General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[Brownie19]

On 5/18/2025 at 2:15 PM, max silver said:

That's possible, but Varsho is up to about 40 throws now, and it feels a little unlikely that he's intentionally lobbed every one of those back with minimum effort vs simply having less arm strength to start with. Perhaps he's trying to save the shoulder a bit by pulling back on the throwing effort or something of that sort. 

This seems totally possible to me.  He may be just "saving" his arm and trying to give it more time to rehab it back to 100%.  No sense "letting it loose" if the opportunity doesn't present itself.  It said the Jays were working him back to 180 foot throws, but it never said he has to be able to throw 100% and hit his peak OF velo to return.  It's a possibility they let him comeback earlier, knowing he wouldn't have this peak velo (yet), but that he also no longer has to worry about re-injuring it (more than normal). 

[Spanky99]

Interesting read with Popkins/Varsho and the new hitting program he's implemented...

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/revamped-blue-jays-hitting-program-helping-varsho-find-clues-of-past-success/

[Spanky99]

This is insane...
 

 

[polar bear]

2 hours ago, Spanky99 said:

This is insane...
 

Truely amazing.

 

[max silver]

3 hours ago, Spanky99 said:

This is insane...
 

 

I believe that Varsho is eventually going to bring down a ball in this fashion. It's crazy how good his jumps have been this season as he's regularly made very difficult catches look easy based on how good his reads are off of the bat.

[Pendleton]

 

[Terminator]

On 4/23/2025 at 10:38 AM, Terminator said:

I am going to get absolutely tarred and feathered over this take BUT here it goes

Nathan Lukes is looking pretty interesting:

• .342 xwOBA this season, dragged down by a .200 BABIP
• K% of 13.5% and BB% of 10.8%
• Steamer projects a 114 wRC+ to go with his career wRC+ of 110 so far
• His updated Steamer600 is 2.5 WAR but I think it underrates his defense a lot
• Zips (which likes his defense and his bat) projects him for 2 WAR ROS in just 79 games

It's going to be interesting to see what they do when Varsho returns.

Roden, Barger, Wagner and Lukes are all grouped so closely together. But I think you could make the case that Lukes should stick over those guys. 

Do I know ball or what you guys

[Spanky99]

Barger had 5 hard hit balls tonight... 

[John_Havok]

Can Nathan Lukes stick.

[Laika]

Funny how your perception of a player like Lukes can develop. 

I used to think of him as a decent defender without much stick.

Now it is obvious that he is more like Roden or Wagner. Just an older, more refined version. Puts the bat on the ball, with a feel for the barrel, with middling power and mediocre at best defense. 

I wouldn't expect him to homer at this rate going forward but it seems like he should put up competitive at bats.

[Brownie19]

22 minutes ago, Laika said:

Funny how your perception of a player like Lukes can develop. 

I used to think of him as a decent defender without much stick.

Now it is obvious that he is more like Roden or Wagner. Just an older, more refined version. Puts the bat on the ball, with a feel for the barrel, with middling power and mediocre at best defense. 

I wouldn't expect him to homer at this rate going forward but it seems like he should put up competitive at bats.

Agreed.  He seems like he's a solid 4th or 5th OFer on the strong side of a platoon.  The more he plays, the more likely he'll get exposed and pitchers will adjust and find a hole or 2 in his swing - then well see if he can make the necessary adjustments, which he'll need to to "stick". 

The most likely outcome is he'll hang around the league for another 3-4 years until his skills decline, which he probably won't be able to overcome and will bounce around in the minors before calling it quits at like age 35.

Kudos to him for continuing to grind it out at age 30 and earn some regular playing time at the ML level.  He's certainly living the dream right now and I'm rooting for him.  He certainly has the grit necessary to succeed and we need affordable ML bats who can contribute.

[Terminator]

Two seasons in a row where Lukes has crushed breaking and offspeed pitches but has struggled against fastballs. 

He's already seeing a heavy dose of fastballs but I wonder if they'll start cranking up the usage against him.

[Omar]

Sure hope Lukes can stick. He will never develop as a power bat but has to capitalize on his utility to a team. He sure has paid his dues as a 30 year old minor leaguer. I'm a sucker for underdog storylines.  

 

[max silver]

On 5/22/2025 at 10:05 AM, Terminator said:

Two seasons in a row where Lukes has crushed breaking and offspeed pitches but has struggled against fastballs. 

He's already seeing a heavy dose of fastballs but I wonder if they'll start cranking up the usage against him.

Lukes is producing a solid .357 xwOBA against fastballs after a .252 xwOBA last season so it's not a big weakness up to this point of the season.

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

Lukes is producing a solid .357 xwOBA against fastballs after a .252 xwOBA last season so it's not a big weakness up to this point of the season.

Ok I looked and thought he sucked again, my eyes must be going bad

[Terminator]

 

[Terminator]

 

[John_Havok]

15 minutes ago, Terminator said:

 

Man, I had actually completely forgot that Gimenez existed. 

[Brownie19]

They said a soft target for Manoah is to return at the start of August.  That could be a huge shot in the arm for the rotation.

[Brownie19]

Jays offense in May is:

- 3rd in MLB in average 

- 4th in MLB in OPS

- 5th in MLB in wRC+

 

[Laika]

4 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

They said a soft target for Manoah is to return at the start of August.  That could be a huge shot in the arm for the rotation.

You think? I seem to remember him being a piece of s*** for a year+ before he got hurt 

[Terminator]

He was horrible in 2023 but was showing some signs of life in the few starts he made in 2024.

 

[Brownie19]

1 minute ago, Terminator said:

He was horrible in 2023 but was showing some signs of life in the few starts he made in 2024.

 

That's what I remember.  I said "could".  I'm excited to see him return - we need the pitching depth.

[Spanky99]

17 minutes ago, Terminator said:

He was horrible in 2023 but was showing some signs of life in the few starts he made in 2024.

 

 

16 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

That's what I remember.  I said "could".  I'm excited to see him return - we need the pitching depth.

Don't let the wet blanket get to you guys. 😎

[jaysblue]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Jays offense in May is:

- 3rd in MLB in average 

- 4th in MLB in OPS

- 5th in MLB in wRC+

 

May historically always feels like a good month for the Jays. 

[John_Havok]

4 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Jays offense in May is:

- 3rd in MLB in average 

- 4th in MLB in OPS

- 5th in MLB in wRC+

 

How's the pitching over the same stretch? Too lazy too look it up myself. 

[Ryu In My House]

I've liked Lukes for a while, now. last year I thought he had a shot to stick, but I didn't see a very high ceiling - maybe 2 fWAR if everything lands right. I thought he would eventually end up in Pittsburgh or Oakland/Las Vegas and have a decent career. However, i am starting to think he's clutch in addition to decent peripherals. It will be interesting to see how he develops this year. I am definitely a fan, and would wish him great sucess wherever he lands (not unlike Pillar).

[max silver]

10 hours ago, John_Havok said:

How's the pitching over the same stretch? Too lazy too look it up myself. 

13th in ERA, 17th in FIP.

[John_Havok]

16 minutes ago, max silver said:

13th in ERA, 17th in FIP.

Any major differences between pen and SP?

[max silver]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

Any major differences between pen and SP?

Yeah, the rotation has been a real sore spot for the month of May, whereas the pen has been very solid despite the struggles of Hoffman and Garcia.

Rotation 

ERA 25th FIP 26th

Bullpen

ERA 11th FIP 7th