General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Jays24]

You're a f***ing idiot, I put 90 wins down... what say you Chief? I said Kirk had better baserunning numbers than Moreno at the time of the post, which was 100% accurate. Coming from a clown that has no idea how analytics or projections work, this is f***ing rich, lmao.

 

Haha no, you said Kirk was a better baserunner than Moreno and that I should go check the numbers.

 

And I do understand most of the numbers but won't pretend to know what goes into every calculation lol. I'd rather know what I'm actually watching on the field than be so reliant on fangraphs to tell me how to think every step of the way

[Spanky99]

Haha no, you said Kirk was a better baserunner than Moreno and that I should go check the numbers.

 

And I do understand most of the numbers but won't pretend to know what goes into every calculation lol. I'd rather know what I'm actually watching on the field than be so reliant on fangraphs to tell me how to think every step of the way

 

You've likely never played an organized baseball game in your life, and of course I'd tell you to go look at the numbers, it was my point. Mouth breather...

[Terminator]

Term is clearly joking dude, well, I think.

 

Yeah it's a joke based on the naive definition of probability where when presented with 2 options the fallacy is to claim that both options are 50/50.

 

I've seen the joke used before but it clearly didn't land this time. I should probably go back to my original "Sheriff" material. I know I retired the character months ago but no one can deny how popular those jokes were. We'll see!

[Jays24]

You've likely never played an organized baseball game in your life, and of course I'd tell you to go look at the numbers, it was my point. Mouth breather...

 

I promise you that I'd school you in every aspect of baseball even with it being my 2nd sport lol.

[Spanky99]

People said the same thing about Berrios and were crying about him. A stud prospect who had a stud like year is allowed one bad season.

 

The whole premise of our offseason currently is that our entire batting lineup will bounce back but Manoah won't. Just think it's foolish but we'll find out soon enough.

 

Springer has YEARS of success so anyone who says he can bounce back is more likely to be right. Varsho and Kirk do not have this track record hitting wise at the major league level. Kirk/Varsho are just as likely to be bad at the plate as they are good, that's all my point is.

 

Now i need your help on this buy does wRC+ account for base running? Kirk's baserunning cost us plenty of runs the past few years. That should also be factored into his overall offensive value but not sure how that can be measured properly.

 

lol... in one breath you mention the former, but use Berrios and Manoah as examples in another, pick a lane dude.

 

As for the 2nd paragraph, are you serious? lmfao

 

Mouth Breather...

[Spanky99]

I promise you that I'd school you in every aspect of baseball even with it being my 2nd sport lol.

 

I played the best tier in Canada bro, pitched and bat cleanup, not a chance, pal.

[Spanky99]

Yeah it's a joke based on the naive definition of probability where when presented with 2 options the fallacy is to claim that both options are 50/50.

 

I've seen the joke used before but it clearly didn't land this time. I should probably go back to my original "Sheriff" material. I know I retired the character months ago but no one can deny how popular those jokes were. We'll see!

 

Well, I laughed, so there's that, friendo.

[Terminator]

I promise you that I'd school you in every aspect of baseball even with it being my 2nd sport lol.

 

I played the best tier in Canada bro, pitched and bat cleanup, not a chance, pal.

 

I would love to see a Battle of BJMB Stars where Spanky struggles to get a base hit off of Jays24's 68 mph fastball.

[Jays24]

I played the best tier in Canada bro, pitched and bat cleanup, not a chance, pal.

 

I was speaking more about present times but that's impressive... respect level went up a bit lol

[Jays24]

I would love to see a Battle of BJMB Stars where Spanky struggles to get a base hit off of Jays24's 68 mph fastball.

 

Lolll definitely didn't want the convo to go down this path on a damn message board but Spanky is able to bring things out in people no one else can.

[Spanky99]

I would love to see a Battle of BJMB Stars where Spanky struggles to get a base hit off of Jays24's 68 mph fastball.

 

Wow!

[connorp]

Spanky sucks. He just chased off another new guy in our board league. Im assuming he’s sending unsolicited dick pics, but as of now, nobody has hard to courage to call him out on it..

[Terminator]

My prediction is that Spanky goes 1 for 3 with a walk and 2 Ks. The battle is declared a "draw" after both players can't finish the contest due to injury.

[Spanky99]

Spanky sucks. He just chased off another new guy in our board league. Im assuming he’s sending unsolicited dick pics, but as of now, nobody has hard to courage to call him out on it..

 

Hop on the shortbus 3-Foot.

[Spanky99]

Don't ever link me to that POS's name.

 

 

 

The answer was explained above.

