Former Blue Jays Thread

[Brownie19]

Imagine hitting .321 and still just being a league average hitter. That .400 BABIP doesn't seem sustainable.

[Stangstag]

Well, it just means they should have received better value for him. Or traded a different catcher.

 

Of course that's easy to say and harder to do. They probably tried everything all offseason and ended up taking the best deal they could get.

 

They still kind of got f***ed though, in hindsight. It's not an amazing look on Atkins. He should have had some leverage given the market. The f***ing Cardinals chose to pay a non-catcher $90M to catch, rather than trade fair value for Danno. How does that happen? Bizarre.

 

For the Cards, i’d assume Optics. With Molina leaving they had to go out and get a high-profile guy or they would’ve got raked over the coals.

 

Its really unfortunate the Pirates had good C prospects or else we likely would’ve traded for Reynolds.

 

Anyways I still think Varsho will be a solid player for us and he’s here for 3 more years. Kirk is better than Moreno right now and I don’t care what 2 months of stats are saying.

 

You guys are overreacting

[Spanky__99]

wRC+ of 54 against RHP... Woof!

[Spanky__99]

Imagine hitting .321 and still just being a league average hitter. That .400 BABIP doesn't seem sustainable.

 

It doesn't does it.

[Spanky__99]

I agree with Laika.

 

At the time of the trade, the thought was Moreno wasn't going to make an impact in the short term right away, therefore Kirk and Jansen, who are proven, are more valuable to the Jays over the next two seasons. There was more risk with Moreno if he didn't develop into a solid starting catcher both offensively and defensively given the Jays window to contend.

 

At this point, we're seeing Moreno hitting extremely well - yes most hits are singles but he's hitting .321 with a .746 OPS and that's with very little power to show so far. Alongside with his very strong defense in the early going. Imagine if he starts hitting for more power whether later this season or further down the road and continues to provide high batting averages, then he's looking like a real stud behind the plate.

 

Varsho (who I still believe in) and Kirk/Jansen (I believe in both as well) have been awful to start the season. I expect all three to bounce back.

 

Right now, the way Moreno has started his career in Arizona and if he continues on an upward trajectory, it's looking like he was the catcher to keep because of his long term potential and since he's making an impact already in the short term. So right now, his successful start + long term upside and Lourdes successful start are tilting the trade in favor of Arizona. Doesn't mean it was a bad trade or awful trade from the Blue Jays. As well, we don't know if the D'Backs preferred Moreno over Kirk or did the Blue Jays offer Moreno etc.

 

If the Jays get 4-5 WAR out of Varsho every season, I'll take that. If Moreno develops some power and becomes a 4-5 WAR catcher, whereas Jansen/Kirk are only 2-3 WAR guys, then yeah not a great use of resources, though again we don't have a transcript of the trade discussions and who Arizona preferred so it's a moot point.

 

Overall, the trade I think does need more time obviously before we declare a clear winner. Right now it's tilting towards Arizona but yes that could change if Varsho and Kirk/Jansen both get hot and Moreno/Lourdes slow down. Still a lot of baseball left and as well still a couple more seasons before making a final conclusion.

 

I agree with Laika, then proceeds to talk out of both sides of his mouth, nice fence sitting there bro.

[max silver]

Many top catching prospects in the mold of Moreno end up not being impact players or even average players. Look at Keibert Ruiz or Knizner.

 

Part of what made the trade ostensibly fair was the risk that Moreno would be useless in the short term to a contending team. But as the weeks tick on and he looks like an MLB average catcher, or better, right now, that risk evaporates. That tilts the equation on the trade heavily.

 

It's healthy to be open minded and change your opinions over time.

 

I'm not buying into Moreno just yet. His offensive numbers are looking a bit like a mirage, as he's rocking a .398 BABIP at the moment without peripherals to back it up. His ground ball rate is nearly 60%, so it appears as though his impressive at a glance batting average is largely empty and largely dependent on ground balls finding holes. He has displayed minimal power and rarely walks, so the xWOBA is all of .298 vs actual of .326 so he may eventually see a correction in his results.

 

According to Statcast he's below average both in framing and blocking, so the bulk of his defensive value is from throwing runners out on the bases. Eventually teams will stop running on him so this will limit the defensive impact he's able to make by eliminating baserunners, and that will leave most of his value coming from singles at the plate.

[Spanky__99]

Well, it just means they should have received better value for him. Or traded a different catcher.

