Former Blue Jays Thread

[Spanky__99]

14 hours ago, Olerud363.354 said:

hopefully he doesn't get a chance to see if his fixes worked. 

Why's that?

[Spanky__99]

The Gasman was rocked today by the Nats(very good hitting team), though 1 walk and 7K's through 4 and a third of an inning is good.

[G-Snarls]

40 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

The Gasman was rocked today by the Nats(very good hitting team), though 1 walk and 7K's through 4 and a third of an inning is good.

 

[Spanky__99]

Nice to see Kay turn his career around, he has a RA9-WAR of 1.8, sliderguy's right man, they have an elite pitching team over their on the Southside...

 

Model Type:

Stuff+

---

Location+

---

Pitching+

Partial SeasonsPreseason ProjectionsIn-Season ProjectionsMinor LeaguesSpring TrainingMLB Regular SeasonNPB

Season	Team	Level	Stf+ FA	Stf+ SI	Stf+ FC	Stf+ FS	Stf+ SL	Stf+ CU	Stf+ CH	Stf+ KC	Stf+ FO	Stuff+	Location+	Pitching+
2020	TOR	MLB	94		132			91	75			91	98	92
2021	TOR	MLB	101		123		102	90	76			100	99	100
2022	TOR	MLB	90				96	61				90	82	75
2023	2 Tms	MLB	93				108		102			100	86	88
2026	CHW	MLB	95	110	102		110		103			104	102	107
Total	- - -	MLB	96	110	106		109	90	94			101	100	102

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, Spanky__99 said:

Nice to see Kay turn his career around, he has a RA9-WAR of 1.8, sliderguy's right man, they have an elite pitching team over their on the Southside...

 

Model Type:

Stuff+

---

Location+

---

Pitching+

Partial SeasonsPreseason ProjectionsIn-Season ProjectionsMinor LeaguesSpring TrainingMLB Regular SeasonNPB

Season	Team	Level	Stf+ FA	Stf+ SI	Stf+ FC	Stf+ FS	Stf+ SL	Stf+ CU	Stf+ CH	Stf+ KC	Stf+ FO	Stuff+	Location+	Pitching+
2020	TOR	MLB	94		132			91	75			91	98	92
2021	TOR	MLB	101		123		102	90	76			100	99	100
2022	TOR	MLB	90				96	61				90	82	75
2023	2 Tms	MLB	93				108		102			100	86	88
2026	CHW	MLB	95	110	102		110		103			104	102	107
Total	- - -	MLB	96	110	106		109	90	94			101	100	102

Did the White Sox do it though? Or did Japan?

[Orgfiller]

1 hour ago, Spanky__99 said:

Nice to see Kay turn his career around, he has a RA9-WAR of 1.8, sliderguy's right man, they have an elite pitching team over their on the Southside...

 

Model Type:

Stuff+

---

Location+

---

Pitching+

Partial SeasonsPreseason ProjectionsIn-Season ProjectionsMinor LeaguesSpring TrainingMLB Regular SeasonNPB

Season	Team	Level	Stf+ FA	Stf+ SI	Stf+ FC	Stf+ FS	Stf+ SL	Stf+ CU	Stf+ CH	Stf+ KC	Stf+ FO	Stuff+	Location+	Pitching+
2020	TOR	MLB	94		132			91	75			91	98	92
2021	TOR	MLB	101		123		102	90	76			100	99	100
2022	TOR	MLB	90				96	61				90	82	75
2023	2 Tms	MLB	93				108		102			100	86	88
2026	CHW	MLB	95	110	102		110		103			104	102	107
Total	- - -	MLB	96	110	106		109	90	94			101	100	102

Using his RA9-WAR is a weird way of avoiding showing that he's outperforming all the non raw ERA metrics like FIP, xFIP, and even xERA. He's been a 1 fWAR pitcher over 120 innings, good for him for saving his career but not exactly looking like the rest of the league missed out on a steal of a contract or anything.

Feels like he would be better suited as a multi inning reliever where his fastball can play up more, and he can be mostly fastball/slider with the changeup keeping RHH off balance.

[Spanky__99]

8 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Did the White Sox do it though? Or did Japan?

A bit of both I'm sure, the last 6 weeks he's been killing it, as their #5.

 

[Spanky__99]

Just now, Orgfiller said:

Using his RA9-WAR is a weird way of avoiding showing that he's outperforming all the non raw ERA metrics like FIP, xFIP, and even xERA. He's been a 1 fWAR pitcher over 120 innings, good for him for saving his career but not exactly looking like the rest of the league missed out on a steal of a contract or anything.

I like RA9 for pitchers sue me... who said he was a steal of a contract, I was congratulating an ex-Jay brosoff?

[Orgfiller]

4 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

I like RA9 for pitchers sue me... who said he was a steal of a contract, I was congratulating an ex-Jay brosoff?

He's been pretty mid though, I feel like just saying his ERA has been serviceable underscores how relatively unimpressive he's been. Like I said though, good for him for turning his career around.

