Mets Putting Together Package For Vladimir Guerrero Jr

[Dale]

Vladdy will get a minumum of $400 million no matter who he signs with. And probably closer to $500 for a long term contract. The Jays have made a show of chasing unavailable players, (ohtani and soto, let's face it, did you really believe either would come to Toronto with their dismal record???) now have to deal with the consequences of driving up those contracts. We have that all star that everybody (who can afford him now) wants. His name is Vladimir. Sign him and move on. We do not need to scour the league to find an excellent first baseman (who also fields third base very well thank you very much) and has a strong bat and a winning attitude on and off the field. Lets sign OUR allstar to a long term contract and get this wasted time talking about it out of the way and fix what we really do need. We need pitchers I believe. Lets find some. And they are probably going to come from our own farm system so lets get the scouts doing what the scouts should be doing.Not watching already established MLB players to see who we might get but watching minor leagues and, Yes, high schools and colleges and find those who can make it if mentored correctly.

[Eat My Shatkins]

It's amazing to me now that Vlad is one year from free agency more and more people are acting like he has been this amazing superstar the whole time and completely forget the three straight years of decline down to a 1.3 war player, the long stretches of terrible at bats and poor performance, and the bone headed costly mistakes.

 

Giving this man $450 million + might just be one of the worst mistakes made in franchise history. It's not the clear cut decision for long term success that certain people are making it out to be.

[Brownie19]

I saw this yesterday.  Not sure I'd seen a report that Vlad has declined 2 offers from the Jays and neither started with a 4.

That said, I don't share this guys concerns that they are "10's of millions of dollars apart with a month to go before the deadline".

If the Jays are at $395M and Vlad wants $450M - I don't think they're far apart at all with a month to go.  Of course the biggest question is - is he worth it and is this the right move.

[Laika]

19 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

It's amazing to me now that Vlad is one year from free agency more and more people are acting like he has been this amazing superstar the whole time and completely forget the three straight years of decline down to a 1.3 war player, the long stretches of terrible at bats and poor performance, and the bone headed costly mistakes.

 

Giving this man $450 million + might just be one of the worst mistakes made in franchise history. It's not the clear cut decision for long term success that certain people are making it out to be.

I will never forget Bad Vlad. Probably the most frustrating player in Jays history. 

[Brownie19]

3 minutes ago, Laika said:

I will never forget Bad Vlad. Probably the most frustrating player in Jays history. 

100%  I still loathe Vlad to this day because of it.  Whether it was mental issues, conditioning issues, immaturity, low IQ, bad advice or probably some combination of them all - he wandered through 2022 and 2023, severely underachieving when we needed him the most.

[L54]

I think it’s an overreaction to say signing Vlad to a 500M or whatever would be franchise crippling 

Vlad’s expected numbers have always been elite elite. He was just a launch angle adjustment away from becoming Yordan Alvarez. Then he did it in 2024 

He has been as durable as anybody despite the criticism of his body. His athleticism is actually underrated and he just posted the best sprint speed data of his career 

I might be talking myself into a 12/450 contract 

 

[jaysblue]

I think at the end of the day, best to move on from Vlad. You don't want him here for 10+ years. 

[Brownie19]

20 minutes ago, L54 said:

I think it’s an overreaction to say signing Vlad to a 500M or whatever would be franchise crippling 

Vlad’s expected numbers have always been elite elite. He was just a launch angle adjustment away from becoming Yordan Alvarez. Then he did it in 2024 

He has been as durable as anybody despite the criticism of his body. His athleticism is actually underrated and he just posted the best sprint speed data of his career 

I might be talking myself into a 12/450 contract 

 

I don't disagree that he's been durable and is more athletic than we give him credit for (given all the fat jokes), but unfortunately, that athletic ability doesn't show up on either the base paths or on defense.  The only advantage we get from his athletic ability is at the plate - which may allow him to remain elite at the plate for a longer duration than some unathletic stiff (I guess).

The counter argument to "Vlad’s expected numbers have always been elite elite. He was just a launch angle adjustment away from becoming Yordan Alvarez. Then he did it in 2024" is simply that he also did it in 2021 - and then forgot how to do it again for 2+ years.  I think we all hope there's a logical reasons behind that (sounds like mental issues), but that track record is still somewhat of a concern.

[L54]

Just now, Brownie19 said:

I don't disagree that he's been durable and is more athletic than we give him credit for (given all the fat jokes), but unfortunately, that athletic ability doesn't show up on either the base paths or on defense.  The only advantage we get from his athletic ability is at the plate - which may allow him to remain elite at the plate for a longer duration than some unathletic stiff (I guess).

Personally I only care about him putting up 160 weighted runs created plus and 5 WAR 

[Brownie19]

3 minutes ago, L54 said:

Personally I only care about him putting up 160 weighted runs created plus and 5 WAR 

That's good - because that's all you're going to get from him.  And that's perfectly fine - that's all I'd ever expect to, having watched him for 5+ years now.

But that also means his underrated athletic ability is somewhat irrelevant, which was all I was trying to say.  It seems like Vlad's athletic ability should allow him to run the bases and play defense like a young Pujols did (or like Freeman does) - which added so much additional value.  But it doesn't - which is super disappointing.

