Former Blue Jays Thread

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Someone doesn't like criticism.  Don't take it so serious 🤡

Bingo, I was laughing at the humour in it, but some fellas run soft. Not to mention you're right, that's the point of a contending team, to better their immediate future. We're not fully rebuilding anytime soon.

[John_Havok]

14 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

Bingo, I was laughing at the humour in it, but some fellas run soft. Not to mention you're right, that's the point of a contending team, to better their immediate future. We're not fully rebuilding anytime soon.

It is at least somewhat interesting to wonder how a guy who was high level in Cleveland, an org that had churned out solid pitching consistently for years while he was there (and still has in his absence).... hasn't been able to replicate that system in Toronto, even now with the cutting edge sports complex and lab. 

Possible reasons:

1. Not a primary focus since he has far more resources here to make FA signings. (this would be a silly reason, but ... it's kind of a theme in teams with large payrolls)

2. Hasn't been able to poach all the right staff from other orgs yet for the system or the lab. (more plausible)

3. Just not drafting the "right" pitchers, aka scouting not very good combined with chronically low draft position and reduced # of picks.  (definitely at least part of the story)

4. Perception of success only being developing an ace every other year (exaggeration for effect - also a factor)

Thoughts?

 

[jaysblue]

5 hours ago, John_Havok said:

It is at least somewhat interesting to wonder how a guy who was high level in Cleveland, an org that had churned out solid pitching consistently for years while he was there (and still has in his absence).... hasn't been able to replicate that system in Toronto, even now with the cutting edge sports complex and lab. 

Possible reasons:

1. Not a primary focus since he has far more resources here to make FA signings. (this would be a silly reason, but ... it's kind of a theme in teams with large payrolls)

2. Hasn't been able to poach all the right staff from other orgs yet for the system or the lab. (more plausible)

3. Just not drafting the "right" pitchers, aka scouting not very good combined with chronically low draft position and reduced # of picks.  (definitely at least part of the story)

4. Perception of success only being developing an ace every other year (exaggeration for effect - also a factor)

Thoughts?

 

I think #3 is probably the biggest factor, but at this point Atkins can't really be separated from #2 either.

Cleveland's pitching development obviously wasn't just Atkins carrying some secret formula with him. It was an entire organizational machine from scouting, drafting, analysts, minor-league coaches, pitching coordinators, etc. But he's also been in Toronto for more than a decade now. At some point, building that kind of infrastructure here was part of the expectation. If there’s one area where I think criticism of Atkins is absolutely warranted, it’s this.

The Jays have spent enormous amounts on Dunedin, the lab, technology and player development, yet they still haven't come close to Cleveland's ability to consistently turn relatively unheralded arms into useful MLB pitchers. And I don't think the standard is developing an ace every other year. If they were regularly producing solid #3/#4 starters and quality relievers internally, that would be a huge success. Instead, Toronto has repeatedly had to spend money or prospect capital acquiring those types of pitchers.

Draft position, lost picks and injuries all matter, but after this many years it's hard to chalk the lack of pitching development up entirely to circumstance. That's what makes it interesting: Atkins came from an organization known for doing more with less in pitching development, moved to one with far greater resources, and Toronto still hasn't developed that same kind of advantage.

[John_Havok]

21 hours ago, jaysblue said:

I think #3 is probably the biggest factor, but at this point Atkins can't really be separated from #2 either.

Cleveland's pitching development obviously wasn't just Atkins carrying some secret formula with him. It was an entire organizational machine from scouting, drafting, analysts, minor-league coaches, pitching coordinators, etc. But he's also been in Toronto for more than a decade now. At some point, building that kind of infrastructure here was part of the expectation. If there’s one area where I think criticism of Atkins is absolutely warranted, it’s this.

The Jays have spent enormous amounts on Dunedin, the lab, technology and player development, yet they still haven't come close to Cleveland's ability to consistently turn relatively unheralded arms into useful MLB pitchers. And I don't think the standard is developing an ace every other year. If they were regularly producing solid #3/#4 starters and quality relievers internally, that would be a huge success. Instead, Toronto has repeatedly had to spend money or prospect capital acquiring those types of pitchers.

Draft position, lost picks and injuries all matter, but after this many years it's hard to chalk the lack of pitching development up entirely to circumstance. That's what makes it interesting: Atkins came from an organization known for doing more with less in pitching development, moved to one with far greater resources, and Toronto still hasn't developed that same kind of advantage.

