General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Spanky99]

Spanky this team sucks ass what are you talking about

 

I agree with what most was said, but some of these posts read like we're getting contracted by another tri-state city or something. It's not that dire to me, that's what I'm talking about.

[Jimcanuck]

I agree with what most was said, but some of these posts read like we're getting contracted by another tri-state city or something. It's not that dire to me, that's what I'm talking about.

 

The state of the Bleu Jays franchise is bad. Bottom 5 bad.

 

I am pulling my support for Shatkins. They've done enough damage.

[Spanky99]

The state of the Bleu Jays franchise is bad. Bottom 5 bad.

 

I am pulling my support for Shatkins. They've done enough damage.

 

K....

[Terminator]

Ok let's not get too carried away here. It ain't bottom 5 bad lol.

 

After we dump 50M into the team we will probably have a wild card contender.

 

But that's not great considering:

(1) the payroll involved to get there (but the fact we can spend that much to begin with is a plus)

(2) the fact that it's just a wild card contender and not a division contender, and

(3) the state of the farm system (which matters but is incredibly overrated by this board).

 

But we aren't even close to a bottom feeder franchise. Things are just very mid right now.

[Jimcanuck]

Ok let's not get too carried away here. It ain't bottom 5 bad lol.

 

After we dump 50M into the team we will probably have a wild card contender.

 

But that's not great considering:

(1) the payroll involved to get there (but the fact we can spend that much to begin with is a plus)

(2) the fact that it's just a wild card contender and not a division contender, and

(3) the state of the farm system (which matters but is incredibly overrated by this board).

 

But we aren't even close to a bottom feeder franchise. Things are just very mid right now.

 

Sure like pretty much every other team in MLB, they could squeak in and get WC3 in 2025. Long odds IMO.

 

You've gone from crapping on the Jays every chance you get to being one of the strongest supporters on here.

Edited October 14, 2024 by Jimcanuck

[Terminator]

Sure like pretty much every other team in MLB, they could squeak in and get WC3 in 2025. Long odds IMO.

 

We'll see how the offseason shakes out. I think the Fangraphs playoff odds will give them something close to 50% playoff odds. Nothing to brag about at all but not as dire as a bottom 5 team in MLB.

 

You've gone from crapping on the Jays every chance you get to being one of the strongest supporters on here.

 

I don't know when I've ever been crapping on the Jays every chance I get or what you mean when you say I'm the strongest supporter. I want Ross to be fired after all and am ambivalent on Shapiro.

 

That said, a franchise's health isn't tied directly to the GM. He can be replaced (and probably will be if he doesn't have a good year) and other things also matter greatly. The Jays have pretty strong marks when it comes to ownership, market size, the fanbase, etc. that prevent it from being a bottom five franchise.

[glory]

After we dump 50M into the team we will probably have a wild card contender.

 

Last year they dumped $50m into KK, IKF, Turner, Green, Rodriguez, and Vogelbach. I wouldn't assume a wild card contender is going to come out of spending money.

[Jimcanuck]

Nothing to brag about at all but not as dire as a bottom 5 team in MLB.

 

To be clear, I said bottom 5 franchise, not bottom 5 team.

 

s*** farm, a team somewhere between s*** and mediocre.

[Terminator]

To be clear, I said bottom 5 franchise, not bottom 5 team.

 

s*** farm, a team somewhere between s*** and mediocre.

 

Yeah I got ya but a bottom five franchise is even less accurate.

[Barrelsandbombs]

Fangraphs, Cots and Spotrac all updated their payroll projections recently, factoring in pre-arb and arb salary estimates now. If the Jays opening day CBT payroll in 2025 is the same as 2023 and 2024 at around $250 million, here's how much the Jays should have to spend in the offseason according to each site:

 

Fangraphs: $37 million (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/blue-jays?season=2025)

Cots: $46 million (https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/toronto-blue-jays/)

Spotrac: $45 million (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/overview/_/year/2025)

[jaysblue]

Jays might have to get creative on the trade market in order to make the improvements necessary.

 

$45-$50M isn't a lot in today's market and the Jays need to spend it wisely if that's all they have available to spend this offseason.