 

Of course that's easy to say and harder to do. They probably tried everything all offseason and ended up taking the best deal they could get.

 

They still kind of got f***ed though, in hindsight. It's not an amazing look on Atkins. He should have had some leverage given the market. The f***ing Cardinals chose to pay a non-catcher $90M to catch, rather than trade fair value for Danno. How does that happen? Bizarre.

 

They tried trading the other guys in the off-season couldn't get proper value, you said it yourself, man.

 

Varsho 7.1 WAR is basically 1.66 seasons

 

4.4 per season

 

If Arizona wasn’t trading Corbin Carroll then there may not have been a better CF trade target out there

 

This is when we simply turn on Moreno

 

He’s a noodle bat that will take three years to figure out how to homer

 

And he’s not as athletic as people said.

 

Varsho had 4.6 WAR in 2022

Played at the same pace in 2021

 

Destroyed AA at 22 without striking out much

 

They get his four prime seasons

 

Perfect roster fit. Left handed CF who is also the emergency catcher so you can DH Kirk all the time.

 

Could be more upside I don’t think it’s set in stone that he will have whiff issues like in his short career so far

 

This is a fun trade because you get to see so many people ignore defense and WAR in favour of batting average and the undying and limitless promise of prospects

 

Pleeeease, homie. 6 weeks in and you're out, sounds to me you're getting fooled by a SS.

[Olerud363]

Right now the trade is only a failure if Varsho is really a .220 and Moreno is a .320 hitter, and maybe there is some worry there with 175 PAs of Varsho data to add to his first 3 seasons, and Moreno now being a .320 hitter through almost 200 PAs.

 

Logic dictates that Varsho's .250 bapip and Moreno's .398 and Kirk's .250 and Gurriels .330 will all move closer together and all 4 players will look different. Will be interesting to follow...l

[Laika]

I'm not buying into Moreno just yet. His offensive numbers are looking a bit like a mirage, as he's rocking a .398 BABIP at the moment without peripherals to back it up. His ground ball rate is nearly 60%, so it appears as though his impressive at a glance batting average is largely empty and largely dependent on ground balls finding holes. He has displayed minimal power and rarely walks, so the xWOBA is all of .298 vs actual of .326 so he may eventually see a correction in his results.

 

According to Statcast he's below average both in framing and blocking, so the bulk of his defensive value is from throwing runners out on the bases. Eventually teams will stop running on him so this will limit the defensive impact he's able to make by eliminating baserunners, and that will leave most of his value coming from singles at the plate.

 

If they stop running on him it does not logically decrease his defensive value! It just might decrease his measurable defensive value if CS count is part of the equation. It's hard to measure "choosing not to run because the C has a cannon"

 

I dunno, hitters hit.

 

2020-2021 in the Venezuela winter league hit .373

2021 MiLB hit .367

2021 AFL hit .329

2022 MiLB hit .315

2022 MLB hit .319

2023 MLB is hitting .321

 

He might just be a guy who runs a .350 BABIP all the time because of batted ball profile. Not all ground balls are created equal. Some good hitters are able to go with pitches and spray their groundballs all around, leading to high batting averages.

 

If anything, arrow up on Moreno's offense because he is surviving without accessing any of the power or patience he showed a bit of in the minors. He had 9% walk rates at times down there. He had 8 HR in 32 games in 2021 in AA and 12 HR in 82 games in 2019. As he matures I could see him being more like, 20% above league average or better as a hitter. Maybe something like Alex Verdugo?

[Olerud363]

Maybe the .220 average makes him look fatter but Kirk looks more out of shape than ussual, and I remember discussions during 2020 (Vlad) about real out of shape guys have a higher ground ball rate because they are out of shape and bat speed is a bit slower, and because the gut itself can effect swing mechanics. Anyone remember this? Anything to that.

[Laika]

They tried trading the other guys in the off-season couldn't get proper value, you said it yourself, man.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pleeeease, homie. 6 weeks in and you're out, sounds to me you're getting fooled by a SS.

 

6 weeks is a small sample but not a meaningless, tiny sample!

 

+ watching the players play.

 

+ the emotional pain of this current Blue Jays season.

[Laika]

Maybe the .220 average makes him look fatter but Kirk looks more out of shape than ussual, and I remember discussions during 2020 (Vlad) about real out of shape guys have a higher ground ball rate because they are out of shape and bat speed is a bit slower, and because the gut itself can effect swing mechanics. Anyone remember this? Anything to that.