I agree mostly. I just wonder how many years from the opening of the pitching lab is a reasonable expectation to be able to poach the right talent from the right organizations doing it right. I also wonder how much the extra picks and draft money plays a role for the smaller market teams over the course of 10+ years. Yes, of course they still need to do development correctly, but it's certainly an advantage to have 2+ extra picks in the top 100 or so every year to go along with that extra draft budget. 

Like, why would the Jays not just go to the Cleveland or Milwaukee or Tampa orgs and say to the guys in those development positions, here's 50% more money to come do that for the Jays. I guess for all we know they've tried and failed as there's obviously a limit on what people are willing to do in their own lives as far as moving to entire new cities and places with their families for work but... it seems like 5 years is a decent length of time to see some fruit on the tree. 

So, looking at the Jays 40 man roster of pitchers... Trey, Dallas, Tiedemann, Van Eyk and Fluharty are really the only farm to table arms there.   Some credit could be given to polishing up Fisher and Little into useful pieces and Miles has clearly benefitted to some degree. Though with those guys it's more of a scouting win than a development win. Other interesting wait-and-sees are Stanifer, Perry, King, Guerra, Messina, Coleman. 

If even 3 of those guys in the wait and see pile pan out over the next 2 seasons into the 3/4 or pen roles... is that enough to declare improvement in the development?

[Brownie19]

On 9/15/2026 at 11:16 AM, John_Havok said:

It is at least somewhat interesting to wonder how a guy who was high level in Cleveland, an org that had churned out solid pitching consistently for years while he was there (and still has in his absence).... hasn't been able to replicate that system in Toronto, even now with the cutting edge sports complex and lab. 

Possible reasons:

1. Not a primary focus since he has far more resources here to make FA signings. (this would be a silly reason, but ... it's kind of a theme in teams with large payrolls)

2. Hasn't been able to poach all the right staff from other orgs yet for the system or the lab. (more plausible)

3. Just not drafting the "right" pitchers, aka scouting not very good combined with chronically low draft position and reduced # of picks.  (definitely at least part of the story)

4. Perception of success only being developing an ace every other year (exaggeration for effect - also a factor)

Thoughts?

 

When was the last time you felt the Jays were good - or even adequate at developing pitchers?  

AA drafted A LOT of pitchers.  Stro, Sanchez and Osuna had impact and Thor was traded, but clearly he had to trade for and/or sign Josh Johnson, Dickey, Price, Buehrle, Happ, Estrada, Hawkins, Morrow, Delabar, Santos, etc.  He certainly wasn't able to create a pitching development factory.  JP Ricciardi didn't do much of anything well.  Gord Ash?  

I think it's a fair criticism to suggest Atkins has fallen short on the draft/development side of things, but this has been an issue for the Jays for decades.  But I think a lot of teams struggle with it - or at least struggle to do it consistently.  Heck - even the Dodgers kinda suck at developing pitchers recently.  They have like 9 aces and none of them were drafted by the Dodgers (Yama, Sho, Glasnow, Skubal, Snell, Sasaki, etc.).   They've developed Wrobleski and Sheehan, who are both back of the rotation arms, but they've had to invest like $85T to build a rotation and half them sit on the IL for most of the season.

I'm sure every team in baseball would love to replicate the success the Guardians have had in developing pitchers (seemingly out of nowhere).  Very few organizations can and/or have though - and I do think it becomes cyclical - as there are other factors involved.

[jaysblue]

3 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

When was the last time you felt the Jays were good - or even adequate at developing pitchers?  

AA drafted A LOT of pitchers.  Stro, Sanchez and Osuna had impact and Thor was traded, but clearly he had to trade for and/or sign Josh Johnson, Dickey, Price, Buehrle, Happ, Estrada, Hawkins, Morrow, Delabar, Santos, etc.  He certainly wasn't able to create a pitching development factory.  JP Ricciardi didn't do much of anything well.  Gord Ash?  

I think it's a fair criticism to suggest Atkins has fallen short on the draft/development side of things, but this has been an issue for the Jays for decades.  But I think a lot of teams struggle with it - or at least struggle to do it consistently.  Heck - even the Dodgers kinda suck at developing pitchers recently.  They have like 9 aces and none of them were drafted by the Dodgers (Yama, Sho, Glasnow, Skubal, Snell, Sasaki, etc.).   They've developed Wrobleski and Sheehan, who are both back of the rotation arms, but they've had to invest like $85T to build a rotation and half them sit on the IL for most of the season.

