Alex Lamoureux

The Blue Jays have added another silver medal to their growing pile of second-place bids for free agents. Results are in for the Roki Sasaki Sweepstakes, and the incoming pitcher from Japan shocked no one by announcing that he will play for the Dodgers in 2025. The long offseason gave us plenty of time for rumours that falsely raised the hopes of Blue Jays fans everywhere. The team has become the bridesmaid again, still never a bride. The list of players rumoured to almost become Blue Jays in the last two years could make a World Series run on its own. This disappointment for Blue Jays fans is a repetition of a painful pattern. In the 2023 offseason, the Blue Jays reportedly offered Shohei Ohtani a 10-year $700 million contract. Rumours abounded that the Blue Jays had reserved an upscale sushi restaurant for dinner with Ohtani and that Ohtani was aboard a private jet from Los Angeles to Toronto. It contained Dragon’s Den panelist Robert Herjavec, who was greeted at the airport by a large group of sports reporters. Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, who had always been his first choice. Earlier this offseason, news stories about the Juan Soto sweepstakes mentioned Toronto as a possible destination, and then he signed a 15-year $765 million deal with the Mets. Sasaki, who won the last World Baseball Classic with Team Japan in 2023, joins the Dodgers “super-team” and will try to help them repeat their World Series victory. After signing Kevin Gausman in the 2021 offseason for 5 years at $110 million, the Blue Jays haven’t acquired any top free agents in the last three offseasons. Some speculate that agents are using the Blue Jays as leverage to get big contracts elsewhere because Rogers is willing to offer big money for elite players but hasn’t been able to seal the deal. Players are also motivated by winning championships, and the current state of the Blue Jays is not a championship team. The ownership can sign nobody and finish in last place next year, or they could announce tomorrow that they’re signing Alex Bregman, Anthony Santander, and Jack Flaherty to make a run at a Wild Card spot. But the Jays can’t announce all their signings simultaneously, and it might be hard to make the first move and convince the big-name free agents that more additions to the team will be forthcoming. Negotiations with homegrown star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for a contract extension may hinge on whether the Blue Jays have a competitive team going forward. Reporters have said for weeks that the Blue Jays are intensely negotiating with Bregman and Santander. Still, the string of agonizing not-quite-deals has me wondering if these players will again find a different team and leave the Blue Jays as the second-highest bidder. Everything the Dodgers are doing to build a super-team is allowed by baseball’s collective bargaining agreement. Still, it raises concerns about competitive balance when an international amateur like Sasaki chooses to join the best team because they’re the most likely to win the World Series. It’s possible that a stronger Jays roster could have convinced him to move to Canada, but he may have always planned to sign with the Dodgers and only met with other teams out of courtesy. In his announcement today that he signed a contract to play for the Dodgers, Sasaki wrote: “I will do my best to make it the right decision when I look back after my baseball career.” The Dodgers superteam will include four future Hall of Famers players – Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Clayton Kershaw. (Kershaw is not officially a Dodger at this time, but he’s expected to re-sign with the team and throw the 3000th strikeout of his career this year). Sasaki’s early posting makes him a uniquely valuable player. He is considered an international amateur, so the teams bidding for his contract are limited to offering him money from the international bonus pool. The Dodgers signed him for $6.5 million, and next year, he will earn the MLB base salary of $760,000. If Sasaki had waited until after the 2026 season, he could have signed a contract worth over $30 million/year, so the Dodgers have secured a valuable asset at an enormous discount. International free agents aged 25 or older who have played professionally for six years have more freedom to negotiate with MLB teams and play for the highest bidder. His agent, Joel Wolfe, said that playing Major League Baseball was Sasaki’s lifelong dream, so he wanted to join MLB as soon as possible, even if it meant potentially losing out on hundreds of millions of dollars. Sasaki debuted in Nippon Professional Baseball at age 19 and played four seasons, accumulating a 29-15 win-loss record with a 2.10 ERA. He stands 6’4”, and his fastball tops out at 102 miles per hour, with an average velocity of 97 mph in 2024. His strikeout rate per nine innings was an astonishing 11.5, the highest ever for a pitcher going from Japan to MLB. He threw a 19-strikeout perfect game in 2022 and followed it with eight perfect innings in his next start, setting a professional baseball record with 52 consecutive batters retired. Concerns about arm fatigue have limited his workload, so he recorded only 111 innings pitched in 2024 and has never pitched more than 130 in a season. View full article

