2023 MLB Postseason Thread

[BigCecil]

The Astros it seems have had the same f***ing team for 7 years. They’re like the Chiefs of the NFL. Tough to root for them

 

"It seems". But HOU has made the ALCS 7 years in a row cycling out core parts Correa, Cole and Springer. They just replaced them with the likes of Pena and Tucker; acquiring and then extending Alvarez etc.

[Olerud363]

LetÂ’s not gaslight here. You guys are the ones that donÂ’t understand complex thinking.

 

You canÂ’t accept thereÂ’s certain dynamics and weighs that change from the regular season to post season. The goal is to increase your chances of getting to the WS, improving your odds. Of course you canÂ’t do anything to get to 100%. Guys like Acuna will have a bad series. No one is suggesting thereÂ’s not randomness.

 

You are using the term complex thinking wrong.

 

Playoff are not more complex than regular season. A system's complexity is reflected by the number of variables in the system, and in fact the number of variables in the 'playoffs' is less than regular season (less players are used for one).

 

What could make the playoffs different are non-linearities, which I think is what you are trying to argue.

 

A non-linearity would be be if Bryce Harpers OPS goes from .900 to .800 in the playoffs, but Cavan Biggios goes from .700 to .400.

 

Most of us kind of think there are not extreme non-linearities in the playoffs, at least not to the extent you are arguing.

 

Those of us who have been around a long time remember Ed Sprague hitting a big homerun and Pat Borders winning the World Series MVP. If there is some linearity in the playoffs why did it not affect Borders? Maybe this non-linearity is new and wasn't there in 1992. I don't know.

[Brownie19]

He's talking about Baldilocks, meat.

 

Thank you Spanky. This is correct - referring to connorp and his dump truck pile of BS he's spewing all over this board. It's horrendous.

[connorp]

You are using the term complex thinking wrong.

 

Playoff are not more complex than regular season. A system's complexity is reflected by the number of variables in the system, and in fact the number of variables in the 'playoffs' is less than regular season (less players are used for one).

 

What could make the playoffs different are non-linearities, which I think is what you are trying to argue.

 

A non-linearity would be be if Bryce Harpers OPS goes from .900 to .800 in the playoffs, but Cavan Biggios goes from .700 to .400.

 

Most of us kind of think there are not extreme non-linearities in the playoffs, at least not to the extent you are arguing.

 

Those of us who have been around a long time remember Ed Sprague hitting a big homerun and Pat Borders winning the World Series MVP. If there is some linearity in the playoffs why did it not affect Borders? Maybe this non-linearity is new and wasn't there in 1992. I don't know.

 

What facts we do know is that run scoring is suppressed about 16% in the playoffs going back the last couple decades, and that’s pretty consistent. In the world of wRC+, 16% is not insignificant. It’s a tougher hitting environment; fact.

 

There’s all sorts of ways to prove theories like walk rates going down for hitters with low slugging %. Really I could be owned by facts but it’s more like “yur dumb”. God forbid you guys entertain even simple deviations to the formulas you are slaves to

[Laika]

What facts we do know is that run scoring is suppressed about 16% in the playoffs going back the last couple decades, and that’s pretty consistent. In the world of wRC+, 16% is not insignificant. It’s a tougher hitting environment; fact.

 

There’s all sorts of ways to prove theories like walk rates going down for hitters with low slugging %. Really I could be owned by facts but it’s more like “yur dumb”. God forbid you guys entertain even simple deviations to the formulas you are slaves to

 

do you even know what non-linearity means?

[Jimcanuck]

What facts we do know is that run scoring is suppressed about 16% in the playoffs going back the last couple decades, and that’s pretty consistent. In the world of wRC+, 16% is not insignificant. It’s a tougher hitting environment; fact.

 

There’s all sorts of ways to prove theories like walk rates going down for hitters with low slugging %. Really I could be owned by facts but it’s more like “yur dumb”. God forbid you guys entertain even simple deviations to the formulas you are slaves to

 

Of course run scoring is lower in the playoffs. Teams like Oakland don't make the playoffs.

[Brownie19]

Ok. You unimaginative turtles win

 

Thank god - now STFU for a bit man.

[Jimcanuck]

It’s more likely a really good fielder will make an error than it is Player A doesn’t get to a ball Player B would

 

WTF is this

[Stangstag]

WTF is this

 

Connor logic

[BTS]

You are using the term complex thinking wrong.

 

Playoff are not more complex than regular season. A system's complexity is reflected by the number of variables in the system, and in fact the number of variables in the 'playoffs' is less than regular season (less players are used for one).

 

What could make the playoffs different are non-linearities, which I think is what you are trying to argue.

 

A non-linearity would be be if Bryce Harpers OPS goes from .900 to .800 in the playoffs, but Cavan Biggios goes from .700 to .400.

 

Most of us kind of think there are not extreme non-linearities in the playoffs, at least not to the extent you are arguing.