 

Vlad, Kirk, Manoah

 

at some point you have to wonder if there are systemic issues in the organization when it comes to nutrition and exercise

[Spanky__99]

Right now the trade is only a failure if Varsho is really a .220 and Moreno is a .320 hitter, and maybe there is some worry there with 175 PAs of Varsho data to add to his first 3 seasons, and Moreno now being a .320 hitter through almost 200 PAs.

 

Logic dictates that Varsho's .250 bapip and Moreno's .398 and Kirk's .250 and Gurriels .330 will all move closer together and all 4 players will look different. Will be interesting to follow...l

 

Varsho's sporting a 120 wRC+ in May, I'm not worried about him at all. It certainly will be an interesting follow, but in a vacuum that trade was fine for both clubs.

[Jonn]

Varsho's sporting a 120 wRC+ in May, I'm not worried about him at all.

 

You should be. He’s a glove with occasional pull side pop.

[John_Havok]

Vlad, Kirk, Manoah

 

at some point you have to wonder if there are systemic issues in the organization when it comes to nutrition and exercise

 

When i get my nutrition degree I'll get hired on and right the ship.

[Spanky__99]

You should be. He’s a glove with occasional pull side pop.

 

K.......

[Olerud363]

Vlad, Kirk, Manoah

 

at some point you have to wonder if there are systemic issues in the organization when it comes to nutrition and exercise

 

I remember back in 2020 looking at Video of Vlad in 2020 hitting a 360 foot homer compared to his Montreal homer in 2018 when he was in better shape, and it just seemed obvious his swing was way less explosive.

 

Then obviously in 2021 he was in better shape and back to the explosive swing with iconic 115 mph homers...

 

Kirk right now seems like he's just got a slow out of shape swing, different than mid last year where he looked in better shape with a nice quick swing and 110 mph homers occasionally... maybe nothing to it and just a slump not a difference in fitness between 2022 and 2023... not sure.

[Jonn]

 

Only one word to describe Gurriel and Morenos contributions on the Dbacks so far. Dynamic.

[John_Havok]

Only one word to describe Gurriel and Morenos contributions on the Dbacks so far. Dynamic.

 

Whats really interesting is that with his current numbers, he'd still be hitting 6th everyday behind Springer, Bo, Vlad, Chappy and Belt (maybe 5th ahead of Belt...).... but Varsho is pencilled into 3rd and 4th daily

[Spanky__99]

*sighs*

[BigCecil]

Both Varsho/Moreno still have that new car smell to their respective teams.

 

LGJ is hot with 7 HR - 1 yr before FA. Most assume, and I do too, that ARZ wouldn't take Kirk. LGJ was a sweetener. The trade rationale was sound I think.

 

We can't just pick a point in time to look at numbers and pre suppose upside for Varsho and assume Moreno has little.

 

If Varsho is a 2 ish WAR guy as projected I'll be a bit disappointed honestly. If his bat is league average his D needs to be plus.vHis D numbers are off from '22. If Moreno has a forever noodle his D will have to be plus. I have a feeling we will be discussing this one for years! lol

 

My friend in Scottsdale is sure thrilled with the deal so far. His first take was that they lost it.

[Jonn]

Varsho is everything the Jays needed a young controlable left-handed hitting OF with pop. But who they ultimately traded to fill that need is what will hurt the most. Its really a failing on player development. If you developed prospects internally you don’t have to make those types of trades. You also don’t have to fill your entire Rotation in Free Agency.

[Stangstag]

They tried trading the other guys in the off-season couldn't get proper value, you said it yourself, man.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pleeeease, homie. 6 weeks in and you're out, sounds to me you're getting fooled by a SS.

 

I thought Laika was one of the smarter guys here but now I’m realizing that’s not the case

[Stangstag]

Both Varsho/Moreno still have that new car smell to their respective teams.

 

LGJ is hot with 7 HR - 1 yr before FA. Most assume, and I do too, that ARZ wouldn't take Kirk. LGJ was a sweetener. The trade rationale was sound I think.

 

We can't just pick a point in time to look at numbers and pre suppose upside for Varsho and assume Moreno has little.

 

If Varsho is a 2 ish WAR guy as projected I'll be a bit disappointed honestly. If his bat is league average his D needs to be plus.vHis D numbers are off from '22. If Moreno has a forever noodle his D will have to be plus. I have a feeling we will be discussing this one for years! lol

 

My friend in Scottsdale is sure thrilled with the deal so far. His first take was that they lost it.

