General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[deanmike]

[Jays24]

 

I am so not pumped for this season if we are truly done man. A crappy hitting team has become crappier.

 

Now I'm only speaking from an entertainment, last years Jays team was extremely unwatchable and I truly feel this years team is going be worse in that terms. We are going to be hoping for a lot of 2-1 wins.

[max silver]

I am so not pumped for this season if we are truly done man. A crappy hitting team has become crappier.

 

Now I'm only speaking from an entertainment, last years Jays team was extremely unwatchable and I truly feel this years team is going be worse in that terms. We are going to be hoping for a lot of 2-1 wins.

 

So I take it you have essentially zero faith that the underperformers from 2023 are going to experience any sort of bounceback. The only above average offensive contributor that's been lost is Matt Chapman, but I think a the very least some of what is lost from his likely departure will be countered by a full season from Davis Schneider.

[Laika]

Last year's team was unwatchable but most of that was a) bad luck happening in front of your eyes, and key players underperforming in really frustrating ways

 

It's very possible for a baseball team to be built around pitching and defense, with an adequate offense, and be entertaining and watchable!

Good defense is fun. Quality pitching is fun.

 

I'm just not entirely sure the Jays will have a good defense anymore.... KK and Varsho are elite, but then what?

 

Jansen and Kirk are good by the metrics but not exactly toolsy.

IKF should be elite at 3B but you give up a lot of offense to get that.

Springer, Bo, Vlad are fringe-average at their positions I guess.

Schneider is an unknown but we should assume he's not a good defender.

Biggio is just whatever.

Espinal is no longer a slick glove.

Horwitz, you don't want on the field.

A lot of the AAA guys sound like 2B, or positional nomads.

 

A LOT kind of depends on the defensive season that Bo Bichette has, I guess. Fitting for a shortstop.

[burlingtonbandit]

I'm really surprised Atkins would go into the season with this roster given he's likely to be fired if the team doesn't make the playoffs (maybe even if they make it as a wildcard and don't win a playoff game). You would think if your job was on the line you would would want to maximize the offence and right now the lineup looks underwhelming. Some bounce backs from Vladdy, Kirk and Varsho could turn the lineup into a top 5 offence but you would think they would want more certainty.

 

Also I know its a small piece but they still need a 4th OF that play against LHP and spell Varsho/KK. Last year we saw garbage like Jordan Luplow fail and it was infuriating to watch.

[Jays24]

So I take it you have essentially zero faith that the underperformers from 2023 are going to experience any sort of bounceback. The only above average offensive contributor that's been lost is Matt Chapman, but I think a the very least some of what is lost from his likely departure will be countered by a full season from Davis Schneider.

 

People keep trying to push that we will get bounce backs from some guys while it wont be cancelled out in other areas. What says that our starters will set another MLB record in terms of health and make 30+ starts again? We lose a couple of starters to injuries and the drop-off will be felt.

 

It was a horrible offseason and there's no other way to put it. Yes, we are still a good team but we were hoping to be great and we are definitely not that.

[wamco]

I suppose it could come down to having a logjam and then making individual decisions on the various players in question.

 

De Los Santos got the majority of the starts at 3B toward the end of the season when the 3 real prospects were in AAA. Perhaps the Jays like him and wanted to get a look at him/see if he could improve with some coaching. Seeing as his value is all glove maybe they felt it necessary to keep him on the left side of the infield? And Jimenez, Clement and others were playing SS so 3B is where they put him?

 

This blocked Orelvis and Parmesan who then switched to 2B and 1B, respectively, which they felt was no big deal because they might move there eventually anyway.

 

Barger apparently has a cannon for an arm and he had never played OF before. Perhaps they felt it was his best chance to get some reps in RF before turning him into a UT player.

 

I suppose it isn't a nail in the coffin of any of Orelivs, Barger and Parmesan playing 3B but it certainly doesn't look great when we knew we would need a 3B and instead were playing fringe org guys at the position instead.

 

You somehow made Palmagianis name even more Italian! And gave him a new nickname at the same time. Well done.

[Terminator]

I'm just not entirely sure the Jays will have a good defense anymore.... KK and Varsho are elite, but then what?

 

Jansen and Kirk are good by the metrics but not exactly toolsy.

IKF should be elite at 3B but you give up a lot of offense to get that.

Springer, Bo, Vlad are fringe-average at their positions I guess.

