The Blue Jays and the Qualifying Offer

The qualifying offer might not be long for this world. When MLB and the MLBPA agree on a new CBA, they could decide to scrap the qualifying offer system altogether. Yet, for at least one more year, we still have to think about the QO and how it could impact the upcoming free agent class.

As a quick refresher, the qualifying offer reflects the average salary of the league's 125 highest-paid players. This year, that number is reportedly $23.15 million. Under the QO system, teams can offer a one-year, $23.15 million contract to any player who becomes a free agent, provided that (a) the player spent the entire preceding season in that team's organization and (b) the player has not received the qualifying offer before. Teams have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to issue qualifying offers, and players will have until a set date in November to accept or reject the deal. If a player rejects his qualifying offer and signs with a new team, his former club will receive a compensation pick in the next draft. Meanwhile, any team that signs a free agent who rejected the QO will face a penalty in the upcoming draft (and possibly a forfeiture of international bonus pool space as well).

The Blue Jays are unlikely to issue any qualifying offers this winter. Six months ago, Daulton Varsho and Shane Bieber both seemed like strong candidates. However, Varsho struggled for four months before Toronto traded him, making the point moot. Bieber started and finished the season on the injured list. He would have had to be amazing in the 11 starts he managed to make to warrant a QO. He wasn't. 

The good news is Toronto's front office won't have to waste any time debating QO candidates over the next few weeks. The bad news is they can't count on any compensation picks to soften the blow of the penalties they'll face for signing a free agent who rejected a QO elsewhere. 

As competitive balance tax payors, the Jays would sacrifice their second- and fifth-highest selections in next year's draft, as well as $1 million in international bonus pool space, by signing a QO free agent. That's the price they paid last year when they signed Dylan Cease. Well, except they only actually lost one draft pick. The other pick they technically lost was their compensation pick for Bo Bichette. Bichette rejected a qualifying offer, so when he signed with the Mets, the Blue Jays gained a pick between the fourth and fifth rounds. That would have been the Jays' fifth-highest selection, so it was one of the picks they "lost" for signing Cease. Otherwise, they would have forfeited pick No. 164, which came with $421,300 in bonus pool space, and which they used to draft right-hander Nolan Higgins.

This year's free agent class is weak. Moreover, several of the top free agents will be ineligible for the qualifying offer. Some were traded mid-season, like Tarik Skubal. Others have already received it, like Michael King. There are also the NPB stars to consider.

Even so, there is a pretty good chance the Jays will sign another QO free agent this winter. They have signed a player who rejected the QO in three of the last four offseasons. This year, Ross Atkins should be as motivated as ever, and he will have plenty of payroll to work with. The Jays have already been linked to Seiya Suzuki, who is a lock to receive the qualifying offer from the Cubs.

With that said, the odds of Toronto signing multiple QO free agents are much lower. That's probably for the best. The penalty for signing more than one player who rejected the QO would be the Jays' second-, third-, fifth-, and sixth-highest draft picks, as well as $1 million from their international bonus pool. That would make director of amateur scouting Marc Tramuta's job a whole lot harder next season. 

Finally, I should note that all of this presumes the QO free agents in question sign before the CBA expires, or that the new CBA doesn't significantly change the QO system. The qualifying offer has survived several CBAs since it was implemented in 2012. Yet, it's not popular with the players' union because it limits star players' earning power. If the new CBA does indeed do away with the qualifying offer, there is a good chance that players who signed before the inevitable lockout will still be tied to draft pick penalties/compensation, while players who waited to sign will not. That's what happened during the 2011-12 offseason, when the league changed the free agent compensation system. The changes were not retroactive, so players who signed before they came into effect were still bound to the old rules.

Are you optimistic about the Blue Jays right now?

Are you optimistic about the Blue Jays right now?

• Are you optimistic about the Blue Jays right now? Required
  

  
• Save

See All Blue Jays Polls >