General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[metafour]

Harper has been a consistently better hitter than Vlad, and like mentioned, bleeds less value because he can play OF (a bad defensive OF is still worth much more than a bad defensive 1B). He is also consistently better as a baserunner, even though he is still negative there.

[Laika]

Harper has been a consistently better hitter than Vlad, and like mentioned, bleeds less value because he can play OF (a bad defensive OF is still worth much more than a bad defensive 1B). He is also consistently better as a baserunner, even though he is still negative there.

 

Yeah so Harper gets more money.

But that doesn't mean Vlad doesn't deserve a big deal.

 

Harper was a very bad defender leading up to his free agency and a negative baserunner. His added athleticism helps but I don't know if it creates a massive gulf. He is also now a 1B at 31.

 

Age 20-25 wRC+

 

Harper, 137, 115, 197, 111, 155, 135

Vlad, 106, 110, 166, 133, 118, 140

 

132 wRC+ for Vlad in this sample, 21st in baseball

143 wRC+ for Harper, 9th in baseball

[AMS528]

Harper has been a consistently better hitter than Vlad, and like mentioned, bleeds less value because he can play OF (a bad defensive OF is still worth much more than a bad defensive 1B). He is also consistently better as a baserunner, even though he is still negative there.

 

We should have just tried to figure out if there was any way for Vlad to play in the OF and get some value out of his arm instead of sticking him at first where struggles all the time and never uses the one part of his defensive strength.

 

He still has average sprint speed, he's not a slow guy out there.

[Brownie19]

To be fair - the Nats/Harper situation is a good example. However - winning the WS the year Harper left greatly accelerated any mourning period the fanbase may have had. That won't be happening in Toronto.

 

I'm with Stangstag on this one. I think most of the fan base is casual and doesn't realize how pedestrian Vlad actually is as a player. Most kids who are into baseball and follow the Jays love Vlad. I think we're in for some gloomy years and trading Vlad, then rolling out some 70-80 win teams is going to have a major impact on the gate, tv ratings, etc. Of course I think long term, it may be the right thing to move on from Vlad. If we had some young hot shot prospect or new face of the team in the wings who could step right in - that would be ideal, but we don't.

 

I ultimately think they keep Vlad - whether that's right or wrong. I do hope he settles in as a 150 wRC+ type hitter over the next 5-6 seasons. The talent is obviously there and I can live with the s***** defense, base running and antics if he hits like that. Hopefully some maturity helps him be more consistent.

[Laika]

We should have just tried to figure out if there was any way for Vlad to play in the OF and get some value out of his arm instead of sticking him at first where struggles all the time and never uses the one part of his defensive strength.

 

He still has average sprint speed, he's not a slow guy out there.

 

Interesting idea. It would be like Yordan Alvarez.

 

The problem with Vlad at 1B is that he's just bad there by most of the advanced metrics. He looks okay but measures poorly.

 

Yeah if they knew he was going to be a -10 first baseman... what's the point? Should just be a DH or a -15 LF/3B instead.

[hanton]

We should have just tried to figure out if there was any way for Vlad to play in the OF and get some value out of his arm instead of sticking him at first where struggles all the time and never uses the one part of his defensive strength.

 

He still has average sprint speed, he's not a slow guy out there.

 

I bet he can play lf/rf, he seems to track pop ups hit behind 1b down the line pretty well.

 

However, I'd start him at 3B next season, fill 1B with a free agent

[Laika]

Okay I love this idea so much tbh.

 

Vlad in LF would be a dream come true. I think he has the personality for it too. He would be diving everywhere and he has the sprint speed to recover on some bad reads. The arm would be a wild card.

 

Can someone pass this idea along to Ross?

[Laika]

Davis Schneider

 

50th percentile sprint speed

42nd percentile arm strength

OAA: -1 (40th percentile)

UZR/150: -5.9

 

 

Vlad

 

47th percentile sprint speed

78th percentile arm strength

OAA: ???

UZR: ???

 

I can't see why he would be any worse or much worse than Davis Schneider.

And I can't see why he would be worse than he is at 1B according to OAA.

[hanton]

Interesting idea. It would be like Yordan Alvarez.

 

The problem with Vlad at 1B is that he's just bad there by most of the advanced metrics. He looks okay but measures poorly.