Schneider is an unknown but we should assume he's not a good defender.

Biggio is just whatever.

Espinal is no longer a slick glove.

Horwitz, you don't want on the field.

A lot of the AAA guys sound like 2B, or positional nomads.

 

A LOT kind of depends on the defensive season that Bo Bichette has, I guess. Fitting for a shortstop.

 

Well how does 2023 differ from 2024's team, defensively?

 

The only major change is Chapman but IKF is similar.

 

Among semi-regulars, Whit wasn't anything special. Neither was Belt. Maybe Schneider and Turner are a setback but not by much in the grand scheme of things.

[burlingtonbandit]

Last year's team was unwatchable but most of that was a) bad luck happening in front of your eyes, and key players underperforming in really frustrating ways

 

It's very possible for a baseball team to be built around pitching and defense, with an adequate offense, and be entertaining and watchable!

Good defense is fun. Quality pitching is fun.

 

I'm just not entirely sure the Jays will have a good defense anymore.... KK and Varsho are elite, but then what?

 

Jansen and Kirk are good by the metrics but not exactly toolsy.

IKF should be elite at 3B but you give up a lot of offense to get that.

Springer, Bo, Vlad are fringe-average at their positions I guess.

Schneider is an unknown but we should assume he's not a good defender.

Biggio is just whatever.

Espinal is no longer a slick glove.

Horwitz, you don't want on the field.

A lot of the AAA guys sound like 2B, or positional nomads.

 

A LOT kind of depends on the defensive season that Bo Bichette has, I guess. Fitting for a shortstop.

 

Good defence and good pitching isn't fun when the team can't hit though (saying this generally not as it pertains to the Jays the coming season). Chapman at 3rd definitely was a difference maker though. I think saying the Jays won't be as good defensively doesn't make anymore more excited to watch the team lol.

 

I would lump Vladdy into the bad defender category. -23 in OAA at 1st base in the last 4 years and he looked really bad last year. Turner at his age if he does play the field is likely quite a bit below average as well (at least at 3rd).

 

Biggio and Espinal have been good defenders in the past so I can see them returning to above average at 2nd/3rd.

[burlingtonbandit]

Well how does 2023 differ from 2024's team, defensively?

 

The only major change is Chapman but IKF is similar.

 

Among semi-regulars, Whit wasn't anything special. Neither was Belt. Maybe Schneider and Turner are a setback but not by much in the grand scheme of things.

 

While KK and Varsho had elite defensive seasons I think you could see a drop off in performance there just because they set the bar that high with how good they were last year. Schneider is set to get more playing time this year and he looked like a below average defender at 2nd so there's that. Springer is a year older as well..

[Brownie19]

I'm really surprised Atkins would go into the season with this roster given he's likely to be fired if the team doesn't make the playoffs (maybe even if they make it as a wildcard and don't win a playoff game). You would think if your job was on the line you would would want to maximize the offence and right now the lineup looks underwhelming. Some bounce backs from Vladdy, Kirk and Varsho could turn the lineup into a top 5 offence but you would think they would want more certainty.

 

Also I know its a small piece but they still need a 4th OF that play against LHP and spell Varsho/KK. Last year we saw garbage like Jordan Luplow fail and it was infuriating to watch.

 

There are going to be a lot of solid players who have to settle for minor league contracts with an invite to STing. I suspect we'll try and nab a few of them to give us options. Schneider in LF with Espinal at 2nd base may also be an option v. LHP. Biggio also hits LHP about as well as he does RHP - so he could play LF also.

[Brownie19]

People keep trying to push that we will get bounce backs from some guys while it wont be cancelled out in other areas. What says that our starters will set another MLB record in terms of health and make 30+ starts again? We lose a couple of starters to injuries and the drop-off will be felt.

 

It was a horrible offseason and there's no other way to put it. Yes, we are still a good team but we were hoping to be great and we are definitely not that.

 

You understand why that is right? Because all projection systems suggest they will. I would hope everyone would want a FO that looks at projections, instead of saying "well they sucked last year, so we should expect the same from them this year" - just the same as they shouldn't say "well that player was great for us last year, so let's blindly assume he'll be great for us this year".

 

And to be fair, the FO did add Yariel Rodriguez to add to our SPing depth (to go along with some of our prospects being a year older and more ready to contribute).