The Blue Jays have a star-filled infield with Andrés Giménez now at second base, joining Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first and Bo Bichette at shortstop. However, a hole remains to be filled at third base. While pitching remains the biggest weakness for the Blue Jays, their depth chart shows third base and left field as two spots to be filled. The Jays are reportedly pursuing Alex Bregman, the top free-agent candidate at third base. He won his first Gold Glove in 2024 and batted .260/.315/.453, giving him an OPS+ of 118. The 30-year-old produced four or more WAR in the last three seasons and Steamer projects he will be worth four more wins in 2025 with an OPS of around .786. His career walk rate of 12% is elite, and plate discipline is a skill that tends to age well. In contrast to the other options, Bregman would add significant pop to a lineup that ranked 13th in on-base percentage in 2024 but only 23rd in runs scored. He’s the best match to play third for the Blue Jays among available free agents. The Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox are also rumoured to be bidding for Bregman’s next contract. The team has the option of staying with Ernie Clement at third base rather than seeking a free-agent third baseman. Clement had his breakout year in 2024 for the Blue Jays, with a 95 OPS+ over 452 plate appearances and an impressive eight fielding runs above average. He makes a ton of contact but doesn’t hit the ball very hard, with a 100th-percentile strikeout rate and a 3rd-percentile hard-hit rate. As a 28-year-old career utility man, the 2024 season was his first time with more than 200 plate appearances in a year. He can play any infield position, which means he would be a valuable backup if the Blue Jays sign a free agent to play third base. Based on limited data, it’s hard to predict Clement’s next season, but he’ll likely be roughly a two fWAR player again if he gets every day playing time in 2025. Yoan Moncada has been named as another free-agent candidate for the Blue Jays. The former White Sox third baseman had a career-high 140 OPS+ in 2019, when he hit 25 home runs, with a career OPS+ slightly above average at 106. He missed almost all of the 2024 season with a strained adductor muscle, which he suffered on April 9th. He has shown consistency when he’s healthy enough to play, with a great 9.7% walk rate and a league-average glove for a third baseman. However, the Blue Jays already have an average third baseman in Clement, so it’s likely that Moncada is seeking a larger contract than the Blue Jays are willing to pay. This front office knows that improving this lineup involves finding more star players. The Blue Jays have several depth pieces who can play multiple positions above replacement level, but the rulebook says they can’t put more than nine players on the field. Blue Jays fans faced repeated disappointments when the team reportedly finished second place with their bids to sign Shohei Ohtani last year and Juan Soto this offseason. With a dismal farm system and the team’s biggest stars approaching their walk years, the Blue Jays have to compete now or look ahead to a series of sub-.500 seasons. This time of the offseason is a decision point for Blue Jays ownership. To make the Wild Card in 2025, the Blue Jays should sign at least two of the remaining big free agents, with Bregman, left fielder Anthony Santander, and pitcher Jack Flaherty as leading candidates. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reportedly seeks $450 million to extend his contract beyond next season. Bregman reportedly declined an offer from the Astros for 6 years at $26 million per year, and Santander is looking to sign at around $20 million per year. The Blue Jays could act now and sign enough star power to become a playoff team, as they were in 2023. They were willing to open their pockets for the biggest names in baseball, and there’s still a possibility of signing enough free agents to salvage next season. However, that window could close any day between now and Opening Day. The alternative for Rogers would be to save money and begin a long rebuild, breaking the hearts of baseball fans all over Canada. View full article