 

The offseason isn't over yet moron's, they're likely projected a high 80 win, team so the variance is likely 86 - 92 wins. I'll go with 90 as is, now where's your predictions ya dingleberries.

 

So no predictions from the mouth breathers as expected...

[Brownie19]

Dude, I don't give a crap about AAA numbers. Most players in the majors raked in the minors, which is why they're even in the majors. It's all about how they perform in the major league level. Based on that, Kirk is just as likely to be an average hitter as he is an above average one.

 

Now I don't want this to be misconstrued because I do have faith Kirk is a good hitter but he does not have a track record in the majors to be super confident one way or another.

 

This is a poor take if you aren't going to factor in his age. Age and results in the minors can be very good indicators of ML success. Kirk was raking in A+ ball as a 20 year old (when he was 2.4 years below the average age) and raked in the majors as a 23 year old in his first full season. This are very good indicators that Kirk is a legit, ML hitter. That's obviously much different than Riley Adams, who raked in A+ ball as a 23 year old.

Edited February 5, 2024 by Brownie19

[RustyTrombone]

Kieth Laws top 100 Prospects List came out. Jays with Ricky T at 52, Orelvis at 57 and Nimmala at 59. Hes low on Ricky but high on Orelvis and Nimmala so it balances out I guess.

 

Tiedemann

 

2023 Ranking: 47

 

Tiedeman threw just 44 innings in the regular season around injuries to his left shoulder and biceps, making four starts in the AFL to try to make up for some of the lost time. He did regain the velocity that had been missing at the end of 2022, bumping 98 mph and pitching at 93-96 in the outing I saw in the desert, with a plus changeup and a big-breaking slider that wasn’t up to its past standard that day. The slider’s pretty high spin and has good tilt, giving him two real weapons, one for lefties and one for righties, which also helps as his fastball doesn’t have a ton of life or movement and hitters square it up more than the velocity might imply. His delivery isn’t ideal for durability, as his shoulder stays open late, with some sling to the arm stroke, and that might be putting undue pressure on the joint. You have to start a guy with these weapons, and if he stays healthy enough for it he’s a mid-rotation starter or better depending on the control (maybe 45 now, but he’s shown better) and command (40). Two years of missed time and suboptimal mechanics give him a lot of reliever risk, though.

 

Orelvis

 

2023 Ranking: Just missed

 

The Jays challenged Martinez with an assignment to Double A to start 2022 when he was just 20 years old and had only 27 games of High-A experience, so it wasn’t a huge shock that he struggled, hitting .203/.286/.446 with a 28.4 percent strikeout rate. The Jays returned him to Double-A New Hampshire in 2023 and he looked like a different guy, improving his swing decisions across the board, posting the best walk rate of his career and his lowest strikeout rate since Rookie ball. He’s always had the raw power, with 86 homers across the last three seasons, but needed to hit enough to get to it, so improving not just the raw contact and walk numbers but getting into better counts and choosing better pitches to attack was and still is the key for him to be more than an extra guy in the majors. He can handle shortstop if need be but at best he’ll be an average defender there; I’ve seen him at third and think he can be above-average at the hot corner, while some scouts think second base will be his eventual home. A 30-homer, .320-330 OBP hitter at either spot is an everyday player on just about any club, and that’s his upside if he keeps working on his approach.

 

Nimmala

 

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

 

Nimmala was one of the youngest players in the 2023 draft class, turning 18 this past October; he fell to the 20th pick, where the Blue Jays were ecstatic to get a player I’d ranked as a top-10 talent. Nimmala offers the upside of a true shortstop with 25+ homer power, with good actions at short and a plus arm, while he can show a powerful and efficient right-handed swing that should launch balls as he fills out. He’s still physically immature, hardly surprising for his age, and as he gets stronger he might start to run a little better and drive the ball harder while also getting more consistent around the bag at short. He showed a little swing and miss in high school, but in a brief stint in the complex league he actually displayed more patience and very little tendency to chase. He’s going to be younger this season than some guys in the upcoming draft, and there’s no rush to send him right to full-season ball. Now that commissioner Rob Manfred has axed the short-season level between Low A and the complexes, there isn’t an ideal spot for a guy like Nimmala, but I hope the Jays play it conservatively given his age and his upside.

[glory]

Interesting that Law thinks Orelvis can handle 3B defensively. If he can, then that would be fantastic for the Jays who clearly have a hole there.

[Laika]

ZIPS projects Davis Schneider for 12.9 WAR from 2024 through 2027

[L54]

Interesting that Law thinks Orelvis can handle 3B defensively. If he can, then that would be fantastic for the Jays who clearly have a hole there.