 

Team needs:

- 2 power bats

- another mid-rotation SP

- a third baseman

- two high leverage BP arms

- backup catcher

 

Not sure they can acquire all those pieces via free agency. Atkins might have to get creative on the trade market as well.

[Spanky99]

Jays might have to get creative on the trade market in order to make the improvements necessary.

 

$45-$50M isn't a lot in today's market and the Jays need to spend it wisely if that's all they have available to spend this offseason.

 

Team needs:

- 2 power bats

- another mid-rotation SP

- a third baseman

- two high leverage BP arms

- backup catcher

 

Not sure they can acquire all those pieces via free agency. Atkins might have to get creative on the trade market as well.

 

lol... again, they're not acquiring all that for 50M.

[jaysblue]

lol... again, they're not acquiring all that for 50M.

 

I know I just said that it would be tough lol.

 

Those are all the areas on the 26-man roster they need to add to or make upgrades though. So yeah might have to get creative via the trade market.

[Spanky99]

I know I just said that it would be tough lol.

 

Those are all the areas on the 26-man roster they need to add to or make upgrades though. So yeah might have to get creative via the trade market.

 

Or they spend big.

[Terminator]

Jays might have to get creative on the trade market in order to make the improvements necessary.

 

$45-$50M isn't a lot in today's market and the Jays need to spend it wisely if that's all they have available to spend this offseason.

 

Team needs:

- 2 power bats

- another mid-rotation SP

- a third baseman

- two high leverage BP arms

- backup catcher

 

Not sure they can acquire all those pieces via free agency. Atkins might have to get creative on the trade market as well.

 

Yeah those are definitely the needs. Agree that it will be difficult to fill all of them via FA. But in order to be wild card contenders I don't think we would have to. Fill most of them in a decent way and that should be good enough.

 

In order to be division contenders we'd have to fill them all though.

[L54]

Ya saying they need to fill all those holes is in a perfect world scenario. There is zero chance of doing that on 50M and unlikely to do it all in one offseason

 

Probably more like

 

One legit power source, another upside add offensively

A lower end SP 3/4

Ernie Clement/Addison Barger

One good BP arm, one RP5 type

Reese McGuire or whoever

[Laika]

The state of the french fries is not bottom 5 bad but it's definitely not top 15 good either

 

Resources: 8/10

Prospects: 2/10

2025 chances: 6/10

2025 to 2028 chances: 3/10

Front office talent: 5/10

Fanbase/support: 6/10

[jaysblue]

Ya saying they need to fill all those holes is in a perfect world scenario. There is zero chance of doing that on 50M and unlikely to do it all in one offseason

 

Probably more like

 

One legit power source, another upside add offensively

A lower end SP 3/4

Ernie Clement/Addison Barger

One good BP arm, one RP5 type

Reese McGuire or whoever

 

Wonder if they can swing a trade for a power bat or a #3/4 SP with some years of control. They likely can only afford one power bat via free agency. Even a lower tier guy like O'Neill or Pederson minimum would cost around $15M AAV to sign here on a one or two-year deal.

 

As for a starter, wonder what Bieber would cost on a one or two-year deal? Worth taking a gamble and the Jays have arms to fill out the rotation until he's ready.

 

Some cheap SP options who likely could sign for one-year and under $10M would be Matt Boyd or Spencer Turnbull. Wouldn't be bad cheap options since most veteran FA arms are likely to get 3 or 4 year deals and would cost $15M-20M AVV per season. Walker Buehler would be interesting as well as a reclamation project if he signed for under $10M. But he likely signs with a team in a pitcher friendly park where he can build back some value.

 

Yeah they likely can roll with Clement/Barger at 3B to save some money, with Vladdy getting some time in at the hot corner as well.

 

They likely can sign one good BP arm and then aim for a upside play or bounce back candidate with the second BP arm.

 

Reese McGuire or another backup that would cost only $1M should work.

[MikeM3]

Bottom 5 is close. Clear worst are Rockies and Angels so there's 3 left.

 

White Sox pitching development jumped us already with Bannister but Getz is a moron. Detroit passed us. Royals are dumb but hit Ragans for Chapman and made a couple other decent moves. Nats have Doolittle and passed us in pitching.

