2023 Trade Deadline

[John_Havok]

It'd be great to see, but 0% chance they trade Holliday for Ohtani.

 

They wouldnt get him without Holliday in the package. Well, at least they shouldn't give Ohtani up without Holliday being in the deal. Moreno is an idiot at the end of the day.

 

Either way, my point is the Orioles system is so strong they don't really need to go all in on a rental when they have no chance to resign him. They're set up perfectly right now that any deal they do should be for guys with multiple years of control, not rentals. IF there was even the most remote possibility they could resign him, then yes, they could and should go for it.

 

Toronto is kind of in a different place, it would acually make more sense for Toronto to go after Ohtani given the current money, team contracts and standings. 1st place in the East would not be out of reach with Ohtani in the fold and this being the first of the next few all-in seasons with Bo and Vlad and the rest of the guys who are signed through 2025... sure. It would be a marketing dream for Rogers too for the last few months of the season also. Gotta keep those cell phone plans selling. But yeah, does Toronto have the chips to do the deal? Probably not. I wouldn't dismiss it entirely though. Moreno is an idiot at the end of the day.

[Olerud363]

 

This tweet is terrible if true. Isn't revenue really good? Isn't this exactly the team that should be throwing money at problems? High revenue team that is on the bubble.

 

Like this is the one type of team that (if the option presented itself) should throw short term money at problems.

 

a) Arguably Atkins should not be allowed to trade any top 15 prospects. So if ownership is smart enough to have lost faith in Atkins and don't want him making any long term moves that is fine.

 

However Atkins should be allowed to make moves involving mediocre prospects that mostly involve losing little long term player value and mostly just take on money.

[The Cats Ass]

They wouldnt get him without Holliday in the package.

 

Either way, mny point is the Orioles system is so strong they dont really need to go all in on a rental when they have no chance to resign him. IF there was even the most remote possibility they could resign him, then yes, they could and should go for it.

 

Toronto is kind of in a different place, it would acually make more sense for Toronto to go after Ohtani given the current money, team contracts and standings. 1st place in the East would not be out of reach with Ohtani in the fold and this being the first of the next few all-in seasons with Bo and Vlad and the rest of the guys who are signed through 2025... sure. It would be a marketing dream for Rogers too for the last few months of the season also. Gotta keep those cell phone plans selling. But yeah, does Toronto have the chips to do the deal? Probably not. I wouldn't dismiss it entirely though. Moreno is an idiot at the end of the day.

 

The #1 prospect in baseball doesn't get traded for a 3 month rental

[John_Havok]

The #1 prospect in baseball doesn't get traded for a 3 month rental

 

The #1 talent in MLB history doesnt get traded without the #1 prospect in baseball being included, IF the team trading for him has that #1 prospect.

 

 

Either way, LA isn't going to get true value for him, because that's impossible.

[metafour]

They wouldnt get him without Holliday in the package. Well, at least they shouldn't give Ohtani up without Holliday being in the deal.

 

Nobody is trading the #1 prospect in baseball for a 3-month rental. I don't give a s*** how good Ohtani is. Holliday is absurdly good.

[Laika]

The #1 talent in MLB history doesnt get traded without the #1 prospect in baseball being included, IF the team trading for him has that #1 prospect.

 

 

Either way, LA isn't going to get true value for him, because that's impossible.

 

baseball trade values says Joey Ortiz + Connor Norby + Heston Kjerstad = fair value

 

best player in MLB history or not, he's still a rental and it's relatively easy to pencil in a projected $$ value for him

[Brownie19]

Id love it if we could get Joe Kelly. Throwing harder than ever, K% a career high, BB% career low. Everything points at a elite RP profile. Just get him off that awful White Sox team and their defence and I bet he would be our best RP.

 

I'd be good with that move. He has a club option for 2024 also for $9.5M

[Olerud363]

They wouldnt get him without Holliday in the package. Well, at least they shouldn't give Ohtani up without Holliday being in the deal. Moreno is an idiot at the end of the day.

