Around Baseball 2024

[connorp]

You are thinking about it the wrong way

 

You can't go looking for the exceptional comps. You need to just look at all kids at that level of the minors who have struck out 30% of the time.

 

And even if you want to look at the exceptional comps, those guys would have had great batter ball profiles and Nimmala's is probably horrible.

 

As a casual, I’ll agree. I hated all the Joey Bats comps on guys that were primed to finally break out at 29

[hanton]

Puk reminds me of Andrew Miller

[John_Havok]

Ohtani, Betts and Freeman went back to back to back to open the game against Arizona. First time in franchise history to start the game with 3 HRs.

[metafour]

You are thinking about it the wrong way

 

You can't go looking for the exceptional comps. You need to just look at all kids at that level of the minors who have struck out 30% of the time.

 

And even if you want to look at the exceptional comps, those guys would have had great batter ball profiles and Nimmala's is probably horrible.

 

No, I'm not thinking about it the wrong way.

 

Most players at that age/level don't have the raw tools to ever even make the MLB. So if they have a 30% K-rate in A-ball, it is likely because they outright suck. Why would I care about comparing Nimmala to those players? He doesn't belong in that "bucket".

 

The players who can "turn around" or succeed with defects like a high K-rate in the low minors are those with elite tools. Nimmala is a SS with 60 or 70 grade power upside and above-average current EV's. You will find that most if not all of the successful MLB hitters who were striking out a lot in the low minors will fit some variant of that type of profile.

 

Most of Nimmala's issue right now is pitch recognition, which you would expect to naturally improve as he sees more pitches. Here is a fun fact: Nimmala is YOUNGER than each of the following 1st round HS hitters who were just selected in the 2024 Draft: Bryce Rainer, PJ Morlando, Theo Gillen, Kellon Lindsey, Dante Nori. So he is still younger than 5 of the 8 HS hitters who were drafted a full calendar year after him. He is very young.

 

His batted ball profile has (current) flaws, but to pretend like this means that he has only a miniscule likelihood of making the MLB is silly. His current profile looks very similar to Trevor Story, who obviously had significant MLB success for a period of time.

[Olerud363]

No, I'm not thinking about it the wrong way.

 

Most players at that age/level don't have the raw tools to ever even make the MLB. So if they have a 30% K-rate in A-ball, it is likely because they outright suck. Why would I care about comparing Nimmala to those players? He doesn't belong in that "bucket".

 

The players who can "turn around" or succeed with defects like a high K-rate in the low minors are those with elite tools. Nimmala is a SS with 60 or 70 grade power upside and above-average current EV's. You will find that most if not all of the successful MLB hitters who were striking out a lot in the low minors will fit some variant of that type of profile.

 

Most of Nimmala's issue right now is pitch recognition, which you would expect to naturally improve as he sees more pitches. Here is a fun fact: Nimmala is YOUNGER than each of the following 1st round HS hitters who were just selected in the 2024 Draft: Bryce Rainer, PJ Morlando, Theo Gillen, Kellon Lindsey, Dante Nori. So he is still younger than 5 of the 8 HS hitters who were drafted a full calendar year after him. He is very young.

 

His batted ball profile has (current) flaws, but to pretend like this means that he has only a miniscule likelihood of making the MLB is silly. His current profile looks very similar to Trevor Story, who obviously had significant MLB success for a period of time.

 

So what bucket do you put him in? Do you put him in a bucket with Trevor Story? Or with Travis Snider? Or Jared Kelenick? Or all 3 are in his bucket?

 

If you want to get enough sample size to make a valid bucket you need 3 types

 

1. Stars

2. Guys like Travis Snider and Kelenik who made it but not really were that great.

3. Guys who repeated double A a couple times and work at a car dealership now (who no one even remembers at all)

 

OK. That isn't really valid either because you can't start with the outcomes, you need to identify the groups based on some stat centered around Nimalla so Nimalla is average of the group, and do a database search for last 25 years of minor league players, list them.

 

However if you aren't going to database search, just start with outcomes but try to think of different ones, like Star/Scrub/Car dealership worker, so you get a fair assessment.

