Article: Blue Jays 2025 Opening Day Projected Lineup: Version 1.0

[BB17]

9 minutes ago, Spanky99 said:

Projections in October we math'd it at 85 wins give or take an error bar of what 3? Vegas line moves by betting action. Just seeing the standing projections now for the first time, when did they update that?

 

I think a couple weeks ago. They said for AL east teams each team actually is a little bit better but because they all play in the same division an 84 win team on paper is projected for only 82 wins etc..

 

[Spanky99]

7 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Wow... why even play the games since we got projected wRC+ telling us we're good lol.  This offense is not good enough as currently constructed, plain and simple. 

With a near 300M payroll, im hoping for more than an average level offense at best.  Maybe up your standards in life...

 

2 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Relying on projections for a guy who barely has any MLB experience is hilarious.  Hope the kid can become good but no real contender should be banking on guys like him in the middle of their order. 

Instead their performance should be looked upon as surplus value as you have no clue what version of the kid shows up to Spring Training.  

My eyes are bleeding, as per usual with you. 

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, BB17 said:

I mean are the jays really actual contenders or even close?I don’t think many believe that. This is like an 82-85 win team that if they have things break right they can sniff 90 and get a wildcard spot. 
 

They are likely better off going into the season and finding if a couple of these young guys can become regulars than trading for a bat at this point. Doesn’t really make sense to trade from a weak farm to go all in with an average team. Spending money in FA is one thing but you don’t want to sabotage future years in the process.

I disagree with your first paragraph - if they get into the playoffs than they are contenders.  And a 90 win team is clearly a contender - the 2015 Jays won just 3 more.

But I completely agree with your second paragraph.

[BB17]

43 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I disagree with your first paragraph - if they get into the playoffs than they are contenders.  And a 90 win team is clearly a contender - the 2015 Jays won just 3 more.

But I completely agree with your second paragraph.

Im saying the Jays aren't a 90 win team though. They have a higher chance of missing the postseason than they do of making it right now, so I would say that is in theory not a contender? That 2015 team was like a 100 win team talent wise after the deadline and played to a pace around that after the trades, so I feel thats selling them short.

I don't even think this Jays team is better than that 2017 team coming into the season. 

[glory]

17 hours ago, Laika said:

They are very optimistic but it's easy to see why. 

People love to throw Jeff McNeil comps in every lefty 2B prospect with quiet tools but Will Wagner might literally be Jeff McNeil if WW can actually play 2B. 

Willy in the minors

.297

.402

.441

McNeil in the minors 

.312

.380

.444

 

As a 2B, assuming he’s average or better there, I think Wagner is fine. It’s the fact that he’s assumed to be the DH with a near 120 wRC+ projection that seems way too optimistic for me. Hopefully I’m wrong on that. Davidi mentioned that he’ll get looks at 3B this spring. Wagner looking like even an average defensive 3B would be a great outcome for the Jays as that would make the roster construction a lot better (Wagner/Clement platoon at 3B), but I have my doubts that he will look average there. Maybe the Jays view him as a more of a bat first utility player anyway, and will use him as such.

[Laika]

15 minutes ago, glory said:

As a 2B, assuming he’s average or better there, I think Wagner is fine. It’s the fact that he’s assumed to be the DH with a near 120 wRC+ projection that seems way too optimistic for me. Hopefully I’m wrong on that. Davidi mentioned that he’ll get looks at 3B this spring. Wagner looking like even an average defensive 3B would be a great outcome for the Jays as that would make the roster construction a lot better (Wagner/Clement platoon at 3B), but I have my doubts that he will look average there. Maybe the Jays view him as a more of a bat first utility player anyway, and will use him as such.

I remember reading that he does not have the arm for the left side of the infield. 

Perhaps he is a 2B/LF/1B/DH this year and then in 2026, assuming he sticks, he is the 2B when Gimenez slides over to SS. 

[Jays24]

9 hours ago, Spanky99 said:

 

My eyes are bleeding, as per usual with you. 

Coming from a guy who literally just comments but provides 0 insights from his end because that would require too much thinking.  Your stance on this team the past few years is what made most of our eyes bleed lol.  

