Davis Schneider appreciation thread

[Spanky99]

Currently Schneider has the third highest HR/FB% compared to all Qualified hitters. Ohtani and Burger are 1-2.

 

Schneider's is 27.3% and his highest in the minors was 18-19% so I imagine some regression to the mean is in order!

 

You think?

[Masterbather]

That's interesting to hear Lonegan say that.

 

During last year when Judge hit 62 (and ESPN force fed me live coverage of his ABs while I watched CFB) it seemed like everything he hit out of the park was a meatball.

 

So if Schneider just keeps hitting meatballs out he should just be fine.

 

Yeah but how did Judge get those meatballs? Because when he's on he has the ability to take incredibly close and very good pitchers pitches that are outside the zone and foul off pitchers pitches on the edges. That's what allows great hitters to be great hitters and wait for meatballs.

[Terminator]

Yeah but how did Judge get those meatballs? Because when he's on he has the ability to take incredibly close and very good pitchers pitches that are outside the zone and foul off pitchers pitches on the edges. That's what allows great hitters to be great hitters and wait for meatballs.

 

I agree with that. It's not a knock on Judge.

 

And for what it's worth Davis Schneider currently carries a better whiff rate than Judge has had in any single season throughout his career.

[Spanky99]

Yeah but how did Judge get those meatballs? Because when he's on he has the ability to take incredibly close and very good pitchers pitches that are outside the zone and foul off pitchers pitches on the edges. That's what allows great hitters to be great hitters and wait for meatballs.

 

Tips.

[Spanky99]

I agree with that. It's not a knock on Judge.

 

And for what it's worth Davis Schneider currently carries a better whiff rate than Judge has had in any single season throughout his career.

 

Please, stop.

[BCZ]

Please, stop.

 

*****************

*Schneider > Judge*

*****************

 

*This message was brought to you by the official judge of major league baseball players.

[Spanky99]

*****************

*Schneider > Judge*

*****************

 

*This message was brought to you by the official judge of major league baseball players.

 

That was some work, mate.

[Nursehoneybadger]

I would rather give Snider 360m. Judge contract will be worse than Chris Davis. Call me in 3 years.

[Spanky99]

lol

[Laika]

Schneider had some lofty walk rates in the minors.

 

That 21% K rate in 2023 AAA probably translates into almost 30% in the big leagues.

 

He looks like a TTO dude. Projections agree.

 

Actually, I think I found the perfect comp for Schneider. Dan Uggla.

 

11th round pick

rule 5 pick

MLB debut at 26 years old

career .241/.336/.447/.783 hitter

11.4% walk rate, 24.3% K rate, .206 career ISO

peak WAR 4.6

below average but acceptable 2B defender

[BigCecil]

Schneider had some lofty walk rates in the minors.

 

That 21% K rate in 2023 AAA probably translates into almost 30% in the big leagues.

 

He looks like a TTO dude. Projections agree.

 

Actually, I think I found the perfect comp for Schneider. Dan Uggla.

 

11th round pick

rule 5 pick

MLB debut at 26 years old

career .241/.336/.447/.783 hitter

11.4% walk rate, 24.3% K rate, .206 career ISO

peak WAR 4.6

below average but acceptable 2B defender

 

If he is Uggla thats a big win for the Org at 2B.

 

Peak WAR for Biggio 2.7 and Espy 2.3

[MikeM3]

It's hard to find comps for a contact% that obscenely low. It's like Gallo, Sano and Keston Hiura level

[Terminator]

Please, stop.

 

Stop what? Masterbather said Judge gets the meatballs because he doesn't chase. I just pointed out that Schneider's chase rate is elite. The comparison's stop there since he has mediocre exit velos.

[BigCecil]

Stop what? Masterbather said Judge gets the meatballs because he doesn't chase. I just pointed out that Schneider's chase rate is elite. The comparison's stop there since he has mediocre exit velos.

 

Is THE SHERIFF losing a couple MPH off his fastball? People are asking.

[Terminator]

Is THE SHERIFF losing a couple MPH off his fastball?

 

Yeah, that whole schtick got stale months ago. I'll put out a Biggio banger every once in a while but for the most part I don't troll anymore.

[Laika]

It's hard to find comps for a contact% that obscenely low. It's like Gallo, Sano and Keston Hiura level

 

His SwStr% and Contact% and O-Swing% are all misaligned. Some of them will change drastically.

 

His O-Swing% is elite. It's in Mookie Betts, Ed Julien, Juan Soto, Craig Biggio's son, Lars Nootbaar territory.

 

The contact% is very poor but his SwStr% is not quite as poor.

 

It's funny that people think he is just being fed meatballs. He actually has a very low zone% and first pitch strike% against him. Pitchers are generally trying to get him to chase and he is not chasing.

 

He seems to have an actual skill at hammering pitches at the very top of the zone. Four of his homers are on pitches at the upper limit of the zone (almost balls). Many players can't pull those in the air consistently. Vlad doesn't have a single HR this year on a pitch at the top of the zone. Neither does Springer.

 

Opposing teams will stop throwing him high fastballs very soon. They will start staying down and away. Hopefully he's not a breaking ball chaser, that could be bad.

[BigCecil]

Yeah, that whole schtick got stale months ago. I'll put out a Biggio banger every once in a while but for the most part I don't troll anymore.

 

Well I'm glad to see you are sticking with your low key under the radar Avatar at least!

[Terminator]

Well I'm glad to see you are sticking with your low key under the radar Avatar at least!

 

I've changed it twice in 10 years. I'll get it around to it.

[wilko]

Schneider had some lofty walk rates in the minors.

 

That 21% K rate in 2023 AAA probably translates into almost 30% in the big leagues.