 

Yeah if they knew he was going to be a -10 first baseman... what's the point? Should just be a DH or a -15 LF/3B instead.

 

decent comp and Vlady is way more athletic than Alvarez

[Olerud363]

I bet he can play lf/rf, he seems to track pop ups hit behind 1b down the line pretty well.

 

However, I'd start him at 3B next season, fill 1B with a free agent

 

The modern theory of defense is that a player's value should NOT change too much when they change positions. Of course there are skill sets that may make a player better at one position or another. And there is opportunity. So like short stop moves to 3rd base and value would go down if short stop is awesome (more hard plays at short stop), but value would go up if short stop sucked extreme (less hard plays to screw up).

 

However 1b to 3b maybe Vlad's value doesn't change because he has a good arm? Like he is still negative value defense, but it doesn't crater even more at 3rd because the balls that he does get to he can make the throw.

[glory]

You trade Vlad you immediately lose the interest of 5 million casual fans

 

In a market as big as Toronto, I don’t think that’s true. Fans want to see a winner, and they will move on to the next “franchise player” when the time comes. I’m sure casuals will be upset if Vlad is traded, but if the team is good again in 2-3 years, I don’t see it having any long lasting impact. On the flip side, if the team has Vlad, even an extended Vlad, on a bunch of s***** teams trying to compete over the next 2 years, will attendance still be up? I don’t know about that. Unless fans really love the stadium renovations, I think interest will drop regardless. Jays saw a ~1 million fan drop from 2017 to 2018. The 2024 attendance is likely in part due to the renovations and in part due to the 2021-23 run, but next season’s attendance will be a real test.

 

With that said, if the Jays aren’t trading him now, and Rogers wants to keep him, then extend him. If you want to dangle a carrot at free agents, at least having an extended Vlad shows that another “star” will be there for a while.

[L54]

I’m definitely team Vlad. He’s a tweak from becoming Yordan Alvarez

 

I said this before but if Vlad played for St. Louis and had his statcast page we’d be having wet dreams about the possibility of signing him. Plus other than Soto which FA over the next couple seasons would you prefer?

 

Tucker obviously but he’s going to be even more expensive

 

I don’t like Bregman as a long term piece to build around.

 

Alonso? Meh maybe

 

Naylor? Sure but the same concerns should be shared with him re body comp

[Brownie19]

Davis Schneider

 

50th percentile sprint speed

42nd percentile arm strength

OAA: -1 (40th percentile)

UZR/150: -5.9

 

 

Vlad

 

47th percentile sprint speed

78th percentile arm strength

OAA: ???

UZR: ???

 

I can't see why he would be any worse or much worse than Davis Schneider.

And I can't see why he would be worse than he is at 1B according to OAA.

 

You've forgotten to factor in Vlad's IQ, which is like -4

[hanton]

lol low iq fatty. never fails

[Omar]

Imagine contemplating trading the face of the franchise (who has openly stated that he wants to stay) and risk getting fleeced in the exchange (a distinct possibility!) just to save a few bucks while maybe also alienating any free agent you may want to attract? If you think this season is bad just wait. This has pr disaster written all over it.

 

You guys really want to see Davis Schneider doing Uncrustable commercials with Springer for the next three years? Imagine all the crumbs stuck in his stache? Not a good look.

[connorp]

Yeah so Harper gets more money.

But that doesn't mean Vlad doesn't deserve a big deal.

 

Harper was a very bad defender leading up to his free agency and a negative baserunner. His added athleticism helps but I don't know if it creates a massive gulf. He is also now a 1B at 31.

 

Age 20-25 wRC+

 

Harper, 137, 115, 197, 111, 155, 135

Vlad, 106, 110, 166, 133, 118, 140

 

132 wRC+ for Vlad in this sample, 21st in baseball

143 wRC+ for Harper, 9th in baseball

 

Harper’s athleticism advantage almost gets negated by the liability factor of it. He played 118 games or less 3 times. It’s actually continued, or worsened you could say. Vladdy is a horse

[Brownie19]

Imagine contemplating trading the face of the franchise (who has openly stated that he wants to stay) and risk getting fleeced in the exchange (a distinct possibility!) just to save a few bucks while maybe also alienating any free agent you may want to attract? This has pr disaster written all over it.