[max silver]

People keep trying to push that we will get bounce backs from some guys while it wont be cancelled out in other areas. What says that our starters will set another MLB record in terms of health and make 30+ starts again? We lose a couple of starters to injuries and the drop-off will be felt.

 

It was a horrible offseason and there's no other way to put it. Yes, we are still a good team but we were hoping to be great and we are definitely not that.

 

The team basically needs to figure out why the team didn't perform in the clutch at home in the Rogers Centre. The team was a good offense on the road but had a puzzling lack of hitting at home and were negatively affected by the renovation much more than the opposition.

 

I don't know why there is this assumption that the rotation is suddenly going to suck. Sure they might suffer from several injuries but all of the returning starters have essentially spotless injury histories so it's not outside the realm of possibility that the rotation continues to be a strength for the club.

 

I think the offseason has been largely underwhelming up to this point. I wouldn't necessarily paint it as "horrible" but I certainly wouldn't complain if another bat were to be added.

[glory]

I'm really surprised Atkins would go into the season with this roster given he's likely to be fired if the team doesn't make the playoffs (maybe even if they make it as a wildcard and don't win a playoff game). You would think if your job was on the line you would would want to maximize the offence and right now the lineup looks underwhelming. Some bounce backs from Vladdy, Kirk and Varsho could turn the lineup into a top 5 offence but you would think they would want more certainty.

 

Also I know its a small piece but they still need a 4th OF that play against LHP and spell Varsho/KK. Last year we saw garbage like Jordan Luplow fail and it was infuriating to watch.

 

How Atkins has operated this winter is someone who has no fear for his job security. Objectively, the team has averaged 90 wins over the last 3 seasons, and made the playoffs over the last 2, finishing with over 3 million fans in 2023. It's possible fans overstate how much at risk Atkins actually is. Granted, not everyone with a possible fragile job security is going to scorch earth like AA did in 2015, so maybe Atkins is just operating business as usual despite any potential noise about his role, but somehow I doubt that.

 

The fact that he brought in a 39 year old DH, an injury prone OF, and whatever you want to label IKF, it seems like he's leaving the door open for prospects to take over either sometime in 2024 or 2025. Whether that means trying to integrate those prospects into an already contending team or retooling post 2024 depends on how 2024 goes. It would be pretty cool if the Jays made the playoffs again with Schneider, Horowitz, Orelvis, Tiedemann, Barger, etc, playing roles. Not sure if that's something Atkins is banking on or whether he truly believes in the vetrins he's brought in.

[max silver]

While KK and Varsho had elite defensive seasons I think you could see a drop off in performance there just because they set the bar that high with how good they were last year. Schneider is set to get more playing time this year and he looked like a below average defender at 2nd so there's that. Springer is a year older as well..

 

I didn't personally see anything to indicate that Schneider was below average at second base last season. The metrics back up my eye test as well with an even 0 DRS, 5.0 UZR/150 and 3 OAA in 182 innings of work. His arm strength is rather low but plays just fine at second base.

[Brownie19]

I'm really surprised Atkins would go into the season with this roster given he's likely to be fired if the team doesn't make the playoffs (maybe even if they make it as a wildcard and don't win a playoff game). You would think if your job was on the line you would would want to maximize the offence and right now the lineup looks underwhelming. Some bounce backs from Vladdy, Kirk and Varsho could turn the lineup into a top 5 offence but you would think they would want more certainty.

 

Also I know its a small piece but they still need a 4th OF that play against LHP and spell Varsho/KK. Last year we saw garbage like Jordan Luplow fail and it was infuriating to watch.

 

1. Perhaps he doesn't feel as though that's true (or has been told it's not true);

2. Either way, the goal is to maximize the # of wins - not maximize the offense. You may think the offense is what needs to be fixed, but I doubt you felt our offense was a major concern heading into last year. It turns out us fans are wrong pretty often.

[Spanky99]

I'm really surprised Atkins would go into the season with this roster given he's likely to be fired if the team doesn't make the playoffs (maybe even if they make it as a wildcard and don't win a playoff game). You would think if your job was on the line you would would want to maximize the offence and right now the lineup looks underwhelming. Some bounce backs from Vladdy, Kirk and Varsho could turn the lineup into a top 5 offence but you would think they would want more certainty.

 

Also I know its a small piece but they still need a 4th OF that play against LHP and spell Varsho/KK. Last year we saw garbage like Jordan Luplow fail and it was infuriating to watch.