[metafour]

So what bucket do you put him in? Do you put him in a bucket with Trevor Story? Or with Travis Snider? Or Jared Kelenick? Or all 3 are in his bucket?

 

If you want to get enough sample size to make a valid bucket you need 3 types

 

1. Stars

2. Guys like Travis Snider and Kelenik who made it but not really were that great.

3. Guys who repeated double A a couple times and work at a car dealership now (who no one even remembers at all)

 

OK. That isn't really valid either because you can't start with the outcomes, you need to identify the groups based on some stat centered around Nimalla so Nimalla is average of the group, and do a database search for last 25 years of minor league players, list them.

 

However if you aren't going to database search, just start with outcomes but try to think of different ones, like Star/Scrub/Car dealership worker, so you get a fair assessment.

 

Pointless post is pointless.

 

He is 18 years old and in A-ball. Of course that means that there is an outcome where he doesn't even make the MLB. I never said that he was guaranteed to be an MLB star - any player who is still only in A ball is obviously going to have a wide range of potential outcomes. The original post by Laika that I was responding to made the claim that his K-rate meant that his chance was "puny" - which simply isn't true at all, given the fact that I can name quite a few current MLB stars who struck out a lot at similar ages/levels. The one thing they all have in common is that they have elite power/bat-speed/etc. Laika then shifted to the argument that these guys with high K-rates must have had better batted-ball profiles. Some of them did, but I can also point you to Marcell Ozuna for example:

 

Age 19 @ Low-A:

32.1% K-rate, .289 ISO, 0.71 GB/FB, 22.0% IFFB%

 

Age 18 Nimmala @ A-ball:

31.9% K-rate, .239 ISO, 0.67 GB/FB, 25.3% IFFB%

 

Ozuna's GB/FB rate was 0.51, 0.77, and 0.71 over his first 3 pro seasons in the low minors before it started improving, so the idea that an 18 year old is doomed to the same batted ball profile for the remainder of his career is simply not true.

 

And again, a pretty important fact here is that Nimmala is playing SS, and there is no indication yet that he wont continue to play SS. A legitimate SS with huge power has considerably more leeway than most hitters, which would increase Nimmala's odds in comparison to "most" high-strikeout low minors hitters. Paul DeJong is in his 8th MLB season as a high strikeout, low BA, high FB% SS...because he can crank out HR's and play defense.

 

Here is another example:

 

Age 21 Brent Rooker in High-A:

29.0% K-rate, .273 ISO, 0.82 GB/FB, 10.3% IFFB%

 

Brent Rooker went on to strike out at a putrid 34.7% rate in AAA at age 24. How the hell is that guy a successful MLB hitter with a K-rate that poor?

 

 

By the way, Nimmala had another very Nimmala-esque game this morning:

 

2 for 4, HR (#16), 2B, 2 K

 

[Pendleton]

Pointless post is pointless.

 

He is 18 years old and in A-ball. Of course that means that there is an outcome where he doesn't even make the MLB. I never said that he was guaranteed to be an MLB star - any player who is still only in A ball is obviously going to have a wide range of potential outcomes. The original post by Laika that I was responding to made the claim that his K-rate meant that his chance was "puny" - which simply isn't true at all, given the fact that I can name quite a few current MLB stars who struck out a lot at similar ages/levels. The one thing they all have in common is that they have elite power/bat-speed/etc. Laika then shifted to the argument that these guys with high K-rates must have had better batted-ball profiles. Some of them did, but I can also point you to Marcell Ozuna for example:

 

Age 19 @ Low-A:

32.1% K-rate, .289 ISO, 0.71 GB/FB, 22.0% IFFB%

 

Age 18 Nimmala @ A-ball:

31.9% K-rate, .239 ISO, 0.67 GB/FB, 25.3% IFFB%

 

Ozuna's GB/FB rate was 0.51, 0.77, and 0.71 over his first 3 pro seasons in the low minors before it started improving, so the idea that an 18 year old is doomed to the same batted ball profile for the remainder of his career is simply not true.