 

You guys really want to see Davis Schneider doing Uncrustable commercials with Springer for the next three years? Imagine all the crumbs stuck in his stache? Not a good look.

 

I think the concern is that he shouldn't be the face of the franchise. Is Pete Alonso the face of the Mets and some must keep superstar? I don't think he is - Lindor is, because he's a legit star. 3 WAR players aren't worth long term deals (say 10 years $250M, which is what I expect it will take to keep him). It's just a bad investment for the long term success of the team. Of course if Vlad is a 150-170 wRC+ hitter, then he's a legit star, no matter how bad his defense and base running is - and maybe he is! That's the challenge right now.

 

I agree this could be a PR nightmare and have some short term impacts on the team, but there's also risk that he's an anchor on the franchise, when we should be trying to find a true "face of the franchise" guy to build around.

 

Has connorp come on to remind us that big time bats (even if they come with other major liabilities like defense and baserunning) are worth FAR more than their WAR suggests? Isn't he always telling us how Schwarber, Teo, Castellanos, etc. got PAID as free agents over guys who get value from defense and base running because hitting is more important in the playoffs and therefore valued more? Maybe we should be viewing Vlad as a 5-6 WAR player instead of a 3 WAR player? Maybe he's right?

[Carlos Danger]

I think the concern is that he shouldn't be the face of the franchise. Is Pete Alonso the face of the Mets and some must keep superstar? I don't think he is - Lindor is, because he's a legit star. 3 WAR players aren't worth long term deals (say 10 years $250M, which is what I expect it will take to keep him). It's just a bad investment for the long term success of the team. Of course if Vlad is a 150-170 wRC+ hitter, then he's a legit star, no matter how bad his defense and base running is - and maybe he is! That's the challenge right now.

 

I agree this could be a PR nightmare and have some short term impacts on the team, but there's also risk that he's an anchor on the franchise, when we should be trying to find a true "face of the franchise" guy to build around.

 

Has connorp come on to remind us that big time bats (even if they come with other major liabilities like defense and baserunning) are worth FAR more than their WAR suggests? Isn't he always telling us how Schwarber, Teo, Castellanos, etc. got PAID as free agents over guys who get value from defense and base running because hitting is more important in the playoffs and therefore valued more? Maybe we should be viewing Vlad as a 5-6 WAR player instead of a 3 WAR player? Maybe he's right?

 

Brownie is on fire with this topic!

[connorp]

I think the concern is that he shouldn't be the face of the franchise. Is Pete Alonso the face of the Mets and some must keep superstar? I don't think he is - Lindor is, because he's a legit star. 3 WAR players aren't worth long term deals (say 10 years $250M, which is what I expect it will take to keep him). It's just a bad investment for the long term success of the team. Of course if Vlad is a 150-170 wRC+ hitter, then he's a legit star, no matter how bad his defense and base running is - and maybe he is! That's the challenge right now.

 

I agree this could be a PR nightmare and have some short term impacts on the team, but there's also risk that he's an anchor on the franchise, when we should be trying to find a true "face of the franchise" guy to build around.

 

Has connorp come on to remind us that big time bats (even if they come with other major liabilities like defense and baserunning) are worth FAR more than their WAR suggests? Isn't he always telling us how Schwarber, Teo, Castellanos, etc. got PAID as free agents over guys who get value from defense and base running because hitting is more important in the playoffs and therefore valued more? Maybe we should be viewing Vlad as a 5-6 WAR player instead of a 3 WAR player? Maybe he's right?

 

Vlad goes into another box. As mentioned by Liala, there’s only going to a few naturally elite talented hitters like him and Harper.

It’s totally unfair to compare Vlad to any person like Chris Davis and that s***. The risk factor on Vlad is as low and any player you’re ever going to sign. What the ceiling is, is the question. He’s getting $300n from someone folks.

[connorp]

I’m going to link Justin T’s “Cry me a River” when Jays sign him for $300m.

[Omar]

I think the concern is that he shouldn't be the face of the franchise. Is Pete Alonso the face of the Mets and some must keep superstar? I don't think he is - Lindor is, because he's a legit star. 3 WAR players aren't worth long term deals (say 10 years $250M, which is what I expect it will take to keep him). It's just a bad investment for the long term success of the team. Of course if Vlad is a 150-170 wRC+ hitter, then he's a legit star, no matter how bad his defense and base running is - and maybe he is! That's the challenge right now.

