General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[deanmike]

Soler is going to be more than 12 I’d think so I’m not in agreement with them.

 

Certain salaries can still be moved out to make it more than 12M (Espinal/Garcia/Richards)

[Terminator]

 

Guess what guys? Everyone s***ing on me for thinking I knew how much they had left to spend were right, and I was wrong...

 

I WAS BEING TOO GENEROUS AND THEY HAVE EVEN LESS THAN I THOUGHT LMFAOOOOOO

 

Some of the s***** offseason ideas on here were more unrealistic than even I imagined lol

 

What is this unhinged rant about?

[Jays24]

What is this unhinged rant about?

 

Fans are getting inpatient with the offseason after ending the season in a super embarrassing fashion? Just a guess lol.

 

Until the free agents are mostly off the board, think we all need to wait to decide what type of offseason this was.

[deanmike]

What is this about?

 

There were some on this board who thought me saying they had 18M left to spend and would pretty much cap spending just under the 2nd threshold was too low of an estimate, and a more realistic estimate of where they would cap spending was just under the 3rd threshold (this was always unrealistic).

 

Turns out even my estimate was being too generous.

[Terminator]

There were some on this board who thought me saying they had 18M left to spend and would pretty much cap spending just under the 2nd threshold was too low of an estimate, and a more realistic estimate of where they would cap spending was just under the 3rd threshold (this was always unrealistic).

 

Turns out even my estimate was being too generous.

 

BNS and Zwelling are probably right but there's a chance they are being fed info from the FO who would like to sign remaining free agents for as cheap as possible.

 

Whether that's Soler or even Chapman, they could be signaling that it's time for the remaining FAs to lower their asking prices if they want to sign with the Jays.

 

And whatever threshold they want to be under, I don't think it's really THAT big of a deal if they go slightly over as the penalties only apply to the overages right? So the penalties just don't amount to that much money if you are 1-3 mil over. Though they do likely want some wiggle room for in-season adds which could play a factor.

[max silver]

According to BNS and Arden Zwelling on their recent At the Letters pod, their understanding is the Blue Jays likely only have around 10-12M left to spend based on Shapiro's comments regarding 2024 budget being similar to 2023.

 

Relevant context, based on their discussion earlier in the pod about Vlad's arb case, they seem to think the Jays are fine with it going to a hearing because

1) Apparently they aren't incentivized to do a Bo-type arb avoidance deal with him, and

2) It's pretty obvious Vlad is going to win his case so the Jays probably aren't worried it could be a relationship-damaging hearing (this idiot's arb ask was 500k lower than what Fangraphs projected he would make, of course he's gonna win).

 

Guess what guys? Everyone s***ing on me for thinking I knew how much they had left to spend were right, and I was wrong...

 

I WAS BEING TOO GENEROUS AND THEY HAVE EVEN LESS THAN I THOUGHT LMFAOOOOOO

 

Some of the s***** offseason ideas on here were more unrealistic than even I imagined lol

 

Sorry to burst your bubble but this is still all speculative so nothing is proven yet.

[deanmike]

BNS and Zwelling are probably right but there's a chance they are being fed info from the FO who would like to sign remaining free agents for as cheap as possible.

 

Whether that's Soler or even Chapman, they could be signaling that it's time for the remaining FAs to lower their asking prices if they want to sign with the Jays.

 

And whatever threshold they want to be under, I don't think it's really THAT big of a deal if they go slightly over as the penalties only apply to the overages right? So the penalties just don't amount to that much money if you are 1-3 mil over. Though they do likely want some wiggle room for in-season adds which could play a factor.

 

I'm not saying it would be a big deal. I've mentioned previously that last seasons final luxury tax payroll was about 4-5M higher than their opening day and also about 4-5M over the 2nd threshold per Spotrac. And last season they capped their offseason spending at just under the 2nd tax threshold (according to Spotrac, Fangraphs says their luxury tax payroll last season was 246M which was 7M under last season's 2nd threshold).

[deanmike]

Sorry to burst your bubble but this is still all speculative so nothing is proven yet.

 

Rogers Sportsnet mouthpieces have historically been pretty plugged in about what the budget is.

[L54]

Sorry to burst your bubble but this is still all speculative so nothing is proven yet.

 

Max what’s your estimate of remaining dollars available to the team?

[John_Havok]

Max what’s your estimate of remaining dollars available to the team?

 

I know this wasn't directed at me, but my feeling is there isn't a dollar limit if you think of "you can't go over X dollars no matter what"

 

It's more of a "if this guy gives us what we need AND it's not a contract that's obviously a massive overpay that makes no sense, spend it"

 

I know that sounds wishy washy, but it's probably as close to reality as possible. Low spending clubs have X dollar limits, high spending clubs don't. Sure there's probably some figure out there that roughly matches those parameters now that the biggest fish are off the market, but it's just not looked at in the same way as a hard limit with only X dollars available.

 

So the answer is really that Atkins has enough money left to do whatever he feels he needs to do, as long as it's not blatantly stupid.

