2023 Trade Deadline

[Daniel Labude]

Do you move Vladdy for Ohtani straight up if Ohtani comes with a contract extension at roughly 10/500M?

 

There will not be an extension

[RobinThicc]

From Passan

 

Despite currently holding the final wild-card spot, Toronto hasn't done enough to convince ownership to open up the coffers, leaving the Blue Jays precisely where they've been all season: the muddled middle. That said, when asked where Ohtani could wind up if he's moved, three of the most popular answers from executives are Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Toronto (the Blue Jays are a longer shot due to a thinner farm system).

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/38058400/mlb-trade-deadline-2023-jeff-passan-rumors-buzz

 

Odd that Rogers would just close the wallets now. They're already investing so much, just go all the way

[Daniel Labude]

Guerrero + Tiedemann for Ohtani would be roughly fair value IMO, but the Jays would have to feel pretty confident that they could get Ohtani extended, because if he walked in a few moths that one would sting.

 

That would be fireable if it didn't come with a title

[Stangstag]

Can we stop talking/acting like Ohtani is actually getting traded? The Angels are only 4.5 games out of a playoff spot

[Stangstag]

From Passan

 

 

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/38058400/mlb-trade-deadline-2023-jeff-passan-rumors-buzz

 

Odd that Rogers would just close the wallets now. They're already investing so much, just go all the way

 

Maybe the renos have gone over budget

[Omar]

To put things in perspective if we look back to 2018 when Machado got traded to the Dodgers the Orioles got Yusniel Diaz who was one of their top prospects plus Dean Kremer, Zachary Pop, Rylan Bannon, and Breyvic Valera.

 

An Ohtani trade is going to dwarf that haul.

 

If anyone thinks Vladdy plus Tiedmann gets Ohtani then keep dreaming. You’re not even in the ballpark.

[John_Havok]

That would be fireable if it didn't come with a title

 

So should having Ohtani and Trout for 6 years and not making the playoffs.

[John_Havok]

Can we stop talking/acting like Ohtani is actually getting traded? The Angels are only 4.5 games out of a playoff spot

 

Starting a series with Detroit tonight, then 3 games in Toronto, and then going to Atlanta before the deadline. I suspect they will be further away from a wildcard by the deadline

[Daniel Labude]

So should having Ohtani and Trout for 6 years and not making the playoffs.

 

Definitely fireable. Especially if they don't resign Ohtani

[John_Havok]

Definitely fireable. Especially if they don't resign Ohtani

 

If that was a possibility it would have been done already.

[metafour]

To put things in perspective if we look back to 2018 when Machado got traded to the Dodgers the Orioles got Yusniel Diaz who was one of their top prospects plus Dean Kremer, Zachary Pop, Rylan Bannon, and Breyvic Valera.

 

An Ohtani trade is going to dwarf that haul.

 

If anyone thinks Vladdy plus Tiedmann gets Ohtani then keep dreaming. You’re not even in the ballpark.

 

Uhm, Yusniel Diaz wasn't even the Dodgers best prospect at the time he was traded. He immediately scuffled after being traded and fell to #71 on BA's rankings in 2019. The rest of those guys you named were decent throw ins.

 

You just kind of proved the point. The Orioles didn't even get one elite prospect for Machado. Diaz was never an "elite" prospect, not with the Dodgers and definitely not with the Orioles.

 

All of those guys you just named put together are not even close to Guerrero. So I'm not exactly sure how you just named those guys and then concluded with "Guerrero and Tiedemann aren't even in the ballpark". You realize that Guerrero is approaching ~10 MLB WAR and is under control for multiple seasons, correct?

 

Tiedemann alone is worth as much as Yusniel Diaz. He only "dropped" in rankings because of a non-significant injury.

[John_Havok]

Uhm, Yusniel Diaz wasn't even the Dodgers best prospect at the time he was traded. He immediately scuffled after being traded and fell to #71 on BA's rankings in 2019. The rest of those guys you named were decent throw ins.

 

You just kind of proved the point. The Orioles didn't even get one elite prospect for Machado. Diaz was never an "elite" prospect, not with the Dodgers and definitely not with the Orioles.

 

All of those guys you just named put together are not even close to Guerrero. So I'm not exactly sure how you just named those guys and then concluded with "Guerrero and Tiedemann aren't even in the ballpark". You realize that Guerrero is approaching ~10 MLB WAR and is under control for multiple seasons, correct?

 

Tiedemann alone is worth as much as Yusniel Diaz. He only "dropped" in rankings because of a non-significant injury.

 

Who made that trade for the Orioles?

[Omar]

Uhm, Yusniel Diaz wasn't even the Dodgers best prospect at the time he was traded. He immediately scuffled after being traded and fell to #71 on BA's rankings in 2019. The rest of those guys you named were decent throw ins.

