Around Baseball 2024

[Laika]

I feel the reasoning behind it on both sides is clear. I’m sorry that’s not how you would do things. One would’ve called ChadG’s original deal strange.

 

Nah, Preller is an idiot and he got conned here

[connorp]

I think most did find Green's contract to be odd and/or complicated. Why is this good for SD? If Peralta is good - he's going to opt out and leave. If he sucks, then SD is stuck with him (for up to 4 years). How is a pitcher coming off a s***** -0.5 WAR season getting a 4 year deal? I expected him to get a spring training invite to be honest. I thought SD was trying to cut payroll. Their new strategy seems to be signing lots of RP'ers.

 

TB has built a sustained run on a philosophy of trying to win 1-2 run games.

Peralta doesn’t have backend upside. If he’s good in his role, it’s not a certainty he’d walk. San Diego is a good place to be living too.

For SD, they are still trying to compete at a WC3 level at least.

I’m not saying it’s an amazing deal for anyone, or how to do things, just saying I understand what both sides were going for

[connorp]

Nah, Preller is an idiot and he got conned here

 

Jays locked into guaranteed double for a guy that may not even play at the mlb level (be any good). If that happens, I’ll bump this and ask who the dumbass is.

[BTS]

Padres just look like a incomplete team. They have a bunch of luxury pieces, but then also don't really have a 4th or 5th starter, a LF, or a CF. And they're still playing Cronenworth out of position. Their 3 bullpen acquisitions only cost like a combined 8M this year though, so it's not like that would have allowed them to fill holes.

[connorp]

Padres just look like a incomplete team. They have a bunch of luxury pieces, but then also don't really have a 4th or 5th starter, a LF, or a CF. And they're still playing Cronenworth out of position. Their 3 bullpen acquisitions only cost like a combined 8M this year though, so it's not like that would have allowed them to fill holes.

 

Understandably, it’s probably a confusing time. How you move forward is not exactly clear. There’s probably differing opinions at the top on what the best path forward is. Seems they’re just trying to make some sort of improvements, while also not making any definitive moves.

[Laika]

Jays locked into guaranteed double for a guy that may not even play at the mlb level (be any good). If that happens, I’ll bump this and ask who the dumbass is.

 

But that wouldn't... prove.... anything....

 

The Cuban is an upside play. It might work out, it might not.

 

Wandy Peralta has parts of 8 MLB seasons under his belt and he has accrued 0.3 fWAR in his whole career. He had a 5.05 FIP in 2023 and was worth negative 0.5 wins by smart WAR. He had a below average stuff+ and location+ in both 2023 and 2022.

The Padres just guaranteed him $16.5M because he had a good ERA. That is more money than he has made his entire career. He is 32.5 years old.

 

We basically know that Wandy Peralta sucks.

[connorp]

But that wouldn't... prove.... anything....

 

The Cuban is an upside play. It might work out, it might not.

 

Wandy Peralta has parts of 8 MLB seasons under his belt and he has accrued 0.3 fWAR in his whole career. He had a 5.05 FIP in 2023 and was worth negative 0.5 wins by smart WAR. He had a below average stuff+ and location+ in both 2023 and 2022.

The Padres just guaranteed him $16.5M because he had a good ERA. That is more money than he has made his entire career. He is 32.5 years old.

 

We basically know that Wandy Peralta sucks.

 

Going back from 2019, his highest ERA is 3.35. Sorry FIP doesn’t seem to capture his skill set well. Guys like that can be worth $4m, over AAAA guys you bring up and down during the year that blow your 6th-7th inning lead

[Laika]

Going back from 2019, his highest ERA is 3.35. Sorry FIP doesn’t seem to capture his skill set well. Guys like that can be worth $4m, over AAAA guys you bring up and down during the year that blow your 6th-7th inning lead

 

small sample size, bro

what was his ERA before 2019?

[connorp]

small sample size, bro

what was his ERA before 2019?

 

Weak sauce. Pitchers reinvent themselves all the time. 4.5 years his ERA has really held steady in the same range year after year.

[Terminator]

If Peralta is worth a 4 year deal then Yimi Garcia and Richards could fetch a fortune in a trade.

[connorp]

If Peralta is worth a 4 year deal then Yimi Garcia and Richards could fetch a fortune in a trade.