 

Cards are worse than us but Bloom will take over soon and pass us.

 

Definitely worse: Rockies, Angels, A's. A's just operate with such an insane handicap that it filters through everything.

 

Probably worse: Cards, Astros.

 

Dumber than us but player dev might be better: CWS, WAS, KC, Pirates.

 

I'd say we're bottom 8 to 10.

[Laika]

Bottom 5 is close. Clear worst are Rockies and Angels so there's 3 left.

 

White Sox pitching development jumped us already with Bannister but Getz is a moron. Detroit passed us. Royals are dumb but hit Ragans for Chapman and made a couple other decent moves. Nats have Doolittle and passed us in pitching.

 

Cards are worse than us but Bloom will take over soon and pass us.

 

Definitely worse: Rockies, Angels, A's. A's just operate with such an insane handicap that it filters through everything.

 

Probably worse: Cards, Astros.

 

Dumber than us but player dev might be better: CWS, WAS, KC, Pirates.

 

I'd say we're bottom 8 to 10.

 

Resources matter a lot. The Jays are probably mediocre rather than terrible in a general front office sense.

 

Like yeah, they have been completely inept at developing impact talent and pitching BUT they are smart enough to avoid bad contracts and they seem okay at other aspects of roster construction and so forth.

 

So I just don't see any argument for a team like Pittsburgh above Toronto.

 

Complete org rankings:

 

1. Dodgers

2. Yankees

3. Braves

4. Orioles

5. Padres

6. Phillies

7. Mets

8. Brewers

9. Red Sox

10. Twins

11. Rays

12. Guardians

13. Astros

14. Diamondbacks

15. Giants

16. Tigers

17. Cubs

18. Rangers

19. Blue Jays

20. Royals

21. Cardinals

22. Nationals

23. Mariners

24. Reds

25. Pirates

26. Marlins

27. Athletics

28. Angels

29. White Sox

30. Rockies

 

But yes, Toronto has no argument for being top 10 or even top 15.

Best you can say is they are in the "15-24 tier" or something like that. All of those teams are pretty fluid and have certain strengths and weaknesses.

Similar to other teams with resources and brain injuries like the Cubs and Giants.

[Brownie19]

https://champsorchumps.us/records/most-mlb-wins-since-2020

 

Since 2020, we have the 10th best winning percentage in MLB and only 6 teams have made the playoffs more often.

 

bOTtOM 5 FRanChIsE

[Stangstag]

Resources matter a lot. The Jays are probably mediocre rather than terrible in a general front office sense.

 

Like yeah, they have been completely inept at developing impact talent and pitching BUT they are smart enough to avoid bad contracts and they seem okay at other aspects of roster construction and so forth.

 

So I just don't see any argument for a team like Pittsburgh above Toronto.

 

Complete org rankings:

 

1. Dodgers

2. Yankees

3. Braves

4. Orioles

5. Padres

6. Phillies

7. Mets

8. Brewers

9. Red Sox

10. Twins

11. Rays

12. Guardians

13. Astros

14. Diamondbacks

15. Giants

16. Tigers

17. Cubs

18. Rangers

19. Blue Jays

20. Royals

21. Cardinals

22. Nationals

23. Mariners

24. Reds

25. Pirates

26. Marlins

27. Athletics

28. Angels

29. White Sox

30. Rockies

 

But yes, Toronto has no argument for being top 10 or even top 15.

Best you can say is they are in the "15-24 tier" or something like that. All of those teams are pretty fluid and have certain strengths and weaknesses.

Similar to other teams with resources and brain injuries like the Cubs and Giants.

 

Right. Ownership that’s willing to pony up cash and not meddle with the front office immediately keeps us out of bottom 10.

 

Mid-tier is completely fair Imo.

[glory]

Right. Ownership that’s willing to pony up cash and not meddle with the front office immediately keeps us out of bottom 10.

 

Mid-tier is completely fair Imo.

