General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[deanmike]

Going to be a ton of moving parts to the lineup this year. The platoons aren't going to be traditional lefty/righty platoons either but based more on pitch types.

 

As you mentioned, 3B and 2B will see a ton of guys rotating through but DH (maybe Vogelbach if he makes the team as well as Jansen/Kirk) and LF (Schneider and some Biggio) are going to see a lot of that as well.

 

For some reason, the organization now sees Biggio's OF utility as limited to pretty much RF only. His overall utility (in the view of the organization) is 2B/1B/3B/RF, however I don't even think he should be seeing any OF, and probably 3B too once he most likely shows last season's defensive uptick there was just a SSS mirage.

[connorp]

I'll add to this. IKF projects at 1.1 WAR this year. Jeimer Candelario also projects for 1.1 WAR and he got 3 years $45M. LGJ projects at 1.2 WAR and he got 3 years $42M.

 

Now those are overpays...

 

You nerds are not smarter than the departments with Budgets of 10’s of millions to make these decisions. If defensive WAR was truly equal in value to offensive WAR, teams would not overpay for offense. Defensive WAR is worth less and used as a hedge by teams that can’t afford to buy WAR through offense.

[connorp]

Urshela is coming off a broken pelvis that ended his season July last year. It's reasonable to assume there might be a dip in his skillset

 

You could just as easily say his power was sapped last season by injury. Besides projecting the same, he has demonstrated upside unlike anything in IKF’s profile

[hanton]

For some reason, the organization now sees Biggio's OF utility as limited to pretty much RF only. His overall utility (in the view of the organization) is 2B/1B/3B/RF, however I don't even think he should be seeing any OF, and probably 3B too once he most likely shows last season's defensive uptick there was just a SSS mirage.

 

I don't know what his dee stats say but to my eyes he's a terrible outfielder or maybe average at best

[deanmike]

I don't know what his dee stats say but to my eyes he's a terrible outfielder or maybe average at best

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cavan-biggio/19252/stats?position=2B#advanced-fielding

 

Numbers agree with your eye test on his OF ability

[deanmike]

[Laika]

Who is the third P with a shoulder owie?

[Terminator]

For some reason, the organization now sees Biggio's OF utility as limited to pretty much RF only. His overall utility (in the view of the organization) is 2B/1B/3B/RF, however I don't even think he should be seeing any OF, and probably 3B too once he most likely shows last season's defensive uptick there was just a SSS mirage.

 

I think he's played more RF as a function of Springer being hurt or needing days off. I can assure you that if he can play RF he can also play LF. Though I do agree that he sucks at both as well as 3B (which we once tried and he failed at miserably).

[Stangstag]

Who is the third P with a shoulder owie?

 

Isn't it Yariel Rodriguez? + Manoah and now Gaus

[Terminator]

I don't know what his dee stats say but to my eyes he's a terrible outfielder or maybe average at best

 

Yeah he's probably ass in the OF but right now we don't have a true 4th OF on the team. Schneider is also probably ass but he's currently our 4th OF right now. I expect Biggio to see some time there as things currently stand. He's a lefty but he can actually hit certain lefty pitchers so there will be days where it makes sense to play him out there instead of KK.

[RustyTrombone]

Well according to the dude who broke the IKF signing, Chapman blamed the new dimensions/walls for his offensive struggles and told the jays early on he didnt want to come back

[Spanky99]

Well according to the dude who broke the IKF signing, Chapman blamed the new dimensions/walls for his offensive struggles and told the jays early on he didnt want to come back

 

That guy had the same insider as Hurl. I believe it then.

[Spanky99]

Who is the third P with a shoulder owie?

 

Who are the other 2? lol

[Terminator]

That guy had the same insider as Hurl. I believe it then.

 

Hurl doesn't know s***

[Brownie19]

You nerds are not smarter than the departments with Budgets of 10’s of millions to make these decisions. If defensive WAR was truly equal in value to offensive WAR, teams would not overpay for offense. Defensive WAR is worth less and used as a hedge by teams that can’t afford to buy WAR through offense.

