Article: Blue Jays 2025 Opening Day Projected Lineup: Version 1.0

[Mike LeSage]

The Blue Jays are welcoming some new faces to Toronto this season. What do we think their lineup will look like for game one of 162?

Before we get rolling, I’m assuming good health and an unsurprising spring training for the purposes of this exercise. Taking the assumption train one stop further, the Jays open the season against the Baltimore Orioles, and based on their depth charts they’ll have a righty on the mound (probably Zach Eflin), so we’ll be looking at the Jays facing RHP.

Lineup and Batting Order

1. George Springer - RF (R): Springer lost his leadoff spot for a 44-game stretch from May to July last season, but he spent the majority of his time as #1 on the call sheet. He may have a shorter leash this year, but he’ll be there to start and he’ll keep it as long as he produces.

2. Bo Bichette - SS (R): 2024 saw Bichette bounce around the order more than we were used to seeing. When healthy in previous seasons, Bichette has had more of a lock on the two-spot in the order. With the cleanup spot more solidified, expect to see Bo regularly hitting second.

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 1B (R): Similarly, Guerrero Jr. has been a mainstay at #3. He's moved around some, but has batted third more than anywhere else in the order the last few seasons.

4. Anthony Santander - LF (S): The Blue Jays’ biggest off-season signing has come to Toronto to do two things: crush baseballs and chew gum, and he's all out of gum. I expect Santander to hit cleanup each day that he's in the lineup. He'll get some starts in RF for sure, and rotate through the DH spot, but on day one, he'll be in left.

5. Will Wagner - DH (L): Wagner can hit. There are questions around his power profile and what position he might settle into with the current Jays lineup – how many starts will Vladdy see at third base? – but he makes contact and puts the ball in play. Expect to see him get most opportunities against righties.

6. Alejandro Kirk - C (R): The days of a three-headed catching platoon are well in the rearview now. The spot is Kirk's for as many games as he can handle it. How does 120 sound? If the pop from 2022 can find a way back, he might move up a spot, but he’ll most likely be shuffling deck chairs with the bottom of the order.

7. Andrés Giménez - 2B (L): Another player we'd love to see regain his 2022 form is Giménez. He's here for the glove, but if even a little of that bat can come back around, he'll be great value.

8. Ernie Clement - 3B (R): Maybe I'm getting a little too cute with the lefty/righty balance at the bottom of the order. Clement had games at all nine spots in the order last season with the bulk at six, seven, and eight. If he can get the K/BB ratio to swing towards a little more selectively at the plate he could move up a spot or two. He can also cover shortstop in a pinch if Bo needs a maintenance day.

9. Joey Loperfido - CF (L): Dalton Varsho is expected to miss the start of the season after ending last year with shoulder surgery (stay tuned for timeline updates). Loperfido will get an opportunity to hold on to the spot until Varsho’s return.

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The Bench

Tyler Heineman - C (S): Kirk will need the occasional day off and there isn't another catcher on the current 40-man roster. Heineman has been serviceable, if unremarkable, and has caught most of the Jays current rotation in his time(s) with Toronto.

Addison Barger - 3B/LF/RF (L): In addition to the three positions he played last season with the Jays, he also spent some time at shortstop in Buffalo. Expect Barger and Clement to share the bulk of starts at third base and race to see who gets the hot hand first.

Steward Berroa - OF (S): Used primarily as a pinch runner last year, Berroa can fill that role again while providing backup coverage in center until Varsho returns.

Davis Schneider - 2B/LF (R): To say that Babe struggled last season would be a huge understatement. He put up a ‘perfect’ 0.0 bWAR over almost 400 ABs. His splits don’t suggest a platoon would help and the positions he covers have other applicants ready to take the spot. He’s undeniably entering the spring on shaky ground and could easily spend the year in Buffalo, but the 1.8 bWAR he put up in just 35 games in 2023 is recent enough memory that he might get more time to find that form.

