How good is Bowden Francis going to be moving forward?

[Terminator]

How good is Bowden Francis going to be moving forward?

[Jimcanuck]

Voted #4 SP while thinking of Manoka.

[Spanky99]

Voted #4 SP while thinking of Manoka.

 

So what does that mean, lol? What's Francis?

[Spanky99]

How good is Bowden Francis going to be moving forward?

 

Where's your vote?

[Terminator]

Where's your vote?

 

I was going to vote #4 but I didn't want to be associated with Jim so I'm going with #3.

 

I'm a little bullish on him anyway. The change in pitch mix has given him a true talent change. The curve had great movement but it was a slow breaker that hitters could see from a mile away and lead to major home run problems for him.

 

This fastball/split combo gives off Gausman vibes and I think he can remain effective with it. The curve and slider are solid 3rd and 4th pitches for him.

[Laika]

Before or after the TJS?

[Terminator]

Before or after the TJS?

 

Dammit Laika

 

I've actually been having fun this month watching baseball

[Governator]

Bowden Francace

[Omar]

Hopefully a solid 5. He doesn't have the velo or the stuff for 1-3. Hope he proves me wrong and turns into tor starter.

[Laika]

He's interesting

The stuff+ over the last month is actually pretty middling, like 94 stuff+

But the splitter effectively makes him a wide arsenal pitcher who is 50% FB, 25% splitter, 15% slider 10% curveball or something like that

It's also not super common for a SP to throw a splitter that much

Since July 28th here are the SP who have thrown a splitter 20%+ of the time:

Gausman 35% Imanaga 32% Eovaldi 32% Francis 26% Houck 22% Mitchell Parker 21% (Bryce Miller 15% is next).

Six guys.

Comp to sliders, you get 19 guys and then a bunch more who are barely below 20%

 

AND we kind of know that stuff+ sucks with changeups and splitters. e.g. it has Gausman and Imanaga's splitters as 90 and 80 pitches this year. Both of those are thrown a lot and have positive run values, so that just doesn't make sense.

 

So if you make some assumptions:

- more pitches is better

- the splitter is a weapon despite what stuff+ says

- he has good command

 

Then I think he could be pretty damn good as a wide arsenal guy with good command and enough tricks up his sleeve. Some guys in that bucket are:

- Zach Eflin (he might have 5+ pitches though)

- Erick Fedde (cutter, sinker, slider, change)

- Michael King (four seamer, sinker, slider, change)

- Seth Lugo (four seamer, sinker, slider, curveball, plus three other show-me pitches)

- This late career version of Nathan Eovaldi

 

^ all of the above are good 2024 SP with qualified innings but below average overall stuff+

 

I guess at the end of the day it could just be the classic baseball developmental touched-by-god leap of "man finds changeup"

 

 

The thing we don't really know yet is if he actually has good command. If it comes and goes, he won't be as good as the above. And if the splitter isn't as good as it has seemed recently and hitters catch onto it, then he slides down the spectrum.

[Masterbather]

I voted fringe pitcher on behalf of Taylor Ward.

[Spanky99]

I was going to vote #4 but I didn't want to be associated with Jim so I'm going with #3.

 

I'm a little bullish on him anyway. The change in pitch mix has given him a true talent change. The curve had great movement but it was a slow breaker that hitters could see from a mile away and lead to major home run problems for him.

 

This fastball/split combo gives off Gausman vibes and I think he can remain effective with it. The curve and slider are solid 3rd and 4th pitches for him.

 

He's bringing me a mid guy vibe with how this is rolling, he's been sublime since he's been recalled. Must be a tweak, it's been shocking.

[Omar]

He's interesting

The stuff+ over the last month is actually pretty middling, like 94 stuff+

But the splitter effectively makes him a wide arsenal pitcher who is 50% FB, 25% splitter, 15% slider 10% curveball or something like that

It's also not super common for a SP to throw a splitter that much

Since July 28th here are the SP who have thrown a splitter 20%+ of the time:

Gausman 35% Imanaga 32% Eovaldi 32% Francis 26% Houck 22% Mitchell Parker 21% (Bryce Miller 15% is next).