 

Yimi got 3/16 with the vested option. He was coming off a subpar 3 year stretch too

[BTS]

If Peralta is worth a 4 year deal then Yimi Garcia and Richards could fetch a fortune in a trade.

 

It's actually going to be interesting to see how the Jays handle their bullpen over the next few years.

 

Garcia, Mayza and Richards are free agenta after 2024

Romano, Green, Swanson, and Cabrera after 2025

 

Will be interesting if Ross throws FA money to keep the gang together, or if he'll trust himself to turn over the entire bullpen. I have a really hard time seeing Romano extened

[connorp]

I never complained on Yimi (if he’s your guy before the 8th), he was just not who you wanted in for a little while there.

But it’s usually a guy like him or a AAAA guy that’s either going to make it, or be sent down soon

[Brownie19]

It's actually going to be interesting to see how the Jays handle their bullpen over the next few years.

 

Garcia, Mayza and Richards are free agenta after 2024

Romano, Green, Swanson, and Cabrera after 2025

 

Will be interesting if Ross throws FA money to keep the gang together, or if he'll trust himself to turn over the entire bullpen. I have a really hard time seeing Romano extened

 

Luckily - there seems to be a ton of interesting arms in our upper minors, who can hopefully help replace these guys for next to nothing.

[Brownie19]

Yimi got 3/16 with the vested option. He was coming off a subpar 3 year stretch too

 

Yimi got paid because he has almost a 2 MPH jump in velo in 2021, including very good results after joining Houston. Good stuff, good projections. Nobody was considering what Yimi did in 2019.

Edited January 31, 2024 by Brownie19

[Laika]

Yimi got 3/16 with the vested option. He was coming off a subpar 3 year stretch too

 

Yeah because his stuff was good and he projected well, and the contract worked out accordingly.

 

See how this works?

 

Good stuff = good projections (Yimi)

Bad stuff = bad projections (Wandy)

 

 

I could actually buy that Wandy is a bit of a FIP beater, but maybe by 0.30 to 0.50 runs or so. If 2023 never happened I might say a high 3.7 ERA or so would be likely. But 2023 was a stinker in a lot of ways so this contract is just shockingly awful.

[connorp]

Yeah because his stuff was good and he projected well, and the contract worked out accordingly.

 

See how this works?

 

Good stuff = good projections (Yimi)

Bad stuff = bad projections (Wandy)

 

 

I could actually buy that Wandy is a bit of a FIP beater, but maybe by 0.30 to 0.50 runs or so. If 2023 never happened I might say a high 3.7 ERA or so would be likely. But 2023 was a stinker in a lot of ways so this contract is just shockingly awful.

 

More power to you. Hasn’t had an ERA over 3.35 since 2019 (pitching in the AL East last few) but extremely unlikely his ERA is under 4 this season in SD. To each their own

[Laika]

More power to you. Hasn’t had an ERA over 3.35 since 2019 (pitching in the AL East last few) but extremely unlikely his ERA is under 4 this season in SD. To each their own

 

High end projection = 3.6 ERA and 0.2 fWAR

Low end projection = 4.5 ERA and negative fWAR

 

Anything outside of that band requires extreme luck or talent change

[Terminator]

This is typical Preller ********, just on a smaller scale.

 

If he likes Wandy, and if you squint he isn't THAT bad, just sign the dude to a 1 year 6.5 million dollar deal. That would be your standard FA reliever overpay but it's only 1 year so whatever.

 

But in typical Preller fashion he gave him 4 years with opt outs to lower the AAV.

 

It just doesn't make sense to lock up a 25 man roster spot with mediocre talent like this. Preller is probably hoping he balls out and opts out of the remaining years. But he's gambling 3 years and 12 million on the 2025-2027 payroll to save 2 million this year. Dumn.

[wamco]

Luckily - there seems to be a ton of interesting arms in our upper minors, who can hopefully help replace these guys for next to nothing.

 

That would save something like 40m (quick eyeball).

 

Aaa shuttle is nice over a long season but don’t see it happening as bullpen is currently constructed. Always sorts itself out though

[Terminator]

Going to continue to pile on Preller some more so bear with me.

 

When middle relief talent like Wandy Peralta hits their arb years they are basically one year away from being non-tendered.

 

Adam Cimber put up nearly 2 RA9-WAR and a 2.42 ERA in a season and a half for us. One injury-riddled year and he gets non-tendered over an arb projection of 3.2M and then signs for 1 year 1.65 Mil with the Angels.