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Starting Rotation

1. José Berríos (RHP): He’s been the Opening Day starter two of the last three seasons and I expect he’ll get that honor again this year. Berríos has also thrown over 170 innings each of the last 3 seasons and he’ll be counted on to continue that workhorse status.

2. Kevin Gausman (RHP): Even after a down 2024, Gausman is projected to have the highest positive impact from the rotation. He challenged for the Cy Young award in 2023 and if he can return to that form, he’ll be the ace the team craves.

3. Chris Bassitt (RHP): Bassitt will be 36 years old on Opening Day and is in the last year of his contract. With the improved bullpen he shouldn’t be needed to pitch deep into games too often.

4. Max Scherzer (RHP): The newly acquired Scherzer will look to close out his Hall of Fame career with an impactful season in Toronto. Hopefully his playoff experience will be something the Jays need this year.

5. Bowden Francis (RHP): After his historic August Francis will get every opportunity to lock up a regular rotation spot.

6. Yariel Rodríguez (RHP): Bowden Francis is the only Jays starter under 30 and last season was the first time he pitched more than 40 innings in the majors. Even if everyone has a healthy year (don’t laugh, it could happen!) Rodríguez is likely to get some starts as the other pitchers require a maintenance day or even a couple weeks of a six-man rotation when the schedule gets particularly cramped. Until then, he’ll be in the long relief role from the ‘pen.

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Bullpen

Jeff Hoffman (RHP): GM Ross Atkins has said that Hoffman “will get the opportunity to close games”, but there isn’t a full indication yet that he will own the ninth inning. Expect him to get the most chances though.

Chad Green (RHP): Chad Green put up 17 saves for Toronto last season and will be counted on again to be a reliable arm out of the pen. Hoffman’s addition likely moves Green to the 8th.

Yimi García (RHP): Back with the Jays after a 10-game stint in Seattle following last season’s trade. Working off the theory that Hoffman is pushing everyone’s previous roles back an inning García is slated for the 7th and setup role

Erik Swanson (RHP): Swanson struggled last season (a common refrain for the bullpen) and spent some time in Buffalo. Expect a positive turnaround and improved results.

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[LA Transplant]

Except I think Miles Straw gets the start in CF, since they're paying him a lot more than Loperfido or Berroa.

[Brock Beauchamp]

52 minutes ago, LA Transplant said:

Except I think Miles Straw gets the start in CF, since they're paying him a lot more than Loperfido or Berroa.

Welcome to Jays Centre!

[Laika]

The temporary CF will be a wide open competition. Not sure it goes to Loperfido. I think backup CF on the bench is also wide open. 

Lukes - older, still has 1 option but at at 30 years old the organization might give him a "make or break" chance to man the position for a month. He actually has the best offensive projections of all competitors. 

Clase - the most prospect pedigree. one option year left. generally okay projections. switch hitter. sucked in AAA last year.

Loperfido - two options, so less urgency to get a look at him this year. struggled in his rookie season.

Straw - the best defensive option, with the worst offensive projections, but he's not on the 40 man so they have to punt somebody to put him on the team. 

Berroa - the dark horse. two options left. switch hitter. 

Realistically it will be a platoon. I kind of think they go with Lukes and someone else in a platoon. 

 

 

Also, I think your projected bench needs someone with actual SS chops. FGDC has Leo Jimenez on it. 

[Mike LeSage]

2 hours ago, LA Transplant said:

Except I think Miles Straw gets the start in CF, since they're paying him a lot more than Loperfido or Berroa.

Certainly an option! There was a lot of writing/erasing/rewriting as I thought about that spot. Straw not yet being on the 40-man was ultimately why I left him off here. We'll see what projections 2.0 brings...

[Mike LeSage]

25 minutes ago, Laika said:

The temporary CF will be a wide open competition. Not sure it goes to Loperfido. I think backup CF on the bench is also wide open. 