[L54]

3 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

That's good - because that's all you're going to get from him.  And that's perfectly fine - that's all I'd ever expect to, having watched him for 5+ years now.

But that also means his underrated athletic ability is somewhat irrelevant, which was all I was trying to say.  It seems like Vlad's athletic ability should allow him to run the bases and play defense like a young Pujols did (or like Freeman does) - which added so much additional value.  But it doesn't - which is super disappointing.

Shoot id hate it if all he did was put up 160 wRC+ and 5 WAR seasons 

It would be way better to watch him stretch singles into doubles and throw out runners at third on the wheel play 

[Brownie19]

Just now, L54 said:

Shoot id hate it if all he did was put up 160 wRC+ and 5 WAR seasons 

It would be way better to watch him stretch singles into doubles and throw out runners at third on the wheel play 

I don't know what you're getting at - seems you have your shields up?  You suggested his athleticism is underrated.  I agreed, but said it's unfortunate it doesn't show up on the base paths or the field.

Those 5 WAR seasons could be 7-8 WAR seasons if he could effectively use his solid speed on the bases and could sure up his defense at 1st.

[L54]

Just now, Brownie19 said:

I don't know what you're getting at - seems you have your shields up?  You suggested his athleticism is underrated.  I agreed, but said it's unfortunate it doesn't show up on the base paths or the field.

Those 5 WAR seasons could be 7-8 WAR seasons if he could effectively use his solid speed on the bases and could sure up his defense at 1st.

Do you know how many 7-8 WAR seasons have come from 1B over the last decade? 

Three

[Brownie19]

12 minutes ago, L54 said:

Do you know how many 7-8 WAR seasons have come from 1B over the last decade? 

Three

Freeman's 2022 and 2023 are good examples of what a 160 wRC+ bat could give you at 1st if you can run the bases effectively and aren't a complete butcher at 1st.  Vlad has the athletic ability to match that, but we're unlikely to ever see it.

Freeman and Vlad actually have at lot of similarities at the plate - more than I thought.  I'm going to move on from this convo though man. 

[BB17]

Vladdy is "durable" in that he plays mostly every day but he's also battled knee issues. And I would say it seems like there was a correlation in 22 and 23 when he struggled with the knee.

I dunno but its pretty damn risky giving 400M to a guy at this size already. Who's to say he doesn't train as hard or do his best to keep in shape once he's already been paid.

[L54]

15 minutes ago, BB17 said:

Vladdy is "durable" in that he plays mostly every day but he's also battled knee issues. And I would say it seems like there was a correlation in 22 and 23 when he struggled with the knee.

I dunno but its pretty damn risky giving 400M to a guy at this size already. Who's to say he doesn't train as hard or do his best to keep in shape once he's already been paid.

Who’s to say he doesn’t become more professional as he approaches 30?

[L54]

2 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Freeman's 2022 and 2023 are good examples of what a 160 wRC+ bat could give you at 1st if you can run the bases effectively and aren't a complete butcher at 1st.  Vlad has the athletic ability to match that, but we're unlikely to ever see it.

Freeman and Vlad actually have at lot of similarities at the plate - more than I thought.  I'm going to move on from this convo though man. 

[BB17]

2 minutes ago, L54 said:

Who’s to say he doesn’t become more professional as he approaches 30?

It could happen for sure, but risking 400M is a lot of dough. And history has shown guys that size and First baseman age worse than the average player.

[L54]

Just now, BB17 said:

It could happen for sure, but risking 400M is a lot of dough. And history has shown guys that size and First baseman age worse than the average player.

I don’t think it’s franchise crippling 

Unless of course he ends up with Thoracic outlet syndrome or whatever in year three

[Laika]

Mets putting together a package
Mets putting together a package
Mets putting together a package
Mets putting together a package
Mets putting together a package

funny when you think about it. putting together a package. what does this even mean. writing an email to Ross? Hey douche do you like Brett Baty? 

[L54]

3 minutes ago, Laika said:

Mets putting together a package
Mets putting together a package
Mets putting together a package
Mets putting together a package
Mets putting together a package

funny when you think about it. putting together a package. what does this even mean. writing an email to Ross? Hey douche do you like Brett Baty? 

Like William in LOD 

Hey do you like Hudson Harris?

[Jimcanuck]

Sign Vladdy long term.  Then when he's in his 30s and I'm in a home, the announcer will go...

"Hereeeeee's Vladdy!"

Will bring back great memories of "Hereeeee's Johnny!"

[GNick92]

On 1/15/2025 at 4:27 PM, Jays24 said:

According to Mike Rodriguez, a source has told him that the New York Mets are attempting to trade for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Which is strange news because former Met and current free agent first baseman Pete Alonso is... right there. A long-time fan favorite in Queens, Alonso has had a quiet offseason as he looks for a long-term contract.

To say the least, this feels like an odd fit for both teams.

Report: Mets checked in with Blue Jays about Guerrero this winter

https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3190734

 

View full rumor

 

Probably be a mid season or trade deadline deal. 

