Article: Third Base Is A Spot The Blue Jays Can & Should Upgrade

[Alex Lamoureux]

The Blue Jays have a star-filled infield with Andrés Giménez now at second base, joining Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first and Bo Bichette at shortstop. However, a hole remains to be filled at third base. While pitching remains the biggest weakness for the Blue Jays, their depth chart shows third base and left field as two spots to be filled.

The Jays are reportedly pursuing Alex Bregman, the top free-agent candidate at third base. He won his first Gold Glove in 2024 and batted .260/.315/.453, giving him an OPS+ of 118. The 30-year-old produced four or more WAR in the last three seasons and Steamer projects he will be worth four more wins in 2025 with an OPS of around .786. His career walk rate of 12% is elite, and plate discipline is a skill that tends to age well.

In contrast to the other options, Bregman would add significant pop to a lineup that ranked 13^th in on-base percentage in 2024 but only 23^rd in runs scored. He’s the best match to play third for the Blue Jays among available free agents. The Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox are also rumoured to be bidding for Bregman’s next contract.

The team has the option of staying with Ernie Clement at third base rather than seeking a free-agent third baseman. Clement had his breakout year in 2024 for the Blue Jays, with a 95 OPS+ over 452 plate appearances and an impressive eight fielding runs above average. He makes a ton of contact but doesn’t hit the ball very hard, with a 100th-percentile strikeout rate and a 3rd-percentile hard-hit rate. As a 28-year-old career utility man, the 2024 season was his first time with more than 200 plate appearances in a year. He can play any infield position, which means he would be a valuable backup if the Blue Jays sign a free agent to play third base. Based on limited data, it’s hard to predict Clement’s next season, but he’ll likely be roughly a two fWAR player again if he gets every day playing time in 2025.

Yoan Moncada has been named as another free-agent candidate for the Blue Jays. The former White Sox third baseman had a career-high 140 OPS+ in 2019, when he hit 25 home runs, with a career OPS+ slightly above average at 106. He missed almost all of the 2024 season with a strained adductor muscle, which he suffered on April 9^th. He has shown consistency when he’s healthy enough to play, with a great 9.7% walk rate and a league-average glove for a third baseman. However, the Blue Jays already have an average third baseman in Clement, so it’s likely that Moncada is seeking a larger contract than the Blue Jays are willing to pay.

This front office knows that improving this lineup involves finding more star players. The Blue Jays have several depth pieces who can play multiple positions above replacement level, but the rulebook says they can’t put more than nine players on the field. Blue Jays fans faced repeated disappointments when the team reportedly finished second place with their bids to sign Shohei Ohtani last year and Juan Soto this offseason. With a dismal farm system and the team’s biggest stars approaching their walk years, the Blue Jays have to compete now or look ahead to a series of sub-.500 seasons.

This time of the offseason is a decision point for Blue Jays ownership. To make the Wild Card in 2025, the Blue Jays should sign at least two of the remaining big free agents, with Bregman, left fielder Anthony Santander, and pitcher Jack Flaherty as leading candidates. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reportedly seeks $450 million to extend his contract beyond next season.  Bregman reportedly declined an offer from the Astros for 6 years at $26 million per year, and Santander is looking to sign at around $20 million per year. The Blue Jays could act now and sign enough star power to become a playoff team, as they were in 2023. They were willing to open their pockets for the biggest names in baseball, and there’s still a possibility of signing enough free agents to salvage next season. However, that window could close any day between now and Opening Day. The alternative for Rogers would be to save money and begin a long rebuild, breaking the hearts of baseball fans all over Canada.

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[Terminator]

I tend to agree when it comes to Moncada. Not sure he's any better than Clement.

He does hit switch so we could platoon them a bit but then again we could also do that with Barger who projects better than Moncada anyway.

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, Alex Lamoureux said:

The Blue Jays could act now and sign enough star power to become a playoff team, as they were in 2023. They were willing to open their pockets for the biggest names in baseball, and there’s still a possibility of signing enough free agents to salvage next season. However, that window could close any day between now and Opening Day. The alternative for Rogers would be to save money and begin a long rebuild, breaking the hearts of baseball fans all over Canada.

 

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This whole special budget thing is odd. I get it for Ohtani, who is a legitimate global superstar that would unlock more marketing opportunities for the team.

But Soto is just a really good player. He's not a global superstar and frankly most people wouldn't even recognize him on the street in the US or Canada.

You're telling me that the team can afford to spend 765 mil on Soto but not fractions of that on other good players? Like 180 on Bregman or 100 on Flaherty? Or even 60 on Scott? Or even 400 on Vlad?

Further, given all of Bregman's playoff runs, he's probably just as recognizable as Soto and the marketability gap between the two isn't that great.