I'm sure every team in baseball would love to replicate the success the Guardians have had in developing pitchers (seemingly out of nowhere).  Very few organizations can and/or have though - and I do think it becomes cyclical - as there are other factors involved.

That's fair, and I agree this definitely predates Atkins. The Jays haven't really been a true pitching-development factory under any regime for a long time. AA probably came the closest simply because he drafted so many arms. Stro, Sanchez, Osuna and Boyd all came through that system, with Thor obviously being traded before reaching Toronto. And while Morrow was acquired, the Jays deserve some credit for helping turn him into a very effective starter for 2-3 years when he was healthy.

Even before that, JPR had Marcum, while Romero gave them 2-3 genuinely strong seasons before everything fell apart. And going back to Ash, you had Halladay, Carpenter and Escobar, with McGowan drafted late in that era and developing under JPR.

So I completely agree this isn't some uniquely Atkins-era problem. The Jays have struggled to consistently develop pitching for decades. Where I still think the criticism is fair, though, is that Atkins came from an organization that was arguably the best in baseball at finding and developing pitching, and after more than a decade here, with far more resources and a state-of-the-art development complex, Toronto still hasn't really created a sustainable pitching pipeline.

That doesn't mean the standard should be Cleveland or even Tampa. Very few organizations can consistently do what they do, and you're right that even the Dodgers have had to spend enormous amounts externally on pitching. But that's also why I think this remains one of the fairer criticisms of Atkins. Not that he failed to turn Toronto into Cleveland, but that after this much time and investment, they still haven't become particularly good at producing a steady stream of useful MLB starters and relievers.

And to be fair to Atkins, acquiring starting pitching really hasn't been an issue. Gausman, Cease and Bassitt were real strong FA additions. Ray gave them an excellent season-plus after being acquired, and trades for guys like Berrios (earlier on) worked out pretty well. So far, Soriano hasn't looked too bad, but I still think he's more of a #3/4 when it comes to a Postseason rotation. They've generally been able to build a respectable rotation by going outside the organization, so Atkins deserves credit in that area. 

[Spanky__99]

Pat Gillick says hi... 😜

[hanton]

I didn't know Sanchez was picked up by the dbacks

[Spanky__99]

25 minutes ago, hanton said:

I didn't know Sanchez was picked up by the dbacks

Yeah, to replace LGJ.

[Brownie19]

Ex. Blue Jay Brian Wolfe passed away today at the age of 45.  RIP

[Forever92]

Watched Dave Stewart interview on Facebook.. When he was released by Phillies he was a mess. Oakland changed his career. 

[AMS528]

Gabriel Moreno lived up to that best prospect in baseball billing this year. Managed to put together everything including health. 

5.2 fWAR. Underlying hitting stats were good. Defense was good. Still just 26 as well. 

[Olerud363.354]

7 hours ago, AMS528 said:

Gabriel Moreno lived up to that best prospect in baseball billing this year. Managed to put together everything including health. 

He was a weird best prospect in baseball.   In 2021 he would have been a legit best prospect in baseball given his numbers, but he hurt his thumb and missed 3 or 4 months. 

In 2022 he wasn't at 'best prospect in baseball' level but I think the guys ahead of him graduated and they hadn't re-rated up and comers, so there was a few weeks he was #1, but not entirely legit. 

Honestly if he hadn't hurt his thumb they could have traded him for a haul, or explored a move to 3b which may have worked out.   

[Brownie19]

Hoffman

2025: 15 HRs allowed, 1.99 HR/9

2026: 4 HRs allowed, 0.55 HR/9

I remember suggesting the HR's allowed were a statistical anomaly.  I checked one of my bold predictions was that he'd have <4 HRs allowed.  I think John predicted 3 as well.  So close!

[Spanky__99]

3 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Hoffman

2025: 15 HRs allowed, 1.99 HR/9

2026: 4 HRs allowed, 0.55 HR/9

I remember suggesting the HR's allowed were a statistical anomaly.  I checked one of my bold predictions was that he'd have <4 HRs allowed.  I think John predicted 3 as well.  So close!

It is an anomaly, but I still think this guy was straight fire, Birds got a good return.

[Pendleton]

 

[hanton]

Gabriel Moreno

2023 post season press conferenced Mark Shapiro when asked about the trade

"..you can't evaluate a trade in the short term you gotta give it 4 or 5 years.."

 

We know the trade was trash but does anyone still think it was even a necessary trade?

[R.O.]

But isn't Kirk good, though?