 

I think safe to say Orelvis is going to get every chance there until he proves he’s inept

[RobinThicc]

Tieddeman a sell high before his arm falls off

[RustyTrombone]

I think safe to say Orelvis is going to get every chance there until he proves he’s inept

 

IDK, mostly everyone else but Law seems to think Orelvis is ultimately a 2B, the guys close to the team especially seem to think that.

[deanmike]

IDK, mostly everyone else but Law seems to think Orelvis is ultimately a 2B, the guys close to the team especially seem to think that.

 

The team itself gave Orelvis more starts at 2B in AAA last season than SS+3B combined.

[Brownie19]

IDK, mostly everyone else but Law seems to think Orelvis is ultimately a 2B, the guys close to the team especially seem to think that.

 

I think most reports even question if he can play 2nd defensively at the ML level. No idea how someone goes from playing SS 2-3 years ago to being unplayable on the infield. Impressive work.

[Laika]

The team itself gave Orelvis more starts at 2B in AAA last season than SS+3B combined.

 

I think in AA he was 3B and SS then up in AAA he was playing 2B more

 

But that could have been due to who was on Buffalo with him.

[Terminator]

The team itself gave Orelvis more starts at 2B in AAA last season than SS+3B combined.

 

Yeah it was weird. We knew we would need a 3B after Chapman's pending FA. But the viable AAA options all moved off the position.

 

Barger, Orelvis and Palmegiani barely played 3B in AAA. Instead, fringe guys like Lantigua, De Los Santos and Tanner Morris played there.

 

There could be some sort of reason for it that I'm not seeing. But it makes me think the Jays don't think too highly of Barger, Orelvis or Palmegiani's chances to stick at 3rd.

[L54]

IDK, mostly everyone else but Law seems to think Orelvis is ultimately a 2B, the guys close to the team especially seem to think that.

 

Hmmm I guess that sucks for us then

[RustyTrombone]

Yeah it was weird. We knew we would need a 3B after Chapman's pending FA. But the viable AAA options all moved off the position.

 

Barger, Orelvis and Palmegiani barely played 3B in AAA. Instead, fringe guys like Lantigua, De Los Santos and Tanner Morris played there.

 

There could be some sort of reason for it that I'm not seeing. But it makes me think the Jays don't think too highly of Barger, Orelvis or Palmegiani's chances to stick at 3rd.

 

Ya of those 3 guys I think Palmegiani is mostly likely to stick at 3B, even if its less than 50%. Think Scott Mitchell said he looked decent over there in the AFL and some people were impressed. Orelvis is done on the left side and Barger is primary RF now.

[Terminator]

Ya of those 3 guys I think Palmegiani is mostly likely to stick at 3B, even if its less than 50%. Think Scott Mitchell said he looked decent over there in the AFL and some people were impressed. Orelvis is done on the left side and Barger is primary RF now.

 

I suppose it could come down to having a logjam and then making individual decisions on the various players in question.

 

De Los Santos got the majority of the starts at 3B toward the end of the season when the 3 real prospects were in AAA. Perhaps the Jays like him and wanted to get a look at him/see if he could improve with some coaching. Seeing as his value is all glove maybe they felt it necessary to keep him on the left side of the infield? And Jimenez, Clement and others were playing SS so 3B is where they put him?

 

This blocked Orelvis and Parmesan who then switched to 2B and 1B, respectively, which they felt was no big deal because they might move there eventually anyway.

 

Barger apparently has a cannon for an arm and he had never played OF before. Perhaps they felt it was his best chance to get some reps in RF before turning him into a UT player.

 

I suppose it isn't a nail in the coffin of any of Orelivs, Barger and Parmesan playing 3B but it certainly doesn't look great when we knew we would need a 3B and instead were playing fringe org guys at the position instead.

[wilko]

I suppose it could come down to having a logjam and then making individual decisions on the various players in question.

 

De Los Santos got the majority of the starts at 3B toward the end of the season when the 3 real prospects were in AAA. Perhaps the Jays like him and wanted to get a look at him/see if he could improve with some coaching. Seeing as his value is all glove maybe they felt it necessary to keep him on the left side of the infield? And Jimenez, Clement and others were playing SS so 3B is where they put him?

 

This blocked Orelvis and Parmesan who then switched to 2B and 1B, respectively, which they felt was no big deal because they might move there eventually anyway.

 

Barger apparently has a cannon for an arm and he had never played OF before. Perhaps they felt it was his best chance to get some reps in RF before turning him into a UT player.

 

I suppose it isn't a nail in the coffin of any of Orelivs, Barger and Parmesan playing 3B but it certainly doesn't look great when we knew we would need a 3B and instead were playing fringe org guys at the position instead.

 

Biggio and All-Star Espinal are fringe?