 

Either way, my point is the Orioles system is so strong they don't really need to go all in on a rental when they have no chance to resign him. They're set up perfectly right now that any deal they do should be for guys with multiple years of control, not rentals. IF there was even the most remote possibility they could resign him, then yes, they could and should go for it.

 

Toronto is kind of in a different place, it would acually make more sense for Toronto to go after Ohtani given the current money, team contracts and standings. 1st place in the East would not be out of reach with Ohtani in the fold and this being the first of the next few all-in seasons with Bo and Vlad and the rest of the guys who are signed through 2025... sure. It would be a marketing dream for Rogers too for the last few months of the season also. Gotta keep those cell phone plans selling. But yeah, does Toronto have the chips to do the deal? Probably not. I wouldn't dismiss it entirely though. Moreno is an idiot at the end of the day.

 

 

Don't the latest lists have the Orioles top 9 prospects ahead of the Jays top prospect?

 

Moreno - we want your 1st, 5th and 10th overall prospect - Orioles - lol. No. We can give you our 5th, 8th and 9th which are all still top 100 by Baseball America.

 

Moreno - No. We want your top prospect.

 

(on to Jays)

 

Moreno - We want your 1, 5 and 10 prospects. Jays - ummm... OK but our top guy is a left handed pitcher and you won't be allowed to do a physical and to be honest he's only 120 on the Baseball America list.

 

Moreno - he's your top prospect deal is done, we only are trading Ohtani for a team's top prospect.

[Jonn]

There’s probably less than a zero percent chance he re-signs in Baltimore. But for 2 and half months it would be a hell of a ride. Baltimore could trade for him without mortgaging much of the future. With that being said I hope they pussy out because that would suck for everyone else.

[Brownie19]

Ricky is the 31st overall prospect in baseball as per MLB.com.

[metafour]

The #1 talent in MLB history doesnt get traded without the #1 prospect in baseball being included, IF the team trading for him has that #1 prospect.

 

"The #1 talent in MLB history" is just a sentence that has no bearing on trade calculation. Ohtani is a baseball player that is worth an expected amount of wins over 3 months of gametime.

 

Just how much value do you think he brings over 3 months? Hint: it's far less than what Jackson Holliday is worth. You're acting like Ohtani is worth 10+ wins over 3 months; when in reality the Angels aren't even a playoff team with him.

[Brownie19]

What would Jays fans be comfortable giving up for Ohtani?

[John_Havok]

baseball trade values says Joey Ortiz + Connor Norby + Heston Kjerstad = fair value

 

best player in MLB history or not, he's still a rental and it's relatively easy to pencil in a projected $$ value for him

 

Yeah, and if that's all the Angels could get for Ohtani, they did it wrong. The sim value can only be so accurate with guys like Ohtani and prospects.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Guerrero + Tiedemann for Ohtani would be roughly fair value IMO, but the Jays would have to feel pretty confident that they could get Ohtani extended, because if he walked in a few moths that one would sting.

[John_Havok]

"The #1 talent in MLB history" is just a sentence that has no bearing on trade calculation. Ohtani is a baseball player that is worth an expected amount of wins over 3 months of gametime.

 

Just how much value do you think he brings over 3 months? Hint: it's far less than what Jackson Holliday is worth. You're acting like Ohtani is worth 10+ wins over 3 months; when in reality the Angels aren't even a playoff team with him.

 

I know exactly what everything means. I know that the hypothetical win value of Holliday over the next 7 seasons is worth more hypothetical wins than 3 months of Ohtani. Looking at win values is only one way to evaluate trades, an important one for sure, but not the be all end all. Im not acting like Ohtani is worth any more actual wins than he is, but the # of wins vs what wins he ends up being responsible for are two entirely different things.

 

No Jays fan gives two flying shits they traded Jeff Kent for David Cone, because a World Series banner flew at the end of the playoffs. From a win value perspective, that trade was horrendous. You're not trading for Ohtani to give you 10 wins in the last 2 months of the season, youre trading for him to get you post season wins.