 

Those of us who have been around a long time remember Ed Sprague hitting a big homerun and Pat Borders winning the World Series MVP. If there is some linearity in the playoffs why did it not affect Borders? Maybe this non-linearity is new and wasn't there in 1992. I don't know.

 

I don't remember what thread we were talking about John Means in, but his arb projection came in a hair under 6M. Close to a 100% raise, but probably low enough that he's tendered a contract, unless the elbow injury that held him out of the playoffs means his arm is just finished.

[connorp]

Of course run scoring is lower in the playoffs. Teams like Oakland don't make the playoffs.

 

Walk me through the jimc logic here

 

If Oakland made it, that would be reason for scoring to go down/stay same. If they didn’t make it, by logic it would rise

[Terminator]

 

Top 5 records in baseball went a combined 1-13 in the playoffs this year.

 

And there are those on the board who say randomness doesn't play much of a factor in the playoffs lol

[connorp]

Reading my own research now because there aren’t many people here that will think beyond thing that they’re spoon fed…

 

Since the Wild Card era, wRC+ is down 19 points from regular season to playoffs. Pretty huge. Definitely a different game. Diving into it more now.

[connorp]

Alex Eisner on Fangraphs I’m reading his findings yesterday. He was interesting enough to take an initial dive into the nerd stuff.

[Terminator]

Reading my own research now because there aren’t many people here that will think beyond thing that they’re spoon fed…

 

Since the Wild Card era, wRC+ is down 19 points from regular season to playoffs. Pretty huge. Definitely a different game. Diving into it more now.

 

I can buy that. #4 and #5 starting pitchers lose their spots in the rotation. The long relievers and other bottom of the barrel relievers also don't throw as much.

[connorp]

I can buy that. #4 and #5 starting pitchers lose their spots in the rotation. The long relievers and other bottom of the barrel relievers also don't throw as much.

 

He summarizes it by saying “its tough to sift through, but there’s truth to that maxim the playoffs are a different beast from the regular season”

 

From his research you’d need to dive deeper into what part of run scoring was impacted the most, you could test my theories that the players that had say a wRC+ of 100 would see a sharper decline than the guys that were 120 wRC+ say

[connorp]

 

Top 5 records in baseball went a combined 1-13 in the playoffs this year.

 

And there are those on the board who say randomness doesn't play much of a factor in the playoffs lol

 

I mean, isn’t this like quoting Pitching wins lol. Shouldn’t you be using something like xWPCT

[Terminator]

I mean, isn’t this like quoting Pitching wins lol. Shouldn’t you be using something like xWPCT

 

You're actually close to getting this connorp!

 

Yes, it is somewhat analogous to a mostly garbage stat like pitcher wins which is the entire point! Because just like pitcher wins, these playoff records don't actually tell us a whole lot.

 

You suggested that I use an x-Stat instead and that would probably give us a better picture of what is happening! Good job! But x-stats don't count (and in a small sample size don't mean much anyway) so all we can use are the actual stats.

 

So anyone trying to rationalize this all by explaining that the "D-Bags exciting young core" or their "playoff aces" are the reason why the mediocre teams are winning and the good teams are losing is ignoring the fact that random crap is happening which is leading to these results.

[Terminator]

Pat Borders was the 1992 World Series MVP. There's a good example of randomness for everyone.

[connorp]

You're actually close to getting this connorp!

 

Yes, it is somewhat analogous to a mostly garbage stat like pitcher wins which is the entire point! Because just like pitcher wins, these playoff records don't actually tell us a whole lot.

 

You suggested that I use an x-Stat instead and that would probably give us a better picture of what is happening! Good job! But x-stats don't count (and in a small sample size don't mean much anyway) so all we can use are the actual stats.

 

So anyone trying to rationalize this all by explaining that the "D-Bags exciting young core" or their "playoff aces" are the reason why the mediocre teams are winning and the good teams are losing is ignoring the fact that random crap is happening which is leading to these results.

 

The point of proving certain theories is not to be able to guarantee a result, or eliminate randomness. The questions here, has always been, is ideal roster construction different come playoff time than it is the regular season.

 

You guys are very simple minded and not like the guy that just published this article yesterday on FG. Cyborg and North were ones to develop and test their own theories as well. That’s why they graduated to bigger and better things.

 

The fact that hitters see a 19 point drop wRC+ is proof that it’s a completely different environment. Admittedly what I’m spouting are just theories, but I clearly have a much firmer understating of the fact that regular season and playoff baseball are not the same.

[Laika]

The point of proving certain theories is not to be able to guarantee a result, or eliminate randomness. The questions here, has always been, is ideal roster construction different come playoff time than it is the regular season.

 

You guys are very simple minded and not like the guy that just published this article yesterday on FG. Cyborg and North were ones to develop and test their own theories as well. That’s why they graduated to bigger and better things.

