World Baseball Classic thread

[Spanky99]

Joey Meneses... Big Fly!

[Spanky99]

Berrios having 6/116 left on his contract is terrifying.

 

He's not injured, if hurt than I'd drop a terrifying on that. Last year was certainly concerning.

[Stangstag]

Berrios having 6/116 left on his contract is terrifying.

 

Really was the worst possible time to extend him honestly. In hindsight of course. At the time the deal looked great.

 

Probably could’ve had him back for like 4/60 if they let him go to free agency

[Spanky99]

Who's the SP for Canada tomorrow?

 

Nice looking arm. I have no clue who's starting tomorrow though.

 

This kid, hasn't pitched above A ball with good numbers though. I pray for this lad...

 

https://www.mlb.com/player/mitch-bratt-683352?stats=career-r-pitching-minors&year=2023

[WryNGinger]

Canada with 17 hits and took 16 walks....insane s***-show of a game. Still scored 18.

[Spanky99]

Meneses goes yard again, lol.

[Stangstag]

Mexico laying a beatdown on USA right now lol. US pitching kinda suxx

[philly30]

Our pitchers suck

[Grant77]

USA offense has been surprisingly s*****. It's full of prime Hall of Famers, you expect a lot more.

[Spanky99]

Good ole Rowdy... get Rekt USA.

 

Now Canada gets a steamed USA team tomorrow night.

[Stangstag]

Good ole Rowdy... get Rekt USA.

 

Now Canada gets a steamed USA team tomorrow night.

 

The US/Britain game was kinda tight. We mercy’d them lol.

 

Gonna demolish US tomorrow

[Spanky99]

The US/Britain game was kinda tight. We mercy’d them lol.

 

Gonna demolish US tomorrow

 

Would be nice.

[G-Snarls]

Mexico laying a beatdown on USA right now lol. US pitching kinda suxx

 

They could have brought 10-12 #1/2 caliber starters but just didn't

[Spanky99]

They could have brought 10-12 #1/2 caliber starters but just didn't

 

No, they have to commit. Same has happened with Canada and Cuba.

[JaysAllMighty]

Big game tonight for our 19 years old starting pitcher Mitch Bratt!

[Laika]

Bratt is a decent prospect. The Jays' equivalent would be, I dunno, Dahian Santos.

[Grant77]

They could have brought 10-12 #1/2 caliber starters but just didn't

 

That's why the tournament will never be a success until they change the timing/incentives to make players care.

 

I like watching Joey Meneses crush Brady Singer, but 99% of people have no interest.

[John_Havok]

Korea 22

China 2

 

5 inning mercy rule.

 

Yikes

[Brownie19]

That's why the tournament will never be a success until they change the timing/incentives to make players care.

 

I like watching Joey Meneses crush Brady Singer, but 99% of people have no interest.

 

I agree Grant. I thought I'd be excited to watch this, but I couldn't even make it through 1 inning of the Canada/GB game. I'd rather watch the Jays spring training games.

[The_DH]

Is Berrios tipping his pitches again? Isn't that why he started using the mouthguard?

 

Yep, he needs to get his a$$ back and work on not tipping. He's "over pitching" -- he needs to chill it down a bit.

[Grant77]

Yep, he needs to get his a$$ back and work on not tipping. He's "over pitching" -- he needs to chill it down a bit.

 

I can't decide if this is a bigger failure of the coaching staff or Berrios himself.

 

This is purely anecdotal, but it seems to me like most pitchers get caught tipping in a couple of starts each year and rectify it pretty quickly. Certain teams obviously have a tell on a guy sometimes too (Joe Kelly and the Jays for example), but it never gets to the point that every team knows.

[Stangstag]

I agree Grant. I thought I'd be excited to watch this, but I couldn't even make it through 1 inning of the Canada/GB game. I'd rather watch the Jays spring training games.

 

The game was exciting idk what you’re complaining about

[Stangstag]

I can't decide if this is a bigger failure of the coaching staff or Berrios himself.

 

This is purely anecdotal, but it seems to me like most pitchers get caught tipping in a couple of starts each year and rectify it pretty quickly. Certain teams obviously have a tell on a guy sometimes too (Joe Kelly and the Jays for example), but it never gets to the point that every team knows.

 

Its so odd. Watched some replays of the Sandander homerun and it wasn’t even a bad pitch. Curveball at the shins/below the zone and he just cranked it. Its like he knew what was coming.

 

Also FWIW there are several ex-twins on Venezuela and also guys like Cabrera and Sal Perez who played in the AL central for years and faced Berrios a bunch. Maybe they know something.

[The_DH]

I can't decide if this is a bigger failure of the coaching staff or Berrios himself.

 

This is purely anecdotal, but it seems to me like most pitchers get caught tipping in a couple of starts each year and rectify it pretty quickly. Certain teams obviously have a tell on a guy sometimes too (Joe Kelly and the Jays for example), but it never gets to the point that every team knows.