 

And again, a pretty important fact here is that Nimmala is playing SS, and there is no indication yet that he wont continue to play SS. A legitimate SS with huge power has considerably more leeway than most hitters, which would increase Nimmala's odds in comparison to "most" high-strikeout low minors hitters. Paul DeJong is in his 8th MLB season as a high strikeout, low BA, high FB% SS...because he can crank out HR's and play defense.

 

Here is another example:

 

Age 21 Brent Rooker in High-A:

29.0% K-rate, .273 ISO, 0.82 GB/FB, 10.3% IFFB%

 

Brent Rooker went on to strike out at a putrid 34.7% rate in AAA at age 24. How the hell is that guy a successful MLB hitter with a K-rate that poor?

 

 

By the way, Nimmala had another very Nimmala-esque game this morning:

 

2 for 4, HR (#16), 2B, 2 K

 

 

Rooker made a huge adjustment to his swing prior to his breakout last year, significantly shortened his path to the ball, it can easily be seen by video comparison.

[metafour]

Rooker made a huge adjustment to his swing prior to his breakout last year, significantly shortened his path to the ball, it can easily be seen by video comparison.

 

Oh wow, so a talented hitter (1st round pick) managed to find a way to improve?

[Pendleton]

Oh wow, so a talented hitter (1st round pick) managed to find a way to improve?

 

Yeah but in his age 28 season after basically first becoming a flop and being given up on by the team that drafted him (plus two others).

 

But anyway, my point was that Rooker is a very unique case of a hitter who was far below league average until basically reinventing himself in his late 20s. I don't know if his minor league numbers have much value for comparison in the context you are using them, as that version of Rooker went on to flop in the MLB.

 

Should add that I'm not disagreeing at all with your general thesis here, I'm very intrigued by what Nimmala has shown.

[John_Havok]

All of this back and forth can pretty be summed up as:

 

If there's a skillset that could still succeed despite obvious flaws at 18 years old, it would be Nimmala's. Doesn't mean he will of course but...

[hanton]

Jackson Chourio grand salami. he's 20 years old!

[hanton]

...gotta start watching more brewer games

[Brownie19]

I'm glad we avoided Rhys Hoskins this offseason. He's really struggled to regain his previous form.

[hanton]

beautiful swing, notice that someone is soft tossing from the side which is a good drill if you don't have access to an L screen

 

[AMS528]

Ohtani has 3 stolen bases today. Up to 46 along with his 44 HR's. Has also only been caught four times.

 

50/50 is well within sight now. Really just a question of the HRs I think.

[connorp]

Ohtani has 3 stolen bases today. Up to 46 along with his 44 HR's. Has also only been caught four times.

 

50/50 is well within sight now. Really just a question of the HRs I think.

 

Wow. I knew the totals but didn’t know that efficiency

[jaysblue]

I'm glad we avoided Rhys Hoskins this offseason. He's really struggled to regain his previous form.

 

Yeah he hasn't looked good at all this season, but his 23 HR's and 70 RBI would rank second on this team. Not sure if he can ever recapture his 2022 form.

 

I guess he accepts the player option since I doubt he gets more than the $17M AAV he gets next season.

 

In hindsight, glad the Jays avoided signing him to the two years, since they likely would be on the hook for $17M next season, which would clog up the payroll. He was a bounce back candidate that didn't pan out.

[Stangstag]

Yeah he hasn't looked good at all this season, but his 23 HR's and 70 RBI would rank second on this team. Not sure if he can ever recapture his 2022 form.

 

I guess he accepts the player option since I doubt he gets more than the $17M AAV he gets next season.

 

In hindsight, glad the Jays avoided signing him to the two years, since they likely would be on the hook for $17M next season, which would clog up the payroll. He was a bounce back candidate that didn't pan out.

 

He looked really good for through the first 2 months of the season, numbers took a nosedive starting in June. He’s been up and down. Kinda like Turner I guess. Though he undeniably has more power.

 

Could see him finishing with a strong September to bring his numbers back up to something more respectable

[AMS528]

Wow. I knew the totals but didn’t know that efficiency

 

Just decided over the winter that if he couldn't pitch he may as well become the leagues most effective base stealer.

[Ray]

What would you guess Jarren Duran’s WAR to be this season without looking?

 

5 WAR? 6 WAR? 7 WAR?

 

He’s been worth 8.7 bWAR so far. Absolutely nuts.