 

You just kind of proved the point. The Orioles didn't even get one elite prospect for Machado. Diaz was never an "elite" prospect, not with the Dodgers and definitely not with the Orioles.

 

All of those guys you just named put together are not even close to Guerrero. So I'm not exactly sure how you just named those guys and then concluded with "Guerrero and Tiedemann aren't even in the ballpark". You realize that Guerrero is approaching ~10 MLB WAR and is under control for multiple seasons, correct?

 

Tiedemann alone is worth as much as Yusniel Diaz. He only "dropped" in rankings because of a non-significant injury.

 

I think Diaz was there no. 4 prospect at the time. You can't dwell on what happened after just the value at the time. And if we're talking about decline, well Vladdyy....

Again an Ohtani trade would "dwarf" that haul. We're talking generational talent, not merely a great player.

 

Kind of a mute point anyways, we'll get a Tim Anderson or Grichuk type. That is more Atkins modus operandi.

[Laika]

Atkins is a Chad.

 

This is the man who has signed stars like George Springer and Kevin Gausman and traded for blue-chip deadline studs like Jose Berrios.

 

Atkins is anything but gun-shy. He is not afraid of trading top prospects. He chases big ticket talent.

 

Toronto probably doesn't get Ohtani for obvious reasons but put some damn respect on Atkins' name.

[glory]

From Passan

 

 

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/38058400/mlb-trade-deadline-2023-jeff-passan-rumors-buzz

 

Odd that Rogers would just close the wallets now. They're already investing so much, just go all the way

 

They are a tax team for the first time and barely holding on to a WC spot. Rogers might have a point here, for once. This is not the team to double down on. Only Ohtani would make a big enough difference to justify the added expense, and there’s like a 5% chance he’s actually traded (and I’m rounding up).

 

It seems like the Jays finally have some prospects in AAA who are close, as well as Tiedemann when he’s healthy. If Atkins’ job is safe, and there’s no reason to believe it’s in danger, then he should have a longer term vision in mind here. They still have 2024-25 to add, and sprinkling in some prospects into big league holes is going to need to happen if they want to extend any sort of competitive window (and you know Rogers won’t want to rebuild after 2025).

 

Add depth pieces, preferably controllable with upside, get into the playoffs, and then hope for the best.

[metafour]

I think Diaz was there no. 4 prospect at the time. You can't dwell on what happened after just the value at the time.

 

Right, so at the trade deadline Machado was already up to 4 fWAR that season (he finished with 7 fWAR) and yet all Baltimore could get for him was LA's 4th best prospect and 4 other guys who were "lottery picks".

 

You're literally proving the point. Diaz was a Top 100 prospect, but he was nowhere near a "superstar prospect".

 

I mean, the final point here is that not one of those 5 players that the Orioles acquired for Machado are a key piece in their current success. The best player there is Dean Kremer and he's putting up a 0.5 fWAR season for Baltimore. He's also the only player still with the team.

 

That package was not "a lot" at all. And this isn't even hindsight talking, you just said it yourself: they got LA's 4th best prospect and 4 other mid-tier guys, for an elite player (Machado). Yes Ohtani is worth more than Machado, but I don't think you understand that Guerrero (even with his "decline") and Tiedemann is hilariously more than that trash-dump list of players that LA traded for Machado. Vladimir Guerrero is a young MLB regular, he's not a "prospect". That has more value than you seem to think it does. How do we know? Well, all 5 of those players put together don't have anywhere near Guerrero's career fWAR. He's THAT far above those "prospects" ended up being.

 

We're talking generational talent, not merely a great player

 

Again, this is just a buzz sentence that doesn't actually correlate with real trade valuation. It's 3 months of a player. The fact that it's a "generational player" doesn't magically mean that anyone is trading multiple MLB players and/or elite prospects for what is still at the end of the day a rental. No, Ohtani doesn't even guarantee anyone a WS win. The Angels don't have as much bargaining power as you seem to think they do, and all they can do is trade him for the best package presented to them, or hold onto him like idiots.

 

If you've followed the trade deadline recently, you'd know that teams are very reluctant to part with elite prospects. The Jays literally got two years of Matt Chapman for Gunnar Hoglund (who hadn't even thrown a pro pitch yet and was coming off TJ surgery) and Kevin Smith. But now for some reason some of you think that 3 months of Ohtani is going to land the Angels proven MLB stars with control, or super-elite prospects? 3 months of Ohtani has a numerical value - the fact that he's a "generational talent" doesn't mean that teams will defy common logic all of a sudden.

[Laika]

They are a tax team for the first time and barely holding on to a WC spot. Rogers might have a point here, for once. This is not the team to double down on. Only Ohtani would make a big enough difference to justify the added expense, and there’s like a 5% chance he’s actually traded (and I’m rounding up).