 

I read that the Jays have Schneider for that role as is.

[Terminator]

While KK and Varsho had elite defensive seasons I think you could see a drop off in performance there just because they set the bar that high with how good they were last year. Schneider is set to get more playing time this year and he looked like a below average defender at 2nd so there's that. Springer is a year older as well..

 

Yeah I think there will be some regression but some of it will be good.

 

Varsho was actually not that great in LF for some reason. I bet that corrects itself and you could see better defensive numbers from him. Regardless of the numbers though, he's in his prime and should carry on.

 

My guess is that Vlad is A LOT better. Not because I think he is good. But his metrics were bordering on unplayable last year at -13 OAA. The other 3 years he played 1st he was -2, -3, and -3. If he merely gets back to -3 that alone could make up for regression we get from older guys like KK and Springer or the drop in talent from Whit to Schneider (which is really the only clear drop-off that we'll have).

[max silver]

I read that the Jays have Schneider for that role as is.

 

Hopefully he can handle the outfield without resembling a deer in headlights ala early career Gurriel.

[Jays24]

The team basically needs to figure out why the team didn't perform in the clutch at home in the Rogers Centre. The team was a good offense on the road but had a puzzling lack of hitting at home and were negatively affected by the renovation much more than the opposition.

 

I don't know why there is this assumption that the rotation is suddenly going to suck. Sure they might suffer from several injuries but all of the returning starters have essentially spotless injury histories so it's not outside the realm of possibility that the rotation continues to be a strength for the club.

 

I think the offseason has been largely underwhelming up to this point. I wouldn't necessarily paint it as "horrible" but I certainly wouldn't complain if another bat were to be added.

 

I definitely did not say our starters will suck but the health was MLB record setting levels. It's hard for that to repeat and if we see Mitch White and other AAA fodder being forced to start, we will see fallback there.

 

In the end, I don't see the bounceback being high enough to overcome the fallback in other areas. Most fans were hoping we would try to take a step forward instead of taking a step back. That's where the disappointment comes from.

[max silver]

I definitely did not say our starters will suck but the health was MLB record setting levels. It's hard for that to repeat and if we see Mitch White and other AAA fodder being forced to start, we will see fallback there.

 

In the end, I don't see the bounceback being high enough to overcome the fallback in other areas. Most fans were hoping we would try to take a step forward instead of taking a step back. That's where the disappointment comes from.

 

I have strong suspicions that Manoah's season was derailed by an offseason shoulder issue so the rotation essentially lost a key member for most of the season as a result. Of the other rotation members I'm most concerned about regression from Bassitt but this is more due to his advancing age as he's going to be 35 years old this season. As has been mentioned by Terminator in a different thread the team has better depth options this season compared to a year ago so hopefully they can weather the storm if any rotation members miss large chunks of time. I'm cautiously optimistic about Mitch White and want to see if he can build on the strong finish to his AAA season. I think Tiedemann likely debuts this season if the need arises and he's anything but AAA fodder.

 

I simply don't think it's reasonable to assume that all of the members of the offense that had disappointing seasons are going to do the same thing in 2024 as most of these guys are young/in their primes. They all have enough of a track record to indicate that they are capable of more than what they did in 2023 based on previous levels of success.

[Terminator]

I definitely did not say our starters will suck but the health was MLB record setting levels. It's hard for that to repeat and if we see Mitch White and other AAA fodder being forced to start, we will see fallback there.

 

In the end, I don't see the bounceback being high enough to overcome the fallback in other areas. Most fans were hoping we would try to take a step forward instead of taking a step back. That's where the disappointment comes from.

 

I think people really really underestimate the offense and how big of a bounce back we can expect.

 

Vlad, all by himself, is projected to have a 3.2 WAR improvement all on his own.

 

You could spend close to 350 million to sign Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman and push KK and IKF to the bench and you'd get roughly the same amount of WAR improvement.

[L54]

I definitely did not say our starters will suck but the health was MLB record setting levels. It's hard for that to repeat and if we see Mitch White and other AAA fodder being forced to start, we will see fallback there.

 

In the end, I don't see the bounceback being high enough to overcome the fallback in other areas. Most fans were hoping we would try to take a step forward instead of taking a step back. That's where the disappointment comes from.