[Spanky__99]

6 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

He's been pretty mid though, I feel like just saying his ERA has been serviceable underscores how relatively unimpressive he's been. Like I said though, good for him for turning his career around.

The chart of his + stats are pretty sexy though, for a back end arm. 107 pitch+ is pretty good.

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

The chart of his + stats are pretty sexy though, for a back end arm. 107 pitch+ is pretty good.

Looks like he's switched up to the new "in thing" with pitchers in featuring the 3 fastballs (4seam, sinker, cutter) at relatively the same rate with 1 breaker and an offspeed to for good measure. 

Feels like he may be getting just a weeeee bit fortunate based on his savant page, but... hey cant begrudge a guy for evolving and making his way back to the bigs. 

[John_Havok]

John Berti retired

Santiago Espinal signed by the D'Backs to a minor league deal presumably to help handle depth in Marte's absence.

[Brownie19]

Otto Lopez has cooled off a ton as of late.  Just a 91 wRC+ since June 15th and just 99 wRC+ since May 10th.  Down to 114 on the season.  He's obviously still having a great season, but it's inflated by a hot start that was buoyed by an unsustainable BABIP.  

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Otto Lopez has cooled off a ton as of late.  Just a 91 wRC+ since June 15th and just 99 wRC+ since May 10th.  Down to 114 on the season.  He's obviously still having a great season, but it's inflated by a hot start that was buoyed by an unsustainable BABIP.  

what's the babip running in that cold/true talent stretch?

[max silver]

2 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Otto Lopez has cooled off a ton as of late.  Just a 91 wRC+ since June 15th and just 99 wRC+ since May 10th.  Down to 114 on the season.  He's obviously still having a great season, but it's inflated by a hot start that was buoyed by an unsustainable BABIP.  

I think this is largely the result of a 6 week slump or so. Lopez's month by month wRC+ values are as follows and this current slump is protracted/severe enough to drag down his season numbers back to any date you care to choose.

Mar/Apr 133 wRC+
May 115 wRC+

June 150 wRC+

July 110 wRC+

August 43 wRC+

You can see instantly that it's a bogus framing to suggest that Lopez has somehow been struggling since a point in May or June as each month saw an overall offensive contribution that was solidly above league average. If you dig down a little further you can see that Lopez was in the midst of what appeared to be a breakout season as he was sitting at a stellar 144 wRC+ on July 9, and the wheels have completely fallen off essentially from that point moving forward. You could certainly argue that Lopez was the beneficiary of a bit of good fortune offensively as he had enjoyed a .387/.344 wOBA/xwOBA split (.043) up until that point. That's still a solid offensive contributor as in this season a .344 wOBA correlates to a range of 105-120 wRC+ or thereabouts as I don't believe there's a direct conversion factor between the two systems.

Much as it largely seems to be the case that hitters on a run of extended good results often enjoy a bit of good fortune it conversely seems to be true that struggling hitters often underperform compared to their expected statistics. During Lopez's extended run of futility from July 10-present of a godawful 35 wRC+ his wOBA/xwOBA split of .223/.279 (-.056) suggests there's quite a bit of bad fortune present during the slump. 

[Stangstag]

33 minutes ago, max silver said:

I think this is largely the result of a 6 week slump or so. Lopez's month by month wRC+ values are as follows and this current slump is protracted/severe enough to drag down his season numbers back to any date you care to choose.

Mar/Apr 133 wRC+
May 115 wRC+

June 150 wRC+

July 110 wRC+

August 43 wRC+

You can see instantly that it's a bogus framing to suggest that Lopez has somehow been struggling since a point in May or June as each month saw an overall offensive contribution that was solidly above league average. If you dig down a little further you can see that Lopez was in the midst of what appeared to be a breakout season as he was sitting at a stellar 144 wRC+ on July 9, and the wheels have completely fallen off essentially from that point moving forward. You could certainly argue that Lopez was the beneficiary of a bit of good fortune offensively as he had enjoyed a .387/.344 wOBA/xwOBA split (.043) up until that point. That's still a solid offensive contributor as in this season a .344 wOBA correlates to a range of 105-120 wRC+ or thereabouts as I don't believe there's a direct conversion factor between the two systems.

Much as it largely seems to be the case that hitters on a run of extended good results often enjoy a bit of good fortune it conversely seems to be true that struggling hitters often underperform compared to their expected statistics. During Lopez's extended run of futility from July 10-present of a godawful 35 wRC+ his wOBA/xwOBA split of .223/.279 (-.056) suggests there's quite a bit of bad fortune present during the slump. 

So what im gathering here is that Lopez is basically a Gimenez clone on a rookie contract.

Valuable player even if he only hits for 90 wRC+

[max silver]

38 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

So what im gathering here is that Lopez is basically a Gimenez clone on a rookie contract.

