bullet slider. 

I don't understand what Hayes would do for Toronto. He seems like a downgrade for the team no matter how they add him to the fold. Ernie is already an elite defender and when any OF come back it's probably Barger and Ernie at 3B and 2B most nights. Hayes' stick has been putrid for two years now.

[jmomcc]

55 minutes ago, Laika said:

I like the Ferguson idea. Not sure why his K rate is down so much but Stuff+ likes everything he throws enough. Plus four seamer and sinker. I wonder if he considers the "cutter" as more of a hard bullet slider. 

I don't understand what Hayes would do for Toronto. He seems like a downgrade for the team no matter how they add him to the fold. Ernie is already an elite defender and when any OF come back it's probably Barger and Ernie at 3B and 2B most nights. Hayes' stick has been putrid for two years now.

I'd agree it's pretty tenuous for this year especially. Our dev guys would have to look at him and think there are things he can change. 

But i will make a case for next year especially. 

Firstly, he's a good fit for how we play. By most metrics he's the best 3B in baseball this year. We value defense. He has a below average strikeout rate. Not a great barrell rate but better than say clement. And a 110 max EV. He also has a pretty good z contact rate. If you could get him to 100 wrc+ he's a valuable player. 

If Bo goes, you could have an infield of vlad, clement, gimenez, hayes which should be the best infield defense in baseball. Outfield of Santander, Varsho, Springer. Barger would get a lot of time as two outfielders and vlad would be DHing regularly. I'd also try to get hayes to play second sometimes to get some platoon matchups and barger at third. 

Finally, he costs a similar amount to straw annually so he is cheap. 
 

 

[max silver]

55 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

I'd agree it's pretty tenuous for this year especially. Our dev guys would have to look at him and think there are things he can change. 

But i will make a case for next year especially. 

Firstly, he's a good fit for how we play. By most metrics he's the best 3B in baseball this year. We value defense. He has a below average strikeout rate. Not a great barrell rate but better than say clement. And a 110 max EV. He also has a pretty good z contact rate. If you could get him to 100 wrc+ he's a valuable player. 

If Bo goes, you could have an infield of vlad, clement, gimenez, hayes which should be the best infield defense in baseball. Outfield of Santander, Varsho, Springer. Barger would get a lot of time as two outfielders and vlad would be DHing regularly. I'd also try to get hayes to play second sometimes to get some platoon matchups and barger at third. 

Finally, he costs a similar amount to straw annually so he is cheap. 
 

 

I just have a hard time seeing a lot of value in acquiring Hayes as the team already has a tremendous third base situation with a Clement/Barger platoon, and each player is very inexpensive at this point as well. Straw has been somewhat of a pleasant surprise this season, but the bat has largely trended back to where it was expected to be and having several largely glove only players earning real money would be a poor use of available financial resources. Perhaps Hayes could be a throw in to lessen the prospect cost for other Pirates players acquired through trade as Atkins did mention he could flex a little financial muscle, but I have a bit of a hard time seeing how Hayes makes the Blue Jays a better squad.

[jmomcc]

5 minutes ago, max silver said:

I just have a hard time seeing a lot of value in acquiring Hayes as the team already has a tremendous third base situation with a Clement/Barger platoon, and each player is very inexpensive at this point as well. Straw has been somewhat of a pleasant surprise this season, but the bat has largely trended back to where it was expected to be and having several largely glove only players earning real money would be a poor use of available financial resources. Perhaps Hayes could be a throw in to lessen the prospect cost for other Pirates players acquired through trade as Atkins did mention he could flex a little financial muscle, but I have a bit of a hard time seeing how Hayes makes the Blue Jays a better squad.

To me its mostly the defense. He was a 3 WAR player on a 125 games with league average offense. 
 

It also kind of fits the front office MO a bit. Giminez is a great defender who they think they can improve with the bat. Ditto for straw. Its a type they look for. And with bichette gone, there will be enough time available. If that happens .