 

You’re not wrong. Everyone says well Vlad and Varsho and Kirk and so and so will bounce back… but nobody seems to think that it’s possible other players are worse than last year

[glory]

Sounds like the Jays will view Schneider in the same way they viewed Merrifield, as a 2B and defacto 4th OF. Which means against lefties we probably see the Murderers Row lineup of Schneider in LF, Espinal at 2B, and IKF at 3B. I really hope Turner can play some 3B, even if it's a modest amount.

[L54]

 

Lol a lot of guys aren’t gonna know how to handle this news

[Brownie19]

I definitely did not say our starters will suck but the health was MLB record setting levels. It's hard for that to repeat and if we see Mitch White and other AAA fodder being forced to start, we will see fallback there.

 

In the end, I don't see the bounceback being high enough to overcome the fallback in other areas. Most fans were hoping we would try to take a step forward instead of taking a step back. That's where the disappointment comes from.

 

The Jays were 14th in runs scored last year (7th in wRC+). You act like we were 25th. A simply return to a normal batting average with RISP would probably push us into the Top 10 in runs scored - even if there was little to no improvement from our core players. Minor bounce back seasons by Vlad, Springer, Kirk and Varsho and/or some breakouts by our prospects (Schneider, Horwitz, Barger, Orelvis) would help offset any other declines we may see (Turner, KK, Springer) and the loss of Chapman. Large bounce back seasons from those hitters and/or major breakouts for a prospect or 2 and we're probably a Top 5 offense.

 

I can appreciate what you're saying about the starters, but we do have more pitching depth this year than I can remember. A rebound season from Manoah alone would go a long way to covering any regression or injuries in the rotation. We also have Yariel Rodriguez, White, Francis, Ricky T and Chad Dallas to turn to if Manoah is finished and/or we have injuries. Now of course of Manoah is finished and 2 of our other starters need TJ surgery, we're f***ed - but so would almost every other team in baseball.

[Laika]

Well how does 2023 differ from 2024's team, defensively?

 

The only major change is Chapman but IKF is similar.

 

Among semi-regulars, Whit wasn't anything special. Neither was Belt. Maybe Schneider and Turner are a setback but not by much in the grand scheme of things.

 

Not by much, I guess the main point is that the defense wasn't even elite in 2023. It was... worse than the offense? Compared to the league. lol

[wilko]

Not by much, I guess the main point is that the defense wasn't even elite in 2023. It was... worse than the offense? Compared to the league. lol

 

[wamco]

I think people really really underestimate the offense and how big of a bounce back we can expect.

 

Vlad, all by himself, is projected to have a 3.2 WAR improvement all on his own.

 

You could spend close to 350 million to sign Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman and push KK and IKF to the bench and you'd get roughly the same amount of WAR improvement.

 

Projected 3.2. What’s your prediction?

 

Like if you bet on above or below 2.9 improvement?

[burlingtonbandit]

How Atkins has operated this winter is someone who has no fear for his job security. Objectively, the team has averaged 90 wins over the last 3 seasons, and made the playoffs over the last 2, finishing with over 3 million fans in 2023. It's possible fans overstate how much at risk Atkins actually is. Granted, not everyone with a possible fragile job security is going to scorch earth like AA did in 2015, so maybe Atkins is just operating business as usual despite any potential noise about his role, but somehow I doubt that.

 

The fact that he brought in a 39 year old DH, an injury prone OF, and whatever you want to label IKF, it seems like he's leaving the door open for prospects to take over either sometime in 2024 or 2025. Whether that means trying to integrate those prospects into an already contending team or retooling post 2024 depends on how 2024 goes. It would be pretty cool if the Jays made the playoffs again with Schneider, Horowitz, Orelvis, Tiedemann, Barger, etc, playing roles. Not sure if that's something Atkins is banking on or whether he truly believes in the vetrins he's brought in.

 

The Jays also have ran a pretty high payroll of late so I'm not sure a 90 win wildcard team is really that big of an achievement if you are spending 230-250M on payroll. There is no doubt Atkins has done well in FA and in trades for the most part, but if you told me back in 2016 when Shapiro/Atkins were first hired that the team wouldn't have a single division title with no playoff success in 7 years Id be pretty disappointed based on expectations.

 

The big blemish on Atkins ironically is the lack of developing young talent as well as his communication or lack there of. He's terrible with the media and comes off really unauthentic which I think is a big reason why casual fans don't like him. And there seems to be a big disconnect with the communication with the players as we saw last season.