Six guys.

Comp to sliders, you get 19 guys and then a bunch more who are barely below 20%

 

AND we kind of know that stuff+ sucks with changeups and splitters. e.g. it has Gausman and Imanaga's splitters as 90 and 80 pitches this year. Both of those are thrown a lot and have positive run values, so that just doesn't make sense.

 

So if you make some assumptions:

- more pitches is better

- the splitter is a weapon despite what stuff+ says

- he has good command

 

Then I think he could be pretty damn good as a wide arsenal guy with good command and enough tricks up his sleeve. Some guys in that bucket are:

- Zach Eflin (he might have 5+ pitches though)

- Erick Fedde (cutter, sinker, slider, change)

- Michael King (four seamer, sinker, slider, change)

- Seth Lugo (four seamer, sinker, slider, curveball, plus three other show-me pitches)

- This late career version of Nathan Eovaldi

 

^ all of the above are good 2024 SP with qualified innings but below average overall stuff+

 

I guess at the end of the day it could just be the classic baseball developmental touched-by-god leap of "man finds changeup"

 

 

The thing we don't really know yet is if he actually has good command. If it comes and goes, he won't be as good as the above. And if the splitter isn't as good as it has seemed recently and hitters catch onto it, then he slides down the spectrum.

 

All good. Now what's your vote?

[Spanky99]

Hopefully a solid 5. He doesn't have the velo or the stuff for 1-3. Hope he proves me wrong and turns into tor starter.

 

This is basically why I voted a 4, kind of always thought he'd be a 4 when I dove into more detail. After Laika was peeping his horn.

[Omar]

He's bringing me a mid guy vibe with how this is rolling, he's been sublime since he's been recalled. Must be a tweak, it's been shocking.

 

Much more than just a tweak. He has basically dumped his curveball now and is all in on a sinker. I guess Gausman had a big brother to little brother talk with him about the effectiveness of the splitter. Whatever works for him, just keep 'er going I guess.

[Spanky99]

He's interesting

The stuff+ over the last month is actually pretty middling, like 94 stuff+

But the splitter effectively makes him a wide arsenal pitcher who is 50% FB, 25% splitter, 15% slider 10% curveball or something like that

It's also not super common for a SP to throw a splitter that much

Since July 28th here are the SP who have thrown a splitter 20%+ of the time:

Gausman 35% Imanaga 32% Eovaldi 32% Francis 26% Houck 22% Mitchell Parker 21% (Bryce Miller 15% is next).

Six guys.

Comp to sliders, you get 19 guys and then a bunch more who are barely below 20%

 

AND we kind of know that stuff+ sucks with changeups and splitters. e.g. it has Gausman and Imanaga's splitters as 90 and 80 pitches this year. Both of those are thrown a lot and have positive run values, so that just doesn't make sense.

 

So if you make some assumptions:

- more pitches is better

- the splitter is a weapon despite what stuff+ says

- he has good command

 

Then I think he could be pretty damn good as a wide arsenal guy with good command and enough tricks up his sleeve. Some guys in that bucket are:

- Zach Eflin (he might have 5+ pitches though)

- Erick Fedde (cutter, sinker, slider, change)

- Michael King (four seamer, sinker, slider, change)

- Seth Lugo (four seamer, sinker, slider, curveball, plus three other show-me pitches)

- This late career version of Nathan Eovaldi

 

^ all of the above are good 2024 SP with qualified innings but below average overall stuff+

 

I guess at the end of the day it could just be the classic baseball developmental touched-by-god leap of "man finds changeup"

 

 

The thing we don't really know yet is if he actually has good command. If it comes and goes, he won't be as good as the above. And if the splitter isn't as good as it has seemed recently and hitters catch onto it, then he slides down the spectrum.