Lukes - older, still has 1 option but at at 30 years old the organization might give him a "make or break" chance to man the position for a month. He actually has the best offensive projections of all competitors. 

Clase - the most prospect pedigree. one option year left. generally okay projections. switch hitter. sucked in AAA last year.

Loperfido - two options, so less urgency to get a look at him this year. struggled in his rookie season.

Straw - the best defensive option, with the worst offensive projections, but he's not on the 40 man so they have to punt somebody to put him on the team. 

Berroa - the dark horse. two options left. switch hitter. 

Realistically it will be a platoon. I kind of think they go with Lukes and someone else in a platoon. 

 

 

Also, I think your projected bench needs someone with actual SS chops. FGDC has Leo Jimenez on it. 

Great points! I'm really curious to see how the OF is handled this season. The note around the options is valid.

Jimenez is the first call if Bo or Gimenez are going to miss time, but I think they're going to block him from playing time while healthy. He could easily occupy Schneider's bench spot though.

[Jays24]

That lineup just isn't good enough to compete, getting 1 more big bat is massively important. 

Also, what a waste of defensive talent it would be to keep Gimenez at 2B when you have him locked up for 6 years. 

[Brownie19]

37 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

That lineup just isn't good enough to compete, getting 1 more big bat is massively important. 

Also, what a waste of defensive talent it would be to keep Gimenez at 2B when you have him locked up for 6 years. 

We're not getting another big bat.  Prepare yourself for that.

This team probably isn't going to score a lot of runs again this year.  We might crack the Top 10 if a number of things fall into place, but I wouldn't hold your breath.  

[glory]

Am I the only one who thinks the Wagner 2025 projections are very optimistic? If he's a 2B then fine, but at DH, I'm not sure that's the way to go. Of course if they stick with internal options then they don't have many other options. Just take whoever rakes in ST between Wagner, Martinez, Barger, Roden, etc. 

[Brownie19]

33 minutes ago, glory said:

Am I the only one who thinks the Wagner 2025 projections are very optimistic? If he's a 2B then fine, but at DH, I'm not sure that's the way to go. Of course if they stick with internal options then they don't have many other options. Just take whoever rakes in ST between Wagner, Martinez, Barger, Roden, etc. 

I'm not sure there are many options left (via free agency) who project to be difference makers at DH.  I think we have as good of a chance to find someone who can hit at an above average clip (say >110 wRC+) internally between Wagner, Barger, Roden, Orelvis, etc.

And yes, his projection do seem optimistic.

 

[Laika]

1 hour ago, glory said:

Am I the only one who thinks the Wagner 2025 projections are very optimistic? If he's a 2B then fine, but at DH, I'm not sure that's the way to go. Of course if they stick with internal options then they don't have many other options. Just take whoever rakes in ST between Wagner, Martinez, Barger, Roden, etc. 

They are very optimistic but it's easy to see why. 

People love to throw Jeff McNeil comps in every lefty 2B prospect with quiet tools but Will Wagner might literally be Jeff McNeil if WW can actually play 2B. 

Willy in the minors

.297

.402

.441

McNeil in the minors 

.312

.380

.444

 

[Terminator]

I agree that acquiring a "big bat" is needed, but the big bat needs to be pretty damn good to make it worth our while.

• Taters in LF and Wagner at DH who projects for a 118 wRC+.
• Taters at DH and use one of these guys for LF: Roden projects for a 109 wRC+, Lukes 104, Barger 103. 
• All of the above mentioned names bat left-handed so Schneider (104 projection) makes for a decent platoon partner.

JD Martinez (101 projection) probably isn't a big enough bat. I'm not even sure that Luis Robert (104 projection) is worth it.

 

[Stangstag]

3 hours ago, Jays24 said:

That lineup just isn't good enough to compete, getting 1 more big bat is massively important. 

Also, what a waste of defensive talent it would be to keep Gimenez at 2B when you have him locked up for 6 years. 

