General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[RobinThicc]

Blair fwiw, says Jays offered 6 years around 125 million last season to Chapman.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/why-reunion-with-matt-chapman-was-not-in-cards-for-blue-jays/

[Jonn]

If he didn't want play here its a lot less upsetting news. But he said himself multiple times during the Season he wanted to re-sign. But if they knew all this "early" in the off-season how the f*** was IKF the fall back plan.

[Krylian]

If he didn't want play here its a lot less upsetting news. But he said himself multiple times during the Season he wanted to re-sign. But if they knew all this "early" in the off-season how the f*** was IKF the fall back plan.

 

He may have sat back, watched how this off-season was playing out for Atkins, and then decided he didn't want to part of it.

[Laika]

If he didn't want play here its a lot less upsetting news. But he said himself multiple times during the Season he wanted to re-sign. But if they knew all this "early" in the off-season how the f*** was IKF the fall back plan.

 

Did you... did you... did you LOOK at the free agent 3B list?

 

Everyone not pictured below is a retirement candidate, absolute bench player, or MiLB candidate.

 

I would argue that Kike, Wendle, Solano, and Senzel also are bench options at best. Unless you are the Washington Nationals or something.

 

Turner is not actually a 3B. Only in emergencies. Candelario got $45M. Urshela is 32+ coming off a broken pelvis or something.

 

I also believe that exactly zero 3B were available for trade. Were there any rumours?

 

[hanton]

"Chapman, we’re told, turned down a contract extension of six years and about $125 million from the Blue Jays last season"

 

presumably they offered that contract to him in April becaues he sucked the rest of the season

[Laika]

"Chapman, we’re told, turned down a contract extension of six years and about $125 million from the Blue Jays last season"

 

presumably they offered that contract to him in April becaues he sucked the rest of the season

 

that's why he looked like he was going to s*** himself every time he did a 400 foot flyout to CF

[BatFlip]

Chapman reportedly turned down a contract extension of six years and $125 million from the Jays in order to bet on himself this year: "If I was going to do something long-term, I was going to get the value I’m worth."....

 

Way to go Chappy, betting on yourself. If all goes reasonably well in San Fran and Oracle Park, maybe you'll land a contract offer of 5 years and $100 million next year at age 31. f*** Rogers Centre.

 

This offseason is making perfect sense.

[Laika]

Chapman reportedly turned down a contract extension of six years and $125 million from the Jays in order to bet on himself this year: "If I was going to do something long-term, I was going to get the value I’m worth."....

 

Way to go Chappy, betting on yourself. If all goes reasonably well in San Fran and Oracle Park, maybe you'll land a contract offer of 5 years and $100 million next year at age 31. f*** Rogers Centre.

 

This offseason is making perfect sense.

 

Really just a bizarre misread of his own value, and more specifically the risk in his profile due to age and K rate.

[Dick_Pole]

Chapman has his teammates to blame. He was the one on the roster who looks closest to a UFC fighter while most of his teammates look like doughboys. I mean, if you're going into the locker room every day in his peak shape and look around, you can't help but feel an inflated value of self worth.

[Jonn]

that's why he looked like he was going to s*** himself every time he did a 400 foot flyout to CF

 

Does he really think this is going to improve in San Francisco. The ball f***ing dies there at night lol.

[Terminator]

 

Chad Green's stuff is really good.

[Laika]

Does he really think this is going to improve in San Francisco. The ball f***ing dies there at night lol.

 

Yeah

 

3 year rolling park factors on statcast...

 

Oracle Park is:

 

4th worst for HR

7th worst for Runs

 

Even in 2023 Toronto had a higher park factor than Oracle for HR and Runs.

[Brownie19]

Does he really think this is going to improve in San Francisco. The ball f***ing dies there at night lol.

 

I suspect he knows it won't improve in SF. But it seems he backed himself into quite a corner and took what he could get - from a team near his hometown/comfort zone.

[Laika]

Chad Green's stuff is really good.

 

Interesting data. Assuming this is very similar to Eno Sarris s***...

 

Yimi 2023 FF

96 mph, 13.9 IVB, 2506 rpm

Yimi 2024 spring FF

96.8 mph, 15.3 IVB, 2572 rpm

 

(probably not enough sample size to care, yet)

 

Kikuchi 2023 FF

16.2 IVB

2024 spring FF

17.1 IVB

 

Bassit 2023 SI

91.8 mph

2024 spring SI

90.4 mph

 

Green 2023 FF

94.8 mph, 17.8 IVB

2024 spring FF

95.1 mph, 19.1 IVB

 

Genesis Cabrera 2023 FF

95.8, 16.9 IVB

2024 spring FF

94.8, 18.2 IVB

 

Pearson 2023 FF

97.8, 17.4 IVB

2024 spring FF

96.8, 16.3 IVB

 

Manoah FF 2023

92.8, 16.2

2024

93.7, 16.5

(slider velo up a tick and movement up on both planes...)

