Vladdy/Bo Extension or Trade Discussion

[max silver]

Clement is a great bench piece that can start twice a week. The reason his numbers are slightly above average is because he doesn't play every day.

 

Clement has been playing nearly every day for several months now. Going back to June 6 he's produced a 115 wrC+ and 1.3 FWAR in a third of a season. That's a helluva lot more than a bench player who is only producing because he's not playing very much.

[max silver]

His arm strength is a huge concern in an every day role at third or short.

 

I think his arm strength is fine. To my eyes his throwing troubles stem from not setting his feet and throwing off of his back foot too often. He tends to rush his throws a bit instead of taking a tad more time to put more on the throws and this leads to a lot of bounced throws.

[Jimcanuck]

What is this based on (outside of the JD example)?

 

The closer a player gets to FA, the lower their value.

 

Then we have Bo, starting to get a history of soft tissue injuries, and a history of being lost at the plate for long stretches (not just this year).

 

I expect if you game the various probabilities, trading sooner than later is ahead by a good measure.

[Joltin Joe]

Clement is a great bench piece that can start twice a week. The reason his numbers are slightly above average is because he doesn't play every day.

Playing Vlad at 3b part time get best out of Clement.

 

Also usually easier to find power 1b-DH in off season than power 3b. Can move him in and out of 1b

[Terminator]

It's happening...2 games in a row of Vlad at 3B.

 

What a roller coaster his career has been.

 

We all dreamed of a hall of fame career at 3B and after a couple of mediocre years as a fat 1B, an MVP caliber season and a year that we thought he might actually be ass, it turns out he might get there after all.

[hanton]

It's happening...2 games in a row of Vlad at 3B.

 

What a roller coaster his career has been.

 

We all dreamed of a hall of fame career at 3B and after a couple of mediocre years as a fat 1B, an MVP caliber season and a year that we thought he might actually be ass, it turns out he might get there after all.

 

Bassitt.

 

should have been there all along

[jaysblue]

It's happening...2 games in a row of Vlad at 3B.

 

What a roller coaster his career has been.

 

We all dreamed of a hall of fame career at 3B and after a couple of mediocre years as a fat 1B, an MVP caliber season and a year that we thought he might actually be ass, it turns out he might get there after all.

 

Blair has been talking about it everyday this week. Was saying when the Jays signed him, AA asked him what position he wanted to play and Vladdy said 3B.

[Laika]

He is going to be 3B eligible for a while in dynasty leagues. Wow!

 

I don't own him anywhere sad

[jaysblue]

He is going to be 3B eligible for a while in dynasty leagues. Wow!

 

I don't own him anywhere sad

 

Time to buy Vladdy in fantasy baseball was back in May, but given all our dynasty leagues are members from the BJMB, nobody wanted to trade him. Same with Bo even right now.

[Laika]

Yeah he's strictly unavailable in every dynasty league I am in and he always has been, even when he sucked.

 

P2F traded for him in LOD pre 2023. Matt Olson, Alek Thomas, Drey Jameson, and Diego Cartaya for Vlad a 2nd and Whitlock.

 

Trade looks amazing now. Looked sorta bad for one year.

[Stangstag]

Yeah he's strictly unavailable in every dynasty league I am in and he always has been, even when he sucked.

 

P2F traded for him in LOD pre 2023. Matt Olson, Alek Thomas, Drey Jameson, and Diego Cartaya for Vlad a 2nd and Whitlock.

 

Trade looks amazing now. Looked sorta bad for one year.

 

Olson has been such a dud this year, dude is hitting like Varsho without the defensive utility ffs

[connorp]

Time to buy Vladdy in fantasy baseball was back in May, but given all our dynasty leagues are members from the BJMB, nobody wanted to trade him. Same with Bo even right now.

 

Yeah, I’d have to hear some other names, but I’d put Bo way up the list of most overrated assets in OBP leagues, after he stopped stealing. But I imagine I’d look at it that sane as someone that has him. He was a Too 15 asset not long ago, so people will just hold him.

[Joltin Joe]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2024/08/18/ethan-holliday-2025-mlb-draft-top-prospect-jackson/74842574007/

 

Nothing new here really, just more confirmation of what we've heard for the past few months.

 

At this point we have to hope Bo comes out with one decent month to up his value a little more for the offseason.