[wamco]

#teamdean

[max silver]

Max what’s your estimate of remaining dollars available to the team?

 

I simply don't know at this point. It's entirely possible that the speculative posts pertaining to the remaining dollars could be correct but at the same time I also see a possibility that the team could spend beyond those levels if the right opportunities are presented. Shapiro and Atkins have always been clear that they have full support of ownership to spend to add talent to the roster and it seems as though they need to present the case to ownership as required when the need to increase payroll presents itself. Atkins has always been up front about his desire to maintain financial flexibility for future years and with upcoming decisions on extensions for the likes of Vlad, Bo and Jansen I could see a DH addition being the final addition to the roster. However having said that I can also see further additions being made if certain players are still lingering on the market when spring training is underway and the dollars and term make sense.

[G-Snarls]

I know this wasn't directed at me, but my feeling is there isn't a dollar limit if you think of "you can't go over X dollars no matter what"

 

It's more of a "if this guy gives us what we need AND it's not a contract that's obviously a massive overpay that makes no sense, spend it"

 

I know that sounds wishy washy, but it's probably as close to reality as possible. Low spending clubs have X dollar limits, high spending clubs don't. Sure there's probably some figure out there that roughly matches those parameters now that the biggest fish are off the market, but it's just not looked at in the same way as a hard limit with only X dollars available.

 

So the answer is really that Atkins has enough money left to do whatever he feels he needs to do, as long as it's not blatantly stupid.

 

Yeah

 

It's worth going over a luxury tax threshold for Ohtani

 

It's not for Soler

[deanmike]

Yeah

 

It's worth going over a luxury tax threshold for Ohtani

 

It's not for Soler

 

Not for Soler, not for JDM, not for Chapman, and/or not for Bellinger (assuming Chapman/Belly each get roughly 20M AAV or more).

 

The Ohtani vs. non-Ohtani budget rumours were always real.

[L54]

Too many fence sitters

[L54]

I am also #teamdean

[deanmike]

Guys cmon, I don't deserve to have my own team. Love y'all and love this board I wouldn't change it for anything.

 

The not overly moderated real banter that goes on here is a unique gem among baseball message boards and possibly sports message boards in general. Sports boards are all too overly moderated these days.

[wamco]

Dean, you ignorant slut

[deanmike]

Dean, you ignorant slut

 

Dude, some sports message boards have like mod bots that auto infract u for saying swear words. Crazy s*** man

[wamco]

I’m not sure you caught the reference

[Spanky99]

I’m not sure you caught the reference

 

[deanmike]

I’m not sure you caught the reference

 

Admittedly never really been much of an SNL guy brutha

[connorp]

Admittedly never really been much of an SNL guy brutha

 

Woke show. Who would’ve thought it would be widely liked here.

[Pendleton]

[Laika]

 

Pretty nuts

 

91 mph FB and 81 knuckleball

 

Think Dickey was like 83 and 76

[Laika]

Guys cmon, I don't deserve to have my own team. Love y'all and love this board I wouldn't change it for anything.

 

The not overly moderated real banter that goes on here is a unique gem among baseball message boards and possibly sports message boards in general. Sports boards are all too overly moderated these days.

 

If there is one thing everyone can agree on it's that we have the best mods and nearly perfect moderation

[Laika]

According to BNS and Arden Zwelling on their recent At the Letters pod, their understanding is the Blue Jays likely only have around 10-12M left to spend based on Shapiro's comments regarding 2024 budget being similar to 2023.

 

Relevant context, based on their discussion earlier in the pod about Vlad's arb case, they seem to think the Jays are fine with it going to a hearing because

1) Apparently they aren't incentivized to do a Bo-type arb avoidance deal with him, and

2) It's pretty obvious Vlad is going to win his case so the Jays probably aren't worried it could be a relationship-damaging hearing (this idiot's arb ask was 500k lower than what Fangraphs projected he would make, of course he's gonna win).

 

Guess what guys? Everyone s***ing on me for thinking I knew how much they had left to spend were right, and I was wrong...

 

I WAS BEING TOO GENEROUS AND THEY HAVE EVEN LESS THAN I THOUGHT LMFAOOOOOO

 

Some of the s***** offseason ideas on here were more unrealistic than even I imagined lol

 

Nobody really thought you were "wrong". Your guess was reasonable - perfectly fair to think the budget will probably be the same as last year.

 

People were mostly taking issue with the definitive nature of your statements.

 

"They only have this much to spend"

"They won't spend last X dollars"

etc.

[connorp]

If there is one thing everyone can agree on it's that we have the best mods and nearly perfect moderation

 

I thought we could all agree on having the greatest color commentator to grace any of the message boards.

[Laika]

I thought we could all agree on having the greatest color commentator to grace any of the message boards.

 

Spanky Martinez?

[Abomination]

Pretty nuts

 

91 mph FB and 81 knuckleball

 

Think Dickey was like 83 and 76

 

I think Dickey was close to 80 mph with the knuckleball before coming to the Jays, and it was absolutely filthy at that speed.