 

Ownership, payroll, and the fact that the one thing Atkins has done at a solid-good level (until last off season) is MLB signings/trades is what keeps the Jays from being in the bottom tier. Otherwise the player development side alone would drag them down big time. They aren't Rockies/Angels bad in that area, but closer to them than to the middle. The fact that they've been able to spend to compensate for the lack of player development is huge, and to their credit they've done reasonably well in that area prior to KK/JT/IKF/Vogelbach/Green. The issue is sustainability. As we saw in 2024, being able to outspend your mistakes/limitations doesn't have a long shelf life.

[Terminator]

Bottom 5 is close. Clear worst are Rockies and Angels so there's 3 left.

 

White Sox pitching development jumped us already with Bannister but Getz is a moron. Detroit passed us. Royals are dumb but hit Ragans for Chapman and made a couple other decent moves. Nats have Doolittle and passed us in pitching.

 

Cards are worse than us but Bloom will take over soon and pass us.

 

Definitely worse: Rockies, Angels, A's. A's just operate with such an insane handicap that it filters through everything.

 

Probably worse: Cards, Astros.

 

Dumber than us but player dev might be better: CWS, WAS, KC, Pirates.

 

I'd say we're bottom 8 to 10.

 

Calling the Astros and Cardinals bottom tier franchises is certainly a take.

[Laika]

Ownership, payroll, and the fact that the one thing Atkins has done at a solid-good level (until last off season) is MLB signings/trades is what keeps the Jays from being in the bottom tier. Otherwise the player development side alone would drag them down big time. They aren't Rockies/Angels bad in that area, but closer to them than to the middle. The fact that they've been able to spend to compensate for the lack of player development is huge, and to their credit they've done reasonably well in that area prior to KK/JT/IKF/Vogelbach/Green. The issue is sustainability. As we saw in 2024, being able to outspend your mistakes/limitations doesn't have a long shelf life.

 

You could argue that Toronto's developmental record has been the worst in baseball in recent years

 

The last good player Toronto graduate was who... Kirk? A 2021 rookie who has been a 2-4 WAR player? Not even really an impact player just an above average guy. Him or Manoah are the only candidates. Bowden Francis I guess as well if you want to be generous. And the AAAA bats like Horwitz if you want to still be generous.

 

The Angels have 2023 rookie Logan O'Hoppe, sneaky star Zach Neto also a 2023 rookie, and 2024 breakthrough arm Jose Soriano who looks like an actual SP but I suppose is in the "prove it" boat with Bowden Francis. But Neto is the best player mentioned by me so far, by MILES and miles. He's a rock solid franchise shortstop.

 

The Rockies have also developed an impact SS in Tovar. They also have an impact CF in Doyle. And a potential impact bounce back guy in Nolan Jones. And a closer who throws 100 in Vodnik, plus the sneaky good SP Ryan Feltner.

[Terminator]

Resources matter a lot. The Jays are probably mediocre rather than terrible in a general front office sense.

 

Like yeah, they have been completely inept at developing impact talent and pitching BUT they are smart enough to avoid bad contracts and they seem okay at other aspects of roster construction and so forth.

 

So I just don't see any argument for a team like Pittsburgh above Toronto.

 

Complete org rankings:

 

1. Dodgers

2. Yankees

3. Braves

4. Orioles

5. Padres

6. Phillies

7. Mets

8. Brewers

9. Red Sox

10. Twins

11. Rays

12. Guardians

13. Astros

14. Diamondbacks

15. Giants

16. Tigers

17. Cubs

18. Rangers

19. Blue Jays

20. Royals

21. Cardinals

22. Nationals

23. Mariners

24. Reds

25. Pirates

26. Marlins

27. Athletics

28. Angels

29. White Sox

30. Rockies

 

But yes, Toronto has no argument for being top 10 or even top 15.

Best you can say is they are in the "15-24 tier" or something like that. All of those teams are pretty fluid and have certain strengths and weaknesses.

Similar to other teams with resources and brain injuries like the Cubs and Giants.

 

I don't necessarily hate the rankings but there is barely any difference between 19 and 5 on this list.

 

The Padres went on a spending spree and have had one contract already blow up in their faces. If one or two more happens, and it will, they will be in the hurtbox.

 

I also can't really say that I'd definitively switch circumstances with any of the small market teams ahead of us. The Brewers, Twins, Rays, etc. Hell, even the Orioles. Those teams are fine now but are a bad GM hire away from supplanting everyone but the Rockies for worst franchise. On the other hand, we are a good GM away from being a Top 5 franchise.