 

The Gasman taught him his splitter grip, he's been gravy since he started using it in game, hah.

[Spanky99]

Much more than just a tweak. He has basically dumped his curveball now and is all in on a sinker. I guess Gausman had a big brother to little brother talk with him about the effectiveness of the sinker. Whatever works for him, just keep 'er going I guess.

 

Yeah, I read that bit as well, lol. Crazy how it works, sometimes.

[Laika]

All good. Now what's your vote?

 

There was no TJS option so I am abstaining...

 

Probably SP4 is the highest I can go right now. Sample too small, novelty can be a big factor, fastball velo remains fringe.

[wilko]

Much more than just a tweak. He has basically dumped his curveball now and is all in on a sinker. I guess Gausman had a big brother to little brother talk with him about the effectiveness of the splitter. Whatever works for him, just keep 'er going I guess.

 

That's the crazy part. His curve was nasty. Huge 12-6 drop on it.

[Terminator]

 

This is a completely cherry picked stat and it is a SSS. But it does highlight the point that he hasn't just had a good streak, he has been COMPLETELY dominant.

 

If he was putting up a run of decent quality starts or I would be hesitant to say he can be anything better than a #4. But this is another level. So a #4 is probably the best bet, there is potential he could be far better.

 

And just think, we got this guy for Rowdy Tellez!

[Joltin Joe]

I hope we find another one

[Brownie19]

Extend Atkins for the Francis trade alone. This is becoming a Yordan for Fields or a Tatis for Shields type, franchise altering trade.

[G-Snarls]

This level of performance is obviously unsustainable but the fact that he is even capable of it suggests to me he could be an above average starter.

[Omar]

There was no TJS option so I am abstaining...

 

Probably SP4 is the highest I can go right now. Sample too small, novelty can be a big factor, fastball velo remains fringe.

 

[Jonn]

I am still thrilled with him as a Swingman but expanding his arsenal is clearly seeing him blossom. He’s certainly atleast starting next Season in the rotation if he’s healthy.

[glory]

Barring injury, I think #4/5 starter is most realistic, and that would still be found money for the team. Anything above that would be amazing, though less likely.

[Olerud363]

Barring injury, I think #4/5 starter is most realistic, and that would still be found money for the team. Anything above that would be amazing, though less likely.

 

Before answering the following should be provided

 

Stats for Josh Towers best 30 inning run in 2005 with his k-rate normalized to 2024 k rates.

[Olerud363]

Before answering the following should be provided

 

Stats for Josh Towers best 30 inning run in 2005 with his k-rate normalized to 2024 k rates.

 

Looking at month by month Towers did not have anything too spectacular in 2005. Best was like 45 innings 22 ks 2.4 ERA... so probably Josh Towers never had a 30 inning run like this...

 

Who did? Alek Manoah probably had some pretty good 30 inning runs... of course Alek Manoah had some pretty goot 250 inning runs and that didn't last either.

 

He's 4 years older but this run, if he finishes it off will be very similar to Halladay's 2001.

[Key22]

Buck Martinez compared Bowden to Jim Clancy and that is the exact guy I was thinking of when I saw him pitch - he is a tall guy with an over-the-top delivery.

 

From what I see - his repertoire looks fairly pedestrian BUT his splitter looks odd to me like some weird Knuckle-Split or something - it sort of flutters up there. Whatever it is it looks different from what everyone else throws and maybe that's the key to his success.

 

I would not get too excited yet because I am old enough to remember Mark Eichorn who was a 7 WAR reliever (yes reliever) for us because he was throwing "something no one else did" and the league couldn't figure him out for like 2 years - then they did.

 

Granted Francis throws a lot harder but let's see how he does - hopefully, we finally get a bit of luck and find a diamond.

 

Here is a terrific stats-laden video on just how ridiculous Mark Eichhorn was and a reminder to folks not to get too excited over 4-5 starts.

 

[G-Snarls]

Anyone want to change their vote?