Has to start next season with Jays. Unless Toronto willing to let him go just to free up 17 million

[Brownie19]

Time to buy Vladdy in fantasy baseball was back in May, but given all our dynasty leagues are members from the BJMB, nobody wanted to trade him. Same with Bo even right now.

 

you don't say...

[Joltin Joe]

Bo expected to meet team in Boston. Hope to start a week from now

[jaysblue]

you don't say...

 

You should play some fantasy ball Brownie! Were you in any of the message board leagues before?

[jaysblue]

Yeah, I’d have to hear some other names, but I’d put Bo way up the list of most overrated assets in OBP leagues, after he stopped stealing. But I imagine I’d look at it that sane as someone that has him. He was a Too 15 asset not long ago, so people will just hold him.

 

Yeah Bo is really overrated in OBP leagues. Unless he hits .300+ every season so his OBP sits around .340 to .350, steals 20-25 bases and sticks at shortstop in the long term.

 

I'm sure both Vlad and Bo were moved in non-Blue Jays fantasy leagues earlier this season. Definitely some managers would be regretting moving Vladdy right now.

[Brownie19]

You should play some fantasy ball Brownie! Were you in any of the message board leagues before?

 

No - I wasn't. I played fantasy sports for about 15 years, but I don't have time for it anymore.

[Olerud363]

He is the same as Raphael Devers probably both as a hitter and defensive player. Devers defense rates better because he has stayed at third, but based on discussions on this esteemed board a lot of people think Vlad might be the rare player who scores better at third, because his arm is wasted at first. Vlad is probably a bit better hitter, but Fenway masks that. The fWars are comparable through age 25.

 

So what contract did Devers get? Would Vlad be happy getting the same as Devers? Or would he demand the same crazy amount as Soto, even though Soto is a non-linear level above? (Soto is a rare bird, and the 70 extra walks a year, give 3 extra WAR a year).

 

Problem is no one, this casual, Vlad, this board, believes 70 extra walks a year are worth 2-3 WAR. Thus if Vlad and Soto look superficially the same, and Soto get's 12 years 650 million, Vlad will want that and really he deserves whatever Devers got (10 year 300 or so?).

[jaysblue]

He is the same as Raphael Devers probably both as a hitter and defensive player. Devers defense rates better because he has stayed at third, but based on discussions on this esteemed board a lot of people think Vlad might be the rare player who scores better at third, because his arm is wasted at first. Vlad is probably a bit better hitter, but Fenway masks that. The fWars are comparable through age 25.

 

So what contract did Devers get? Would Vlad be happy getting the same as Devers? Or would he demand the same crazy amount as Soto, even though Soto is a non-linear level above? (Soto is a rare bird, and the 70 extra walks a year, give 3 extra WAR a year).

 

Problem is no one, this casual, Vlad, this board, believes 70 extra walks a year are worth 2-3 WAR. Thus if Vlad and Soto look superficially the same, and Soto get's 12 years 650 million, Vlad will want that and really he deserves whatever Devers got (10 year 300 or so?).

 

Devers is a great comp. Red Sox gave Devers an 11 year, $331M contract extension back in 2023. $300-350M for Vladdy is quite fair in comparison with Devers, though like you said if Soto signs a monster deal worth around $600M, Vladdy might think he can be worth that.

 

Ideally, would be best to lock Vladdy up to an extension similar to Devers before Soto signs a monster deal this offseason.

[connorp]

Well, at least now more people here are coming around to realistic figures. Ironically, I’m going to partially join the naysayer “remember Chris Davis” people and say, I think Vlad and his agents are going to think more than the Devers contract, based on the Soto situation and it’s not going to be there. I don’t think he signs anything like a 10/300. Think they’d want more. I think if Vlad is 1.000 OPS next year, I think he gets to $400m for sure though. At that point, it’d be proven he’s a Top 4 bat in the game and a relative unicorn.

[John_Havok]

Devers is a great comp. Red Sox gave Devers an 11 year, $331M contract extension back in 2023. $300-350M for Vladdy is quite fair in comparison with Devers, though like you said if Soto signs a monster deal worth around $600M, Vladdy might think he can be worth that.

 

Ideally, would be best to lock Vladdy up to an extension similar to Devers before Soto signs a monster deal this offseason.

 

Ideally yes, but you know Vlads camp is going to be waiting until Soto's deal is announced before they agree to anything.

