General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Marew]

Who replaces the 200 innings that Bassitt provided though? I really don't understand how there is the thought that the Blue Jays suddenly have an excess of depth after the Rodriguez signing as it's far from a given that he will even succeed in a swing man role.

 

Snell

[BTS]

Who would then fill the roster spots of Biggio+Espinal+Garcia?

 

Clement doesn't even count because he makes league minimum. So trading him and replacing him with a guy making league minimum wouldn't provide any luxury tax relief.

 

There isn't a shortage of pen arms available to the team:

 

Romero

Swanson

Richards

Cabrera

Green

Mayza

White

 

Are all pretty much locks. That's 7 guys. Then you have Rodriguez, Francis, Espino, and whoever else is brought in on MiLB deals or ST tryouts. Garcia is an easy way to cut 5M from the budget if they want to repurpose that money elsewhere.

[deanmike]

There isn't a shortage of pen arms available to the team:

 

Romero

Swanson

Richards

Cabrera

Green

Mayza

White

 

Are all pretty much locks. That's 7 guys. Then you have Rodriguez, Francis, Espino, and whoever else is brought in on MiLB deals or ST tryouts. Garcia is an easy way to cut 5M from the budget if they want to repurpose that money elsewhere.

 

Edited my post to clarify. I basically didn't mean to include Garcia, more so meant how do you replace not only Biggio and Espinal's roster spots but the PAs they are projected to cover as part of the three way 3B platoon?

[John_Havok]

There isn't a shortage of pen arms available to the team:

 

Romero

Swanson

Richards

Cabrera

Green

Mayza

White

 

Are all pretty much locks. That's 7 guys. Then you have Rodriguez, Francis, Espino, and whoever else is brought in on MiLB deals or ST tryouts. Garcia is an easy way to cut 5M from the budget if they want to repurpose that money elsewhere.

 

And then there’s Pop, Pearson, Danner, Little, and Zulueta.

[Jonn]

Everybody would want him

 

John Brebbia just got that much money and he's half as good

 

Jays could move Yimi or Richards or Biggio or Espinal in five seconds if they wanted but why the f*** would they do it right now? They could do it after they sign somebody big. Lmao

 

Cool than we shouldn’t have money problems since teams are lining up for Yimi and take his salary off our hands.

 

We are in absolute desperate need of 2 bats. And will probably need to overpay for both of them. So every cent counts.

[glory]

If Garcia is movable then they should trade him yesterday. There is more supply than demand in the current FA market due to many factors. Freeing up $6m by trading an actual expendable asset is a no brainer. Pearson, Pop, and Danner are already on the 40 man roster. The team wouldn't be scrambling for a replacement.

[Brownie19]

The fact that the Jays are so limited to watch they can spend is exactly why I argued not to have Yimi Garcia option vest making 6 million. Espinal making 2.7 million annoys me as well. Instead we have 18m to find an everyday 3B. Add an Outfielder and a DH.

 

Piss poor asset management. Everyone is saying we can easily trade those guys though. Who wants a middle reliever making 6 million lol.

 

Always so salty...

[Spanky99]

Always so salty...

 

Fire Varsho, Yimi and Espy into the sun.

[Terminator]

Cool than we shouldn’t have money problems since teams are lining up for Yimi and take his salary off our hands.

 

We are in absolute desperate need of 2 bats. And will probably need to overpay for both of them. So every cent counts.

 

We won’t have to overpay. The number of teams who will pay 10 mil for a DH is limited and there are quite a few guys like that out there.

[deanmike]

We won’t have to overpay. The number of teams who will pay 10 mil for a DH is limited and there are quite a few guys like that out there.

 

The AAV of the DH they sign will be closer to 20M than 10M

[Spanky99]

Jays should send Yimi and Espy to the Angels for Drury and one of Cabbage or Thaiss, easy peasy.

[Abomination]

Jays should send Yimi and Espy to the Angels for Drury and one of Cabbage or Thaiss, easy peasy.

 

Or maybe to the Giants for JD Davis.

[Spanky99]

Or maybe to the Giants for JD Davis.

 

Meh, I'd rather Drury, far more ISO.

[glory]

Or maybe to the Giants for JD Davis.

 

Yeah if the Giants get Chapman, then Davis seems like a logical/realistic Jays target.

[Terminator]

The AAV of the DH they sign will be closer to 20M than 10M

 

I don’t really care as long as it’s one year and it should be

[Spanky99]

Imagine pulling Berrios after throwing this filth...

 

 

I guess I should share the article as it's really cool, Richards had 22 Swords on his changeup, dude's kind of sick when he's on...

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/statcast-s-swords-leader-for-every-pitch-type-in-2023

Edited January 22, 2024 by Spanky99

[Laika]

Cool than we shouldn’t have money problems since teams are lining up for Yimi and take his salary off our hands.

 

We are in absolute desperate need of 2 bats. And will probably need to overpay for both of them. So every cent counts.

 

Who said the team has money problems, anyway?

 

They spent a ton of money last year. The team does not appear to care much about the puny little luxury tax surcharges and they aren't particularly close to the bracket where picks start to be pushed back.

