Jays sign Anthony Santander

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, BB17 said:

People get way too caught up in ST. Every year there are guys rake in ST and stink in the regular season and vice versa. Santander has a track record of being a good hitter, 3 games in ST isn't going to change that lol.

It can even extend into the regular season.... remember when Belt look absolutely lost for a few weeks to start the year in 2023? Also took Vladdy a while to get going last year.

Alternatively, Varsho looked pretty good in ST and first few weeks of season before settling back into his old ways... same as Grichuk every year.

Honestly gotta wait til June to get a gauge on these guys. The season is LOOOONG

[jaysblue]

Yeah ST stats are meaningless. 

ST stats mean more for young guys trying to crack the MLB roster, or players competing for a certain position. 

If Anthony Santander goes 3 for 30 over ST, who cares. 

[max silver]

32 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Yeah ST stats are meaningless. 

ST stats mean more for young guys trying to crack the MLB roster, or players competing for a certain position. 

If Anthony Santander goes 3 for 30 over ST, who cares. 

Anthony Santander going 3 for 30 in the spring would be far from ideal given the likelihood that it bled into the regular season.

[Orgfiller]

8 minutes ago, max silver said:

Anthony Santander going 3 for 30 in the spring would be far from ideal given the likelihood that it bled into the regular season.

Unless the reason for him going 3 for 30 is injury, then it actually wouldn't really matter in the slightest if he performed poorly in ST. There's almost no correlation between ST stats and regular season performance. I think fangraphs has done several dives into which ST stats actually matter, and the only ones with any sort of mild predictive power that carry over are K, BB and SB rates. Everything else is pure randomness and given the irregularity of ABs and competition being faced it can almost be ignored entirely.

[Jonn]

Santander got delayed due to Visa issues. It’s not really shocking he’s starting slow. Still plenty of time for these guys to get at-bats and ready for the Season.

[Brownie19]

2-3 with 3 ribeyes today.  He's back baby!

[max silver]

36 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

Unless the reason for him going 3 for 30 is injury, then it actually wouldn't really matter in the slightest if he performed poorly in ST. There's almost no correlation between ST stats and regular season performance. I think fangraphs has done several dives into which ST stats actually matter, and the only ones with any sort of mild predictive power that carry over are K, BB and SB rates. Everything else is pure randomness and given the irregularity of ABs and competition being faced it can almost be ignored entirely.

I did a little reading on the subject, and it does appear that there are a few spring training statistics that carry some value. Prospects Live suggested that maximum exit velocity for hitters is useful and that pitch characteristics (pitch velocity, spin rate, break etc.) are useful for pitchers.

https://www.prospectslive.com/which-spring-training-stats-matter/#:~:text=Conclusion,you can't enjoy them.&text=Please check your inbox and click the confirmation link.,-Read Next

There is a study posted on the economist that argues that spring training stats do have utility despite their inherent noisiness. This appears to be the study that shows that walk and strikeout rates are useful, as is isolated power numbers. Unfortunately it's locked behind a paywall so I wasn't able to read through the entire study vs perusing a summary on ESPN.com.

https://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/77800/which-spring-training-stats-actually-matter

 

[G-Snarls]

16 hours ago, GNick92 said:

Not impressed what I seen so far. Another Kendrys Morales to me. 

Probably should have waited a day before deciding whether to post about this or not.....

Lmao

[Jimcanuck]

ST data is useful for gauging whether a player that played hurt and struggled the season before is fully healthy, or a pitcher returning from surgery is back to pre injury effectiveness.  I wouldn't read much else into it.

[BB17]

9 hours ago, Stangstag said:

It can even extend into the regular season.... remember when Belt look absolutely lost for a few weeks to start the year in 2023? Also took Vladdy a while to get going last year.

Alternatively, Varsho looked pretty good in ST and first few weeks of season before settling back into his old ways... same as Grichuk every year.

Honestly gotta wait til June to get a gauge on these guys. The season is LOOOONG

Yup exactly. And last year Turner looked like it turned back the clock in April only to fade the next couple of months..

Even Schneider had a really good April and May IIRC but was just anemic in the second half of the season.

Pitching I can buy into it a little bit more especially if there is meaningful velocity changes, not so much the results though. 

 

 

[John_Havok]

15 hours ago, max silver said:

I did a little reading on the subject, and it does appear that there are a few spring training statistics that carry some value. Prospects Live suggested that maximum exit velocity for hitters is useful and that pitch characteristics (pitch velocity, spin rate, break etc.) are useful for pitchers.

https://www.prospectslive.com/which-spring-training-stats-matter/#:~:text=Conclusion,you can't enjoy them.&text=Please check your inbox and click the confirmation link.,-Read Next

There is a study posted on the economist that argues that spring training stats do have utility despite their inherent noisiness. This appears to be the study that shows that walk and strikeout rates are useful, as is isolated power numbers. Unfortunately it's locked behind a paywall so I wasn't able to read through the entire study vs perusing a summary on ESPN.com.

https://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/77800/which-spring-training-stats-actually-matter

 

I think your overall point is that underlying data and metrics are what are more important, not result-oriented statistics. 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

I think your overall point is that underlying data and metrics are what are more important, not result-oriented statistics. 

That mentality shouldn't really change much when you head into the regular season...

[max silver]

3 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

That mentality shouldn't really change much when you head into the regular season...

I'll have to disagree pretty strongly with that assessment. I can get on board with utilizing underlying numbers to evaluate what *should* have happened on the field and the likelihood of success or failure on an individual basis, but the actual on the field results and associated statistics are the primary driver towards wins and losses.

[Brownie19]

On 3/4/2025 at 3:25 PM, max silver said:

I'll have to disagree pretty strongly with that assessment. I can get on board with utilizing underlying numbers to evaluate what *should* have happened on the field and the likelihood of success or failure on an individual basis, but the actual on the field results and associated statistics are the primary driver towards wins and losses.

My point is those underlying numbers are a better indication of future results and over the long run.  Those with strong underlying numbers, typically end up with strong actual results.  That applies in both spring training and the regular season.

Can someone have strong on the field results, with poor underlying numbers?  Yes, of course they can, but it's less common and is typically a sign those results aren't sustainable.