AL Beasts of the East - Division Race '23

[Terminator]

That seems to happen to Gausman a few times every year. He's basically a two pitch starter so when the team finds some way to lay off the splitter he can get rocked.

[Stangstag]

That seems to happen to Gausman a few times every year. He's basically a two pitch starter so when the team finds some way to lay off the splitter he can get rocked.

 

That’s true but its hard for me to believe that its THAT simple. Because when he’s “on” he’s borderline unhittable. Im still not convinced he’s tipping something when he has these disaster outings

[John_Havok]

That’s true but its hard for me to believe that its THAT simple. Because when he’s “on” he’s borderline unhittable. Im still not convinced he’s tipping something when he has these disaster outings

 

I think it's more about his command when he gets kicked around. The entire wold knows his splitter is nearly unhittable when they can't identify it, but it's easier to identify if he cannot command the fastball down in the zone. If, when he throws the fastball and it's always upper half or a little wild, the hitters can basically let go anything they perceive to be lower half simply because they can reasonably guess it's the splitter and shouldn't swing as they know it will fall out of the zone far more often than not.

 

Here's yesterday's pitch 3d - red are the fastballs, the light greeny blue are the splitters, yellow are sliders.

 

 

Here's the same plot from June 6th against Houston, same colour on the pitches

 

 

Sure, there are still some fastballs up as you cant just exclusively not use the top half of the zone, especially when you can throw 98 with a heater, but there's a noticeable difference in alot of his fastball locations vs Houston than vs Minnesota.

[Olerud363]

That’s true but its hard for me to believe that its THAT simple. Because when he’s “on” he’s borderline unhittable. Im still not convinced he’s tipping something when he has these disaster outings

 

Buck Martinez was pretty convinced he was tipping. I wonder if within a few years we will have the Jose Canseco of sign stealing write a tell-all like Juiced.

 

Maybe I am getting fooled by randomness, but the last 10 years don't quite make sense.

 

1. The 2014/15 Kansas City Royals getting clusters of hits at just the right time (WC 2014, Game 4 ALDS 2015, Game 2 ALCS 2015, and World Series).

2. The 2023 Rays.

3. The 2021 Giants.

4. 2019 Twins and Yankees (300 homers with Stanton and Judge only hitting 30 combined).

 

Remember Brett Gardner getting kicked out of a game in 2019 at Rogers Center banging a bat against the dug-out ceiling.

 

Baseball is really random, so who knows, seems as if electronic sign stealing was a thing for a few years, they tried to stop it with pitch com, but now teams are going nuts with legal pitch prediction via real time analytics.

[Stangstag]

Buck Martinez was pretty convinced he was tipping. I wonder if within a few years we will have the Jose Canseco of sign stealing write a tell-all like Juiced.

 

Maybe I am getting fooled by randomness, but the last 10 years don't quite make sense.

 

1. The 2014/15 Kansas City Royals getting clusters of hits at just the right time (WC 2014, Game 4 ALDS 2015, Game 2 ALCS 2015, and World Series).

2. The 2023 Rays.

3. The 2021 Giants.

4. 2019 Twins and Yankees (300 homers with Stanton and Judge only hitting 30 combined).

 

Remember Brett Gardner getting kicked out of a game in 2019 at Rogers Center banging a bat against the dug-out ceiling.

 

Baseball is really random, so who knows, seems as if electronic sign stealing was a thing for a few years, they tried to stop it with pitch com, but now teams are going nuts with legal pitch prediction via real time analytics.

 

You know why the Houston Astros barely got punished for proven cheating??

 

Because there's actually a lot of cheating going around that players/owners know about, and MLB was trying to keep it from turning into a huge scandal.

[Spanky99]

Yeah those maps just show that Gausman had an off day with command, makes sense. Cheers, JH!

[Olerud363]

You know why the Houston Astros barely got punished for proven cheating??

 

Because there's actually a lot of cheating going around that players/owners know about, and MLB was trying to keep it from turning into a huge scandal.

 

 

Would be interesting to hear a tell-all someday... No doubt in my mind KC was cheating at critical times. Not sure Jays were innocent. I remember the man in white stories, where supposedly some guy was giving Bautista signs from the outfield stands. Sounded like a ridiculous joke to me at the time, but looking back where there is smoke there is fire.