 

Except Candelario projects to be a 101 wRC+ bat. The Reds didn't exactly pay a premium for offense.

[deanmike]

I think he's played more RF as a function of Springer being hurt or needing days off. I can assure you that if he can play RF he can also play LF. Though I do agree that he sucks at both as well as 3B (which we once tried and he failed at miserably).

 

On the contrary, I can actually assure YOU that if Biggio was still viewed as having double corner OF utility in the eyes of the organization, he should have taken some PAs away from Whit there, considering Whit only had 1 month above 100 wRC+ after April (88 wRC+ total from May to the end of the season), while Biggio rocked a 117 wRC+ during that same timespan.

 

Biggio also had 0.4 more fWAR than Whit during this timespan in 218 less PAs

[Terminator]

But we're still just talking about minor end of roster pieces. If IKF is as good as the team thinks he is (and they almost certainly think he's better than Urshela), nobody will care that he makes 7.5M this year instead of 2 or 4 or whatever. And if he's not, the big mistake will have been turning 3B over to him in the first place, not maybe paying him a few million more than they might have if they had waited longer.

 

Yeah IKF is a sneaky upside play (the team obviously thinks so as do I).

 

His batted ball profile improved dramatically and was almost league average last year (.324 xwOBACON) and his defensive metrics show that he might be among the elite at 3B.

 

Last year was a weird year for him because the Yankees had him playing the OF and through an ankle injury (his sprint speed dropped dramatically and should return to being well above average again).

 

He already projects to be about 1.5 WAR player as is and that's not that bad for 2/15M as is. If his batted ball profile holds, his sprint speed returns and he's playing his best position full-time he might hit 2+ WAR.

[Orgfiller]

TIL Wes Parsons sits 94-96.

[wilko]

Yeah IKF is a sneaky upside play (the team obviously thinks so as do I).

 

His batted ball profile improved dramatically and was almost league average last year (.324 xwOBACON) and his defensive metrics show that he might be among the elite at 3B.

 

Last year was a weird year for him because the Yankees had him playing the OF and through an ankle injury (his sprint speed dropped dramatically and should return to being well above average again).

 

He already projects to be about 1.5 WAR player as is and that's not that bad for 2/15M as is. If his batted ball profile holds, his sprint speed returns and he's playing his best position full-time he might hit 2+ WAR.

 

Big brain moves by Atkins.

[BatFlip]

Yeah IKF is a sneaky upside play (the team obviously thinks so as do I).

 

His batted ball profile improved dramatically and was almost league average last year (.324 xwOBACON) and his defensive metrics show that he might be among the elite at 3B.

 

Last year was a weird year for him because the Yankees had him playing the OF and through an ankle injury (his sprint speed dropped dramatically and should return to being well above average again).

 

He already projects to be about 1.5 WAR player as is and that's not that bad for 2/15M as is. If his batted ball profile holds, his sprint speed returns and he's playing his best position full-time he might hit 2+ WAR.

 

 

I hope you're right. If IKR has a 2+ WAR season I'll have a glass of Lagavulin to toast both of you.

[bones10]

Holy nuke by vlad

[Abomination]

The money on IKF might be a slight overpay, but it's fine. So is the term. He needs to be used primarily as a late game replacement though who gets into maybe 130 games a year and gets 250ish PA. Unless he has a massive breakout at the plate, which seems unlikely, he shouldn't be the starting 3B. The bat just isn't there, and our team deficiency is on offense. That's the issue. I'd rather have a big bat at 3rd who is below average defensively. Our pitching staff is elite. If the 3rd baseman coughs up a few hits here and there, they have the talent to get out of it.