 

In one spring start, he started off overpitching. Then he chilled out and it went better. The pitching coach or catcher or whoever probably cooled him down. Nobody there in Puerto Rico to do that. SO GET HIS A$$ BACK TO DUNEDIN AND GET IT FIXED!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Grant77]

In one spring start, he started off overpitching. Then he chilled out and it went better. The pitching coach or catcher or whoever probably cooled him down. Nobody there in Puerto Rico to do that. SO GET HIS A$$ BACK TO DUNEDIN AND GET IT FIXED!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

He does have a certain Hall of Fame manager who is renowned for his skills with pitchers. I don't mind him being there because it might give him a different perspective on things and I want the WBC to succeed. I'll always support Jays players going there.

[Laika]

Do we know for a fact that he is tipping?

 

After thinking about it for many months and watching him stink yesterday, at this point I kind of just think his stuff crossed a tipping point of effectiveness.

 

Like, you know how a guy with a fringe fastball can sometimes be good at 91 but gets hammered at 89 and his career is over? The Hyun-Jin Ryu line in the sand. There might be something similar, but less extreme, happening with Berrios.

 

His 4 seamer has not really lost any velocity or spin since 2016 but is HAS lost effectiveness. Here is the whiff% on his 4S and Sinker since 2017:

4S: 26.2%, 23.7%, 23.9%, 23.5%, 21.5%, 18.9%

Sinker: 13.3%, 15.3%, 12.6%, 18.2%, 14.6%, 11.7%

 

When you look at a model like Stuff+ it says the 4S is now a below average stuff pitch. It's not that it has gotten worse, it's probably that the league has gotten better, and hitters are therefore better at hitting fastballs like this. He has okay command of the fastball (103 and 104 location+ on the 4S and sinker) but maybe it's not good enough to overcome what is now a below average four seamer. So maybe it's like... his 55 FA is now a 45, effectively?

 

His curveball still grades out well by Stuff+. In fact, it's basically tied for the best single pitch on the 2022 staff, along with Stripling's CH and Guasman's Split. But Berrios has a close to average 102 Location+ on his curveball while Gausman and Stripling married 109 and 111 Location+ figures to their carrying pitches.

 

So the picture is:

 

1. Below average 4S with average-ish command

2. Average sinker with average-ish command

3. Bad changeup?

4. Good (or really good) curveball with average-ish command.

 

I think it can be hard to live on a good curveball alone, depending on the pitch. It's a bit different from trying to live on a good tight slider. Sometimes even with good command it's hard to land it for strikes, for instance.

 

Okay, let's look at guys with good curveballs and bad fastballs and try to parse out how they avoid sucking. 115 stuff+ curves with fastballs under 95 stuff+.

 

Wainwright: 135, 75

He is 32% curveballs, 25% cutters, 28% sinkers. He has mostly abandoned the four seamer.

The cutter gets decent grades still (106 stuff+) but the curveball is simply in a different class.

 

Kyle Wright: 127, 82 (96 sinker)

He is 34% curveballs, 20% four seamers, 24% sinkers.

His changeup gets a 100 stuff+ and he throws it 15% of the time, which is a difference from Berrios.

His curveball grades out even better than Berrios' but this might be a guy for Berrios to look at.

 

Morton: 127, 85

Another elite curveball, like Waino and Wright. He is 33% 4S and 38% curves.

 

Kelly: 122, 85

A bigger arsenal guy. He is 4S, cutter, sinker, change, curve and he throws them all between 13.5% and 29.9% of the time.

Also has better command; a 105 overall Location+ is almost two standard deviations above average.

 

Kluber: 120, 83

He is cutter, sinker, curve (sometimes called slider).

 

Musgrove: 120, 82

Has fastball, cutter, slider, curve, and seldom used sinker and change.

 

 

JOSE BERRIOS NEEDS A CUTTER.

Kluber is 30%+ cutters.

Musgrove is 20% cutters.

 

Kluber and Musgrove might be the best comparisons for Berrios if you just look at basic fastball quality and curveball ("slurve") grades. Both of these dudes have developed GOOD cutters. They also have some other tricks, like better changeups, but they don't throw them that much.

 

Option B would be for Berrios to turn his "slurve" into two distinct breaking pitches. A slider/sweeper and curve.

 

He might also consider toning down the % of four seamers.

 

He should be a Sinker/Cutter/Curve/Slider guy.

[Brownie19]

The game was exciting idk what you’re complaining about

 

Sorry - I didn't enjoy watching Cal Quantril walk a bunch of nobody's. I actually turned it off before Canada came to the plate and went back to watching the Players. I guess if the Players wasn't on, I may have left the Canada game on - but only because the Jays spring training game wasn't on TV.

[Laika]

Can we talk about how stupid it was to use Brash while up 10 runs?

 

Good lord, Ernie.

[Captain_Obvious]

Can we talk about how stupid it was to use Brash while up 10 runs?

 

Good lord, Ernie.

 

He might have wanted to trigger the mercy rule. Had GB scored, he could have needed two extra innings from pitching.

[wilko]

He might have wanted to trigger the mercy rule. Had GB scored, he could have needed two extra innings from pitching.

 

Hey Ernie!