 

There is a poster here making a big deal about the tax thresholds but I don't think they matter that much to Toronto tbh.

 

Current estimated luxury tax payroll per Fangraphs is $238,518,453 (this includes arb estimates)

 

$257M is when the tax increases a bit more (doesn't matter if they roll over this)

 

$277M is I think when picks are negatively affected, that is the line they won't likely roll over. But they aren't close to it.

 

The $257M is a soft as f*** line in the sand. They can go over it by a few million without it hurting much.

 

I would say the team "could use" 2 bats but they are only in "desperate need" of one.

 

The only negative impact of going over the lower luxury tax thresholds, other than money, is that the comp pick for Chapman is two rounds worse. It would be before the 3rd if they did not spend into the tax but I think it's two rounds later now. Oh well.

[Jimcanuck]

JD Davis is Biggio level defensively

[MikeM3]

Garcia is easily worth 1/6M. Wouldn't be in a rush to trade him

[deanmike]

Who said the team has money problems, anyway?

 

They spent a ton of money last year. The team does not appear to care much about the puny little luxury tax surcharges and they aren't particularly close to the bracket where picks start to be pushed back.

 

There is a poster here making a big deal about the tax thresholds but I don't think they matter that much to Toronto tbh.

 

Current estimated luxury tax payroll per Fangraphs is $238,518,453 (this includes arb estimates)

 

$257M is when the tax increases a bit more (doesn't matter if they roll over this)

 

$277M is I think when picks are negatively affected, that is the line they won't likely roll over. But they aren't close to it.

 

The $257M is a soft as f*** line in the sand. They can go over it by a few million without it hurting much.

 

I would say the team "could use" 2 bats but they are only in "desperate need" of one.

 

The only negative impact of going over the lower luxury tax thresholds, other than money, is that the comp pick for Chapman is two rounds worse. It would be before the 3rd if they did not spend into the tax but I think it's two rounds later now. Oh well.

To address the bolded, all I have basically been saying is they will spend around the same as last year when looking at luxury tax commitments. They spent to just under the 2nd tax threshold last offseason and spent 5M into the 2nd threshold in season. I think they will do roughly the same this season (actually more than last year regardless of thresholds because the thresholds increase every year).

 

You are high if you think the Jays increase luxury tax commitments by 20M compared to last season and aim to only remain under the 3rd threshold of 277M. That would absolutely qualify as a significant increase in budget which is just a pipe dream.

[Cbert]

I think Rogers must feel okay with spending over the next 2-3 years. It’s our current window of contention and they need to put butts in seats after a massive stadium reno.

 

Even if we keep Vlad and Bo long term, Gausman, Bassitt, and Springer are all off the books in 2-3 years. No reason to avoid one more big splash or two to become the divisional favourite for this window.

 

If they’re worried about keeping both guys, Bo in particular, then maybe the Jays need to be exploring a blockbuster trade to move him now. Maybe a Bo+ for Kim+ framework is what needs to happen. Extend Kim for less money to man SS until Nimmala is ready.

[deanmike]

Just to put things into perspective, if the Jays were to spend as much as 276M in luxury tax commitments for 2024 (just under the 3rd threshold), that would represent roughly a 7% increase in luxury tax commitments from 2023 to 2024 and a tax bill close to triple what it was last season.

 

I can almost guarantee ownership doesn't authorize this after 2023 was viewed within the organization as failing to meet internal expectations.

 

Ownership finally authorized Shatkins to be a tax paying team last offseason because the Vlad+Bo Jays made the playoffs for the first time in a 162 game season, viewed by ownership as an improvement from 2021 where they missed the playoffs after making the playoffs in the shortened 2020 season.

[Dick_Pole]

I agree that the luxury tax is unlikely to be an impossible hurdle. The problem is the team simply can't find anyone worthy to spend the money. At no time this off season have the Jays made it obvious that they are scrounging for spare cash. They have overpaid or fairly paid everyone and haven't made low hanging fruit cost cutting decisions that multiple people have mentioned over the last couple of pages. A guy like Bellinger is likely a bridge too far for the team. So they are stuck paying jobbers in hopes of one WAR improvements here and there.

 

Also brought up by other people, but I'm surprised they haven't taken in any salary dumps yet. Maybe they are working on it. Right now this is probably the best use of payroll flexibility. I think more teams are working on this angle. That's why you still have such a wide list of free agents out there a couple weeks before spring training. Almost like accidental collusion. Let's see if Tatis or someone of his ilk gets moved somewhere in a surprise move. Then we might see the FA market get more active.

[Laika]

To address the bolded, all I have basically been saying is they will spend around the same as last year when looking at luxury tax commitments. They spent to just under the 2nd tax threshold last offseason and spent 5M into the 2nd threshold in season. I think they will do roughly the same this season (actually more than last year regardless of thresholds because the thresholds increase every year).

 

You are high if you think the Jays increase luxury tax commitments by 20M compared to last season and aim to only remain under the 3rd threshold of 277M. That would absolutely qualify as a significant increase in budget which is just a pipe dream.

 

Sir, people are talking about dumping serviceable players like Espinal and Garcia because they make $2.5M and $6M.