[John_Havok]

16 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

To me its mostly the defense. He was a 3 WAR player on a 125 games with league average offense. 
 

It also kind of fits the front office MO a bit. Giminez is a great defender who they think they can improve with the bat. Ditto for straw. Its a type they look for. And with bichette gone, there will be enough time available. If that happens .

For me, the Hayes acquisition would be more of an offseason thing after Bo leaves, he really doesnt move the needle in 2025.. ..  at the trade deadline their primary focus should  be upgrading the team for a post-season run.

I like where your head is at though and have enjoyed seeing your trade thoughts. 

[glory]

If the Jays are adding a 3B then it should be Suarez. Would be a nightmare for John Schneider as he'd have no place to start Clement against RHP when everyone is healthy, but home runs win in the post season, and Santander may or may not be back and/or good again this season. If you run out a lineup with Springer-Barger-Vlad-Suarez-Kirk-Bo-Varsho-Tony (or Lukes if Tony is hurt) in whatever order you want, then that's pretty deep 1 through 8, with Gimenez/Clement as a strong platoon at 2B. 

Otherwise I think the team is fine with Barger at 3B now that we know he can play there reasonably well. 

 

[jmomcc]

Just now, John_Havok said:

For me, the Hayes acquisition woukd be more of an offseason thingafter Bo leaves...  as opposed to the trade deadline when their primary focus is upgrading the team for a post-season run.

I like where your head is at though and have enjoyed seeing your trade thoughts. 

I was thinking that too but a part of me thinks teams will keep a guy like that in the offseason in the hopes he goes on a heater and they can deal at the deadline? Where as now its like let's just get rid of him and save money. 

He does way more fit next year than this year though. 

[jmomcc]

7 minutes ago, glory said:

If the Jays are adding a 3B then it should be Suarez. Would be a nightmare for John Schneider as he'd have no place to start Clement against RHP when everyone is healthy, but home runs win in the post season, and Santander may or may not be back and/or good again this season. If you run out a lineup with Springer-Barger-Vlad-Suarez-Kirk-Bo-Varsho-Tony (or Lukes if Tony is hurt) in whatever order you want, then that's pretty deep 1 through 8, with Gimenez/Clement as a strong platoon at 2B. 

Otherwise I think the team is fine with Barger at 3B now that we know he can play there reasonably well. 

 

What do you think on cost? Its hard to know on rental bats but i'd like this trade. 

[max silver]

35 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

I was thinking that too but a part of me thinks teams will keep a guy like that in the offseason in the hopes he goes on a heater and they can deal at the deadline? Where as now its like let's just get rid of him and save money. 

He does way more fit next year than this year though. 

I suspect that the Pirates front office would be at the point by now that they would be thrilled to get Hayes' contract off of the books at any point on the calendar. They've likely seen more than enough to suggest that they aren't capable of reliably extracting more offense from him which is a bit of a shame given the otherworldly defense he is able to offer. I just don't like him much as a Blue Jays target though given the lengthy contract he features, and I just think he's largely redundant given the pieces on the roster. I broke down his splits vs RHP over the combined 2024/2025 seasons up to this point and they are dreadful. He's produced a 52 wRC+ vs RHP in this period and if the bat didn't rebound to a large degree that's a player that's only useful in a platoon situation, and not enough so to justify the salary.

[max silver]

43 minutes ago, glory said:

If the Jays are adding a 3B then it should be Suarez. Would be a nightmare for John Schneider as he'd have no place to start Clement against RHP when everyone is healthy, but home runs win in the post season, and Santander may or may not be back and/or good again this season. If you run out a lineup with Springer-Barger-Vlad-Suarez-Kirk-Bo-Varsho-Tony (or Lukes if Tony is hurt) in whatever order you want, then that's pretty deep 1 through 8, with Gimenez/Clement as a strong platoon at 2B. 