[Brownie19]

Guerrero + Tiedemann for Ohtani would be roughly fair value IMO, but the Jays would have to feel pretty confident that they could get Ohtani extended, because if he walked in a few moths that one would sting.

 

I don't think you're giving up Vlad to get Ohtani. I think it's more like Ricky, Barger and Bonilla - but maybe it needs to be Ricky, Orelvis and Barriera? I don't know, but I doubt you're pulling from the ML roster.

[L54]

There’s no way in hell the O’s are offering Holliday that’s crazy talk

[John_Havok]

There’s no way in hell the O’s are offering Holliday that’s crazy talk

 

And if the Jays had Ohtani, and were in the Angels position right now and we knew we were trading him, what would you want back? You'd damn sure be demanding Holliday as the main piece.

[Krylian]

O's have the pieces to land him!

 

They could trade a huge package like Joey Ortiz, Connor Norby, and Heston Kjerstad. It would not hurt them long term much at all. They would not have to trade any of their top ~5 or so prospects.

 

I'd be shocked if they did it though, for a rental player even if it is Ohtani.

 

I would love to see the Orioles land him and have him walk at the end of the season. Their farm system would likely take a meaningful hit, and they'd hurt themselves from a long term perspective...which is what I want to see as a Jays fan.

[L54]

And if the Jays had Ohtani, and were in the Angels position right now and we knew we were trading him, what would you want back? You'd damn sure be demanding Holliday as the main piece.

 

No I wouldn’t

 

They have no leverage. They’re on the outside looking in of the playoff hunt, aren’t going to re sign him and are looking like a bottom 5 team for the next 5 years if they don’t trade him

 

Like if the only prospect worthy of Ohtani is Holliday then he won’t be moved. I guess we’ll see

[metafour]

I know exactly what everything means. I know that the hypothetical win value of Holliday over the next 7 seasons is worth more hypothetical wins than 3 months of Ohtani. Looking at win values is only one way to evaluate trades, an important one for sure, but not the be all end all. Im not acting like Ohtani is worth any more actual wins than he is, but the # of wins vs what wins he ends up being responsible for are two entirely different things.

 

No Jays fan gives two flying shits they traded Jeff Kent for David Cone, because a World Series banner flew at the end of the playoffs. From a win value perspective, that trade was horrendous. You're not trading for Ohtani to give you 10 wins in the last 2 months of the season, youre trading for him to get you post season wins.

 

Ohtani has never even been in the playoffs, so what do you qualify his playoff worth as? The playoffs are extremely small sample, which means that he can EASILY underwhelm over a 4-5 game series and be worth little to nothing.

 

You don't even need to go back far in time for the perfect example of this. The Yankees were bounced 4-0 by the Astros in the ALCS just last season. Over those 4 games, Aaron Judge hit a whopping .063/.118/.063. He had 1 hit in 16 at bats. Aaron Judge was worth 11.5 fWAR last season and had a comical 207 wRC+ over the full season. As you probably remember it was an all-time great hitting season. It didn't help the Yankees one lick over 4 games against the Astros.

 

I don't see what a 1992 trade has any relevance in this discussion. It's 2023, all of these MLB teams are run by data-nerds (the Orioles especially) and they are all making moves based off of expected value coming in vs. out. There is no chance in hell that any smart front office is moving the absurd value of Jackson Holliday for 3 months of Ohtani, when all of these teams understand that the playoffs are a crap-shoot anyway, which means that Ohtani doesn't even guarantee you anything.

 

This isn't the 1990's anymore when teams had no idea how to properly compare asset value. Elite prospects rarely get traded these days, and when they do it is for players who have years of control.

[John_Havok]

No I wouldn’t

 

They have no leverage. They’re on the outside looking in of the playoff hunt, aren’t going to re sign him and are looking like a bottom 5 team for the next 5 years if they don’t trade him

 

Like if the only prospect worthy of Ohtani is Holliday then he won’t be moved. I guess we’ll see

 

If you were the GM and you didnt demand Holliday, you wouldnt have a job. Sure, you might not end up with Holliday, but you still start the conversation with that ask.