[Terminator]

Was looking at Fangraphs tonight and saw that the best franchise in baseball (the Baltimore Orioles) have the hardest remaining schedule. I'm sure they will call up a dozen or so of the top prospects in baseball and it won't matter as they cakewalk their way to the World Series. But I did find it interesting.

[Terminator]

And yes posting this the night before we face them with Kikuchi on the hill is setting myself up to get dunked on by the O's fanboys of the board but I like to live dangerously.

[Olerud363]

Was looking at Fangraphs tonight and saw that the best franchise in baseball (the Baltimore Orioles) have the hardest remaining schedule. I'm sure they will call up a dozen or so of the top prospects in baseball and it won't matter as they cakewalk their way to the World Series. But I did find it interesting.

 

We'll see what happens. They've been playing Henderson at short a few games in a row now. They have 3 guys Cowser, Westberg and Kjerstad raking at aaa, however with Mountcastle down have decided to look at a couple of journeyman instead of calling one of them up.

 

If they are really the greatest organization in baseball history I see them having another seemingly 'sell' trade deadline that will shock people. Two or three of Mountcastle, Urias, Hays, Satlander and perhaps a hot reliever will be traded for some mlb ready arms. Cowser, Westberg and Kierstad will be called up. Then they will trade 3 of their second level prospects (8th or below) for the an arm with control.

 

Rodriquez and Hall will be back in a few weeks with some fixers implemented for whatever ailed them... perhaps as relievers.

 

We will see. All the above is assuming they are the best organization in baseball history, led by Yale/Astros alumni and certified genius Mike Elias... or maybe Elias is a phony... we will see. Can't predict the future.

[BigCecil]

Is every Ray having a career year FFS? Yandy etc.

 

Franco is leading MLB shortstops in WAR with 3.4 and its not that close.

[jaysblue]

Is every Ray having a career year FFS? Yandy etc.

 

Franco is leading MLB shortstops in WAR with 3.4 and its not that close.

 

Yeah all the Rays bats have like double-digit HR's, or have a .500 SLG haha. They're all having career years which is crazy.

[Olerud363]

Yeah all the Rays bats have like double-digit HR's, or have a .500 SLG haha. They're all having career years which is crazy.

 

Red Sox 'worse franchise ever' now right back in it half a game behind the Jays.

 

Casas, the worst failed prospect ever is heating up and is neck in neck with Vlad for the fourth tier first basemen WAR race (Casas will likely go positive after a nice night tonight and when we check fangraphs tomorrow Vlad will have a slim 0.5 to 0.2 WAR lead over Casas).

 

Red Sox pitching looking fine to with seemingly rehabilitated Paxton making up for Chris Sale.

 

Red Sox current cycle (even though they are the worst franchise ever, lead the Bo/Vlad Jays Cycle in Playoff victories 6-0, and it would not surprise me if they make a surprise playoff appearance, win a series or two and extend that lead to 10-0.

[jaysblue]

Red Sox 'worse franchise ever' now right back in it half a game behind the Jays.

 

Casas, the worst failed prospect ever is heating up and is neck in neck with Vlad for the fourth tier first basemen WAR race (Casas will likely go positive after a nice night tonight and when we check fangraphs tomorrow Vlad will have a slim 0.5 to 0.2 WAR lead over Casas).

 

Red Sox pitching looking fine to with seemingly rehabilitated Paxton making up for Chris Sale.

 

Red Sox current cycle (even though they are the worst franchise ever, lead the Bo/Vlad Jays Cycle in Playoff victories 6-0, and it would not surprise me if they make a surprise playoff appearance, win a series or two and extend that lead to 10-0.

 

Is Grant still alive?

[Olerud363]

Is Grant still alive?

 

Seattle is only 2 games back of the Jays, so I think he is probably a bit devastated that our beloved Blue Jays are in a class with the Red Sox and Mariners.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Boston with 6 wins in a row and as the last place team in the AL east would be a full 3 games up on the "1st place" AL Central Minnesota Twins

 

No AL Central team should be allowed into the playoffs this year. What a travesty.

[Terminator]

Doesn't seem like it but the Jays' record is 12-8 in June. I think the division is probably gone but I do think the team can still make a run at WC1. We need to close out the first half strong and we are finally at that point in the schedule where things soften up a little.

 

A's

Giants

Red Sox

@ White Sox

@ Tigers

 

9-6 is probably the bare minimum for what I would consider acceptable but hopefully we can get hot and win 11 or 12 during this stretch.