[wilko]

17 minutes ago, Terminator said:

This whole special budget thing is odd. I get it for Ohtani, who is a legitimate global superstar that would unlock more marketing opportunities for the team.

But Soto is just a really good player. He's not a global superstar and frankly most people wouldn't even recognize him on the street in the US or Canada.

You're telling me that the team can afford to spend 765 mil on Soto but not fractions of that on other good players? Like 180 on Bregman or 100 on Flaherty? Or even 60 on Scott? Or even 400 on Vlad?

Further, given all of Bregman's playoff runs, he's probably just as recognizable as Soto and the marketability gap between the two isn't that great.

Racist! I agree though... they have "deep" pockets for "special" players. Who says Vladdy's not special? I think signing 2-3 big free agents is pretty special. 

[Omar]

Let's say the Jays go out and get Bregman and Santander and somehow manage to find someone to close games without s***ing the bed. Then, miraculously make it into a wildcard spot for the playoffs. Like that is the Uber best case scenario and we would still have to start at minimum a retool for the following years based on the current pipeline. So what's the upside?  I don't get it.  Just start the teardown now.  I don't care how many loony dogs you sell in 2025 or how many sexy wardrobe changes we see from Emily Agard in the Flightdeck. Get to the heart of the matter and start the rebuild from A-ball on up. Every other course of action is just delaying the inevitable. 

[Laika]

20 minutes ago, Omar said:

Let's say the Jays go out and get Bregman and Santander and somehow manage to find someone to close games without s***ing the bed. Then, miraculously make it into a wildcard spot for the playoffs. Like that is the Uber best case scenario and we would still have to start at minimum a retool for the following years based on the current pipeline. So what's the upside?  I don't get it.  Just start the teardown now.  I don't care how many loony dogs you sell in 2025 or how many sexy wardrobe changes we see from Emily Agard in the Flightdeck. Get to the heart of the matter and start the rebuild from A-ball on up. Every other course of action is just delaying the inevitable. 

As a Ross Atkins apologetic maybe I can contort myself into enough of a pretzel to present what they may be thinking. This of course assumes they are acting in pure good faith to the organization and its fans, and not acting in the more likely and obvious way of job preservation or whatever.

The thesis would be twofold:
1) the pipeline isn't as bad as people think
2) the financial flexibility will let them do a quick re-load in any event

RE 1) we will know during 2025 if this is the case because it probably requires several of the guys at or near the MLB level turning into solid long-term regulars. Baseball prospects are just so fickle, a few helium guys or the industry being too low on certain players can move the needle so much. Example, in Feb. 2021 Kiley McDaniel ranked the Astros and Brewers as the 28th and 29th best farm systems and both of those farms ended up producing lots of talent and some star power. 

RE 2) much discussed but Rogers has money and lots of the MLB payroll expires after this year or next, so the team could re-load quickly in free agency, taking on bad contracts to get young players, or diverting resources to the amateur side or pro scouting side somehow. 

[max silver]

37 minutes ago, Omar said:

Let's say the Jays go out and get Bregman and Santander and somehow manage to find someone to close games without s***ing the bed. Then, miraculously make it into a wildcard spot for the playoffs. Like that is the Uber best case scenario and we would still have to start at minimum a retool for the following years based on the current pipeline. So what's the upside?  I don't get it.  Just start the teardown now.  I don't care how many loony dogs you sell in 2025 or how many sexy wardrobe changes we see from Emily Agard in the Flightdeck. Get to the heart of the matter and start the rebuild from A-ball on up. Every other course of action is just delaying the inevitable. 

Best case scenario is the team also signs Vlad to an extension and the team has a pretty solid core for the immediate future. 

[Abomination]

22 minutes ago, Laika said:

As a Ross Atkins apologetic maybe I can contort myself into enough of a pretzel to present what they may be thinking. This of course assumes they are acting in pure good faith to the organization and its fans, and not acting in the more likely and obvious way of job preservation or whatever.

The thesis would be twofold:
1) the pipeline isn't as bad as people think
2) the financial flexibility will let them do a quick re-load in any event

RE 1) we will know during 2025 if this is the case because it probably requires several of the guys at or near the MLB level turning into solid long-term regulars. Baseball prospects are just so fickle, a few helium guys or the industry being too low on certain players can move the needle so much. Example, in Feb. 2021 Kiley McDaniel ranked the Astros and Brewers as the 28th and 29th best farm systems and both of those farms ended up producing lots of talent and some star power. 

RE 2) much discussed but Rogers has money and lots of the MLB payroll expires after this year or next, so the team could re-load quickly in free agency, taking on bad contracts to get young players, or diverting resources to the amateur side or pro scouting side somehow. 