In 78 games, Kirk is at 2.8 fWAR

Basically, what I am saying is: to get the best out of both of them, they need to play a starter workload.

[Laika]

33 minutes ago, hanton said:

Gabriel Moreno

2023 post season press conferenced Mark Shapiro when asked about the trade

"..you can't evaluate a trade in the short term you gotta give it 4 or 5 years.."

 

We know the trade was trash but does anyone still think it was even a necessary trade?

Necessary is a weird word 

They had Kirk, Jansen, and Moreno 

Nowhere for all three 

Only a long term spot for one 

And they had no long term CF 

Kirk is shaped like Danny Devito so he probably was hard to trade at that time, and get good value 

Jansen was solid but not worth much with limited control 

Who knows what other trades were even possible at the time 

What is the alternative to trading - converting Moreno to 3B? 

[Laika]

Since Toronto is a big market team now and they will sign free agents and extend players, we will see this forever 

They will lean towards trading good prospects rather than make room for all of them and take the performance risk 

In four years we may very well regret the Soriano  Nimmala trade just like this Moreno Varsho deal 

It's not a bad thing though. Think about how many top prospects the Dodgers have to give away or use in trades. Miguel Vargas...

[hanton]

23 minutes ago, R.O. said:

But isn't Kirk good, though?

In 78 games, Kirk is at 2.8 fWAR

Basically, what I am saying is: to get the best out of both of them, they need to play a starter workload.

I'm a fan of that bat but not much else, his framing #s are less relevant now now that we have ABS, some of his other dee numbers are trending in the wrong direction.   It's hindsight I guess but I remember at the time many of us projected that Moreno would turn into a star - he has

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

What is the alternative to trading - converting Moreno to 3B? 

Yep.  It is a weird sad world.  If Moreno didn't get the thumb injury he probably has twice the trade value, and maybe more insentive to move him to third.  

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, hanton said:

Gabriel Moreno

2023 post season press conferenced Mark Shapiro when asked about the trade

"..you can't evaluate a trade in the short term you gotta give it 4 or 5 years.."

 

We know the trade was trash but does anyone still think it was even a necessary trade?

Of course it was necessary, they needed a starting CF with a ton of depth at the C position, the move was fine and was certainly not trash, we went to the PS and were 2 outs away from a WS title. C'mon man, it was a wash at worst. This flex gets an F.

[max silver]

1 hour ago, hanton said:

I'm a fan of that bat but not much else, his framing #s are less relevant now now that we have ABS, some of his other dee numbers are trending in the wrong direction.   It's hindsight I guess but I remember at the time many of us projected that Moreno would turn into a star - he has

The importance of framing has barely been reduced by the ABS system. Kirk and Valenzuela stole a ton of strikes for their pitchers and as teams only receive two ABS challenges per game they are very cautious about wasting them on borderline calls and as such framing has continued to be a huge part of the game.

[Pendleton]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

 

What is the alternative to trading - converting Moreno to 3B? 

Keystone Kirk 

[Spanky__99]

14 minutes ago, max silver said:

The importance of framing has barely been reduced by the ABS system. Kirk and Valenzuela stole a ton of strikes for their pitchers and as teams only receive two ABS challenges per game they are very cautious about wasting them on borderline calls and as such framing has continued to be a huge part of the game.

Our catching is #1 in the MLB, this is a weird flex to fit a narrative.

[max silver]

11 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

Our catching is #1 in the MLB, this is a weird flex to fit a narrative.

Yeah the catching situation was the least of the Blue Jays worries this season. Once Kirk regained full strength in the broken thumb he was a key driving factor behind the club's run up the wildcard standings.

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, hanton said:

I'm a fan of that bat but not much else, his framing #s are less relevant now now that we have ABS, some of his other dee numbers are trending in the wrong direction.   It's hindsight I guess but I remember at the time many of us projected that Moreno would turn into a star - he has

He's literally in the 100% percentile in blocking...

15% above average hitter who's one of the best in baseball in blocking and framing.  

He's one of the very best catchers in baseball.

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, hanton said:

I'm a fan of that bat but not much else, his framing #s are less relevant now now that we have ABS, some of his other dee numbers are trending in the wrong direction.   It's hindsight I guess but I remember at the time many of us projected that Moreno would turn into a star - he has

Id argue his framing numbers are even more important with ABS since the challenges are limited.

[abola2121]

Call me the devil, but Varland's market value will never be as high as it is right now. They should most certainly be open to the idea of dealing him this offseason if a franchise-changing prospect package is on the table.