Otherwise I think the team is fine with Barger at 3B now that we know he can play there reasonably well. 

 

Suarez would be cool but that would likely lead to a pretty lousy defensive alignment the bulk of the time. If you had all of Springer, Santander and Suarez in the lineup that would feature 2 subpar defenders at minimum in the lineup most days before even accounting for Bo at short stop. The Blue Jays pitching staff is largely middle of the pack this season, and reducing the quality of the defense would likely have a sizable effect on the overall run prevention of the team. Perhaps the team would largely be able to outhit this issue at times, but in the post season when the margins tend to be tighter a porous defense could be a major issue as the rotation largely survives on the defense turning balls in play into outs at an elevated rate. 

[John_Havok]

13 minutes ago, max silver said:

Suarez would be cool but that would likely lead to a pretty lousy defensive alignment the bulk of the time. If you had all of Springer, Santander and Suarez in the lineup that would feature 2 subpar defenders at minimum in the lineup most days before even accounting for Bo at short stop. The Blue Jays pitching staff is largely middle of the pack this season, and reducing the quality of the defense would likely have a sizable effect on the overall run prevention of the team. Perhaps the team would largely be able to outhit this issue at times, but in the post season when the margins tend to be tighter a porous defense could be a major issue as the rotation largely survives on the defense turning balls in play into outs at an elevated rate. 

That would be my concern with Suarez as well. There's no doubt he'd be a steady offensive presence, but his downside in defense and baserunning could be a real problem if Santander also comes back healthy, logjamming the DH spot.

He's absolutely worth it though if Santander is going to be out even longer than anticipated. Like, if a mid-September return for Taters is a thing, rolling the dice with Suarez majes way more sense. Mid-August...not so much.

 

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, jmomcc said:

I was thinking that too but a part of me thinks teams will keep a guy like that in the offseason in the hopes he goes on a heater and they can deal at the deadline? Where as now its like let's just get rid of him and save money. 

He does way more fit next year than this year though. 

I hear ya. Thing is, if the Jays were further down the standings and not looking at adding for 2026...he would be a worthy target. 

Pittsburgh always wants to dump salary because their owner is a cheap POS that is intent on ruining their franchise while pocketing 10s of millions in profits and seeing his team valuation climb every year. 

I'd be targeting Bednar from their roster right now. He fits very well in what the Jays want and has another season of control, and becomes a 3rd closer option.

[jmomcc]

12 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

I hear ya. Thing is, if the Jays were further down the standings and not looking at adding for 2026...he would be a worthy target. 

Pittsburgh always wants to dump salary because their owner is a cheap POS that is intent on ruining their franchise while pocketing 10s of millions in profits and seeing his team valuation climb every year. 

I'd be targeting Bednar from their roster right now. He fits very well in what the Jays want and has another season of control, and becomes a 3rd closer option.

If he is complete dead money for the pirates, maybe we could use that to bring the price down on bednar.  I don't love kellar but maybe him as well. 

[Sorrow]

If you’re trading with the pirates I imagine it’s for Keller and Bednar.

I think the place to be trading is with the DBacks. I’d be looking to trade for Suarez, allowing Clement to be the weak side of a 2B platoon and backup IF, Shelby Miller and Merrill Kelly. All rentals with a bad front office.

[John_Havok]

9 minutes ago, Sorrow said:

If you’re trading with the pirates I imagine it’s for Keller and Bednar.

I think the place to be trading is with the DBacks. I’d be looking to trade for Suarez, allowing Clement to be the weak side of a 2B platoon and backup IF, Shelby Miller and Merrill Kelly. All rentals with a bad front office.

Miller just got himself hurt with the dreaded forearm strain. I'd still kick the tires but I'd be exceptional careful.

[mphenhef]

On 7/14/2025 at 3:54 PM, John_Havok said:

Heh, wrong GM there now for that. 

Still the same owner though.