General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Krylian]

Justice was still decent with Oakland.

 

That's because the Yankees were paying half his salary. They were paying 4 million dollars to play against them.

[Rusty_Savage]

Yup, more players than holes. Buyers market for dh.

 

Position can be important of course. I recall winning World Series w Winfield

And molitor. Any guesses,

Without looking , at their WAR in 92/93. I haven’t looked yet but I’m gonna guess it’s lower than it should be

Winfield was 3.8 fWAR

 

Molitor was 4.8 fWAR

 

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[BigCecil]

Yeah there are too many options out there to overspend on a DH. Among those options are Horwitz who projects about as well as any of them.

 

Ross will wait until February and they'll start to realize that the trucks aren't being backed up and we'll get a good one on a one year deal.

 

The Teo deal set the market. And it’s not what they hoped for. LGJ deal might be an outlier for a bat with limited D abilities or pure DH.

[glory]

The Teo deal set the market. And it’s not what they hoped for. LGJ deal might be an outlier for a bat with limited D abilities or pure DH.

 

I think the player Teoscar hurt most was Soler. Everyone else was likely to get a 1 year deal anyway (JDM, Hoskins, Joc, Pham, etc). Although it's possible those players want more than 1 year and that's the hold up. I agree, just wait out the market. Someone is going to settle for less. It won't be a Boras client, so JDM/Hoskins are probably out, but Soler/Joc is a strong possibility.

[BigCecil]

I think the player Teoscar hurt most was Soler. Everyone else was likely to get a 1 year deal anyway (JDM, Hoskins, Joc, Pham, etc). Although it's possible those players want more than 1 year and that's the hold up. I agree, just wait out the market. Someone is going to settle for less. It won't be a Boras client, so JDM/Hoskins are probably out, but Soler/Joc is a strong possibility.

 

For sure on Soler. I haven’t looked at them side by side but since 2019 I’d guess Teo is more consistently valuable. Soler had 1 monster HR year and a pretty good one. But 0 D value.

[Stangstag]

For sure on Soler. I haven’t looked at them side by side but since 2019 I’d guess Teo is more consistently valuable. Soler had 1 monster HR year and a pretty good one. But 0 D value.

 

2/25 for Soler? 3/30 maybe?

 

I’d take that all day.

[John_Havok]

Every arb eligible Jay has signed with the exception of Vlad

[Sorrow]

Every arb eligible Jay has signed with the exception of Vlad

 

Jays number was 18.05m I think and Guerrero was 19.9m. So a big difference.

[John_Havok]

Jays number was 18.05m I think and Guerrero was 19.9m. So a big difference.

 

If they go to a hearing Vlad is winning my that all day long.

[Sorrow]

Every arb eligible Jay has signed with the exception of Vlad

 

If they go to a hearing Vlad is winning my that all day long.

 

I could see it going both ways. The comp is Alonso and Alonso is better. He’s a better hitter, better fielder, better base runner. I do think he will likely get his number. I know there’s comments about him signing a two year extension but I think the team wants to see what he does in 2024 as if it’s a repeat of 2023 I could see talks of non tender being sounded.

[Jonn]

Every arb eligible Jay has signed with the exception of Vlad

 

Good he doesn’t deserve that extra money. He had a terrible Season. Maybe this can fuel and motivate him. Hope they tear him apart in an arbitration meeting.

[John_Havok]

I could see it going both ways. The comp is Alonso and Alonso is better. He’s a better hitter, better fielder, better base runner. I do think he will likely get his number. I know there’s comments about him signing a two year extension but I think the team wants to see what he does in 2024 as if it’s a repeat of 2023 I could see talks of non tender being sounded.

 

Well the halfway point of those numbers is 19 million so if those are the real numbers that are going to and arb hearing...I don't see it going the Jays way with his overall HR totals

[Jonn]

2/25 for Soler? 3/30 maybe?

 

I’d take that all day.

 

Jays seem like they will pay more to get him to sign less years. Everybody would feel better about 2 years. 2 years and 30 million would be my bet.

[John_Havok]

Good he doesn’t deserve that extra money. He had a terrible Season. Maybe this can fuel and motivate him. Hope they tear him apart in an arbitration meeting.

 

Arb takes his entire body of work into account, not just the most recent.

 

As much as Vlad has underachieved his skill level he's still in pretty rarified air when it comes to his numbers over the first 4 years of service time.

[Marew]

Vlad probably knows they will bring a scale to the meeting and take off his shirt. That’s why he’s been working out. He wants to wear his “bust” jersey next season. Maybe a bunch of rich white guys poking his belly will motivate him.