 

I can't seriously think they think Vlad and Soto are in the same level, but...waiting until the absolute elite guy signs is always the way to go for the guys in the next tier down, even if it's just and extension rather than a FA deal.

[jaysblue]

Ideally yes, but you know Vlads camp is going to be waiting until Soto's deal is announced before they agree to anything.

 

I can't seriously think they think Vlad and Soto are in the same level, but...waiting until the absolute elite guy signs is always the way to go for the guys in the next tier down, even if it's just and extension rather than a FA deal.

 

Yeah I agree completely. If I were Vlad's agent, would be suggesting the same thing. Wait until Soto signs before agreeing to anything.

[connorp]

Ideally yes, but you know Vlads camp is going to be waiting until Soto's deal is announced before they agree to anything.

 

I can't seriously think they think Vlad and Soto are in the same level, but...waiting until the absolute elite guy signs is always the way to go for the guys in the next tier down, even if it's just and extension rather than a FA deal.

 

The thing to also remember, is in all sports, your agent is always trying to one up the highest contract. Like in the NFL and NBA, this player becomes the highest paid, regardless of Player A was better two years ago.

 

MLB has made it tricky. There is some general formula teams have started using where AAVs are increasing in principle, but they use years to spread it out. So like someone sees a 12 year deal and immediately think, wow how stupid is that, he’s going to be terrible years 7-12. They’re assuming they’re so smart and not that the people running the billion dollar company understand that too and factored it in

[connorp]

It’s sort of like, what are prime years worth. So if you use nerd calculations that say $10-12m/war as baseline, it’s like ok I think this guy is going to be 6 WAR next year and I’m ok paying him $70m in essence

[Spanky99]

Why? Soto's on another planet than Vlad, lol.

[Olerud363]

Ideally yes, but you know Vlads camp is going to be waiting until Soto's deal is announced before they agree to anything.

 

I can't seriously think they think Vlad and Soto are in the same level, but...waiting until the absolute elite guy signs is always the way to go for the guys in the next tier down, even if it's just and extension rather than a FA deal.

 

The only difference is 70 walks. Per 162 they are really close otherwise. .286 35 103 for Soto, .285 32 100 for Vlad and .282 34 107 for Devers.

 

I think in Arb Vlad could get a crazy amount because it may not be that analytical and his comparison will be Soto after 2023 (.275 35 100)

 

Long term deal? First thing the agents will do is put a comparison package together, illustrating Vlad and Soto are the same (except for 70 walks which they won't mention because who cares about stupid walks).

 

What are 70 walks? Just 70 base clogging events.

 

I'm not even trying to be funny here. Soto has had -20 defensive years, Soto has struggled with ground ball issues at times. Soto and Vlad and Devers are beautiful brothers exactly, exactly, exactly the same...

 

Except Soto gets 135 walks a year and the other two 65.

[connorp]

Why? Soto's on another planet than Vlad, lol.

 

I don’t think that’s determined, no. To date for sure, in terms of consistency. You can’t sip the Vlad juice all the way yet, but he puts up a 1.000 OPS next year, I think the playing field is much more level

[Spanky99]

I don’t think that’s determined, no. To date for sure, in terms of consistency. You can’t sip the Vlad juice all the way yet, but he puts up a 1.000 OPS next year, I think the playing field is much more level

 

K.....

[Spanky99]

He is the same as Raphael Devers probably both as a hitter and defensive player. Devers defense rates better because he has stayed at third, but based on discussions on this esteemed board a lot of people think Vlad might be the rare player who scores better at third, because his arm is wasted at first. Vlad is probably a bit better hitter, but Fenway masks that. The fWars are comparable through age 25.

 

So what contract did Devers get? Would Vlad be happy getting the same as Devers? Or would he demand the same crazy amount as Soto, even though Soto is a non-linear level above? (Soto is a rare bird, and the 70 extra walks a year, give 3 extra WAR a year).

 

Problem is no one, this casual, Vlad, this board, believes 70 extra walks a year are worth 2-3 WAR. Thus if Vlad and Soto look superficially the same, and Soto get's 12 years 650 million, Vlad will want that and really he deserves whatever Devers got (10 year 300 or so?).

 

What does that even mean? You can't just chuck his skillset out the window, it's exactly why he's that much better. IDK