 

Danner, FF 2024, 96.8 with 16.9 IVB

 

White, 2023 FF

93.8, 16 IVB

2024 FF

95.9, 16.1 IVB

 

Bowden Francis 2023 FF

94, 17.9 IVB

2024

94.9, 18.1 IVB

 

Richards 2023 FF

92.8, 20.1 IVB

2024

91.7, 18.5 IVB

 

Pardinho 2024 FF!

95.2, 16.6 IVB

WOW he is alive! And has some velo with okay shape!

 

Troy Watson (who?)

2024 FF 98 mph. 14.6 IVB

2024 SI 98.4 mph

wow gas. that's a dead zone IVB though.

 

Devereaux Harrison

93.6, 15.8 IVB

meh

 

Luis Quinones

FF, 91.5 mph 18 IVB

promising ride...

 

Chad Dallas

FF 92.9, 15.2 IVB - this will get spanked.

 

Zulueta

SI, 96.4 mph

threw one 4S and it had horrible IVB, guess he is a power 2S pitcher

 

Juenger

FF, 93.5, 17.1 IVB - could be good with a bit more ride

 

Connor Cooke

FF, 94.9 with 14.9 IVB (sad stats)

SL, -19.2 horizontal break (I think this is godly...)

 

Grayson Thurman

FF, 91 mph 18 IVB (another IVB boy)

[polar bear]

From May 1-onwards:

 

Home: 81 wRC+, 222 PA, .156 ISO

Road: 87 wRC+, 245 PA, .136 ISO

 

Yeah, not sure if Chappy has the right mindset if he's blaming the RC for his bad numbers. Maybe it's injury, maybe it's decline, maybe it's a little of both. A bounce back wouldn't shock me if it was health related. Doesn't appear that the park was the reason behind it though.

 

All these strike outs swinging or looking,had dick all to do with the shape of stadium.

He just can’t admit,he was crap.

[Brownie19]

Is IVB something they can teach?

[Laika]

Is IVB something they can teach?

 

Only a little bit

My understanding is that your general fastball shape is sort of set in stone as it's a function of your arm slot, mechanics, and certain genetic traits.

So, outside of wholesale changes like a new arm slot you can't really take a fastball with poor shape and give it good shape.

 

You can coach it up though.

[Laika]

I don't know the actual buckets for IVB but it's something like this:

 

19+ = elite

18+ = good

16+ = bit above average

 

Players/teams really want to avoid being in at 12-15 IVB zone, particularly if the velo is not good and the horizontal movement is typical.

 

But this has crept up over time at the MLB level. 16 IVB today won't play like 16 IVB five years ago.

 

Being weirdly LOW can also be good... you just want to be different.

[Stangstag]

Does he really think this is going to improve in San Francisco. The ball f***ing dies there at night lol.

 

Also with his new oppo approach… could be a disaster

[Brownie19]

Only a little bit

My understanding is that your general fastball shape is sort of set in stone as it's a function of your arm slot, mechanics, and certain genetic traits.

So, outside of wholesale changes like a new arm slot you can't really take a fastball with poor shape and give it good shape.

 

You can coach it up though.

 

I wonder how much of a change in arm slot you need to change your IVB. I could be wrong, but I think you can make minor adjustments to arm slots in an offseason (but I could totally be wrong). There must be something to this though. It's not like all these pitchers were in the same lab all winter long working on these changes under the supervision of Blue Jays staff. Some may have been, some may also just have been in labs that are pushing this (maybe all labs are).

 

Is there any other explanation? I suspect sticky stuff can help improve IVB? Maybe the Jays invested in a black market company to develop some unique sticky stuff for them (that somehow isn't detectable)!

[wilko]

I wonder how much of a change in arm slot you need to change your IVB. I could be wrong, but I think you can make minor adjustments to arm slots in an offseason (but I could totally be wrong). There must be something to this though. It's not like all these pitchers were in the same lab all winter long working on these changes under the supervision of Blue Jays staff. Some may have been, some may also just have been in labs that are pushing this (maybe all labs are).

 

Is there any other explanation? I suspect sticky stuff can help improve IVB? Maybe the Jays invested in a black market company to develop some unique sticky stuff for them (that somehow isn't detectable)!

 

I heard it's a concoction of Pete Walkers head sweat mixed with big league chew and a few spit coughs from him after hitting the bar for a couple beers.

[Laika]

I wonder how much of a change in arm slot you need to change your IVB. I could be wrong, but I think you can make minor adjustments to arm slots in an offseason (but I could totally be wrong). There must be something to this though. It's not like all these pitchers were in the same lab all winter long working on these changes under the supervision of Blue Jays staff. Some may have been, some may also just have been in labs that are pushing this (maybe all labs are).