[glory]

The team clearly isn’t strapped for cash (the IKF contract proves that) but there is going to be a limit somewhere. In a market where 90% of the free agents will still be available in February, I’d rather have $6m freed up with Garcia moved for something useful when the pen has enough depth to compensate. Ideally they don’t sign IKF and have $7.5m freed up but given the state of the 3B market, maybe that wouldn’t make much of a difference.

 

I agree that absorbing contracts from teams involved the regional sports network bankruptcy is the best play here but there still isn’t any clarity on what the future holds there so teams aren’t doing anything yet.

[wamco]

I’d like to know what the windows of contention are for yanks, sox, rays and orioles. Or is it only us that have a defined one that keeps being used as gospel?

[deanmike]

Sir, people are talking about dumping serviceable players like Espinal and Garcia because they make $2.5M and $6M.

 

People talking about it doesn't mean the Jays are actually going to do it. Some casuals just want to free up money to overpay one of Chapman/Bellinger on top of a DH/OF add (I have actually seen many casuals suggest this unfortunately both on and off this board).

 

What the Jays are actually going to do is settle Vlad's arb case, then use whatever they have left under the 2nd threshold (18M or less) to add 1 DH/OF and call it an offseason. Like last season, they will spend into the 2nd threshold as in season wiggle room, maybe by more than 5M if the 2024 team is looking more promising than last year's team did at the deadline.

[Spanky99]

People talking about it doesn't mean the Jays are actually going to do it. Some casuals just want to free up money to overpay one of Chapman/Bellinger on top of a DH/OF add (I have actually seen many casuals suggest this unfortunately both on and off this board).

 

What the Jays are actually going to do is settle Vlad's arb case, then use whatever they have left under the 2nd threshold (18M or less) to add 1 DH/OF and call it an offseason. Like last season, they will spend into the 2nd threshold as in season wiggle room, maybe by more than 5M if the 2024 team is looking more promising than last year's team did at the deadline.

 

Holy *Rinse and Repeat* Batman!

[wamco]

People talking about it doesn't mean the Jays are actually going to do it. Some casuals just want to free up money to overpay one of Chapman/Bellinger on top of a DH/OF add (I have actually seen many casuals suggest this unfortunately both on and off this board).

 

What the Jays are actually going to do is settle Vlad's arb case, then use whatever they have left under the 2nd threshold (18M or less) to add 1 DH/OF and call it an offseason. Like last season, they will spend into the 2nd threshold as in season wiggle room, maybe by more than 5M if the 2024 team is looking more promising than last year's team did at the deadline.

 

What if you trade Garcia and espinal, sign bellinger/chapman and win the World Series? Is that a bad move?

 

What if you don’t win the World Series but it increases ticket sales as well as secures playoff games netting more money, is it still an overpay?

[max silver]

To address the bolded, all I have basically been saying is they will spend around the same as last year when looking at luxury tax commitments. They spent to just under the 2nd tax threshold last offseason and spent 5M into the 2nd threshold in season. I think they will do roughly the same this season (actually more than last year regardless of thresholds because the thresholds increase every year).

 

You are high if you think the Jays increase luxury tax commitments by 20M compared to last season and aim to only remain under the 3rd threshold of 277M. That would absolutely qualify as a significant increase in budget which is just a pipe dream.

 

Just to put things into perspective, if the Jays were to spend as much as 276M in luxury tax commitments for 2024 (just under the 3rd threshold), that would represent roughly a 7% increase in luxury tax commitments from 2023 to 2024 and a tax bill close to triple what it was last season.

 

I can almost guarantee ownership doesn't authorize this after 2023 was viewed within the organization as failing to meet internal expectations.

Ownership finally authorized Shatkins to be a tax paying team last offseason because the Vlad+Bo Jays made the playoffs for the first time in a 162 game season, viewed by ownership as an improvement from 2021 where they missed the playoffs after making the playoffs in the shortened 2020 season.

 

People talking about it doesn't mean the Jays are actually going to do it. Some casuals just want to free up money to overpay one of Chapman/Bellinger on top of a DH/OF add (I have actually seen many casuals suggest this unfortunately both on and off this board).

 

What the Jays are actually going to do is settle Vlad's arb case, then use whatever they have left under the 2nd threshold (18M or less) to add 1 DH/OF and call it an offseason. Like last season, they will spend into the 2nd threshold as in season wiggle room, maybe by more than 5M if the 2024 team is looking more promising than last year's team did at the deadline.

 

Holy s*** man give the authoritative budget statements a rest already. Unless you are sitting in the team's budgetary meetings you simply don't know what kind of available payroll the team has at their disposal. You are taking a couple of completely non committal statements from Shapiro and Atkins where they left a lot of room for interpretation, misconstruing these into being definitive declarations with no room for change and then posting a constant stream of decisive statements indicating an exact payroll range that the team is going to spend within. Shapiro himself stated that the market will essentially dictate what level they spend to, Atkins has indicated that the team will potentially add only 1 player at current market values, and each of these statements leave an opening for the team to make more moves if the market shrinks to the point where the remaining mid tier free agents eventually sign for mid tier free agent dollars.