Valuable player even if he only hits for 90 wRC+

I think that Lopez has a very good shot to be a far better hitter than Gimenez with Gimenez ultimately being a better defender. Perhaps they could largely produce similar overall WAR results but would likely go about it differently. 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

I think this is largely the result of a 6 week slump or so. Lopez's month by month wRC+ values are as follows and this current slump is protracted/severe enough to drag down his season numbers back to any date you care to choose.

Mar/Apr 133 wRC+
May 115 wRC+

June 150 wRC+

July 110 wRC+

August 43 wRC+

You can see instantly that it's a bogus framing to suggest that Lopez has somehow been struggling since a point in May or June as each month saw an overall offensive contribution that was solidly above league average. If you dig down a little further you can see that Lopez was in the midst of what appeared to be a breakout season as he was sitting at a stellar 144 wRC+ on July 9, and the wheels have completely fallen off essentially from that point moving forward. You could certainly argue that Lopez was the beneficiary of a bit of good fortune offensively as he had enjoyed a .387/.344 wOBA/xwOBA split (.043) up until that point. That's still a solid offensive contributor as in this season a .344 wOBA correlates to a range of 105-120 wRC+ or thereabouts as I don't believe there's a direct conversion factor between the two systems.

Much as it largely seems to be the case that hitters on a run of extended good results often enjoy a bit of good fortune it conversely seems to be true that struggling hitters often underperform compared to their expected statistics. During Lopez's extended run of futility from July 10-present of a godawful 35 wRC+ his wOBA/xwOBA split of .223/.279 (-.056) suggests there's quite a bit of bad fortune present during the slump. 

You're just cherry picking different dates than I was.  My numbers are factual and don't lie - he's been bad since June 15th and just league average since May 10th.  You want to slice those number down into 1 month intervals?  Go for it, but Otto Lopez hasn't gone from someone with B2B 92 and 86 wRC+ seasons to some 140 wRC+ stud.  True talent as he enters his prime is likely a 100 wRC+ bat.

Start of Season to May 9th:  148 wRC+, .411 BABIP  (165 PAs)

May 10th to now: 99 wRC+, .302 BABIP (386 PAs)

Still a very good player, but he's no superstar.

[Spanky__99]

He's pretty good fellas.

[hanton]

He made some mechanical changes.

https://www.si.com/mlb/marlins/otto-lopez-transformation-baseball-best-pure-hitter

Let's wait and see, could be the league making adjustments

[hanton]

...just hit a double over Durans head to the base of the wall

[hanton]

He's also 7th overall OAA (SS)

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

You're just cherry picking different dates than I was.  My numbers are factual and don't lie - he's been bad since June 15th and just league average since May 10th.  You want to slice those number down into 1 month intervals?  Go for it, but Otto Lopez hasn't gone from someone with B2B 92 and 86 wRC+ seasons to some 140 wRC+ stud.  True talent as he enters his prime is likely a 100 wRC+ bat.

Start of Season to May 9th:  148 wRC+, .411 BABIP  (165 PAs)

May 10th to now: 99 wRC+, .302 BABIP (386 PAs)

Still a very good player, but he's no superstar.

Did you bother to read what I read? Lopez is in the midst of a slump that's bad enough that decreasing his overall seasonal numbers back to any random starting point that you choose. Lopez hasn't been "bad" since June 10th as that's a completely illogical starting point and it's obvious that you did little to no research before choosing this date. Lopez actually experienced an excellent stretch of games from June 10th until July 9th when he actually started to fall off, as he produced a stellar 168 wRC+ in this period. But you are trying to make a bogus case that Lopez was somehow "bad" for that stretch of games when he managed to provide 1.8 FWAR to his team. Unlike your dates mine aren't arbitrary as I examined the game logs to find the period when the results fell off of the table and hence my declaration that Lopez has been slumping badly for approximately 6 weeks. I'm not going to make any declarations of what Lopez is going to produce for the rest of the season as I don't have a crystal ball in my possession, but he did produce excellent results at the plate for over 3 months of the season before falling on hard times.

[Omar]

Gasman had a good outing last night

[John_Havok]

On 8/25/2026 at 8:10 AM, Omar said:

Gasman had a good outing last night

Was listnening to the post game last night and he stated that they picked up on the Diamondbacks hitters just sitting on the splitter with 2 strikes, so he just laid the fastballs in low all night. 22 called strikes with the fastball I think and 4 of the Ks were looking, all on fastballs 

[Laika]

Eric Lauer got rocked and is now on the IL with elbow soreness 

Classic E Lau to not take responsibility for being bad and to instead lie about being hurt. Pathetic 

[glory]

Meanwhile, Dub Gleed is 3-5 tonight with a HR (11th in AA, 19th total).

[John_Havok]

On 9/3/2026 at 6:38 PM, glory said:

Meanwhile, Dub Gleed is 3-5 tonight with a HR (11th in AA, 19th total).

And 250k in international money. Every cent there counts in a big way to find the next Kirk