2023 MLB Draft

[Spanky99]

What BA wrote about the kid would be overridden by what actually happens. Did you consider that? If the kid was actually "going to college", why would the Jays draft him? His draft slot is worth $547K, I'm sure you know that this amount is lost from their pool if he doesn't sign. So you think they willfully drafted a player that they knew wouldn't sign, which would harm the rest of their draft class as well? Again, you also have the actual track record of the fact that this FO doesn't "guess" on player signability, so there really isn't any basis to conclude that for the first time ever they chose to draft a player that they couldn't sign. Try connecting the dots a little bit.

 

Kevin McConigle, the Tigers' #37 pick was also written about pre-draft as being unsignable. The fact that he went #37 overall means that he's signing. The pre-draft stuff is therefore no longer relevant.

 

Fair enough, but it happens.

[John_Havok]

Almost all the high school guys are committed to one university or another. Yet, the majority of them sign if they're drafted.

 

It's truly best to just ignore any rumours pre-draft about high school kids. THe narratives are obvious, their family will always say they are "100%" committed to University X to ensure the MLB teams they talk to are the ones that really have a shot to give them the money they want, or to ensure the team they want to play for is the one that takes them.

[Spanky99]

Almost all the high school guys are committed to one university or another. Yet, the majority of them sign if they're drafted.

 

It's truly best to just ignore any rumours pre-draft about high school kids. THe narratives are obvious, their family will always say they are "100%" committed to University X to ensure the MLB teams they talk to are the ones that really have a shot to give them the money they want, or to ensure the team they want to play for is the one that takes them.

 

Yes, the majority of them do, but guys have slid through the cracks many times before, there's no denying it.

[metafour]

Fair enough, but it happens.

 

Right, but it's usually for disagreements on health that come up during post-draft physicals. It is very rare these days for any team to outright misguage a player's intentions, or to just outright fail to understand their price-tag. These kids are all called one final time before the pick is even made to confirm whether or not they will sign for 'X'. If they won't agree, they'll simply draft someone else. Again, this FO's hit rate is literally 100% over what is now 7 drafts. You don't hit 100% on the basis of "negotiating" with drafted players; you get to 100% by extreme due-diligence all the way up to when the pick is made. So when you see a HS player drafted in the 5th round, it didn't happen because the team is "hopeful" that they'll be able to negotiate a signing. That player was drafted because they agreed to sign for a pre-agreed upon amount.

[RobinThicc]

 

Jays sign Nimmala. Havent seen anything about how much yet.

[metafour]

Holy s***, for $3 million! Keith Law was stating that he thinks he fell because he was pricing himself too high.

 

 

[RobinThicc]

 

Looks like he came in below slot

[Spanky99]

Right, but it's usually for disagreements on health that come up during post-draft physicals. It is very rare these days for any team to outright misguage a player's intentions, or to just outright fail to understand their price-tag. These kids are all called one final time before the pick is even made to confirm whether or not they will sign for 'X'. If they won't agree, they'll simply draft someone else. Again, this FO's hit rate is literally 100% over what is now 7 drafts. You don't hit 100% on the basis of "negotiating" with drafted players; you get to 100% by extreme due-diligence all the way up to when the pick is made. So when you see a HS player drafted in the 5th round, it didn't happen because the team is "hopeful" that they'll be able to negotiate a signing. That player was drafted because they agreed to sign for a pre-agreed upon amount.

 

If this were the case why do we even have a thread for this, they'd just announce the signings the next day, hahaha? Colour me skeptical on this, mate. I understand what you're saying and agree for the general idea, but there must be negotiating into it, Ross has done a great job at getting these guys signed.

[John_Havok]

700 K below slot is awesome. Makes some of those later round picks even better

[mphenhef]

Holy s***, for $3 million! Keith Law was stating that he thinks he fell because he was pricing himself too high.

 

 

 

I thought he dropped because his K-rate went way up.

[metafour]

If this were the case why do we even have a thread for this, they'd just announce the signings the next day, hahaha? Colour me skeptical on this, mate.