Every hitter in the lineup is projected for 100 wRC+ or higher except Clement, with Vlad, Santander and Bo projected well above that.

[Stangstag]

5 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I agree that acquiring a "big bat" is needed, but the big bat needs to be pretty damn good to make it worth our while.

• Taters in LF and Wagner at DH who projects for a 118 wRC+.
• Taters at DH and use one of these guys for LF: Roden projects for a 109 wRC+, Lukes 104, Barger 103. 
• All of the above mentioned names bat left-handed so Schneider (104 projection) makes for a decent platoon partner.

JD Martinez (101 projection) probably isn't a big enough bat. I'm not even sure that Luis Robert (104 projection) is worth it.

 

I don't think its needed, but i would feel a lot better if they could boost the offense just a bit more

[Brownie19]

1 minute ago, Stangstag said:

I don't think its needed, but i would feel a lot better if they could boost the offense just a bit more

I expect them to go into the season with what we have.  They may just need to be prepared to pull off a trade if the grouping of Wagner, Orelvis, Barger, Roden aren't producing early on.  Or if we get hit by the injury bug.

[Terminator]

1 minute ago, Stangstag said:

I don't think its needed, but i would feel a lot better if they could boost the offense just a bit more

I hear ya. We project for something like 82-86 wins so we need to improve somewhere. But I think rolling with close to what we've got makes sense. If we are in it at the deadline we can make a deal then.

[Jays24]

5 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Every hitter in the lineup is projected for 100 wRC+ or higher except Clement, with Vlad, Santander and Bo projected well above that.

Get your head out of your ass

Wow... why even play the games since we got projected wRC+ telling us we're good lol.  This offense is not good enough as currently constructed, plain and simple. 

With a near 300M payroll, im hoping for more than an average level offense at best.  Maybe up your standards in life...

[Terminator]

37 minutes ago, Laika said:

They are very optimistic but it's easy to see why. 

People love to throw Jeff McNeil comps in every lefty 2B prospect with quiet tools but Will Wagner might literally be Jeff McNeil if WW can actually play 2B. 

Willy in the minors

.297

.402

.441

McNeil in the minors 

.312

.380

.444

 

People are definitely sleeping on Wagner. In AAA last year, he had a 16.6% walk rate compared to a 10.4% K rate. That's kind of insane.

His batted ball data looks fairly strong as well. The lack of power seemingly comes from a low launch angle is all.

He should be a pretty good hitter in the mold of Frank Catalanatto though he can play more infield. 

[BatFlip]

8 minutes ago, Terminator said:

People are definitely sleeping on Wagner. In AAA last year, he had a 16.6% walk rate compared to a 10.4% K rate. That's kind of insane.

His batted ball data looks fairly strong as well. The lack of power seemingly comes from a low launch angle is all.

He should be a pretty good hitter in the mold of Frank Catalanatto though he can play more infield. 

Frank Catalanatto and Reed Johnson was my favorite outfield platoon of all time.  2006 was a great year to watch those two.

I agree that people are sleeping on Wagner, the kid can hit.

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Wow... why even play the games since we got projected wRC+ telling us we're good lol.  This offense is not good enough as currently constructed, plain and simple. 

With a near 300M payroll, im hoping for more than an average level offense at best.  Maybe up your standards in life...

Ugh

[max silver]

4 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Wow... why even play the games since we got projected wRC+ telling us we're good lol.  This offense is not good enough as currently constructed, plain and simple. 

With a near 300M payroll, im hoping for more than an average level offense at best.  Maybe up your standards in life...

The Blue Jays were a whopping 0.14 runs per game below the AL average last season. That's despite receiving essentially no contributions from Bo. They've added a legitimate middle of the order bat in Santander so with a little luck it should be an above average offensive group.

[BB17]

5 hours ago, Stangstag said:

Every hitter in the lineup is projected for 100 wRC+ or higher except Clement, with Vlad, Santander and Bo projected well above that.