 

He looks like a TTO dude. Projections agree.

 

Actually, I think I found the perfect comp for Schneider. Dan Uggla.

 

11th round pick

rule 5 pick

MLB debut at 26 years old

career .241/.336/.447/.783 hitter

11.4% walk rate, 24.3% K rate, .206 career ISO

peak WAR 4.6

below average but acceptable 2B defender

 

Nice comp. I'd take Dan Uggla 2.0 anytime.

[MikeM3]

His SwStr% and Contact% and O-Swing% are all misaligned. Some of them will change drastically.

 

His O-Swing% is elite. It's in Mookie Betts, Ed Julien, Juan Soto, Craig Biggio's son, Lars Nootbaar territory.

 

The contact% is very poor but his SwStr% is not quite as poor.

 

It's funny that people think he is just being fed meatballs. He actually has a very low zone% and first pitch strike% against him. Pitchers are generally trying to get him to chase and he is not chasing.

 

He seems to have an actual skill at hammering pitches at the very top of the zone. Four of his homers are on pitches at the upper limit of the zone (almost balls). Many players can't pull those in the air consistently. Vlad doesn't have a single HR this year on a pitch at the top of the zone. Neither does Springer.

 

Opposing teams will stop throwing him high fastballs very soon. They will start staying down and away. Hopefully he's not a breaking ball chaser, that could be bad.

 

His csw% is 34 too.That's a really bad number. His K% might baloon soon unless he adjusts, which he might, who knows

[Captain_Obvious]

Schneider is at 1.9 fWAR now in 20 games (A few of these are just as a pinch hitter). His 18.3 BB% is the most fap-worthy part.

[metafour]

His csw% is 34 too.That's a really bad number. His K% might baloon soon unless he adjusts, which he might, who knows

 

But you're reading that wrong. His CSW% is absurdly high because he has a 20% CStr% which is incredibly high. The reason why it's so high is because he is deliberately being ultra-selective at the plate. He seems to have zero appetite for swinging at pitches that he doesn't think he will hit well. So far, this type of strategy works for him because it's paired with an elite chase-rate, which means that even if he watches a few called strikes go by him as he's "waiting" for a fastball, he can work his way back into the count by taking balls once the pitcher tries to get him to chase off the plate. His overall Swing% is very low at 38.6%.

 

It's pretty much the opposite of Vlad's approach wherein he tries to cover every pitch at every part of the zone.

 

Dan Uggla is a great comparison. Uggla had very similar plate-discipline tendencies although to a less exaggerated sense. Everything about Schneider's data is exaggerated right now.

[Laika]

His csw% is 34 too.That's a really bad number. His K% might baloon soon unless he adjusts, which he might, who knows

 

His K% is like.. 60% or 70% stabilized at this point.

 

I would expect some of these extreme granular percentages to regress towards normalcy. Just not sure if they will do it in the good or bad way. I guess we should assume they will go in the bad direction.

 

Weird player.

 

There aren't many players who barely swing but when they do they whiff 14% of the time or more. The ones who do show up on the 2023 search are generally not good examples. Trayce Thompson, Taylor Trammell, Trevor Larnach, Jared Walsh, David Villar, Sam Hilliard, Wil Myers. Noda. Judge and Stanton are close to 14%.

 

One "good" comp on the PD side is Ryan Noda. His contact, swstr, called strike, and swing% are all kind of similar.

[Masterbather]

Opposing teams will stop throwing him high fastballs very soon. They will start staying down and away. Hopefully he's not a breaking ball chaser, that could be bad.

 

That's a concern of mine. Not just if he can avoid swinging down and away outside of the zone but what does he do down and away in the zone? I don't think he's got enough juice in his bat to hit those in the air for extra base hits consistently, he's going to have to foul them off or rope line drives the other way.

 

Dude appears to have squeezed so much out of his talent already, it seems unfair for us to expect much more out of him and yet I hope he keeps surprising.

[MikeM3]

His K% is like.. 60% or 70% stabilized at this point.

 

I would expect some of these extreme granular percentages to regress towards normalcy. Just not sure if they will do it in the good or bad way. I guess we should assume they will go in the bad direction.

 

Weird player.

 

There aren't many players who barely swing but when they do they whiff 14% of the time or more. The ones who do show up on the 2023 search are generally not good examples. Trayce Thompson, Taylor Trammell, Trevor Larnach, Jared Walsh, David Villar, Sam Hilliard, Wil Myers. Noda. Judge and Stanton are close to 14%.

 

One "good" comp on the PD side is Ryan Noda. His contact, swstr, called strike, and swing% are all kind of similar.

 

Agreed. He's like a weird test case

[metafour]

From today's Keith Law chat:

 

 

Q: Thoughts on Davis Schneider's Ruthian start? Just a guy, or a starter on a contending team?

 

A: Just a guy, without a position.

[Captain_Obvious]

From today's Keith Law chat:

 

Every single prospect expert will say just a guy at this point as none of them predicted him to be a big leaguer. It is too early for them to change their mind.

[John_Havok]

Every single prospect expert will say just a guy at this point as none of them predicted him to be a big leaguer. It is too early for them to change their mind.

 

But, to be fair, if every baseball players future was easily predicted by their first ~80 PAs, there would be a ton of different names in the MLB history books and many that wouldn't be there at all.

[hanton]

From today's Keith Law chat:

 

the proper response and Law knows better, every now and then a player like this comes along and could prove all the scouts wrong, a little early but it looks like he might have a chance to stick as a major league regular. It might all come down to if he can be at least average in the field because the bat might play.

Edited September 9, 2023 by hanton

[ColdPint]

Was Jeff Kent ever a highly regarded prospect?