[Vancouverite]

20 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

We're not getting another big bat.  Prepare yourself for that.

This team probably isn't going to score a lot of runs again this year.  We might crack the Top 10 if a number of things fall into place, but I wouldn't hold your breath.  

The promising thing for me is all the young bats we have.

There's a realistic chance a few breakout this year and make an impact.

Orelvis  Martinez - Scheinder mentioned yesterday than him, Ernie and Wagner will get a shot at 3rd base. Surprised no mention of Barger

Addison Barger

Leo Jimenez 

Joey Loperfido

Will Wagner

 

Those 5 guys I'm hopeful they take a big leap this year. 

Davis Schenider is also a wild card for a right bat vs LHP off rhe bench but... BIG wild card in my opinion.

If it clicks for them though a Schneider / Barger platoon could be good

[max silver]

12 hours ago, BB17 said:

I mean are the jays really actual contenders or even close?I don’t think many believe that. This is like an 82-85 win team that if they have things break right they can sniff 90 and get a wildcard spot. 
 

They are likely better off going into the season and finding if a couple of these young guys can become regulars than trading for a bat at this point. Doesn’t really make sense to trade from a weak farm to go all in with an average team. Spending money in FA is one thing but you don’t want to sabotage future years in the process.

I think you are underestimating how mediocre the American League is in general right now. It took all of 86 wins to qualify for a wild card spot last season, and I don't expect that to change dramatically this season.

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Jays24 said:

Coming from a guy who literally just comments but provides 0 insights from his end because that would require too much thinking.  Your stance on this team the past few years is what made most of our eyes bleed lol.  

Don't pretend you've been offering up some sort of succinct analysis vs a steady stream of whining.

[Laika]

1 hour ago, Jays24 said:

Coming from a guy who literally just comments but provides 0 insights from his end because that would require too much thinking.  Your stance on this team the past few years is what made most of our eyes bleed lol.  

His comment provided about the same level of insight as your two, in much fewer words. 

I know the childish back and forth between posters is ugly and unattractive but when you come in and essentially just say "I don't like projection systems" in way more words, people are going to roll their eyes at you. 

This message board has never had a ton of patience for people who are aggressively anti-sabermetric and I don't think that is going to all of a sudden change. 

[Jays24]

39 minutes ago, Laika said:

His comment provided about the same level of insight as your two, in much fewer words. 

I know the childish back and forth between posters is ugly and unattractive but when you come in and essentially just say "I don't like projection systems" in way more words, people are going to roll their eyes at you. 

This message board has never had a ton of patience for people who are aggressively anti-sabermetric and I don't think that is going to all of a sudden change. 

There's being anti sabermetrics and then there's blindly relying on them to base all your conclusions on.  This was a guy who said Kirk was a better baserunner than Moreno because a metric told him so.  

And literally all the back and forth begins with him starting the childish remarks, there's a thumbs down feature if you don't agree with someone.   There's many who have disagreed with vast majority who were backing the moves made by this front office the past few years but you don't see us name calling unprovoked.  

My comment here was simple, relying on Wagner's projections who has very little MLB experience is probably fools gold.  Any "whining" from my end are areas that I would like to team to improve so they can become a true contender, that's all.  

[Jays24]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

Don't pretend you've been offering up some sort of succinct analysis vs a steady stream of whining.

What you see as whining are major areas of concerns being raised as to why this team will not perform as we all want, just like the past few years where some of us have been proactively calling out. 

This is how you avoid providing hindsight analysis like most of you have been doing this offseason.  Many of us saw this franchise trending downwards and weren't ok with staying quiet lol.  

[Spanky99]

🦤🤡

[Jays24]

🍻🤡

[Spanky99]

12 hours ago, Jays24 said:

There's being anti sabermetrics and then there's blindly relying on them to base all your conclusions on.  This was a guy who said Kirk was a better baserunner than Moreno because a metric told him so.   

Nice hyperbole bud, I said Kirk's s***** baserunning was better than Moreno at the time. Newsflash; Moreno isn't a good baserunner, man. He's a terrible baserunner and has no power to be seen. This news is old hat.
 

I don't see what you think is funny?

[SuperFuzzBigMuff]

Maybe they'll be a 500 team this year.