Yeah, I don't think the farm is nearly as bad as people are saying. We're lacking the potential star power, but being able to fill in a bunch of slots from the farm with major league regulars and buying stars could definitely work. A lot of highly touted guys struggle at the major league level anyway.

I kind of like the Cards approach from a number of years ago. They drafted "safe" high floor guys and they hit on a decent percentage of them. They didn't have loud tools, but I think many of them became solid MLB regulars.

[Omar]

46 minutes ago, max silver said:

Best case scenario is the team also signs Vlad to an extension and the team has a pretty solid core for the immediate future. 

Well I would dispute that signing Vlad is the best case scenario, there are strong opinions both ways. 

Given that they sign Vlad, who would you list as a pretty solid core  Max, please don't list Gimenez, Varsho, Kirk. 

[Omar]

14 minutes ago, Abomination said:

Yeah, I don't think the farm is nearly as bad as people are saying. We're lacking the potential star power, but being able to fill in a bunch of slots from the farm with major league regulars and buying stars could definitely work. A lot of highly touted guys struggle at the major league level anyway.

I kind of like the Cards approach from a number of years ago. They drafted "safe" high floor guys and they hit on a decent percentage of them. They didn't have loud tools, but I think many of them became solid MLB regulars.

Sure this is sound player management.  But safe high floor guys don't include, Luke's, Tiedmann, Orelvis, Barriera, Maroudis, Bloss.   Not by my reckoning. I'm willing to be corrected here but I just don't see it. 

Perhaps Nimmala becomes a thing but...

[max silver]

13 minutes ago, Omar said:

Well I would dispute that signing Vlad is the best case scenario, there are strong opinions both ways. 

Given that they sign Vlad, who would you list as a pretty solid core  Max, please don't list Gimenez, Varsho, Kirk. 

That core would obviously include the guys you were discussing a best case scenario if they signed with the Blue Jays. Recall that I said that the best case scenario with a Bregman and Santander signing would *also* include a Vlad extension. A core of position players including Vlad, Bregman, Santander, Gimenez, Varsho and Kirk would be a very solid group.

[BB17]

Varsho and Kirk are set to become FA after 2026 so unless they sign extensions I'm not really sure you would count them as "core" players.

Looking at just the roster situation and the reality of the AL east, it seems like a retool with trades would be the way to go.

You'd get a really solid haul for Vladdy, Bo, Gauseman, Bassit, Berrios etc.. and you'd like to think some of those prosects would be making their debut this year/at the very least next year. You could then play all the Barger, Loperfido, Martinez, Wagner etc young guys and really see what you have.

 

Then going into next offseason or 2027 you'd have a ton of cash to spend and hopefully a few of those young players have made the jump to being counted on as regulars. Its not like it would be a 4 year teardown and with the Jays falling in the lottery this year they still could get a top pick.

 

To me that path seems a lot more favourable and likely to produce 90+ win true contenders from 2027-2031 than if you go half-ass in with a 83 win team on paper this year. Sure you might make the postseason this year if you get lucky but its going to be tougher to win in the years after. 

[Stangstag]

5 hours ago, Omar said:

Let's say the Jays go out and get Bregman and Santander and somehow manage to find someone to close games without s***ing the bed. Then, miraculously make it into a wildcard spot for the playoffs. Like that is the Uber best case scenario and we would still have to start at minimum a retool for the following years based on the current pipeline. So what's the upside?  I don't get it.  Just start the teardown now.  I don't care how many loony dogs you sell in 2025 or how many sexy wardrobe changes we see from Emily Agard in the Flightdeck. Get to the heart of the matter and start the rebuild from A-ball on up. Every other course of action is just delaying the inevitable. 

Well in that scenario the upside would be winning a world series. That’s kinda the goal of all this

[Omar]

12 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Well in that scenario the upside would be winning a world series. That’s kinda the goal of all this

That's the point. They don't win the WS even if they do all that.

[wilko]

12 hours ago, Omar said:

That's the point. They don't win the WS even if they do all that.

Gotta beat the Dodgers. 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, wilko said:

Gotta beat the Dodgers. 

Like the Diamondbacks did in 2023?  3-0 sweep.

GREAT teams only win a playoff series about 65% of the time.

[Stangstag]

1 minute ago, Brownie19 said:

Like the Diamondbacks did in 2023?  3-0 sweep.

GREAT teams only win a playoff series about 65% of the time.

Yup, this idea/concept of “a WS contender team” is a myth.

You only need to be a playoff team to win the WS.

You can quickly look at recent winners like the Rangers, Braves, and Nationals to see that a borderline playoff team can still win it all.