 

Why would you be skeptical when the overall signing rate is so absurdly high across the league that the only explanation is that teams are coming to pre-selection agreements? This is all happening while some guys are getting massively over slot, and others are getting massively under slot. The only way those puzzle pieces fit together to conclude with the drafting team coming under the penalized total limit of how much they can spend is if the team is VERY sure of which players will sign for what amount. There is no other explanation, mate.

 

You will see 4th rounder Landen Maroudis announced for OVER his slot of $547K. The only way that signing can even happen is if they KNEW that Nimmala would come in at underslot, which is what was just announced. They didn't just blindly select these players and then get lucky that Nimmala took way underslot, which just so happened to give them the money to sign a HS pitcher in the 4th round. C'mon dawg.

 

People were commenting during the draft that there wasn't many obvious under-slot or Senior picks made by the Jays, yet they were drafting a lot of highly ranked guys. Well, now that Nimmala signed for $700K under his slot, you know why they could actually do that. All of the picks made after Nimmala came after they knew how much money they saved on Nimmala's pick. That's the only way the math works. If Nimmala actually wanted $4 million, then they don't have the money to be as aggressive as they were. So do you honestly think they just got absurdly "lucky", or do you think they knew exactly how much it would take to sign Nimmala before they even chose to pick him?

[glory]

Yeah I don’t think I’ve ever worried about the Jays under this regime signing an early round draft pick. Now if AA was still GM, then that’s a different story.

 

Arjun at under slot is a bit surprising. But he still got his money and the Jays have more $ to work with so good on all accounts.

[Spanky99]

Why would you be skeptical when the overall signing rate is so absurdly high across the league that the only explanation is that teams are coming to pre-selection agreements? This is all happening while some guys are getting massively over slot, and others are getting massively under slot. The only way those puzzle pieces fit together to conclude with the drafting team coming under the penalized total limit of how much they can spend is if the team is VERY sure of which players will sign for what amount. There is no other explanation, mate.

 

You will see 4th rounder Landen Maroudis announced for OVER his slot of $547K. The only way that signing can even happen is if they KNEW that Nimmala would come in at underslot, which is what was just announced. They didn't just blindly select these players and then get lucky that Nimmala took way underslot, which just so happened to give them the money to sign a HS pitcher in the 4th round. C'mon dawg.

 

People were commenting during the draft that there wasn't many obvious under-slot or Senior picks made by the Jays, yet they were drafting a lot of highly ranked guys. Well, now that Nimmala signed for $700K under his slot, you know why they could actually do that. All of the picks made after Nimmala came after they knew how much money they saved on Nimmala's pick. That's the only way the math works. If Nimmala actually wanted $4 million, then they don't have the money to be as aggressive as they were. So do you honestly think they just got absurdly "lucky", or do you think they knew exactly how much it would take to sign Nimmala before they even chose to pick him?

 

I think they had a general idea, yes. I've said I agree with the premise and understand how it works, but I just don't think it's that cut and dry is all, no big deal, lol. You don't need to be condescending in these posts, bro.

[wamco]

Jesus Christ, take the L dude.

Don’t make him have to explain it to you again.

[Spanky99]

Jesus Christ, take the L dude.

Don’t make him have to explain it to you again.

 

There's no L here, I didn't need the explaining from the get go, I know how it works, and no-one's talking to you, so f*** off.

[TheHurl]

Wonder if there is something tied to the underslot signing. Like an agreement to start at a certain level. Or he is allowed to pursue something else which would not usually be permitted.

[Stangstag]

Why would you be skeptical when the overall signing rate is so absurdly high across the league that the only explanation is that teams are coming to pre-selection agreements? This is all happening while some guys are getting massively over slot, and others are getting massively under slot. The only way those puzzle pieces fit together to conclude with the drafting team coming under the penalized total limit of how much they can spend is if the team is VERY sure of which players will sign for what amount. There is no other explanation, mate.

 

You will see 4th rounder Landen Maroudis announced for OVER his slot of $547K. The only way that signing can even happen is if they KNEW that Nimmala would come in at underslot, which is what was just announced. They didn't just blindly select these players and then get lucky that Nimmala took way underslot, which just so happened to give them the money to sign a HS pitcher in the 4th round. C'mon dawg.