I mean THE BAT has the Jays projected for only 5 hitters with a 100wRC+ (6 if you include Roden). Just because Steamer and Zips is high on some guys doesn't mean this lineup is good.

Wagner's are:

Steamer 118

Zips 115

THE BAT 97

OOPSY 93

I feel in general Steamer seems to be super high on rookies/young players.

[Jays24]

9 minutes ago, BB17 said:

I mean THE BAT has the Jays projected for only 5 hitters with a 100wRC+ (6 if you include Roden). Just because Steamer and Zips is high on some guys doesn't mean this lineup is good.

Wagner's are:

Steamer 118

Zips 115

THE BAT 97

OOPSY 93

I feel in general Steamer seems to be super high on rookies/young players.

Relying on projections for a guy who barely has any MLB experience is hilarious.  Hope the kid can become good but no real contender should be banking on guys like him in the middle of their order. 

Instead their performance should be looked upon as surplus value as you have no clue what version of the kid shows up to Spring Training.  

[BB17]

8 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Relying on projections for a guy who barely has any MLB experience is hilarious.  Hope the kid can become good but no real contender should be banking on guys like him in the middle of their order. 

Instead their performance should be looked upon as surplus value as you have no clue what version of the kid shows up to Spring Training.  

I mean are the jays really actual contenders or even close?I don’t think many believe that. This is like an 82-85 win team that if they have things break right they can sniff 90 and get a wildcard spot. 
 

They are likely better off going into the season and finding if a couple of these young guys can become regulars than trading for a bat at this point. Doesn’t really make sense to trade from a weak farm to go all in with an average team. Spending money in FA is one thing but you don’t want to sabotage future years in the process.

[Spanky99]

35 minutes ago, BB17 said:

I mean THE BAT has the Jays projected for only 5 hitters with a 100wRC+ (6 if you include Roden). Just because Steamer and Zips is high on some guys doesn't mean this lineup is good.

Wagner's are:

Steamer 118

Zips 115

THE BAT 97

OOPSY 93

I feel in general Steamer seems to be super high on rookies/young players.

It's true, young players that hit well in the minors get a boost to what their peers have done with similar numbers in the MLB. It's basically a crapshoot at this point.

[Jays24]

30 minutes ago, BB17 said:

I mean are the jays really actual contenders or even close?I don’t think many believe that. This is like an 82-85 win team that if they have things break right they can sniff 90 and get a wildcard spot. 
 

They are likely better off going into the season and finding if a couple of these young guys can become regulars than trading for a bat at this point. Doesn’t really make sense to trade from a weak farm to go all in with an average team. Spending money in FA is one thing but you don’t want to sabotage future years in the process.

Ya that's exactly my point... just highlighting a big reason why we're not contenders. 

Legit feel like we're one big bat away from that.  Hoping Shatkins can shock us with a trade none of us see coming.  

[Spanky99]

The Jays were a projected 85 win team coming into the offseason, how do you figure our Win total number is still that? lol... Birds...*smh*

[BB17]

13 minutes ago, Spanky99 said:

The Jays were a projected 85 win team coming into the offseason, how do you figure our Win total number is still that? lol... Birds...*smh*

When were they ever projected for 85 wins? Vegas has their win total at 78.5 and was at 76.5 when they first were released.

Fangraphs has them 82-80 in their projected standings.

[Spanky99]

11 minutes ago, BB17 said:

When were they ever projected for 85 wins? Vegas has their win total at 78.5 and was at 76.5 when they first were released.

Fangraphs has them 82-80 in their projected standings.

Projections in October we math'd it at 85 wins give or take an error bar of what 3? Vegas line moves by betting action. Just seeing the standing projections now for the first time, when did they update that?

 

[Spanky99]

Wow, our pitching projections are horrible, yikes.

I'd rather look at that through the lens of RA9.