[Stangstag]

Boston with 6 wins in a row and as the last place team in the AL east would be a full 3 games up on the "1st place" AL Central Minnesota Twins

 

No AL Central team should be allowed into the playoffs this year. What a travesty.

 

The AL Central is an absolute joke

[John_Havok]

The AL Central is an absolute joke

 

NL central isnt far behind. It looks better right now with the Reds having a recent 10 game winning streak, but let's be real, it's still easily the 2nd worst division in baseball.

[G-Snarls]

Joe Ryan shutting out the Red Sox

 

Edit: Holy s***

 

3 hit CG shutout. Twins win 6-0.

Edited June 22, 2023 by G-Snarls

[jaysblue]

Joe Ryan shutting out the Red Sox

 

Edit: Holy s***

 

3 hit CG shutout. Twins win 6-0.

 

Joe Ryan will win the AL Cy Young!

 

As well, bet Twins run line today! Woo hoo!

[John_Havok]

AL WC teams are Baltimore, Yankees and Toronto.

 

AL East is the hardest division in pro sports right now

[jaysblue]

AL WC teams are Baltimore, Yankees and Toronto.

 

AL East is the hardest division in pro sports right now

 

The Detroit Tigers at 33-43 are only 5.5 GB of the Twins for the division. It's crazy to think the Tigers might be buyers at the deadline.

[John_Havok]

The Detroit Tigers at 33-43 are only 5.5 GB of the Twins for the division. It's crazy to think the Tigers might be buyers at the deadline.

 

This deadline is going to be weird. Some teams that should definitely sell, won't... and some that should definitely buy... won't. It seems like a gridlock deadline to me

[jaysblue]

This deadline is going to be weird. Some teams that should definitely sell, won't... and some that should definitely buy... won't. It seems like a gridlock deadline to me

 

Yeah it will be interesting if teams like Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago make some upgrades at the deadline if they're within striking distance of the Twins. Or they might just keep the status quo and not sell which will limit the buyers market for sure.

 

Out of all teams in the AL, Oakland and Kansas City seem like the only sellers. Maybe Chicago if they fall further back.

 

In the NL, the Mets, Nats, Cardinals, and Rockies. Maybe the Pirates as well. Padres are 6.5 GB for WC3, but Preller likely is irresponsible and decides to buy.

 

A lot could change still from now till the end of July.

[max silver]

This deadline is going to be weird. Some teams that should definitely sell, won't... and some that should definitely buy... won't. It seems like a gridlock deadline to me

 

Having the potential of adding an impact arm like Chad Green available around the time of the deadline is a massive coup for the front office. Trade prices are likely to be insane this year due to the amount of teams battling for a playoff spot around the league.

[John_Havok]

Yeah it will be interesting if teams like Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago make some upgrades at the deadline if they're within striking distance of the Twins. Or they might just keep the status quo and not sell which will limit the buyers market for sure.

 

Out of all teams in the AL, Oakland and Kansas City seem like the only sellers. Maybe Chicago if they fall further back.

 

In the NL, the Mets, Nats, Cardinals, and Rockies. Maybe the Pirates as well. Padres are 6.5 GB for WC3, but Preller likely is irresponsible and decides to buy.

 

A lot could change still from now till the end of July.

 

True. I was thinking along the lines of whether Milwaukee will want to pony up for both Woodruff and Burnes for another season with both headed for FA after 2024. One or both might be on the way out for max return. This assumes Woodruff returns to the lineup and puitches well in teh few starts he might get prior to the deadline.

 

Or Milwaukee could see the Central as winnable (which it is...), opt to tweak a bit and revisit the trade possibility in the offseason.

[Spanky99]

July 24th to the 31st is going to be nuts.

[Spanky99]

True. I was thinking along the lines of whether Milwaukee will want to pony up for both Woodruff and Burnes for another season with both headed for FA after 2024. One or both might be on the way out for max return. This assumes Woodruff returns to the lineup and puitches well in teh few starts he might get prior to the deadline.

 

Or Milwaukee could see the Central as winnable (which it is...), opt to tweak a bit and revisit the trade possibility in the offseason.

 

They're half a game out, no way the Brewers sell.

[John_Havok]

They're half a game out, no way the Brewers sell.

 

I dont think they should either, but given their money constraints, it's only a matter of time.