 

It seems like the Jays finally have some prospects in AAA who are close, as well as Tiedemann when he’s healthy. If Atkins’ job is safe, and there’s no reason to believe it’s in danger, then he should have a longer term vision in mind here. They still have 2024-25 to add, and sprinkling in some prospects into big league holes is going to need to happen if they want to extend any sort of competitive window (and you know Rogers won’t want to rebuild after 2025).

 

Add depth pieces, preferably controllable with upside, get into the playoffs, and then hope for the best.

 

Yeah

 

Toronto's mid-long term financial/competitive outlook is not amazing. Lots of $$ tied up in aging pitchers. Lots of players getting more expensive in arbitration next year and the year after.

 

Ownership can't just add payroll indefinitely...

[Olerud363]

They are a tax team for the first time and barely holding on to a WC spot. Rogers might have a point here, for once. This is not the team to double down on. Only Ohtani would make a big enough difference to justify the added expense, and thereÂ’s like a 5% chance heÂ’s actually traded (and IÂ’m rounding up).

 

It seems like the Jays finally have some prospects in AAA who are close, as well as Tiedemann when heÂ’s healthy. If AtkinsÂ’ job is safe, and thereÂ’s no reason to believe itÂ’s in danger, then he should have a longer term vision in mind here. They still have 2024-25 to add, and sprinkling in some prospects into big league holes is going to need to happen if they want to extend any sort of competitive window (and you know Rogers wonÂ’t want to rebuild after 2025).

 

Add depth pieces, preferably controllable with upside, get into the playoffs, and then hope for the best.

 

It depends if it is short or long term money.

 

Look at the question the other way. What amount would you increase the 2023 payroll by to add 1.5 projected wins? Wouldn't do it at all, 1 million? 10 million?

 

If Rogers is saying they wouldn't spend any 2023 money to add 2023 wins that's dumb.

 

I agree it's fine not to add any longer term payroll.

[Olerud363]

Who made that trade for the Orioles?

 

Whoever ran the team in 2018 before Mike Elias.

[Brownie19]

The Score just issued a story on the trade deadline with some hypothetical trades...

 

Ohtani & Moore for Kjerstad, Westburg, Joey Ortiz & Cade Povich

 

Montgomery & Carleson for Gil, Beeter & Oswaldo Cabrera

 

Snell for Manzardo & Patino

 

Goldschmidt & Romero for Meyers, Arrighetti, Ullola & Colton Gordon

 

Bellinger for Barger & Pearson

[Terminator]

Bellinger for Barger & Pearson

 

[John_Havok]

Whoever ran the team in 2018 before Mike Elias.

 

Dan Duquette. He was also widely lambasted for that trade for not getting near enough value back. Either way, Ohtani isnt going to the Os so it's all really just pointless banter

[Terminator]

Supercut of "rock star" Cody Bellinger lacing doubles all across the ballpark this year.

 

 

What a talent he is. Great for baseball that he's back in MVP form.

 

Great signing by the Cubs. It's a credit to their analytics team to know that he'd be able to repeatedly hit doubles like this to help propel him to a 60 point over performance compared to his xwOBA.

[Omar]

That package was not "a lot" at all. And this isn't even hindsight talking, you just said it yourself: they got LA's 4th best prospect and 4 other mid-tier guys, for an elite player (Machado). Yes Ohtani is worth more than Machado, but I don't think you understand that Guerrero (even with his "decline") and Tiedemann is hilariously more than that trash-dump list of players that LA traded for Machado. Vladimir Guerrero is a young MLB regular, he's not a "prospect". That has more value than you seem to think it does. How do we know? Well, all 5 of those players put together don't have anywhere near Guerrero's career fWAR. He's THAT far above those "prospects" ended up being.....

 

I think we have a reading comprehension problem on this board (especially after last nights gdt).

 

I don't know why you put "a lot" in quotation marks addressed to me. I didn't use those words.

 

Tiedemann is yet another case of loving home cooking and Blue Jay fans of propping up our own prospects. Yeah, he may be a no.2 starter if/when he makes the show. The last time I read BA prospectus he had dropped to mid fifties in their top 100 ranking. Tiedemann is no phenom, so don't try to sell me.

 

Looking at career fwar after the fact is useless when addressing a trade at the time, without hindsight or experiential bias.

 

Lastly, my point was to give "perspective" based on previous star, in this case Machado, being traded. My point stands, Ohtani's value will dwarf that of Machado (IF he gets moved). No team will throw money on rental (well maybe Padres or Mets) without debating the reality of signing Ohtani beyond this season. That would be the height of stupidity.

[Omar]

Atkins is a Chad.

 

This is the man who has signed stars like George Springer and Kevin Gausman and traded for blue-chip deadline studs like Jose Berrios.

 

Atkins is anything but gun-shy. He is not afraid of trading top prospects. He chases big ticket talent.