[jaysblue]

He looked really good for through the first 2 months of the season, numbers took a nosedive starting in June. He’s been up and down. Kinda like Turner I guess. Though he undeniably has more power.

 

Could see him finishing with a strong September to bring his numbers back up to something more respectable

 

Yeah I was shocked to see how bad his numbers were: 97 wRC+ and a -0.1 WAR. Career wise he has always been a 120 wRC+ or so and around 2 WAR.

 

His first two months he was pretty solid I remember, but yeah his numbers took a nosedive. If he has a hot September, still has some time to make his numbers more respectable when all is said and done.

 

If the Jays had signed him to a 1-year-deal last offseason, would have been okay with that and he would have been offered more power than Turner, which is what this lineup needed. He was a strong bounce back candidate coming off an injury. In hindsight, glad they avoided signing him, especially since it would have required a 2-year deal where he likely now picks up his player option.

[BTS]

He looked really good for through the first 2 months of the season, numbers took a nosedive starting in June. He’s been up and down. Kinda like Turner I guess. Though he undeniably has more power.

 

Could see him finishing with a strong September to bring his numbers back up to something more respectable

 

He was on a heater, then hit the IL with a hamstring strain and hasn't really found a consistent groove since.

[BTS]

This is pretty wild

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/i-hope-your-teams-big-deadline-acquisition-lasted-more-than-30-days/

 

Only 26 of the 44 major league pitchers traded to contenders in July are still on the active rosters of the teams that acquired them.

[Brownie19]

Yeah he hasn't looked good at all this season, but his 23 HR's and 70 RBI would rank second on this team. Not sure if he can ever recapture his 2022 form.

 

I guess he accepts the player option since I doubt he gets more than the $17M AAV he gets next season.

 

In hindsight, glad the Jays avoided signing him to the two years, since they likely would be on the hook for $17M next season, which would clog up the payroll. He was a bounce back candidate that didn't pan out.

 

I think he can actually get $21M next year because they have a mutual option for 2026 with a $4M buyout. His counting stats look nice, but counting stats don't tell you how poor of a hitter he's been this year. He was an interesting target, with a good track record, but coming off a major injury. Getting stuck with him next year for $21M was the risk that Brewers took. It's a shame for them, as they're a mid market team that's really good right now and needs to spend what available money they have to put their team over the top.

 

Hopefully he finds his grove in September, finishes strong and can produce for the Brewers in the playoffs and next year.

[Brownie19]

What would you guess Jarren Duran’s WAR to be this season without looking?

 

5 WAR? 6 WAR? 7 WAR?

 

He’s been worth 8.7 bWAR so far. Absolutely nuts.

 

6.8 fWAR - 5th best in baseball offensively. Tied with Gunner, ahead of Ohtani. Incredible season. Shades of the 2011 Jacoby Ellsbury season.

[wilko]

J-Ram closing in on a 40-40 season.

[Brownie19]

J-Ram closing in on a 40-40 season.

 

Quite an accomplishment - yet he's overshadowed by Ohtani's pursuit for 50-50, which is simply a legendary season.

 

I'm curious if Ohtani is running more this year because he doesn't have to pitch (and I suspect he is). If so, this could be his only shot at something magical like 50-50. I really hope he makes it!

[Laika]

Steamer thinks he ends up at 39/39, lol

 

Has Ohtani at 51/52

 

Judge 58 homers

[wilko]

Quite an accomplishment - yet he's overshadowed by Ohtani's pursuit for 50-50, which is simply a legendary season.

 

I'm curious if Ohtani is running more this year because he doesn't have to pitch (and I suspect he is). If so, this could be his only shot at something magical like 50-50. I really hope he makes it!

 

I wonder if he put money on himself getting 50-50.

[Laika]

Ohtani is going to end up at 7.5 WAR as a DH

 

He would almost certainly be a plus plus RF with his speed and arm. That gives him 1 more WAR on the positional adjustment alone. Then probably another 1.5 WAR (+15 runs) on defensive skill.

 

10 WAR seems light though.

 

Hmmmm.

 

Maybe his optimal role is SP/DH?