 

People were commenting during the draft that there wasn't many obvious under-slot or Senior picks made by the Jays, yet they were drafting a lot of highly ranked guys. Well, now that Nimmala signed for $700K under his slot, you know why they could actually do that. All of the picks made after Nimmala came after they knew how much money they saved on Nimmala's pick. That's the only way the math works. If Nimmala actually wanted $4 million, then they don't have the money to be as aggressive as they were. So do you honestly think they just got absurdly "lucky", or do you think they knew exactly how much it would take to sign Nimmala before they even chose to pick him?

 

You’re right, these are all clearly handshake deals that were made before the draft or day of. Fits together too cleanly. But its a great job Atkins has done the last few years.

[L54]

Wonder if there is something tied to the underslot signing. Like an agreement to start at a certain level. Or he is allowed to pursue something else which would not usually be permitted.

 

What are you thinking of when referring to pursuing something else?

[Brownie19]

You’re right, these are all clearly handshake deals that were made before the draft or day of. Fits together too cleanly. But its a great job Atkins has done the last few years.

 

I wonder how many hand shake deals they need to make before the actual draft. Like if they had a handshake deal with Juaron Watts-Brown for say $75K below slot and were going to use that to sign Landen Maroudis over slot...what happens if Juaron Watts-Brown gets drafted before your pick? What if Landen Maroudis is drafted before your pick? Would they have had a couple other hand shake deals in place for HS kids to draft over slot if Landen Maroudis wasn't available? I find this kind of stuff fascinating.

[Jonn]

Looks like the Jays and Arjun had a sweetheart deal in advanced if he fell to the Jays. It’s quite unusual for a High School prospect with a strong College commitment to sign that much under slot. Especially where he was ranked by most publications.

 

Makes signing everyone else substantially easier. I still hate this slot system.

[InsideThePark]

I wonder how many hand shake deals they need to make before the actual draft. Like if they had a handshake deal with Juaron Watts-Brown for say $75K below slot and were going to use that to sign Landen Maroudis over slot...what happens if Juaron Watts-Brown gets drafted before your pick? What if Landen Maroudis is drafted before your pick? Would they have had a couple other hand shake deals in place for HS kids to draft over slot if Landen Maroudis wasn't available? I find this kind of stuff fascinating.

 

I've heard teams are discussing numbers with 10-15 prospects at each pick they have. "Will you sign for X if we draft you at pick Y?" if not they move on to the next guy. They likely have 4 or 5 guys willing to take a certain number so if one gets snatched before their pick they have other options for similar money. There are probably occasionally guys like Bo who have such a strong deal worked out they're actively turning down other teams and the Jays know they will drop to them. Unsure if Maroudis falls into that category, or if they would have had multiple other options. It's also possible if they have extra money available and the guy they wanted gets taken they can "kick that can down the road". Eric Bitonti a HS SS got taken 2 picks before our 3rd rounder. It's possible they wanted him overslot, and then pivoted to JWB at slot and then used the 4th rounder for Maroudis overslot instead. I always find it strange when they have this extra money but they take the cheaper player first. You would think you'd take the most coveted player first hoping someone else doesn't beat you to the punch. They went college in round 3(JWB) then the expensive guy in round 4(Maroudis), college in round 5(O'Halloran) and expensive in round 6(Bohefen). When they took Irv Carter overslot in 2021 round 5, they went round 4 underslot with Chad Dallas. Last year they took Kasevich in round 2 and waited until the comp pick to taken Toman overslot. It would suggest they know the expensive guy will drop to their next pick as if they already ave a deal in place and know the player is turning down other offers and don't want the college guy they like taken before they so they order the picks that way.

[Spanky99]

I wonder how many hand shake deals they need to make before the actual draft. Like if they had a handshake deal with Juaron Watts-Brown for say $75K below slot and were going to use that to sign Landen Maroudis over slot...what happens if Juaron Watts-Brown gets drafted before your pick? What if Landen Maroudis is drafted before your pick? Would they have had a couple other hand shake deals in place for HS kids to draft over slot if Landen Maroudis wasn't available? I find this kind of stuff fascinating.

 

That's why I mentioned it's not so black and white, but the premise has always been what's discussed, it is very interesting.

[TheHurl]

What are you thinking of when referring to pursuing something else?