 

Toronto probably doesn't get Ohtani for obvious reasons but put some damn respect on Atkins' name.

 

Hey, I'm one of the few defenders of Atkins on this board but there is a reality to this season, given current payroll, of what you can expect from the trade deadline.

[John_Havok]

Kike Hernandez traded to the Dodgers. The Sox are receiving Nick Robertson and Justin Hagenman, tweets Jeff Passan of ESPN.

 

Boston will pay down $2.5MM of Hernandez’s salary

Edited July 25, 2023 by John_Havok

[metafour]

I don't know why you put "a lot" in quotation marks addressed to me. I didn't use those words.

 

I used that term because you clearly presented that trade package as if it was a big deal, when in fact it wasn't at all. It was one Top 100 prospect and 4 mid-level throw ins.

 

Tiedemann is yet another case of loving home cooking and Blue Jay fans of propping up our own prospects. Yeah, he may be a no.2 starter if/when he makes the show. The last time I read BA prospectus he had dropped to mid fifties in their top 100 ranking. Tiedemann is no phenom, so don't try to sell me.

 

Tiedemann entered the season as #31 on BA's Top 100 and only dropped because he suffered a non-serious injury and didn't pitch. He is currently #50 on their list but is back pitching and could easily shoot back up if he closes strong. I never said that he was a "phenom", I said that he is easily worth as much as Yusniel Diaz was at the time of the Machado trade, which he absolutely is (in fact he likely has a higher ceiling). And Diaz was literally the main piece in acquiring Machado. Here is what Longenhagan wrote about the trade when it was made:

 

"As far as Future Values go, Diaz is a 45+ for us right now and was only left off our recent top 131 due to his lack of power output in games, which is a concern for a likely left fielder. He projects as an average regular. Kremer, Pop, and Valera are all 40 FV players, with Kremer having the best chance to outpace that mark if he develops a way to deal with lefties. Pop and Valera are high-probability big leaguers almost certainly ticketed for lesser roles. Bannon is a 35+ FV as a likely org guy with a chance to transform a few niche attributes into something more than that."

 

Tiedemann is a 55 FV on Fangraphs right now. So actually, Fangraphs considers him much better than Diaz lol.

 

Looking at career fwar after the fact is useless when addressing a trade at the time, without hindsight or experiential bias.

 

Again, at the time of the trade:

 

"As far as Future Values go, Diaz is a 45+ for us right now and was only left off our recent top 131 due to his lack of power output in games, which is a concern for a likely left fielder. He projects as an average regular. Kremer, Pop, and Valera are all 40 FV players, with Kremer having the best chance to outpace that mark if he develops a way to deal with lefties. Pop and Valera are high-probability big leaguers almost certainly ticketed for lesser roles. Bannon is a 35+ FV as a likely org guy with a chance to transform a few niche attributes into something more than that."

 

The career fWAR agrees to what was predicted at the time. The Orioles didn't get s***.

 

Lastly, my point was to give "perspective" based on previous star, in this case Machado, being traded. My point stands, Ohtani's value will dwarf that of Machado (IF he gets moved).

 

Your point does not stand unless you believe that Ohtani is literally 3+ times better/worth more than Machado was in 2018 when he was traded. Machado was a 7 fWAR player in 2018; literally one of the best players in the entire league. Your actual statement was that Guerrero and Tiedemann isn't even close to enough for Ohtani, which is hilariously asinine. I just showed you that the package that LA sent for Machado was extremely light, and yet you think that Guerrero (a proven MLB player who is worth considerably more than pie in the sky "prospects") and Tiedemann (who is probably better than any prospect that was sent for Machado) isn't even close? My guy, Ohtani is not THAT much better than Machado was. He is a rental, just like Machado was. Teams aren't stupid anymore.

[John_Havok]

Teams aren't stupid anymore.

 

Arte Moreno has entered the chat.

[Omar]

My guy, Ohtani is not THAT much better than Machado was.

 

That is my cue to disengage from this.

[Daniel Labude]

I think we have a reading comprehension problem on this board (especially after last nights gdt).

 

I don't know why you put "a lot" in quotation marks addressed to me. I didn't use those words.

 

Tiedemann is yet another case of loving home cooking and Blue Jay fans of propping up our own prospects. Yeah, he may be a no.2 starter if/when he makes the show. The last time I read BA prospectus he had dropped to mid fifties in their top 100 ranking. Tiedemann is no phenom, so don't try to sell me.

 

Looking at career fwar after the fact is useless when addressing a trade at the time, without hindsight or experiential bias.

 

Lastly, my point was to give "perspective" based on previous star, in this case Machado, being traded. My point stands, Ohtani's value will dwarf that of Machado (IF he gets moved). No team will throw money on rental (well maybe Padres or Mets) without debating the reality of signing Ohtani beyond this season. That would be the height of stupidity.

 

BA prospectus lol