 

Is there any other explanation? I suspect sticky stuff can help improve IVB? Maybe the Jays invested in a black market company to develop some unique sticky stuff for them (that somehow isn't detectable)!

 

Yeah minor ones

 

Like, Chad Green is the obvious one. He had a spin direction of 12:45 in all of 2020, 2021, and 2022. In 2023 his spin direction was 1:00 (on a clock face). That doesn't seem like a big difference, 15 minutes on a clock face, but probably just means during his recovery he had not quite regained his release point, was a bit too low in 2023, so his spin direction was a bit worse than before.

 

All of the above has a big SSS caveat. Maybe these guys all lose this over time. I dunno how consistent IVB is. FB Stuff is pretty sticky but you still probably need a few outings.

[MikeM3]

If you want a glossary of dead zone fastballs just look up anyone we acquired up until a year ago

[Stangstag]

Yeah minor ones

 

Like, Chad Green is the obvious one. He had a spin direction of 12:45 in all of 2020, 2021, and 2022. In 2023 his spin direction was 1:00 (on a clock face). That doesn't seem like a big difference, 15 minutes on a clock face, but probably just means during his recovery he had not quite regained his release point, was a bit too low in 2023, so his spin direction was a bit worse than before.

 

All of the above has a big SSS caveat. Maybe these guys all lose this over time. I dunno how consistent IVB is. FB Stuff is pretty sticky but you still probably need a few outings.

 

Wasn’t this the exact problem Berrios had in 2022? And then he bounced back 2023. Seems like it is correctable

[Laika]

Wasn’t this the exact problem Berrios had in 2022? And then he bounced back 2023. Seems like it is correctable

 

I don't think so...

 

I don't think his stuff numbers changed much. He threw less 4 seamers and more 2 seamers. That was the big change.

 

Some of it was just confidence (a good chunk of his poor 2022 was just bad luck).

 

I think his 4S has just gotten worse over time relative to the league. I wonder if his sinker just complements his slurve a bit better, or tunnels with it better. Stuff+ grades in his career on the 4S and sinker are pretty close (96 and 97).

 

To age well I think Berrios is going to have to try and become a wide arsenal guy or change his pitch mix every year.

[Rimar]

Chapman reportedly turned down a contract extension of six years and $125 million from the Jays in order to bet on himself this year: "If I was going to do something long-term, I was going to get the value I’m worth."....

 

Way to go Chappy, betting on yourself. If all goes reasonably well in San Fran and Oracle Park, maybe you'll land a contract offer of 5 years and $100 million next year at age 31. f*** Rogers Centre.

 

This offseason is making perfect sense.

The problem with Boras, is that he always want include options out after 1 -2 years. Basically if the player have a good season, he will screw up his team, and want test free agency again or blackmail to do it . I guess it's why teams didn't agreed for long term contracts with Bellinger, Chapman or Snell.

[Stangstag]

I don't think so...

 

I don't think his stuff numbers changed much. He threw less 4 seamers and more 2 seamers. That was the big change.

 

Some of it was just confidence (a good chunk of his poor 2022 was just bad luck).

 

I think his 4S has just gotten worse over time relative to the league. I wonder if his sinker just complements his slurve a bit better, or tunnels with it better. Stuff+ grades in his career on the 4S and sinker are pretty close (96 and 97).

 

To age well I think Berrios is going to have to try and become a wide arsenal guy or change his pitch mix every year.

 

I specifically remember someone posting a chart about his arm slot being lower in 2022, maybe that didn’t translate to the actual stuff though

[Stangstag]

The problem with Boras, is that he always want include options out after 1 -2 years. Basically if the player have a good season, he will screw up his team, and want test free agency again or blackmail to do it . I guess it's why teams didn't agreed for long term contracts with Bellinger, Chapman or Snell.

 

Yeah definitely seems that the Jays don’t like the idea of opt-outs and uncertainty. Its why they’ll sign guys like IKF to 2 year deals and trade for guys with guaranteed control. Or pay higher for a 1 year deal (Turner, Belt, Semien, etc.)

[glory]

Yeah definitely seems that the Jays don’t like the idea of opt-outs and uncertainty. Its why they’ll sign guys like IKF to 2 year deals and trade for guys with guaranteed control. Or pay higher for a 1 year deal (Turner, Belt, Semien, etc.)

 

I remember a few years ago Shapiro saying that he hates player options. Atkins did give one to Berrios so I guess maybe he's softened a bit on that stance, but otherwise I'd be surprised if the Jays gave a contract to a player with the structure that Bellinger and Chapman got.

[Spanky99]

I remember a few years ago Shapiro saying that he hates player options. Atkins did give one to Berrios so I guess maybe he's softened a bit on that stance, but otherwise I'd be surprised if the Jays gave a contract to a player with the structure that Bellinger and Chapman got.

 

I like that frame of thinking, too much risk on the team.