[Jonn]

Arb takes his entire body of work into account, not just the most recent.

 

As much as Vlad has underachieved his skill level he's still in pretty rarified air when it comes to his numbers over the first 4 years of service time.

 

Which is kind of a broken system if you think about it. He's getting a raise regardless. Why would he get his largest raise after his worst Season. The only reason he's played longer lol.

[glory]

I think a two year deal is very likely for Vlad. Even if he has a repeat of 2023, I don’t think they’d non tender him, so might as well get cost certainty for 2025. He could have a 5.0 WAR or 0.5 WAR next season and neither scenario would be shocking. That’s the frustrating part.

[Jonn]

I think they go year to year with Vlad. Sure possibly they just sign him through the remainder of his arbitration years like they did with Bo last year. But if the plan is to sign Vlad long term I don't think they save much money giving him a long term deal now opposed to him having a big 2024. He's still an overweight First Baseman who has defensive questions. He's not going to break the market. It would be amazing if he was even half the player he was in 21.

[WryNGinger]

Definitely feel like this a big "message sent" from the Jays front office. With rumours of him not wanting to follow the Jays coaching staff's recommendations on his swing correction along with bad base running decisions and just a general "you are not on the same page as the players we are bringing in" it really feels like the FO is saying "put up or shut up" for this next year. They are pretty much saying "you are not the player you think you are" to Vladdy while they still control his rights.

[G-Snarls]

Blue Jays

 

Trevor Richards (5.084): $2.15MM agreement today (per The Athletic’s Kaitlin McGrath)

Danny Jansen (5.050): $5.2MM agreement today (via FanSided’s Robert Murray)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.157): Did not reach agreement, will file figures (per Feinsand)

Tim Mayza (4.156): $3.59MM agreement today (via Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith)

Cavan Biggio (4.129): $4.21MM agreement today (via Morosi)

Erik Swanson (4.096): $2.75MM agreement today (via Nicholson-Smith)

Jordan Romano (4.051): $7.75MM agreement today (via McDaniel)

Genesis Cabrera (4.011): $1.5125MM agreement today (via MLB.com’s Jon Morosi)

Santiago Espinal (3.149): $2.725MM agreement today (via Morosi)

Daulton Varsho (3.128): $5.65MM agreement today (via Feinsand)

Alejandro Kirk (3.047): $2.8MM agreement today (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi)

Nate Pearson (3.005): $800K agreement today (per McGrath)

[harvey16]

With what Vladdy is projected to get in Arb this year, Bichette contract extension last year is looking like a steal now. Bo would easily be getting 20M in are this year had he not signed that extension. He's only getting $11M this year and $16M next year.

[John_Havok]

Which is kind of a broken system if you think about it. He's getting a raise regardless. Why would he get his largest raise after his worst Season. The only reason he's played longer lol.

 

The arb system is broken for sure but not because a guy gets a raise after a down year. It's broken because young guys like him are chronically underpaid whilst having the best years of their careers.

[John_Havok]

With what Vladdy is projected to get in Arb this year, Bichette contract extension last year is looking like a steal now. Bo would easily be getting 20M in are this year had he not signed that extension. He's only getting $11M this year and $16M next year.

 

....uh no.

[mphenhef]

With what Vladdy is projected to get in Arb this year, Bichette contract extension last year is looking like a steal now. Bo would easily be getting 20M in are this year had he not signed that extension. He's only getting $11M this year and $16M next year.

 

The arb system doesn't quite work that way. Vlad is in his 3rd year of arb due to super 2 status while Bo would only be in his second year. while Bo has been the better player recently, Vlad's near MVP season still weighs heavily in his favour for comps and led to a high starting point as he entered arb. That would account for a quite large difference between what he would file at this year and what Bo would have filed at.

[deanmike]

[wamco]

Winfield was 3.8 fWAR

 

Molitor was 4.8 fWAR

 

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Yes Laika was correct. Winfield fell completely off after that season:

.3

-.4

-.8

[Frenchsoup]

Looks like we're in heavy on Soler...

 

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/jorge-soler-is-reportedly-choosing-between-2-teams-and-the-blue-jays-are-one-of-them

[Frenchsoup]

Love what we're paying Genisis Chad Green Swanson and Richard's. All valuable contributors for next year.

[Jays24]

 

Worst case scenario confirmed. Going from Ohtani/Soto to IFK... gonna be hard to get excited until the Jays show otherwise on the field.

[Rusty_Savage]

I've never heard of Andrew Havok and he has only 1,800 followers. I'd take it with a grain of salt.

 

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