 

I agree this could be a PR nightmare and have some short term impacts on the team, but there's also risk that he's an anchor on the franchise, when we should be trying to find a true "face of the franchise" guy to build around.

 

Has connorp come on to remind us that big time bats (even if they come with other major liabilities like defense and baserunning) are worth FAR more than their WAR suggests? Isn't he always telling us how Schwarber, Teo, Castellanos, etc. got PAID as free agents over guys who get value from defense and base running because hitting is more important in the playoffs and therefore valued more? Maybe we should be viewing Vlad as a 5-6 WAR player instead of a 3 WAR player? Maybe he's right?

 

He shouldn't be the face of the franchise? He is so just deal with that. If we can pay Springer $25M per why not Vladdy?

 

If the long term investment is a concern as you say well they all are. That's how it works. Pay me now and suffer later on. How do you think Harper will be doing the last three years of his contract when he is a part time dh with a .700 ops, maybe if he's lucky. Ten years at $25-30M per year for a 25 year old is a pittance. If Rogers can't/won't pay that then sell the team.

 

Go Alpha or go home you betas!

[connorp]

Agreed. Go play Candyland if you don’t like the big decisions

[Olerud363]

Has connorp come on to remind us that big time bats (even if they come with other major liabilities like defense and baserunning) are worth FAR more than their WAR suggests? Isn't he always telling us how Schwarber, Teo, Castellanos, etc. got PAID as free agents over guys who get value from defense and base running because hitting is more important in the playoffs and therefore valued more? Maybe we should be viewing Vlad as a 5-6 WAR player instead of a 3 WAR player? Maybe he's right?

 

Funny thing is I remember him being on track for 4 fWAR earlier in the season when he was in Spencer Horwitz mode, now it's only 3... despite the power surge.

 

He's been like in a weird mode for the last few weeks. Like a .270 .294 .520 hitter in July and kindof switched to power mode at some point a couple of weeks before that. I think it actually lowered his fWAR/162

 

Walked 32 times April and May, 8 June and July.

 

He is weird. Other than 2021 can't put it all together. When he was patient he wasn't hitting for power. Now he is swinging hard and often it seems. Much more power but at the expense of on base. Was a better player in May. Ideally he'd get into the Juan Soto/Aaron Judge/Vlad 2021 mode where he can do both, but not there.

 

The version of Vlad we've seen the last weeks may be the ultimate over-rated player. More like a .270 40 homer .300 on base, -2 WAR defense and base running 2 WAR guy with lots of RBIzzzzzzz.

[Brownie19]

He shouldn't be the face of the franchise? He is so just deal with that. If we can pay Springer $25M per why not Vladdy?

 

If the long term investment is a concern as you say well they all are. That's how it works. Pay me now and suffer later on. How do you think Harper will be doing the last three years of his contract when he is a part time dh with a .700 ops, maybe if he's lucky. Ten years at $25-30M per year for a 25 year old is a pittance. If Rogers can't/won't pay that then sell the team.

 

Go Alpha or go home you betas!

 

I'm just saying there are legit arguments that he isn't the guy to build around or give that money to. Even teams with big payrolls will feel the pain of an underachieving anchor. We paid Springer $25M because he was a 6 WAR star player and he was a great fit to add amongst our young nucleus. I think the hope was he would give us a couple of seasons at 5-6 WAR, a couple of seasons at 3-4 WAR and a couple of seasons at 1-2 WAR. He came with intangibles and a ton of playoff success. He was a perfect fit for this young team IMO. Unfortunately, he's aged a little faster than expected.

 

To be clear - I really don't know what the right answer is. I'm just presenting the alternative view on it. Vlad's age is a huge factor as well. If the team thinks he's a 150+ wRC+ hitter over the next 5-6 seasons, then I think he's worth signing - even though I think some of those years will be wasted as we re-tool and aren't contenders. If he's a 130 wRC+ bat, I think I'd definitely entertain what you could get for him.

[John_Havok]

Funny thing is I remember him being on track for 4 fWAR earlier in the season when he was in Spencer Horwitz mode, now it's only 3... despite the power surge.