 

Right and 6 weeks shouldn’t change anybody’s opinion.

 

This is a trade that can’t be fully evaluated until like 3-4 years from now.

 

And people really gotta stop worrying about “winning” or “losing” the trade. Trades can be even or teams can take a bit less return on a trade if they’re dealing from a position of strength and the potential suitors don’t fit.

 

End of the day it very likely turns out to be a solid trade for both teams.

[BigCecil]

Right and 6 weeks shouldn’t change anybody’s opinion.

 

This is a trade that can’t be fully evaluated until like 3-4 years from now.

 

And people really gotta stop worrying about “winning” or “losing” the trade. Trades can be even or teams can take a bit less return on a trade if they’re dealing from a position of strength and the potential suitors don’t fit.

 

End of the day it very likely turns out to be a solid trade for both teams.

 

I reported on what my friend said and how he looked at it then and now. I was surprised at his initial reaction. Just one fan who knew Varsho and didnt know Moreno. Its anecdotal and means f*** all really.

 

Its what what we do on this Board. We discuss, debate, fight, agree. Most love to talk in terms of winning and losing deals. Its all over sports. Its normal. Its going to be a long time before we know how all this worked out.

 

I agree with your sentiments. In 2/4 years we'll have a real idea.

[Brownie19]

Varsho is everything the Jays needed a young controlable left-handed hitting OF with pop. But who they ultimately traded to fill that need is what will hurt the most. Its really a failing on player development. If you developed prospects internally you don’t have to make those types of trades. You also don’t have to fill your entire Rotation in Free Agency.

 

What is this nonsense? By developing Jansen, Kirk and Moreno, we were able to make this trade in the first place. You say this like good teams never have to make trades. Like the Yankees didn't have to trade for Bader, or the Dodgers didn't need to trade for Betts, Turner, etc.

 

And lots of winning teams fill out their rotation with FA's.

[glory]

I think down the road there will be a real debate about whether the Jays traded the right catcher (Moreno instead of Kirk), but otherwise, the trade was a logical “use a surplus to get a need” trade. Maybe it will look like an overpay if Moreno pans out quickly, Kirk continues to look like the powerless fatty he’s looked like for about 5 months now (July-Sept 2022, April-May 2023), and Varsho isn’t a league average bat, but even if Varsho is a 100-110 wRC+ bat and a good/great defensive CF, then he should give the Jays exactly what they traded for. Anything more than that and the Jays will be very happy.

[John_Havok]

I think down the road there will be a real debate about whether the Jays traded the right catcher (Moreno instead of Kirk), but otherwise, the trade was a logical “use a surplus to get a need” trade. Maybe it will look like an overpay if Moreno pans out quickly, Kirk continues to look like the powerless fatty he’s looked like for about 5 months now (July-Sept 2022, April-May 2023), and Varsho isn’t a league average bat, but even if Varsho is a 100-110 wRC+ bat and a good/great defensive CF, then he should give the Jays exactly what they traded for. Anything more than that and the Jays will be very happy.

 

It doesnt matter if they traded the "right" catcher. They traded the catcher that Arizona wanted to get the trade done. That makes him the right catcher to trade.

 

Can't analyze a trade saying they should have traded X player instead of Y.

[G-Snarls]

I think down the road there will be a real debate about whether the Jays traded the right catcher (Moreno instead of Kirk), but otherwise, the trade was a logical “use a surplus to get a need” trade. Maybe it will look like an overpay if Moreno pans out quickly, Kirk continues to look like the powerless fatty he’s looked like for about 5 months now (July-Sept 2022, April-May 2023), and Varsho isn’t a league average bat, but even if Varsho is a 100-110 wRC+ bat and a good/great defensive CF, then he should give the Jays exactly what they traded for. Anything more than that and the Jays will be very happy.

 

Plus there's no way of knowing if the deal gets done with Kirk as the centrepiece. It might have been Moreno or GTFO.

[BigCecil]

It doesnt matter if they traded the "right" catcher. They traded the catcher that Arizona wanted to get the trade done. That makes him the right catcher to trade.

 

Can't analyze a trade saying they should have traded X player instead of Y

 

Correct, but you can assess whether it was an overpay or not - Sure as hell not 8 weeks in and always with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.