Offense 2023: Better, same, or worse than 2022

[G-Snarls]

Teo, Gurriel gone

 

Varsho, Belt added

 

Hope for a better Vladdy year

 

Better L/R balance

 

How do you feel about the offense now?

[Jimcanuck]

I clicked "Better" not because the starting 9 are better than last year (they are roughly the same), but because the bench is much stronger.

[wilko]

I'd say it will be better overall.

[Jonn]

This team is much deeper, more balanced, and has more ways to hurt you. I think overall it should be better.

[Spanky99]

Offense: About the same.

Defense: Far better

Baserunning: Far better

Depth: Far better

Overall: Much better, a handful of Wins.

[Brownie19]

What ball is MLB going to use this year???

 

Also need to consider the new shift rules are going to increase offense. If we're just comparing runs scored this year v. last year - I think it's going up. Will we be 2nd in MLB in wRC+ and Off? The odds seem unlikely....so how we're going to compare them matters a lot.

[Spanky99]

What ball is MLB going to use this year???

 

Also need to consider the new shift rules are going to increase offense. If we're just comparing runs scored this year v. last year - I think it's going up. Will we be 2nd in MLB in wRC+ and Off? The odds seem unlikely....so how we're going to compare them matters a lot.

 

Aside from just the shift, there's the 3 times a pitcher can throw over, bigger bags to increase SB threats, it's a good point, in saying that. My vote suxxxxx now. I say better.

[guylaroche5]

about the same to me, dat D tho..

[John_Havok]

For total run output, I'd say it will relatively the same.

 

However, I expect a more consistent offense that doesn't go to sleep for a week to 10 days at a time, then goes red hot for 2 series.

[jaysblue]

I voted better.

 

The lineup is way more balanced now than it was last season. A solid mix of guys who can make contact, have power, take a walk and some speed. Like Havok said above, the lineup will be more consistent and won't go in a huge slump and then get red hot for 2-3 series. So I don't think they'll be prone to long funks as they were last season/ Their roster depth is greatly improved so even if an injury or two simultaneously, they will be able to get by and be competitive.

 

I expect Vladdy to hit better than he did last season. Chapman in a contract year so I think he could put up monster numbers.

 

Overall, I take this lineup over 162 game season over last years lineup.

Edited January 10, 2023 by jaysblue

[Angrioter]

No Tapia or Zimmer

 

 

 

Better by far

[Krylian]

Similar offence

[Dick_Pole]

What's defined as better? More runs scored than last year? Better rate stats? They already swept the board finishing first on all of the rate stats last year. Going to be hard to top that. I voted the same. I think they OPS lower but with some better luck/more clutch hitting have about the same or slight improvement on runs scored. The improvement here comes from pitching and defense.

[Grant77]

I'm confident that this team will have a lower wRC+.

[John_Havok]

I'm confident that this team will have a lower wRC+.

 

Could be, but if its within 5 points... kind of push really.

[WryNGinger]

I voted better. Varsho and Belt both project to have better numbers in Rogers stadium. No Tapia or Zimmer as Ang points out...big win. Shift change should help our current roster more than it hurts. Net = better

[Spanky99]

I'm confident that this team will have a lower wRC+.

 

Why?

[TheHurl]

Teo, Gurriel gone

 

Varsho, Belt added

 

Hope for a better Vladdy year

 

Better L/R balance

 

How do you feel about the offense now?

 

I assumed based on Runs scored. I think they will be better. But the league will likely be better. wRC+ same or slightly lower

[Grant77]

Could be, but if its within 5 points... kind of push really.

 

That's a pretty big difference as far as an entire team goes. I'm also confident that the defense and pitching will be better, so we'll see where that lands us.

[Grant77]

Why?

 

Replacing Hernandez with Kiermaier is about as big of a downgrade as a team can make (offensively) so that's a lot to make up for. Varsho projects to be a little worse than Gurriel was, but we can call that a push.

 

I think Jansen will regress a bit and we will probably have more injuries. We'll need a good season from Belt and some progress from guys like Vlad just to break even, let alone be better.