 

And of course the team with Holliday doesnt offer him up... jesus, is everyone around here new and not understand how negotiation works?

[Olerud363]

The #1 talent in MLB history doesnt get traded without the #1 prospect in baseball being included, IF the team trading for him has that #1 prospect.

 

So you are saying the Jays have a good chance of getting him since they can give up their #1 prospect no problem?

[L54]

If you were the GM and you didnt demand Holliday, you wouldnt have a job. Sure, you might not end up with Holliday, but you still start the conversation with that ask.

 

And of course the team with Holliday doesnt offer him up... jesus, is everyone around here new and not understand how negotiation works?

 

There’s a pretty sizeable difference between asking for him and saying a deal doesn’t get done without him

[Olerud363]

If you were the GM and you didnt demand Holliday, you wouldnt have a job. Sure, you might not end up with Holliday, but you still start the conversation with that ask.

 

And of course the team with Holliday doesnt offer him up... jesus, is everyone around here new and not understand how negotiation works?

 

 

It has never worked like that. I remember when Jays had Delgado, Green, Gonzelas, they acquired Ricky Henderson in his prime having his second best season (though he would slump for Toronto), and David Cone coming off the Cy young without touching their top 3.

 

No one is giving up the best prospect in a generation for 2 months of Ohtani.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

I don't think you're giving up Vlad to get Ohtani. I think it's more like Ricky, Barger and Bonilla - but maybe it needs to be Ricky, Orelvis and Barriera? I don't know, but I doubt you're pulling from the ML roster.

 

I would give up Vlad 1000 times out of 100 to land Ohtani. Ohtani is quite literally 10x the player Vlad is.

[John_Havok]

There’s a pretty sizeable difference between asking for him and saying a deal doesn’t get done without him

 

I don't think a deal does get done without him, which is why he won't be going to the Orioles. I know it doesnt make sense, and im not great as explaining all the nuances rattling around in my brain.

 

but at the end of the day, the orioles arent getting ohtani for a whole host of reasons.

[John_Havok]

It has never worked like that. I remember when Jays had Delgado, Green, Gonzelas, they acquired Ricky Henderson in his prime having his second best season (though he would slump for Toronto), and David Cone coming off the Cy young without touching their top 3.

 

No one is giving up the best prospect in a generation for 2 months of Ohtani.

 

5 years ago Vlad was the best prospect in a generation.

[Olerud363]

I know exactly what everything means. I know that the hypothetical win value of Holliday over the next 7 seasons is worth more hypothetical wins than 3 months of Ohtani. Looking at win values is only one way to evaluate trades, an important one for sure, but not the be all end all. Im not acting like Ohtani is worth any more actual wins than he is, but the # of wins vs what wins he ends up being responsible for are two entirely different things.

 

No Jays fan gives two flying shits they traded Jeff Kent for David Cone, because a World Series banner flew at the end of the playoffs. From a win value perspective, that trade was horrendous. You're not trading for Ohtani to give you 10 wins in the last 2 months of the season, youre trading for him to get you post season wins.

 

When Kent was traded he wasn't a highly ranked prospect. Jays got Cone (twice) and Ricky Henderson from 92 to 95 without even talking about Delgado.

 

And even Dominique Brown was off limits in the Halladay discussion.

 

Holliday has a good chance of contributing playoff wins for the next 10 years, Orioles are playing for a long run, and have absolutely no pressure on them to win this year.

[John_Havok]

When Kent was traded he wasn't a highly ranked prospect. Jays got Cone (twice) and Ricky Henderson from 92 to 95 without even talking about Delgado.

 

And even Dominique Brown was off limits in the Halladay discussion.

 

Holliday has a good chance of contributing playoff wins for the next 10 years, Orioles are playing for a long run, and have absolutely no pressure on them to win this year.

 

I know, that's why they wont land Ohtani. It would be the height of stupidity for the Orioles to trade for Ohtani they way they are set up