 

He's been like in a weird mode for the last few weeks. Like a .270 .294 .520 hitter in July and kindof switched to power mode at some point a couple of weeks before that. I think it actually lowered his fWAR/162

 

Walked 32 times April and May, 8 June and July.

 

He is weird. Other than 2021 can't put it all together. When he was patient he wasn't hitting for power. Now he is swinging hard and often it seems. Much more power but at the expense of on base. Was a better player in May. Ideally he'd get into the Juan Soto/Aaron Judge/Vlad 2021 mode where he can do both, but not there.

 

The version of Vlad we've seen the last weeks may be the ultimate over-rated player. More like a .270 40 homer .300 on base, -2 WAR defense and base running 2 WAR guy with lots of RBIzzzzzzz.

 

Your statement on his OBP is somewhat exaggerated. He's only taking 2.5 walks less per 100 PAs.... it's not a drastic change. It's still mainly a power issue, and worse baserunning and defense sucking his value. But mainly the power. 2021 ISO .290, 2024 .187

 

The cause of the lack of power is pretty much correlated directly to his avg sweet spot/LA ... 50th percentile in 2021, 32nd percentile in 2024. it is climbing though, last time I checked a few weeks ago it was around 20th percentile.

[Olerud363]

Your statement on his OBP is somewhat exaggerated. He's only taking 2.5 walks less per 100 PAs.... it's not a drastic change. It's still mainly a power issue, and worse baserunning and defense sucking his value. But mainly the power. 2021 ISO .290, 2024 .187

 

The cause of the lack of power is pretty much correlated directly to his avg sweet spot/LA ... 50th percentile in 2021, 32nd percentile in 2024. it is climbing though, last time I checked a few weeks ago it was around 20th percentile.

 

I meant he is taking way less walks compared to April/May then he has in June/July. April/May he took 13.2 walks per 100 PA, June/July it's 4.4 per 100 PA.

 

I think he was actually a better player hitting early in the season hitting .290 .390 .420, then he is now.

 

Power has come at the expense of a big drop in on base.

[John_Havok]

I meant he is taking way less walks compared to April/May then he has in June/July. April/May he took 13.2 walks per 100 PA, June/July it's 4.4 per 100 PA.

 

I think he was actually a better player hitting early in the season hitting .290 .390 .420, then he is now.

 

Power has come at the expense of a big drop in on base.

 

walk rate / on base will normalize once they start pitching around him again. Ill take June vlad and his .290 ISO driven 172 wrc+ over his May 166 wrC+ driven by walking and slapping singles with a .112 ISO all day.

 

Sure, overall the wRC+ is close enough to a wash, but the power driven wRC+ is far sexier and not sustained by BABIP, but sustained by smashing the piss out of baseballs.

[connorp]

Offense costs more because middle of the order bats don’t grow on trees, to say the least. Jays have 0 organics for that and nothing in the pipeline. You take fliers on guys like Belt and Turner and you’ll get mixed results. You sign guys for offense with spotty consistency, you can get mixed results too.

 

Vlad has to be resigned for anything someone else will pay him

[AMS528]

If you guys want to look at sustainability, Vlad's launch angle sweet spot has crept up from 20th percentile to 32nd percentile since May. Honestly genuinely good news on that front. He's been putting together the better aspects of his 2022 and 2023 seasons.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Since the lowpoint of his season in April, from April 26th onwards he's played 74 games at 319/375/528 good for a 155 wRC+.

 

There's good signs. Get him away from 1B to RF, where who knows maybe it even encourages him to maintain his current fitness levels and yeah we can sign him long term and feel ok that there's a floor there.

[John_Havok]

If you guys want to look at sustainability, Vlad's launch angle sweet spot has crept up from 20th percentile to 32nd percentile since May. Honestly genuinely good news on that front. He's been putting together the better aspects of his 2022 and 2023 seasons.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Since the lowpoint of his season in April, from April 26th onwards he's played 74 games at 319/375/528 good for a 155 wRC+.

 

There's good signs. Get him away from 1B to RF, where who knows maybe it even encourages him to maintain his current fitness levels and yeah we can sign him long term and feel ok that there's a floor there.

 

I shudder to think what kind of butchery Vlad would give us in RF.