[Laika]

I vote better but I think it's a push.

 

They do lose a bit on the sticks by swapping out Teo. Also, like him or not Tapia is probably a slightly better hitter than Kiermaier.

 

But I think Vlad has a better year and negates all that. Also, baserunning should be a lot better.

 

I also like Merrifield to be a league average hitter.

[John_Havok]

That's a pretty big difference as far as an entire team goes. I'm also confident that the defense and pitching will be better, so we'll see where that lands us.

 

I think the run differential will be the telling stat this season. Runs scored should be relatively close to last year, but the run prevention should be markedly better.

 

Remember, wRC+ is relative to league average if the run environment goes up, the Jays could feasibly score about the same amount of runs and still drop in wRC+ depending on the rest of the league.

[Brownie19]

Replacing Hernandez with Kiermaier is about as big of a downgrade as a team can make (offensively) so that's a lot to make up for. Varsho projects to be a little worse than Gurriel was, but we can call that a push.

 

I think Jansen will regress a bit and we will probably have more injuries. We'll need a good season from Belt and some progress from guys like Vlad just to break even, let alone be better.

 

Don't forget that Tapia's at bats likely go to Belt...

[Eat My Shatkins]

I voted about the same.

 

If Vlad goes back to being a ~160 wRC+ / 6+ fWAR player it will be better.

 

I think the bench is better already, and I think they will still add another OF with a RHB which will improve it even more.

[43211234]

I voted worse simply because they were the second best offense in baseball last year. Despite Vlad taking a step back a lot of things went right offensively. It is probably a safer bet that they won't be so higher ranked at the end of 2023.

[Spanky99]

Replacing Hernandez with Kiermaier is about as big of a downgrade as a team can make (offensively) so that's a lot to make up for. Varsho projects to be a little worse than Gurriel was, but we can call that a push.

 

I think Jansen will regress a bit and we will probably have more injuries. We'll need a good season from Belt and some progress from guys like Vlad just to break even, let alone be better.

 

Belt makes up a lot of that difference. With the added baserunning I'd expect it to stay similar. Plus the run environment should be better with all the new rules being implemented. Jays were 2nd overall last year, so I can see some regression, but I don't thing it's going to be as much a drop as you expect. Meh, we're a much better team thus far overall.

[Omar]

Depending what you think "better" means, the 2023 roster will be tougher to pitch to on balance alone.

 

2023 LH bats

Belt

Biggo

Keirmaier

Varsho

Barger (potential)

 

2022 LH Bats

Zimmer

Bradley Jr.

Tapia

Biggio

[max silver]

I voted the offence should be about the same, but I think it has a decent chance to be even better than in 2022. The team has loaded up on left handed batters just in time for the shift ban. If Vlad gets back to the 2021 version and Bo continues the improvement he showed in the second half of last season this offence could be pretty scary.

 

Varsho made some swing changes last year that enabled him to improve his results at the plate rather significantly in the second half so he has a shot to have his best season to date. He won't likely ever make up for the loss of Teo's bat fully but between him and Belt that loss should be largely mitigated.

[Grant77]

Don't forget that Tapia's at bats likely go to Belt...

 

Perhaps some of them will, but I don't expect Belt to play in the outfield. His at-bats can only come at the expense of Kirk, Jansen, and Guerrero Jr. We also need to consider that Belt is 35 and hit something like Tapia in 2022.

 

The person taking Tapia's role probably isn't on the team yet in my opinion.

[Grant77]

Belt makes up a lot of that difference. With the added baserunning I'd expect it to stay similar. Plus the run environment should be better with all the new rules being implemented. Jays were 2nd overall last year, so I can see some regression, but I don't thing it's going to be as much a drop as you expect. Meh, we're a much better team thus far overall.

 

I'm not really sure that he does. As I mentioned in the above post, all of Belt's at-bats will come at the expense of players who were really good last year. It's not like you just take Bradley Jr's plate appearances and assign them to Belt.

 

I never said how much I expected the offense to drop off, as that wasn't asked in the poll. I do agree, however, that the overall team is better.