Rest of 2023 off to bang his girl. I had no idea but seemed like a good deal.

[Spanky99]

ARTICLENEWS

Toronto Blue Jays 2023 MLB Draft Review

July 17, 2023

 

 

See Also: 2023 MLB Draft Database

 

Draft Theme: Blending Power & Polish.

 

Toronto’s draft was one of the toughest to boil down to one theme, so if you have a better one let me know. But it’s interesting that the Blue Jays took a pair of upside players with power at the top of the draft and then went with two players right after who have a bit more polish. First-rounder Arjun Nimmala has electric bat speed and huge power potential, but some swing decision questions, while third-rounder Juaron Watts-Brown has a high-carry fastball and snappy breaking ball—but he needs to find more control. Fourth-round righthander Landen Maroudis has a penchant for strike-throwing with a well-rounded three-pitch mix, while fifth-rounder Connor O’Halloran is a touch-and-feel lefty who can spot his fastball to both sides of the plate.

 

Most Interesting Day 2 Pick: RHP Juaron Watts-Brown, 3rd round

 

Watts-Brown was a standout, multi-sport athlete in high school who excelled at baseball, football and basketball. He began his college career at Long Beach State, but redshirted in 2021 to recover from an arm injury he sustained in football. When he returned to the mound in 2022, Watts-Brown was named a Freshman All-American and his draft stock exploded over the summer when he showed improved velocity and some of the best all-around pitching upside during the summer in the Cape Cod League. In his first and only season with Oklahoma State, the 6-foot-3, 190-pound righthander posted a 5.03 ERA over 15 starts and 82.1 innings and led the Big 12 with 124 strikeouts and a 33% strikeout rate. He’s a good mover on the mound with a clean, fast arm, a bit of length in the back of his arm path and a three-quarter slot. Watts-Brown averaged 92 mph and touched 95 with a fastball that had around 19 inches of induced vertical break. He used that pitch less than half the time however, thanks to a high-usage, mid-80s slider that flashes plus with hard, tight spin and looks like a real out pitch. He generated whiffs at a 53% rate with the slider, with 40% usage, and often shows better feel to land it for strikes than either his fastball, his low-80s 12-6 curveball or his mid-80s changeup. Watts-Brown has fringy control and needs to improve his fastball command to make the most of a solid four-pitch mix.

 

Most Interesting Day 3 Pick: 1B/OF, Sam Kulasingam, Air Force, 17th round

 

Over the past two seasons, Kulasingam quietly established himself as one of the best hitters in all of college baseball. After hitting .411 in 2022, Kulasingam managed to upstage that performance in 2023, hitting .426 with 28 doubles, four triples and six home runs. A 6-foot-2, 190-pound switch-hitter, Kulasingam has both an outstanding approach and bat-to-ball skills, which translated to a walk-to-strikeout ratio of 50-to-24 and .537 OBP. Kulasingam had an impressive in-zone contact rate of 93% and showed the ability to drive the baseball with authority to all fields. The trickiest part with Kulasingam is his military commitment, and if he were to sign with Toronto, he may not be able to play affiliated baseball until 2024.

[John_Havok]

I still hate this slot system.

 

100% this.

[Jonn]

 

Almost triple the slot value but the toughest sign has signed. The savings on Arjun was clutch.

[Spanky99]

 

Almost triple the slot value but the toughest sign has signed. The savings on Arjun was clutch.

 

This certainly was as expected, right? lol... I'm glad he was signed.

[Jonn]

This certainly was as expected, right? lol... I'm glad he was signed.

 

Once they took him you figured he would sign but doesn’t happen without savings. You get a second round talent in the fourth as a result. Feel the Jays did well in this draft despite not having a Second Rounder.

[Spanky99]

Once they took him you figured he would sign but doesn’t happen without savings. You get a second round talent in the fourth as a result. Feel the Jays did well in this draft despite not having a Second Rounder.

 

Very well.

[InsideThePark]

I expected it would be more in the 1.2 range but we already know the math will work out so it's whatever. Obviously happy he signed. Something like Bohefren 400k overslot, JWB slot, O'Halloran half slot, Barry 75% slot, Mollerus 5k works