[Stangstag]

You could argue that Toronto's developmental record has been the worst in baseball in recent years

 

The last good player Toronto graduate was who... Kirk? A 2021 rookie who has been a 2-4 WAR player? Not even really an impact player just an above average guy. Him or Manoah are the only candidates. Bowden Francis I guess as well if you want to be generous. And the AAAA bats like Horwitz if you want to still be generous.

 

The Angels have 2023 rookie Logan O'Hoppe, sneaky star Zach Neto also a 2023 rookie, and 2024 breakthrough arm Jose Soriano who looks like an actual SP but I suppose is in the "prove it" boat with Bowden Francis. But Neto is the best player mentioned by me so far, by MILES and miles. He's a rock solid franchise shortstop.

 

The Rockies have also developed an impact SS in Tovar. They also have an impact CF in Doyle. And a potential impact bounce back guy in Nolan Jones. And a closer who throws 100 in Vodnik, plus the sneaky good SP Ryan Feltner.

 

You really should be including Gab Moreno in this list too. He was fully developed when we sent him to AZ.

 

Jury is still out on Manoah, but he looked like a stud for his first 2 seasons.

[Stangstag]

 

Could’ve had Teo for 3/50.

 

Too bad our front office thinks adding a power bat is “low-hanging fruit”

[Laika]

I don't necessarily hate the rankings but there is barely any difference between 19 and 5 on this list.

 

The Padres went on a spending spree and have had one contract already blow up in their faces. If one or two more happens, and it will, they will be in the hurtbox.

 

I also can't really say that I'd definitively switch circumstances with any of the small market teams ahead of us. The Brewers, Twins, Rays, etc. Hell, even the Orioles. Those teams are fine now but are a bad GM hire away from supplanting everyone but the Rockies for worst franchise. On the other hand, we are a good GM away from being a Top 5 franchise.

 

Yeah it's pretty tight from 3 to 24 to be honest

Tighter than some would think

The Nationals are assembling a really good young core after a long rebuild and have the potential to skyrocket

The Reds have a nice core and some developmental chops, they just need more resources

The Phillies competitive window might be closing soon. Long in the tooth.

The Padres have been on the brink of looking like a has-been but they went on a run this year and connorp got a little AJP chub because of it but who knows if it lasts.

The Red Sox have spiraled between big market behemoth and inept front office periods

The Rays will never again be more than a WC team

[Brownie19]

While there's no doubt the lack of development has hurt the Jays over the past couple of season, I do wonder how typical it is for organizations to have a few "down years".

 

It wasn't that long ago that this team was packed full of young, good talent that the FO either drafted, traded for (when they were young) and/or developed. In 2022 we had:

 

Vlad

Bo

Teo

Kirk

Moreno

Jansen

Espinal (all-star)

LGJ

Manoah

Romano

Mayza

 

Plus the prospects we dealt to add players like Berrios, Chapman, etc.

 

To be fair - that's a pretty impressive list and nobody was complaining about our lack of development in 2022. But s*** does change quickly doesn't it? The lack of pitching has been painful. We were able to turn around a guy like Robbie Ray and make him a Cy Young winner, yet seemingly everyone else in the org has s*** the bed, including Manoah, who looked like a top of the rotation starter in 2022. I wonder how common it is for org's to go through lulls like this where nothing seems to go right. Even Cleveland right now. Bibee looks like their new stud, but Triston McKenzie fell off the face of the earth (after being great in 2022 like Manoah), Gavin Williams struggled this year, as did Logan Allen. The team who's been known for churning out great pitcher after great pitcher over the past decade is stuck starting the ghost of Alex Cobb in the ALCS (and Matt Boyd - but he's actually good). It happens to even the best (lucky for them, their pen is still incredible), as I do think things like injuries and some of the development side of things are somewhat out of their control, which can lead to peaks and valleys. The key is to avoid a long valley and unfortunately, the Jays are staring one right in the face. They are going to need to hit on some of the guys drafted over the past couple of years. Luckily, prospects/development can change pretty quickly.