The Braves and Nationals specifically had way better teams in other years and didn’t make it to the WS. They both won with pretty weak teams in their respective years.

Just make the f’ing playoffs and hope a guy gets hot.

The Dodgers didn’t win the WS last year because they were the best team. They won the WS because guys like Freeman/Edman/Betts got blazing hot at the right time.

[wilko]

Stroman reunion? Yanks are willing to eat some salary... There's worse #5's out there.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/marcus-stroman-trade-rumors-yankees-willing-eat-salary.html

[L54]

Trading for Stroman might make this team unwatchable 

[L54]

Stroman thought he was gonna go home and be the king of NYC 

Instead he’s left off the playoff roster and they’re gonna pay to have him play for somebody else 

[wilko]

I totally put that in the wrong sub. f***. 

[L54]

1 hour ago, Stangstag said:

Yup, this idea/concept of “a WS contender team” is a myth.

You only need to be a playoff team to win the WS.

You can quickly look at recent winners like the Rangers, Braves, and Nationals to see that a borderline playoff team can still win it all.

The Braves and Nationals specifically had way better teams in other years and didn’t make it to the WS. They both won with pretty weak teams in their respective years.

Just make the f’ing playoffs and hope a guy gets hot.

The Dodgers didn’t win the WS last year because they were the best team. They won the WS because guys like Freeman/Edman/Betts got blazing hot at the right time.

They won 98 regular season games, the most in the league

[L54]

1 minute ago, wilko said:

I totally put that in the wrong sub. f***. 

Frick I hate when that happens!

[max silver]

7 minutes ago, L54 said:

Stroman thought he was gonna go home and be the king of NYC 

Instead he’s left off the playoff roster and they’re gonna pay to have him play for somebody else 

Seems a bit like karma biting him in the ass. I recall he trashed the Blue Jays clubhouse years ago when the team dared to trade him to the Mets instead of his preferred New York team in the Yankees. I loved watching that guy pitch when he was a Jay but the massive Napoleon complex and constant chip on his shoulder and associated drama got old in a real hurry.

[Laika]

13 minutes ago, L54 said:

Stroman thought he was gonna go home and be the king of NYC 

Instead he’s left off the playoff roster and they’re gonna pay to have him play for somebody else 

Dude soft-ruined his career with a few weird choices. 

He could have been a power pitcher with tons of whiffs but intentionally became a groundball pitch-to-contact guy. This made his numbers boring and probably kept his upside down. 

[max silver]

Just now, Laika said:

Dude soft-ruined his career with a few weird choices. 

He could have been a power pitcher with tons of whiffs but intentionally became a groundball pitch-to-contact guy. This made his numbers boring and probably kept his upside down. 

That's certainly possible. I think he had a bit of a Halladay light package in that he could paint both sides of the plate with sinkers and cutters but I agree it's like he basically turned himself into an innings eater instead of a true top of the rotation guy. He's still had a very nice career at any rate although he may be reaching the end of it pretty quickly. Perhaps he can transition to a pen guy eventually to see if the stuff ticks up a bit in shorter (pun intended) outings where he can air things out a bit.

[Abomination]

Stroman's velocity drop last year is a bit concerning.  He's annoying on social media, but a pre-2024 Stroman could definitely help this team. 

Honestly, I'd rather sign Quantrill at a fraction of the price, but I'm not about to turn down upgrades right now (unless it comes at the expense of a big bat).

[Spanky99]

On 1/10/2025 at 1:51 PM, Laika said:

Dude soft-ruined his career with a few weird choices. 

He could have been a power pitcher with tons of whiffs but intentionally became a groundball pitch-to-contact guy. This made his numbers boring and probably kept his upside down. 

I agree, what an odd choice to knowingly move to a contact pitcher early in his career, he's no Doc Halladay... he should've been adjusting to command and contact at this point in his career now.

 

[L54]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

Seems a bit like karma biting him in the ass. I recall he trashed the Blue Jays clubhouse years ago when the team dared to trade him to the Mets instead of his preferred New York team in the Yankees. I loved watching that guy pitch when he was a Jay but the massive Napoleon complex and constant chip on his shoulder and associated drama got old in a real hurry.

It was hilarious to watch Atkins trade him to the Mets, almost as if it was an F U to him. Probably the most alpha thing he has done and it was HIGH on the alpha scale 

[SuperBlackhawk]

1 hour ago, Abomination said:

Stroman's velocity drop last year is a bit concerning.  He's annoying on social media, but a pre-2024 Stroman could definitely help this team. 

Honestly, I'd rather sign Quantrill at a fraction of the price, but I'm not about to turn down upgrades right now (unless it comes at the expense of a big bat).

How about 2020 Stroman? 😆