[Terminator]

On the contrary, I can actually assure YOU that if Biggio was still viewed as having double corner OF utility in the eyes of the organization, he should have taken some PAs away from Whit there, considering Whit only had 1 month above 100 wRC+ after April (88 wRC+ total from May to the end of the season), while Biggio rocked a 117 wRC+ during that same timespan.

 

Biggio also had 0.4 more fWAR than Whit during this timespan in 218 less PAs

 

Are you serious Dean? Double corner OF utility? Lol you even hit me with a capital "YOU"!

 

If a bench player can play RF he can also play LF. It's a simple concept Dean.

 

Now the team probably does put some stock into a player's individual preference because the difference in value between the two positions is small. But your argument regarding Whit disproves your point because it shows the a previous LF roadblock is no longer with the team, thus clearing the way for more time in LF for Biggio if it comes to it.

[BTS]

The money on IKF might be a slight overpay, but it's fine. So is the term. He needs to be used primarily as a late game replacement though who gets into maybe 130 games a year and gets 250ish PA. Unless he has a massive breakout at the plate, which seems unlikely, he shouldn't be the starting 3B. The bat just isn't there, and our team deficiency is on offense. That's the issue. I'd rather have a big bat at 3rd who is below average defensively. Our pitching staff is elite. If the 3rd baseman coughs up a few hits here and there, they have the talent to get out of it.

 

I still kind of think JD Davis makes sense. They'd have to jettison Espinal, but that's fine. Get him out of SF and he'll run unto 20 dingers and a wRC+ over 105. Neither him nor IKF have a platoon split, but they might have different splits vs. different pitcher types or something. Davis starting 4- times a week at 3B with IKF getting the other 2-3 and then coming in as a defensive replacement if the team has the lead might be the best way to squeeze value out of 3B.

[Laika]

IKF will be better than Chapman in every way in 2024, other than HR/RBI count.

 

AVG - IKF

OBP - IKF

SPEED - IKF

DEFENSE - IKF

WAR - IKF

wOBA - IKF

[BTS]

IKF will be better than Chapman in every way in 2024, other than HR/RBI count.

 

AVG - IKF

OBP - IKF

SPEED - IKF

DEFENSE - IKF

WAR - IKF

wOBA - IKF

 

IKF needs to either out-WAR Chapman or completely bomb. Anything in between is wasted potential for BJMB hilarity

[Orgfiller]

Wes Parsons overview (all the "relative" data is obviously compared to his one start in 2023):

 

4-seam averaged 94.7 mph - up 0.6 ticks from last year

Slider averaged 88.7 mph - up 2.4 mph, spin way down. Traded added velo for spin?

Threw one change with much more spin and less velo than before, testing something?

 

5 whiffs in 28 pitches against the Phillies' main lineup.

[Brownie19]

IKF will be better than Chapman in every way in 2024, other than HR/RBI count.

 

AVG - IKF

OBP - IKF

SPEED - IKF

DEFENSE - IKF

WAR - IKF

wOBA - IKF

 

If this happens, we may need to organize a BJMB Falafel Dinner night like we did the one year with the pizza night...

[Abomination]

I still kind of think JD Davis makes sense. They'd have to jettison Espinal, but that's fine. Get him out of SF and he'll run unto 20 dingers and a wRC+ over 105. Neither him nor IKF have a platoon split, but they might have different splits vs. different pitcher types of something. Davis starting 4- times a week at 3B with IK getting the other 2-3 and then coming in as a defensive replacement if the team has the lead might be the best way to squeeze value out of 3B.

 

Yeah, I agree. It's kind of like a Johnsonalanotto except with offense and defense rather than handedness.

[Laika]

Wes Parsons overview (all the "relative" data is obviously compared to his one start in 2023):

 

4-seam averaged 94.7 mph - up 0.6 ticks from last year

Slider averaged 88.7 mph - up 2.4 mph, spin way down. Traded added velo for spin?

Threw one change with much more spin and less velo than before, testing something?

 

5 whiffs in 28 pitches against the Phillies' main lineup.

 

Miami Mike is speechless