[JaysAllMighty]

IMO no one is worth $40M AAV,  that's over $57,000 per PA

That's insane!

[BTS]

The Mets might be the last team I want to see acquiring Vlad. There just aren't a lot of pieces that would make for an exciting centerpiece, but at the same time I could see Atkins being interested in their guys because they're very close to MLB ready. We're looking at guys like:

- Brandon Sproat (pitcher)

- Christian Scott (injured pitcher)

- Jett Williams (might not be able to hit) 

- Luisangel Acuna (might not be able to hit)

And then post hype guys like Mauricio, Baty, 

Even Vientos has warts. Likely settles in at 1B going forward, but does he have the bat to actually make a difference there? Only a 0.331 xwOBA last year, doesn't walk enough and strikes out too much. A 110-120 wRC+ 1B can't be the biggest piece for Vlad. That's not at all a rare asset. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

38 minutes ago, BTS said:

The Mets might be the last team I want to see acquiring Vlad. There just aren't a lot of pieces that would make for an exciting centerpiece, but at the same time I could see Atkins being interested in their guys because they're very close to MLB ready. We're looking at guys like:

- Brandon Sproat (pitcher)

- Christian Scott (injured pitcher)

- Jett Williams (might not be able to hit) 

- Luisangel Acuna (might not be able to hit)

And then post hype guys like Mauricio, Baty, 

Even Vientos has warts. Likely settles in at 1B going forward, but does he have the bat to actually make a difference there? Only a 0.331 xwOBA last year, doesn't walk enough and strikes out too much. A 110-120 wRC+ 1B can't be the biggest piece for Vlad. That's not at all a rare asset. 

Yet some around here claim the Mets wouldn't want to give up Vientos alone for Vlad lol

It sucks, but lotto tickets like that is usually all you get in big deals like this. You just have to hope the FO knows what it's doing and can take those lottery tickets and make something out of one or two of them and also use the freed up salary room wisely too.

Unfortunately the front office isn't inspiring much confidence these days.

[L54]

8 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Yet some around here claim the Mets wouldn't want to give up Vientos alone for Vlad lol

It sucks, but lotto tickets like that is usually all you get in big deals like this. You just have to hope the FO knows what it's doing and can take those lottery tickets and make something out of one or two of them and also use the freed up salary room wisely too.

Unfortunately the front office isn't inspiring much confidence these days.

Vientos just put up 3 WAR in 450 PAs

Its far from a sure bet the Mets would move him for one year of Vlad, let alone add 

[saskjayfan]

On 1/17/2025 at 8:34 AM, Eat My Shatkins said:

It's amazing to me now that Vlad is one year from free agency more and more people are acting like he has been this amazing superstar the whole time and completely forget the three straight years of decline down to a 1.3 war player, the long stretches of terrible at bats and poor performance, and the bone headed costly mistakes.

 

Giving this man $450 million + might just be one of the worst mistakes made in franchise history. It's not the clear cut decision for long term success that certain people are making it out to be.

Isn't Atkins suppose to be the analytical group.  I'm starting to think they just google fangraphs like the rest of us.  If you look at analytical and advanced stats the last 4 years Vlad was elite in 21, 22 was a bit of a down year. 23 was far better than 22 when looking at the batted ball profile.  There was a massive gulf between actual results and expected results.  The expected results played out in 24.  Vlad has the potential to play 3rd or even the outfield. 

Vlad's bat is elite.  It's not good it's elite.  If they signed Vlad for 13 years I expect him to be an above average hitter for 13 years.  I expect him to be an elite hitter for the next 7 to 8 years.  He's a hall of famer.  This organization has 1 hall of famer.  He's the most no brainer extensions of all time.  Beyond his talent he has great marketability for revenue that comes in beyond what he does on the field.   

[SuperBlackhawk]

52 minutes ago, saskjayfan said:

Isn't Atkins suppose to be the analytical group.  I'm starting to think they just google fangraphs like the rest of us.  If you look at analytical and advanced stats the last 4 years Vlad was elite in 21, 22 was a bit of a down year. 23 was far better than 22 when looking at the batted ball profile.  There was a massive gulf between actual results and expected results.  The expected results played out in 24.  Vlad has the potential to play 3rd or even the outfield. 

Vlad's bat is elite.  It's not good it's elite.  If they signed Vlad for 13 years I expect him to be an above average hitter for 13 years.  I expect him to be an elite hitter for the next 7 to 8 years.  He's a hall of famer.  This organization has 1 hall of famer.  He's the most no brainer extensions of all time.  Beyond his talent he has great marketability for revenue that comes in beyond what he does on the field.   

He will be 26 before the regular season starts and his weight has already drastically yo-yoed since he became a Blue Jay. I really think he will be finished with the MLB in his early 30s,

[Spanky99]

On 1/17/2025 at 2:11 PM, Laika said:

Mets putting together a package
Mets putting together a package
Mets putting together a package
Mets putting together a package
Mets putting together a package

funny when you think about it. putting together a package. what does this even mean. writing an email to Ross? Hey douche do you like Brett Baty?