 

The fact that hitters see a 19 point drop wRC+ is proof that it’s a completely different environment. Admittedly what I’m spouting are just theories, but I clearly have a much firmer understating of the fact that regular season and playoff baseball are not the same.

 

Nobody said they are the same!

 

The important question is whether the two different game environments have a non-linear impact on different player archetypes.

 

One analogy would be say you trying to get laid in Manhattan vs Tuscaloosa. Very different dating environments but you are still striking out in both places, 100% of the time. Some dude who is a solid Alabama 7 might wheel in Tuscaloosa but never touch a girl in New York. So you suck everywhere but he only sucks in Manhattan.

 

We already know that elite relievers can be more valuable in the playoffs, because they can have a bigger impact; managers will let them pitch every game, or pitch 2 innings, and generally pitch MORE than they do in the regular season.

 

We already know that elite SP can be more valuable in the playoffs because they can start more frequently.

 

There is some continued discussion on whether or not high contact hitters are more valuable in the playoffs. This is probably because there is a higher portion of elite pitching, so being able to just put the ball in play and not strikeout could be worth something. I have heard some debate on this. Some nerds agree, some do not.

[Terminator]

One analogy would be say you trying to get laid in Manhattan vs Tuscaloosa. Very different dating environments but you are still striking out in both places, 100% of the time. Some dude who is a solid Alabama 7 might wheel in Tuscaloosa but never touch a girl in New York. So you suck everywhere but he only sucks in Manhattan.

 

Lol

[Brownie19]

Nobody said they are the same!

 

The important question is whether the two different game environments have a non-linear impact on different player archetypes.

 

One analogy would be say you trying to get laid in Manhattan vs Tuscaloosa. Very different dating environments but you are still striking out in both places, 100% of the time. Some dude who is a solid Alabama 7 might wheel in Tuscaloosa but never touch a girl in New York. So you suck everywhere but he only sucks in Manhattan.

 

We already know that elite relievers can be more valuable in the playoffs, because they can have a bigger impact; managers will let them pitch every game, or pitch 2 innings, and generally pitch MORE than they do in the regular season.

 

We already know that elite SP can be more valuable in the playoffs because they can start more frequently.

 

There is some continued discussion on whether or not high contact hitters are more valuable in the playoffs. This is probably because there is a higher portion of elite pitching, so being able to just put the ball in play and not strikeout could be worth something. I have heard some debate on this. Some nerds agree, some do not.

 

This was all the rage in 2015. KC won because they aren't 3 true outcome hitters and they don't rely on the home run and we heard about this for the following 4-5 years. Now people seem to be back on the train that power and home run hitters rule in the playoffs because the pitching is too good to rely on several hits in a row.

[connorp]

Well I’ll die on a hill that you’ll see BB% drop for players like Biggio, be the same/rise for the big hitters. I don’t think the 19 point drop would be uniform between Harper/Biggio types.

 

That DOES NOT mean Biggio might not run into a HR. I understand that concept is baffling

[connorp]

Maybe I should email the FG guy. Tell him to split the 192 hitters into different groups

[Brownie19]

The point of proving certain theories is not to be able to guarantee a result, or eliminate randomness. The questions here, has always been, is ideal roster construction different come playoff time than it is the regular season.

 

You guys are very simple minded and not like the guy that just published this article yesterday on FG. Cyborg and North were ones to develop and test their own theories as well. That’s why they graduated to bigger and better things.

 

The fact that hitters see a 19 point drop wRC+ is proof that it’s a completely different environment. Admittedly what I’m spouting are just theories, but I clearly have a much firmer understating of the fact that regular season and playoff baseball are not the same.

 

I thought the unimaginative turtles won? We all understand that playoff baseball is a lot different than the regular season man. You may find some stats that suggest certain types of players, or certain skill sets gives you an advantage during the playoffs - I think the issue is that playoff baseball is so short, that the results rarely normalize because everything is a SSS - so even if you're built to "win in the playoffs" slightly better than your opponent, the advantage is never very big. I doubt you'll ever be able to prove that "teams that build their team like X, win more often than not in the playoffs".

 

Most aren't unimaginative turtles - we understand most of this. It's your inability to articulate your point that is particularly painful.

[BTS]

Most aren't unimaginative turtles - we understand most of this. It's your inability to articulate your point that is particularly painful.

 

Also the unwarranted surety and confidence with which it was delivered, combined with the general abrasiveness towards anyone pushing back.

[BigCecil]

Seeing the videos today of Arcia and Acuna Jr from their dugout interacting with the Phillies fans motioning for them to be quiet and gesturing back at them, shows just how in their heads the fans got.

 

The worst thing the players could do is acknowledge to those fans that they were getting to them. Its like blood in the water for a shark. Especially in Philly.

[John_Havok]

I'm ashamed that I understand the point connorp is trying to make....terribly.

[connorp]

I'm ashamed that I understand the point connorp is trying to make....terribly.

 

I’ll take what I can get.