 

Trevor Gott seems to be in the same realm of talent as Wandy as an okay low leverage reliever. Wandy has been more consistent but Gott is coming off a better year where he put up 1 WAR and a 3.20 FIP. He was non-tendered with a 2 mil estimate and signed with the A's for 1 year and 1.5 mil.

 

Preller just gave 4 years guaranteed to Wandy when pitchers all across the league would get non-tendered after similar seasons. Dumn.

[Brownie19]

Rob Friedman (@pitchingninja) • Instagram reel

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84K likes, 394 comments - pitchingninja on January 31, 2024: "Bartolo Colón vs. His Helmet.".

 

That is the greatest stat of all time. No idea of true but let's just blindly assume it is!

[Spanky__99]

Love watching Achmed dunk on himself, hah!

[Spanky__99]

M's and Twins talking on Kepler, get in there Ross, make me happy!

[Stangstag]

M's and Twins talking on Kepler, get in there Ross, make me happy!

 

Idk man, based off what Polanco cost I dont think we’ll be involved there

[Spanky__99]

Idk man, based off what Polanco cost I dont think we’ll be involved there

 

But why?

[mphenhef]

It's actually going to be interesting to see how the Jays handle their bullpen over the next few years.

 

Garcia, Mayza and Richards are free agenta after 2024

Romano, Green, Swanson, and Cabrera after 2025

 

Will be interesting if Ross throws FA money to keep the gang together, or if he'll trust himself to turn over the entire bullpen. I have a really hard time seeing Romano extened

 

This front office hasn't drafted and developed a single effective reliever after 8 years. I wouldn't trust them to do so going forward. Honestly, to me this is one of their biggest failings as they have had to use trade and monetary assets for a position that should be easy to develop.

[Stangstag]

This front office hasn't drafted and developed a single effective reliever after 8 years. I wouldn't trust them to do so going forward. Honestly, to me this is one of their biggest failings as they have had to use trade and monetary assets for a position that should be easy to develop.

 

Its extremely puzzling that Nate Pearson hasn’t been a lockdown reliever like Bautista for the Os. He has the repertoire, the frame, the elite Velo… disappointing player.

[Laika]

This front office hasn't drafted and developed a single effective reliever after 8 years. I wouldn't trust them to do so going forward. Honestly, to me this is one of their biggest failings as they have had to use trade and monetary assets for a position that should be easy to develop.

 

I don't think this matters.

 

- Their trades for relief help have all been good, save for the Hicks deal which is a wait and see.

- The total cost of the bullpen in 2024 will only be like $30M so it's not like they have any sandbag contracts or huge contracts. Zero long term commits.

- They have developed and used some good relievers like Romano and Mayza, they just didn't draft them.

- They have drafted some good relievers or likely good relievers, they just traded some (Frasso, Winckowski)

- They have drafted many promising RP prospects that are filling in the AA and AAA levels right now. We saw Danner for a cup of coffee last year. Connor Cooke in particular looks like a possible closer.

- They would not have been prioritizing developing relievers from 2016 through like, 2019

- From the 2019 through the 2023 drafts, many pitching prospects who could be good relievers are still in the organization

- If the pen is good and not subject to expensive long term FA commitments, does it even matter?

- There are tons of MLB teams that habitually stock their bullpen through waiver claims and little trades. See TBR, SEA for example.

[wamco]

I don't think this matters.

 

- Their trades for relief help have all been good, save for the Hicks deal which is a wait and see.

- The total cost of the bullpen in 2024 will only be like $30M so it's not like they have any sandbag contracts or huge contracts. Zero long term commits.

- They have developed and used some good relievers like Romano and Mayza, they just didn't draft them.

- They have drafted some good relievers or likely good relievers, they just traded some (Frasso, Winckowski)

- They have drafted many promising RP prospects that are filling in the AA and AAA levels right now. We saw Danner for a cup of coffee last year. Connor Cooke in particular looks like a possible closer.

- They would not have been prioritizing developing relievers from 2016 through like, 2019

- From the 2019 through the 2023 drafts, many pitching prospects who could be good relievers are still in the organization

- If the pen is good and not subject to expensive long term FA commitments, does it even matter?

- There are tons of MLB teams that habitually stock their bullpen through waiver claims and little trades. See TBR, SEA for example.

 

Well there are many ways to view producing no mlb bullpen arms in 8 years and this is one of them